MLB Battle

[gonzo1105]

Just now, boyst said:

Opinions vary

It’s not an opinion. An NFL coaching staff decided to keep a 6th round rookie LB on their roster all year. One that was competing for a SB. They obviously saw his play as disciplined and developable. If they didn’t he wouldn’t have made the roster. That’s a fact not an opinion 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

I like that you use that word patience. I think that sums up what I did not see last year, and it might be confusing to some. His hustle to the ball was genuine, but it seemed like he broke out of assignments, lost discipline on the overall scheme, and just played more like a backyard style ball that an actual piece of this defense.

 

Is built to be a symbiotic unit. As strong as their weakest link in every sense of the term. Losing Gap integrity, tell Richard responsibility, and the vision needed to play middle linebacker in this defense is very costly. This is something that people jumped all over Edmunds about but he is truly an athletic freak that allowed him to recover with not just his size but his quickness to react. The sharper I always criticized that he was too late to react or recognize the place.

 

Anyway, time will tell. And I hope I'm wrong. It's not like seeing preseason action of this guy last year is 100% the story but I am a pessimist in this regard

He barely played last year. How could have any opinion about him? He played 12 snaps on defense!

[boyst]

Just now, gonzo1105 said:

It’s not an opinion. An NFL coaching staff decided to keep a 6th round rookie LB on their roster all year. One that was competing for a SB. They obviously saw his play as disciplined and developable. If they didn’t he wouldn’t have made the roster. That’s a fact not an opinion 

Let's play a game:

1) NFL staff kept him on the roster all year: fact

2) they saw him as disciplined: unknown

3) they saw he was developmental: unknown (likely.... obviously true)

4) they wouldn't have put him on the roster: unknown (see Jaquan Johnson and Bobby Hart).

 

We do not know what the coaches thought. Perhaps because he was deemed coachable he was deemed worthwhile as a project. We don't know what they think.

 

Zoomers don't understand empirical fact anymore. It's weird.

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

He barely played last year. How could have any opinion about him? He played 12 snaps on defense!

In preseason I watched him. Some woman near us in Carolina was friends with him in college so I paid attention and rewatched some pre season games when I had nothing else to do in September.

[gonzo1105]

6 minutes ago, boyst said:

Let's play a game:

1) NFL staff kept him on the roster all year: fact

2) they saw him as disciplined: unknown

3) they saw he was developmental: unknown (likely.... obviously true)

4) they wouldn't have put him on the roster: unknown (see Jaquan Johnson and Bobby Hart).

 

We do not know what the coaches thought. Perhaps because he was deemed coachable he was deemed worthwhile as a project. We don't know what they think.

 

Zoomers don't understand empirical fact anymore. It's weird.

In preseason I watched him. Some woman near us in Carolina was friends with him in college so I paid attention and rewatched some pre season games when I had nothing else to do in September.

Bobby Hart was actually not bad as a 6th offensive lineman and Johnson was kept for his STs. 

What the hell is a zoomer. I actually had to look it up. I’m 38 years old lol. I worked in D1 football for Lance Leipold at Buffalo, a guy who knows talent if you can’t tell. I worked on his recruiting staff. I know an NFL scout for the Jets, Texans, and Bears that I used to work with. I know the Offensive line coach at South Dakota State, who was previously the TE coach there, who raved about Tucker Kraft last year to me which made me a fan of him. 
 

Coaches don’t keep undisciplined, uncontrollable  6th rounders. 

 

[In Summary]

I hope Floyd is legit this year.

[MJS]

5 hours ago, boyst said:

In preseason I watched him. Some woman near us in Carolina was friends with him in college so I paid attention and rewatched some pre season games when I had nothing else to do in September.

You are basing your entire opinion of a player based on limited preseason snaps in their rookie year?

 

Just brutal.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

It’s not an opinion. An NFL coaching staff decided to keep a 6th round rookie LB on their roster all year. One that was competing for a SB. They obviously saw his play as disciplined and developable. If they didn’t he wouldn’t have made the roster. That’s a fact not an opinion 

 

He is also a very good ST player.  That likely factored in. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I wouldn’t say battle. This is more like an argument.

[GunnerBill]

Let's take a step back slightly from "who will play MLB?" and think about the makeup of the linebacker room more generally:

 

What do we know:

1. The Bills under this regime have fluctuated between keeping 5 and 6 linebackers.

2. Last year they started with 6 on the roster and ended with 7 having added AJ Klein in-season.

3. Matt Milano is one of their best players and will be one of the 5/6 and start at WILL (I'm going to say WILL now for ease of reference but they do use him as the SAM in some true nickel looks whereas in their "base" Taron Johnson to all intents and purposes plays SAM).

4. The backup linebackers HAVE to play special teams. 

5. Tyler Matakevich is a Special Teams captain (their other one, Taiwan Jones, has moved on) and there are $0 cap savings associated with moving on from him. So I think we can pencil him in. 

6. I think it is a pretty safe assumption that, even though they have now reverted to their original post-draft position of "Williams is not competing at MLB", they are not cutting their most recent 3rd round pick and he will be Milano's backup. That means they have the WILL position covered.

 

Which probably gets us to: there are three spots up for grabs and four players competing: Terrel Bernard, Tyrel Dodson, AJ Klein and Braylon Spector.

 

From that group they are looking for their 2 best options at MLB. I suspect AJ Klein will get one of those spots as the vet insurance. The safe floor guy. Even if they tab someone else to start, if they have any doubt at all about their choice they will keep Klein. The only way Klein doesn't make it is if someone flat out just wins the job and is obviously the best player of the group, in which case they might feel secure enough with a developmental guy as the backup. But that feels like a long shot. 

 

That leaves it very likely as Bernard v Dodson v Spector. So what do we know about that battle:

1. The defensive depth chart last year was Dodson, Bernard, Spector. 

2. Special Teams usage last year was also Dodson, Bernard, Spector.

3. #2 is partly because Spector was the guy who was a healthy scratch most of the year. But ceiling wise he is the best STer.

4. Cutting Dodson offers $0 in cap savings. Bernard and Spector would offer $900k and $800k in savings respectively. 

5. Dodson is a one year contract. Bernard and Spector would both be cheap depth for a longer period. 

 

My view is you end up coming down to it is Dodson or Bernard, not both and then Spector as a STer who they still think they can develop some at LB (and is the option that gives them some size). Based on camp reports so far it seems like Dodson is the guy getting the most run with the 1st unit. I suspect that is another example of the Bills valuing familiarity and experience in the scheme. But then Bernard is a 2nd year player who they spent a 3rd rounder on. To this point the highest pick guy they have given up on in year two is Vosean Joseph, a 5th rounder, who was essentially beaten out by Dodson as an UDFA from the same class). If Bernard is the odd man out then a) that pick stands alone atop of the Beane Bust Tree and b) he would essentially be beaten out by Spector a 6th rounder from the same class. 

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by GunnerBill

[boyst]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

You are basing your entire opinion of a player based on limited preseason snaps in their rookie year?

 

Just brutal.

I am judging his 2022 season on his pre season play

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is also a very good ST player.  That likely factored in. 

This is also true

[CapeBreton]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

My view is you end up coming down to it is Dodson or Bernard, not both and then Spector as a STer who they still think they can develop some at LB (and is the option that gives them some size). Based on camp reports so far it seems like Dodson is the guy getting the most run with the 1st unit. I suspect that is another example of the Bills valuing familiarity and experience in the scheme. But then Bernard is a 2nd year player who they spent a 3rd rounder on. To this point the highest pick guy they have given up on in year two is Vosean Joseph, a 5th rounder, who was essentially beaten out by Dodson as an UDFA from the same class). If Bernard is the odd man out then a) that pick stands alone atop of the Beane Bust Tree and b) he would essentially be beaten out by Spector a 6th rounder from the same class. 

 

 

If it's close, Bernard may actually have some trade value around the league that the other guys don't have. I'm sure Beane could salvage a late round pick for Bernard if needed.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, CapeBreton said:

 

If it's close, Bernard may actually have some trade value around the league that the other guys don't have. I'm sure Beane could salvage a late round pick for Bernard if needed.

 

He may but I wouldn't say that's a given. He genuinely had very little buzz in the run up to the draft in 2023 and I think it is conceivable that if the Bills hadn't selected him he'd have lasted well into day 3. So this isn't a case where a consensus day 2 type flames out at his first stop and a lot of other teams who liked him in the draft think "worth a shot." This is a guy who the Bills probably took at least a round, maybe two, before other teams would have considered him. 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

From that group they are looking for their 2 best options at MLB. I suspect AJ Klein will get one of those spots as the vet insurance. The safe floor guy. Even if they tab someone else to start, if they have any doubt at all about their choice they will keep Klein.

 

They get the same outcome and insurance if they stash Klein on the PS. There is no chance of another team poaching him. If one of Dodson, Bernard, or Spector were cut, we would risk losing them on waivers. In a worst case scenario they could always add Klein to the active roster later in the season. I suspect that is the plan right now.

[SoCal Deek]

I find it hard to believe that a team that’s supposed to be competing for a Super Bowl is going to keep a guy simply because they drafted him a few spots above another guy on the roster. Not after watching them both in their facilities for over a year. Seems a bit petty to me. Now, I have zero knowledge of how either of these players is doing, but I’m sure the Bills staff has way more knowledge about them now then they did coming out of college. 

[Udubalum07]

Klein is the only one that hasn't gotten a chance with the 1s. I'm thinking they are looking to go young this year, and hopefully have a multi year cost savings at that spot. 

 

They will plan to put Klein on the practice squad and if somebody gets hurt then they can have h him activated. I do think that the other three would be picked up if cut. 

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

They get the same outcome and insurance if they stash Klein on the PS. There is no chance of another team poaching him. If one of Dodson, Bernard, or Spector were cut, we would risk losing them on waivers. In a worst case scenario they could always add Klein to the active roster later in the season. I suspect that is the plan right now.

 

Fair, but it is a spectrum IMO. From "really worried about the other options Klein stats" to "completely confident, we don't need Klein". They would need to be closer to the latter along that spectrum for the practice squad to be the way they go. Especially as I think you only get 3 free elevations don't you?

[PBF81]

17 minutes ago, Udubalum07 said:

Klein is the only one that hasn't gotten a chance with the 1s. I'm thinking they are looking to go young this year, and hopefully have a multi year cost savings at that spot. 

 

They will plan to put Klein on the practice squad and if somebody gets hurt then they can have h him activated. I do think that the other three would be picked up if cut. 

 

My thoughts as well.  Klein's a 32 year-old below average LB.  No significant cap hit and hasn't done much of anything in his most recent appearances.  

 

Does he qualify for the practice squad though?  

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 7/30/2023 at 10:43 PM, bills6969 said:

What are their Madden ratings?  That’s only way to settle this 

I’m guessing all in mid 60s low 70s.  Probably fair. The middle of the defense is going to be a weakness like never before this season. 

[HappyDays]

Dodson is apparently starting with the 1s today which breaks up the MLB rotation. Today would have been Spector's turn. Could mean he's out of the running, or could be random.

[HappyDays]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Especially as I think you only get 3 free elevations don't you?

 

Yeah but they could always add him to the active roster permanently if they needed to. Dodson, Bernard, or Spector they might lose to another team. Klein is safe on the PS. So it's less risky to leave him there and bring him up later in the season if it becomes necessary.