Doc Posted July 31, 2023 Posted July 31, 2023 Just now, without a drought said: Joel Wilson 6'4" 250 Jace Sternberger 6'4" 251 Dawson Knox 6'5" 254 Other Bills TEs, not much to see here. Kincaid is 6'4" and 240#. Quote
Beck Water Posted July 31, 2023 Posted July 31, 2023 (edited) 15 hours ago, PBF81 said: As stated, our "efforts" over his first five drafts after getting Allen include a revolving door of journeymen OL-men, a 2nd-round pick, and a late 3rd-round pick in five drafts. Cincy drafted a C in the mid-1st in '18, a Jonah Williams 11th overall in '19, and an OT in the 2nd in '21. I've done very detailed posts about this before. I'll try to recap below. And sorry, but I'm disinterested in PFF's offensive line rankings. People who actually play OL or have played OL in the NFL (like Eric Wood) roll their eyes at them. I wish I could find the interview Wood did about this - it's really a must-hear for anyone who is into this kind of analysis. I think a better way to look at it, is how the line enables the skill players to perform. My bottom line is this: the difference between spending adequate or good resources on OL, and insufficient effort - largely is a call made in hindsight depending upon whether or not those efforts actually succeed in producing a capable or good OL. If a player is performing at a high level, can we agree that it no longer matters where he was drafted? Example: today, Milano is not a measly 5th round draft expenditure; he's a top LB in the NFL. If we can't agree on that, there's nothing to talk about here, I'll just regretfully disagree with the logic and common sense of your analysis. But, if we can agree on that, then it follows that we can't just look at building an OL as an exercise in high draft picks and signing top FA. At times, Beane's efforts to field an OL have been wholly inadequate (2018). At other times, he has tried, and sometimes the results of his "try" have worked, but not been sustained - but he still tried, and with similar effort to expended elsewhere. Again, it's not just about high draft picks or big $$. Let's look at KC as a case in point. Pat Mahomes was handed the keys to a top-performing offense in 2018: #5 or 6 in the NFL in 2017 and very efficient. #9 for rush yards but 23 for rush attempts; #7 for passing yards but #17 for passing attempts. Their OL was: LT 4 yr Eric Fisher (1st round) LG 2nd yr Bryan Witzmann (UDFA) Center 4 yr Zach Fulton (6th round) RG 3rd yr Laurent Duvarnay-Tardif (6th round) RT 6th yr Mitchell Schwartz (2nd round) So here we have a good performing OL - 5th in the league for NY/A passing, 2nd in the league for rush Y/A, with a QB most recognize as above average (but not by much) in former #1 overall draft pick Alex Smith. What did they do next? They replaced the entire center of the line, but with whom? LG 4th year Cameron Erving (1st round Browns G/C/RT - but this guy was traded in training camp, he washed off his drafting team after 1 yr) C R Mitch Morse (2nd round) RG R Andrew Wylie (UDFA) I can hear it now - what an ABYSMAL expenditure of OL resources by GM Veach to put in front of their precious franchise 1st year starter - a guy who washed off his first team after a year for his struggling play and injury, a 2nd round rookie, and an UDFA. But the OL spearheaded the #1 offense and catapulted Mahomes to league MVP. It's an assessment of hindsight that the expenditure was adequate, it's not like Veach filled up the OL with 1st round picks and top FA. ---- Yes, Cincy drafted a C in the 1st in 2018. They moved him to LG the following year as part of the OL That Almost Wrecked Burrow, declined his 5th year option, and traded him to the NYG in his 4th year (2021) where he was credited with "a failure to protect the quarterback and establish any sort of efficient pass blocking" and replaced by former Bill and career journeyman Jon Feliciano in 2022. So I'm really not sure what your point is here - the Bengals "GM" gets credit for using a mid-1st round pick who doesn't work out, but Beane doen't get credit for signing a former 2nd round pick FA (Mitch Morse) who is one of the best players on our OL and has been a reliable C for us (knock wood) for 4 years now? Beane doesn't get credit for signing a journeyman in Jon Feliciano who plays well enough to replace Price at C for the playoff-team Giants, but the Bengals are somehow showing good effort by drafting the guy he replaced in their 1st, then trading him in his 4th year? Yes, Cincy drafted Jonah Williams in the 1st. He promptly missed all of his rookie season and half of his 2nd season. What would you say about that if it were the Beane and the Bills? "He drafted a player who can't stay healthy, he hasn't done enough", right? The Bengals did pick up his 5th year option, but he's playing RT not LT and they're rotating him at RT in training camp with....Cody Ford, drafted by the Bills in the 2nd round. C'mon Man. You can't just look at the draft pick, OK? That would almost be like saying the Bills built a great DL by drafting Aaron Maybin in the 1st in 2009 and Marcell Dareus in the 1st 2 years later. (Almost) You say they drafted a T in the 2nd in 2021, but Jackson Carman started 6 games at R. GUARD in 2021 and 0 games in 2022. Facts. The Bengals had the #8 Offense in the league last season. But it's not an effective run offense (despite how it looked against the Bills) - 29th in the league. Aren't you the one who pointed out that the Bills would be down around that territory if it weren't for Josh Allen, as a criticism? And it's very much built off the short passing game and YAC. 49% of Burrow's passing yards are YAC. And despite the focus on a quick-hit passing game, Burrows is still 6th in the league in sacks. It's a good offense, and the team has gone farther than we the last 2 years, but it's a very different offense that places different demands on the OL. And you know, I wouldn't exactly hold up the Bengals drafting as a great example of expending draft resources on OL to good effect or as a team that put great resources into building a stout OL in front of their precious franchise QB. Maybe that's just me. --------- OK so what has Beane done on OL? Well, in his own words for 2018, "I didn't do enough. We were limited by the cap, but I could have done more. I should have done more." So what did he do in 2019? He almost totally rebuilt the line between FA and draft. LT: Dion Dawkins (2nd round 2017). Only returning player. He's been overall Solid. (Picks made before the current regime count according to your examples) C : Mitch Morse was the big FA acquisition. He has also been Solid. RT: drafted Cody Ford in the 2nd round. He did not work out and is on his 3rd team, but apparently we're counting draft expenditures that didn't work out - and he's rotating at RT with the Bengals 1st round pick Jonah Williams, whom you name as an example of good high draft pick expenditure on OL LG: signed Quinton Spain, a 4 year starter for the Titans (who moved on to start 2 years for the Bengals - the team you extoll for their OL build?) RG: signed Jon Feliciano, correctly described as a 'journeyman' - but he was Bobby Johnson's "Guy". Every OL coach has a "Guy" they bring in to teach their techniques and be their wingman in the OL group when they're not around. It Is How It Is. And again - Feliciano isn't crap, he proved to be a capable backup C and started 15 games at C for the Giants last season. Depth/competition: Ty Nsekhe, a 6th year vet who had started 54 games for Washington The result was a much improved line that was able to give Allen some time to develop and #8 and rush yards. (Allen was the #3 rusher on the team) So what happened? For whatever reason, the Bills don't seem able to sustain good play from their acquisitions. Jon Feliciano tore his pec in 2020 and came to camp underweight and underperforming in 2021. I don't think those are things Beane could predict. Quinton Spain apparently had a beef when the team replaced him at LG with Cody Ford. Since Ford could barely lift his arm, and Spain moved on to start 2 years for the Bengals, he may have had a point. But game time roster and playing time decisions rest with the coaches, not Beane Daryl Williams was signed to replace Ford/Nsekhe at RT, and played very well at RT in 2020 - but then Something Happened and he looked like a mess in 2021. I'm not sure what's going on there. Maybe it was coaching? But it's always the intangible how a player will reeact once he "gets paid" as Spain and Williams did. I guess we'll see if Kromer is able to do a better job sustaining and building success on OL. Bottom line: while I would have liked Beane to do more (Boogie Basham instead of Creed Humphrey still chaps my grits), it's somewhat fictious to paint a picture where other teams have "done more" on OL because they used high draft picks (that actually didn't work out), while painting Beane has having done nothing or only scraps. Has he done enough this off season? Time Will Tell Edited July 31, 2023 by Beck Water 1 1 2 Quote
Beck Water Posted July 31, 2023 Posted July 31, 2023 3 hours ago, NewEra said: They said he would’ve been the DC- Did they say he would’ve been calling the defensive plays? In my unprofessional opinion- he left because he was to be stripped of the play calling and that’s a demotion. Why would anyone hire him as HC if he had the play calling stripped? Why would he want to stay. That’s embarrassing. I don’t think it had anything to do with 49. They did not. And your theory is certainly as credible as any and more than some, but the bottom line is, we just don't know. Like I said, what I put out there was just my opinion on one possible motivation for stepping down. 1 Quote
3rdand12 Posted July 31, 2023 Posted July 31, 2023 5 hours ago, Beck Water said: I've done very detailed posts about this before. I'll try to recap below. And sorry, but I'm disinterested in PFF's offensive line rankings. People who actually play OL or have played OL in the NFL (like Eric Wood) roll their eyes at them. I wish I could find the interview Wood did about this - it's really a must-hear for anyone who is into this kind of analysis. I think a better way to look at it, is how the line enables the skill players to perform. My bottom line is this: the difference between spending adequate or good resources on OL, and insufficient effort - largely is a call made in hindsight depending upon whether or not those efforts actually succeed in producing a capable or good OL. If a player is performing at a high level, can we agree that it no longer matters where he was drafted? Example: today, Milano is not a measly 5th round draft expenditure; he's a top LB in the NFL. If we can't agree on that, there's nothing to talk about here, I'll just regretfully disagree with the logic and common sense of your analysis. But, if we can agree on that, then it follows that we can't just look at building an OL as an exercise in high draft picks and signing top FA. At times, Beane's efforts to field an OL have been wholly inadequate (2018). At other times, he has tried, and sometimes the results of his "try" have worked, but not been sustained - but he still tried, and with similar effort to expended elsewhere. Again, it's not just about high draft picks or big $$. Let's look at KC as a case in point. Pat Mahomes was handed the keys to a top-performing offense in 2018: #5 or 6 in the NFL in 2017 and very efficient. #9 for rush yards but 23 for rush attempts; #7 for passing yards but #17 for passing attempts. Their OL was: LT 4 yr Eric Fisher (1st round) LG 2nd yr Bryan Witzmann (UDFA) Center 4 yr Zach Fulton (6th round) RG 3rd yr Laurent Duvarnay-Tardif (6th round) RT 6th yr Mitchell Schwartz (2nd round) So here we have a good performing OL - 5th in the league for NY/A passing, 2nd in the league for rush Y/A, with a QB most recognize as above average (but not by much) in former #1 overall draft pick Alex Smith. What did they do next? They replaced the entire center of the line, but with whom? LG 4th year Cameron Erving (1st round Browns G/C/RT - but this guy was traded in training camp, he washed off his drafting team after 1 yr) C R Mitch Morse (2nd round) RG R Andrew Wylie (UDFA) I can hear it now - what an ABYSMAL expenditure of OL resources by GM Veach to put in front of their precious franchise 1st year starter - a guy who washed off his first team after a year for his struggling play and injury, a 2nd round rookie, and an UDFA. But the OL spearheaded the #1 offense and catapulted Mahomes to league MVP. It's an assessment of hindsight that the expenditure was adequate, it's not like Veach filled up the OL with 1st round picks and top FA. ---- Yes, Cincy drafted a C in the 1st in 2018. They moved him to LG the following year as part of the OL That Almost Wrecked Burrow, declined his 5th year option, and traded him to the NYG in his 4th year (2021) where he was credited with "a failure to protect the quarterback and establish any sort of efficient pass blocking" and replaced by former Bill and career journeyman Jon Feliciano in 2022. So I'm really not sure what your point is here - the Bengals "GM" gets credit for using a mid-1st round pick who doesn't work out, but Beane doen't get credit for signing a former 2nd round pick FA (Mitch Morse) who is one of the best players on our OL and has been a reliable C for us (knock wood) for 4 years now? Beane doesn't get credit for signing a journeyman in Jon Feliciano who plays well enough to replace Price at C for the playoff-team Giants, but the Bengals are somehow showing good effort by drafting the guy he replaced in their 1st, then trading him in his 4th year? Yes, Cincy drafted Jonah Williams in the 1st. He promptly missed all of his rookie season and half of his 2nd season. What would you say about that if it were the Beane and the Bills? "He drafted a player who can't stay healthy, he hasn't done enough", right? The Bengals did pick up his 5th year option, but he's playing RT not LT and they're rotating him at RT in training camp with....Cody Ford, drafted by the Bills in the 2nd round. C'mon Man. You can't just look at the draft pick, OK? That would almost be like saying the Bills built a great DL by drafting Aaron Maybin in the 1st in 2009 and Marcell Dareus in the 1st 2 years later. (Almost) You say they drafted a T in the 2nd in 2021, but Jackson Carman started 6 games at R. GUARD in 2021 and 0 games in 2022. Facts. The Bengals had the #8 Offense in the league last season. But it's not an effective run offense (despite how it looked against the Bills) - 29th in the league. Aren't you the one who pointed out that the Bills would be down around that territory if it weren't for Josh Allen, as a criticism? And it's very much built off the short passing game and YAC. 49% of Burrow's passing yards are YAC. And despite the focus on a quick-hit passing game, Burrows is still 6th in the league in sacks. It's a good offense, and the team has gone farther than we the last 2 years, but it's a very different offense that places different demands on the OL. And you know, I wouldn't exactly hold up the Bengals drafting as a great example of expending draft resources on OL to good effect or as a team that put great resources into building a stout OL in front of their precious franchise QB. Maybe that's just me. --------- OK so what has Beane done on OL? Well, in his own words for 2018, "I didn't do enough. We were limited by the cap, but I could have done more. I should have done more." So what did he do in 2019? He almost totally rebuilt the line between FA and draft. LT: Dion Dawkins (2nd round 2017). Only returning player. He's been overall Solid. (Picks made before the current regime count according to your examples) C : Mitch Morse was the big FA acquisition. He has also been Solid. RT: drafted Cody Ford in the 2nd round. He did not work out and is on his 3rd team, but apparently we're counting draft expenditures that didn't work out - and he's rotating at RT with the Bengals 1st round pick Jonah Williams, whom you name as an example of good high draft pick expenditure on OL LG: signed Quinton Spain, a 4 year starter for the Titans (who moved on to start 2 years for the Bengals - the team you extoll for their OL build?) RG: signed Jon Feliciano, correctly described as a 'journeyman' - but he was Bobby Johnson's "Guy". Every OL coach has a "Guy" they bring in to teach their techniques and be their wingman in the OL group when they're not around. It Is How It Is. And again - Feliciano isn't crap, he proved to be a capable backup C and started 15 games at C for the Giants last season. Depth/competition: Ty Nsekhe, a 6th year vet who had started 54 games for Washington The result was a much improved line that was able to give Allen some time to develop and #8 and rush yards. (Allen was the #3 rusher on the team) So what happened? For whatever reason, the Bills don't seem able to sustain good play from their acquisitions. Jon Feliciano tore his pec in 2020 and came to camp underweight and underperforming in 2021. I don't think those are things Beane could predict. Quinton Spain apparently had a beef when the team replaced him at LG with Cody Ford. Since Ford could barely lift his arm, and Spain moved on to start 2 years for the Bengals, he may have had a point. But game time roster and playing time decisions rest with the coaches, not Beane Daryl Williams was signed to replace Ford/Nsekhe at RT, and played very well at RT in 2020 - but then Something Happened and he looked like a mess in 2021. I'm not sure what's going on there. Maybe it was coaching? But it's always the intangible how a player will reeact once he "gets paid" as Spain and Williams did. I guess we'll see if Kromer is able to do a better job sustaining and building success on OL. Bottom line: while I would have liked Beane to do more (Boogie Basham instead of Creed Humphrey still chaps my grits), it's somewhat fictious to paint a picture where other teams have "done more" on OL because they used high draft picks (that actually didn't work out), while painting Beane has having done nothing or only scraps. Has he done enough this off season? Time Will Tell Thats a lot of words Beck. And i enjoyed reading them all But i am pretty sure on this. You cant get your grits chapped. Many things can happen to grits. Some very good indeed ! And few ? not so much But chapped ? Have to call you out here. Go Bills Quote
PBF81 Posted July 31, 2023 Posted July 31, 2023 6 hours ago, Beck Water said: If we can't agree on that, there's nothing to talk about here, I'll just regretfully disagree with the logic and common sense of your analysis. But, if we can agree on that, then it follows that we can't just look at building an OL as an exercise in high draft picks and signing top FA. At times, Beane's efforts to field an OL have been wholly inadequate (2018). At other times, he has tried, and sometimes the results of his "try" have worked, but not been sustained - but he still tried, and with similar effort to expended elsewhere. Again, it's not just about high draft picks or big $$. I appreciate the time you took to put all that in writing. I did read it. Let's just defer to the above, I would say the same. LOL And no hard feelings, it's just a discussion ... GO BILLS!!!! However, I would add that if your take on our approach over the past five seasons, implicitly if not directly, made sense, then his latter round picks after rounds 2 and 3 (Ford and Brown) and discounting this year's draft which has yet to take the field, would have performed to some relevant level, which they most certainly have not, as even you say. We both know, to your arguments, that the better players are typically going to be found the higher the round, at all positions. That's not debatable. The odds go down dramatically for finding talent in the later rounds, where Beane has found very little but depth, and frankly, nothing much above average for depth there either. We do not have to discuss it, I'm simply pointing out that we haven't even tried to use top resources for OL, not even in free agency until this season with McGovern, who's good but hardly Will Wolford or Jim Ritcher. Out of 39 draft picks on Beane's watch, not counting this year's draft, we've selected 6 OL-men. Ford and Brown, one bust and one quite possibly on the way to be pending this season. Otherwise, Teller, whom he traded away, not a good look in the context of this conversation there. 7th-rounder Anderson from '21, already gone, 6th-rounder Tenuta, from last year's draft, already gone, and 5th-rounder Doyle from '21 likely gone this season. That's all we've spent on 5 positions, or 5 of 22 (23%) of the starting players, is 15% of our draft picks, with 2/3 of them (4 of the 6) having been in the mid-5th or later, and none of them starting except for Brown who's as close to being relegated to backup as he is to becoming an above-average starter at RT. I'm not sure how that supports your position though. I realize that there's a lot of overlap in our points, which is agreement, but again, when you have Allen, and he's clearly lacking protection season in and season out for several years, and your solution is 1-2 year journeyman free-agents and 2nd and late 3rd-round OL-men picked otherwise, with never a 1st-rounder in 6 years of drafting, it does suggest things. I hope that Torrence really is the road-grader that everyone says he is. Can't wait for the pads to go on to find out. Same for Kincaid, I really hope that he's "our Kelce." Anyway, I think we've skinned this cat pretty well. Thanks for the civil and respectful response!! Go BILLS!!!! Quote
freddyjj Posted August 1, 2023 Posted August 1, 2023 14 hours ago, Beck Water said: What did they do next? They replaced the entire center of the line, but with whom? LG 4th year Cameron Erving (1st round Browns G/C/RT - but this guy was traded in training camp, he washed off his drafting team after 1 yr) C R Mitch Morse (2nd round) RG R Andrew Wylie (UDFA) I can hear it now - what an ABYSMAL expenditure of OL resources by GM Veach to put in front of their precious franchise 1st year starter - a guy who washed off his first team after a year for his struggling play and injury, a 2nd round rookie, and an UDFA. But the OL spearheaded the #1 offense and catapulted Mahomes to league MVP. It's an assessment of hindsight that the expenditure was adequate, it's not like Veach filled up the OL with 1st round picks and top FA. Fact check. Except when injured and unavailable, Mitch Morse was the starting C for the Chiefs from 2015, his rookie year, through 2018. He signed with Bills as UFA in 2019. Quote
Beck Water Posted August 1, 2023 Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, freddyjj said: Fact check. Except when injured and unavailable, Mitch Morse was the starting C for the Chiefs from 2015, his rookie year, through 2018. He signed with Bills as UFA in 2019. I don't get your "Fact Check". In context, it should be clear I'm talking about the Chiefs here, in addressing the points of the OP I was discussing with. The point is, the Chiefs had a mere 2nd round pick in front of their rookie QB instead of drafting Billy Price in the 1st round like the Bengals (a guy who struggled, and was traded before the end of his 1st contract to a team that replaced him with Jon Feliciano) Though since you see the need for this I probsbly didn't write as clearly as I could have. Mitch Morse was NOT the starting C for the Chiefs in 2017, the first year I was talking about. He was injured. However, looking it up, he did start 5 games which is more than I thought. Point still stands. Edited August 1, 2023 by Beck Water Quote
Doc Posted August 1, 2023 Posted August 1, 2023 Mitch Morse had been the Chiefs’ starting center since his rookie season. He didn't start only due to injury. Quote
Beck Water Posted August 1, 2023 Posted August 1, 2023 13 hours ago, PBF81 said: I appreciate the time you took to put all that in writing. I did read it. Let's just defer to the above, I would say the same. "you would say the same", so wait. What I said was "the difference between spending adequate or good resources on OL, and insufficient effort - largely is a call made in hindsight depending upon whether or not those efforts actually succeed in producing a capable or good OL. If a player is performing at a high level, can we agree that it no longer matters where he was drafted? " So...you really want to make an argument that the Bengals have built a better OL for Burrow, because they drafted 2 OLmen in the 1st who didn't work out, and drafted a T in the 2nd round who started 6 games his rookie year at GUARD and none last season? Or that once a player is in the league, his draft position still matters? If you can't agree that signing a FA who was previously drafted in the 2nd and has been a reliable C for 4 years is a better move than drafting a C in the 1st who struggles, gets traded, and gets replaced by one of the "journeymen" you spoke of.....are you really being logical? Tor reprise, the question isn't what draft resources and $$ Beane has expended, it's whether he's built a functional line in front of Allen. At times the answer has been "N" (2018 was one example, last year arguably another). At times it's been "Y". It's certainly been as good a line at times as other teams who have expended much greater draft resources, at times. 13 hours ago, PBF81 said: However, I would add that if your take on our approach over the past five seasons, implicitly if not directly, made sense, then his latter round picks after rounds 2 and 3 (Ford and Brown) and discounting this year's draft which has yet to take the field, would have performed to some relevant level, which they most certainly have not, as even you say. I think to see if the approach "made sense" you have to look at the overall team building, not just the OL. And there's a fair point to be made that if the team acquires OLmen who they feel have proven ability for solid play, it's a "safer" approach than draft. As implied by my post, even top-of-the-1st round draft picks have something like a 50% success rate of being solid NFL players - not stars, solid NFL players. At the bottom where we've been drafting, it's more like 30% and pretty much the same as the 2nd round, last time I looked. And frankly, I would still maintain that where Beane didn't do enough last season is at WR, to replace Saunders and Beasley. He was counting on not one, but two backups to "step up" and live up to the big flashes they'd showin in certain games, and it didn't work - but even there, he did "belt and suspenders" with Jamison Crowder and drafting Shakir. But I also, as a team building philosophy, understand the logic of what he saw as the "big splash" need. I'm not doing Teller again. I've gone over the facts about Teller. I don't think anyone should be able to bring him up without answering a 3 Q pop quiz: 1) who did we keep instead of Teller, and why? 2) when after the trade did Teller become a regular starter for his new team? 3) when after the treade did Teller become a pro-bowl (not all pro) player? 17 minutes ago, Doc said: Mitch Morse had been the Chiefs’ starting center since his rookie season. He didn't start only due to injury. Obviously, I didn't write as clearly as I should have, but please try to understand the points I was making in context, and not just fixate on one thing Quote
PBF81 Posted August 1, 2023 Posted August 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, Beck Water said: "you would say the same", so wait. I'll get to the rest of your post in a bit, busy now. But no, I meant I would make the same or similar statement contrarily. 🙂 I'll catch up to this in a bit ... Quote
PBF81 Posted August 1, 2023 Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Beck Water said: "you would say the same", so wait. What I said was "the difference between spending adequate or good resources on OL, and insufficient effort - largely is a call made in hindsight depending upon whether or not those efforts actually succeed in producing a capable or good OL. If a player is performing at a high level, can we agree that it no longer matters where he was drafted? " So...you really want to make an argument that the Bengals have built a better OL for Burrow, because they drafted 2 OLmen in the 1st who didn't work out, and drafted a T in the 2nd round who started 6 games his rookie year at GUARD and none last season? Or that once a player is in the league, his draft position still matters? If you can't agree that signing a FA who was previously drafted in the 2nd and has been a reliable C for 4 years is a better move than drafting a C in the 1st who struggles, gets traded, and gets replaced by one of the "journeymen" you spoke of.....are you really being logical? This topic has some complexities to it, so we need to stay focused on one particular aspect of the discussion. I think that we're getting away from the original point that I made that you took issue with. Here's what I wrote that you took issue with; As stated, our "efforts" over his first five drafts after getting Allen include a revolving door of journeymen OL-men, a 2nd-round pick, and a late 3rd-round pick in five drafts. Cincy drafted a C in the mid-1st in '18, a Jonah Williams 11th overall in '19, and an OT in the 2nd in '21. Your next part touches on that so I'll comment further there. 2 hours ago, Beck Water said: Tor reprise, the question isn't what draft resources and $$ Beane has expended, it's whether he's built a functional line in front of Allen. On that we agree entirely. We also agree on the aforementioned above this, that it doesn't matter where a player is drafted if he's good. I'm not questioning that, I'm questioning two things, how many players were drafted to accomplish that, and how effectively were they drafted. Our history is not good as I listed it in a prior post. The methodology is what I would question, and that's more than a simple summary of what you said above. A friend of mine in a professional circle once criticized a heralded coach that had a pattern of trading his 1st-round picks for more picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, thereby employing a strategy of getting more good but not great picks. (as they are pervasively typically defined) As we discussed briefly already, everyone knows that it's more likely to get a great player in round 1 than in round 2, in round 2 than in round 3, etc. That's common sense that no one would argue with. Do you know which active coach I'm referring to? So we're really talking about two things then, both hinged on the approach. First, how many resources are put into it, and secondly, whether or not those resources are accomplishing the task at hand. That's true for any unit or side of the ball. In our case, we're talking about the OL. Again, your next part touches on the continuation so I'll comment further there. 2 hours ago, Beck Water said: At times the answer has been "N" (2018 was one example, last year arguably another). At times it's been "Y". It's certainly been as good a line at times as other teams who have expended much greater draft resources, at times. I think to see if the approach "made sense" you have to look at the overall team building, not just the OL. And there's a fair point to be made that if the team acquires OLmen who they feel have proven ability for solid play, it's a "safer" approach than draft. Here's the thing, we all know that to date our OL has been inadequate. That's pretty much the party-line even here. My entire comments on this thread began with someone challenging my statement that Beane hasn't been original in general in his approach to team building. I realize that's a broad statement and easy to pick apart, but the crux of it remains and a part of that also implies having done it successfully, which again, IMO is common sense as many coaches and GMs try "original" things resulting in cataclysmic failures, but that's hardly to be applauded. So the underlying assumption is that it's done successfully. I sarcastically commented that the one area where our approach (aka Beane, although it wasn't my intention to get into a lengthy discussion about Beane at this point in the season) was that we were original in that we were relying on low draft picks and journeymen 1-2 year free-agent signees to protect Allen and pave the way for our running game, both of which by majority opinion here and everywhere have been problematic. I will at this time even add to that our efforts in procurring WRs other than Diggs. Both of those things would support our generational franchise QB, but neither has been done optimally to say the least. Sans Diggs we'd be much worse. But my focus in on the Drafts and the results there, but even if we incorporate the free-agents, it's still far from optimal results. Consider all of the WRs we've brought in that haven't excelled. 2 hours ago, Beck Water said: As implied by my post, even top-of-the-1st round draft picks have something like a 50% success rate of being solid NFL players - not stars, solid NFL players. At the bottom where we've been drafting, it's more like 30% and pretty much the same as the 2nd round, last time I looked. That's something that I'd like to see the data on before arguing that. I'm sure there's a few such studies out there, if you find 'em and link 'em I'll read 'em and we can discuss further. Otherwise it's a lengthy exercise, but before challenging that, I'd ask you how you define "At the bottom where we've been drafting, ..." If you mean the 6th and 7th rounds, I couldn't disagree more. The odds are far less than 30% of drafting an above-average player in round 6 or 7. That much I know from having read past analyses. Off hand, 50% sounds in the ballpark for 1st-rounders. I'm also one that often challenges whether a player rated for round 1 should actually be there rather than in rounds 2 or 3. So I get it. Where the rubber meets the road in this exchange is in whether or not, methodology aside, we've properly and optimally built an OL. We haven't had an above-average OL in the past three seasons and then some. The only free-agent OL-man that we've signed is who you mentioned, Morse, and that was five years ago now. The rest of our efforts have done anything but achieve the goal that we agree upon. Some have been OK, but collectively we've never had an above-average much less top-10 OL, when we should, in order to protect Allen and enhance the running game toward that end. 2 hours ago, Beck Water said: And frankly, I would still maintain that where Beane didn't do enough last season is at WR, to replace Saunders and Beasley. He was counting on not one, but two backups to "step up" and live up to the big flashes they'd showin in certain games, and it didn't work - but even there, he did "belt and suspenders" with Jamison Crowder and drafting Shakir. But I also, as a team building philosophy, understand the logic of what he saw as the "big splash" need. We agree there. Still, the efforts fell short. The only free-agent WRs that we brought in that have been above-average were Diggs and Beasley in his role as a slot WR. Sanders, McKenzie, Kumerow, Brown, Roberts, Foster, Benjamin, Holmes, none of which were above-average, most below-average. So we can argue the MO, but we cannot really argue the results apart from Diggs & Beasley, which isn't a very big effort as a whole, particularly since Beasley's gone. Ironically I'm one of Davis' biggest apologists and IMO he's be one of our "best-value" draft picks under Beane if not the best. We can argue Allen, but his status as a 7th overall mitigates that aspect of it. 2 hours ago, Beck Water said: I'm not doing Teller again. I've gone over the facts about Teller. I don't think anyone should be able to bring him up without answering a 3 Q pop quiz: 1) who did we keep instead of Teller, and why? 2) when after the trade did Teller become a regular starter for his new team? 3) when after the treade did Teller become a pro-bowl (not all pro) player? I agree with that to an extent, and that extent has to do with talent evaluation by Beane & Co. No need to discuss, but we're constantly hearing about how Beane & Co., and McD, know the players better than we do and how "we can't know," etc., but then those players fail to meet the standards that we're lectured they're going to meet here when they drafted or signed. That list is extensive. But that then also falls back to my underlying premise, and without getting into a conversation about Beane, "culture," etc., the fact remains that in terms of OL and WR, and to a lesser extent TE, we could have done worlds better over the past five seasons. Otherwise we wouldn't have a majority opinion with endless discussions that we have no true #2 WR and that our OL is inadequate. This applies to our drafts as well. If anyone's going to insist that our staff knew that Doyle (5th), Tenuta (6th), or Jack Anderson (7th) were the solutions, then it would help that they were the solutions, which they weren't and aren't. In fact, Ford (2nd) wasn't a solution. Brown, the only other OL draft pick on Beane & Co.'s watch, has this season to validate that he is, and it two seasons he hasn't been either. Here's the thing, they've spent a ton of resources on our DL and DBs. Not all have hit, few if any have matched the value of their draft-pick spots, but shouldn't we have been putting similar resources into protecting our generational talent and franchise QB, around whom the entirety of our, both fans and coaching staff, success hinges? I say yes. In five drafts now prior to this year's, we've drafted: 6 DLs: 2 in the 1st round, 2 in 2nd round, 1 in the 3rd round, and 1 in the 7th round 4 LBs: 1 in the 2nd round, 1 in the 3rd round 8 DBs: 1 in round 1st, 1 in the 4th, 1 in the 5th, 4 in the 6th, 1 in the 7th 6 OL: 1 in the 2nd, 1 in the 3rd, 2 in the 5th, 1 each in the 6th & 7th 2 TEs; 1 in the late 3rd, 1 in the 7th 6 WRs: 1 in the 4th, 1 in the 5th, 3 in the 6th, 1 in the7th 3 RBs: 1 in the 2nd, 2 in the 3rd Only 22 of our 38 picks, not including Araiza, are on the roster now, with several of those to be cut soon. Otherwise, of 38 picks ... 5 DL were in the 1st-3rd rounds, DLs have been about 16% of our draft picks Both (only 2) LBs were in the 1st-3rd rounds, LBs 11% 1 DB was in the 1st, DBs 21% 2 OL in the 1st-3rd, OLs 16% 1 TE in the 3rd, TEs 5% 0 WRs in the 1st-3rd, WRs 16% 3 RBs in the 1st-3rd, RBs 8% Of the starting spots only, here are the percentages of starters out of 22 assuming 3 LBs in a base 4-3: DL: 18% Day 1 draft resource allocated - 2, Day 2 - 3 more LB: 14% Day 1 - 1, day 2 - 1 DB: 18% Day 1 - 1, day 2 - 0 OL: 23% Day 1 - 0, day 2 - 2 WR (3): 14% Day 1 - 0, day 2 - 0 TE (1): 4.5% Day 1 - 0, day 2 - 1 RB (1): 4.5% Day 1 - 0, day 2 - 3 Of our 14 picks in rounds 1-3 by "selection" order, not including Allen, and irrespective of year, here's the breakdown: 9th: Oliver 16th: Edmunds 23rd: Elam 30th: Rousseau ---------------- 38th: Ford 54th: Epenesa 61st: Basham 63rd: Cook ---------------- 74th: Singletary 86th: Moss 89th: Bernard 93rd: Brown 96th: Phillips 96th: Knox So to "help Allen" and protect him, we spent 2 picks on day 2, none on day 1, for OL or WRs. Back to my original point, that is original, I'm not sure I see too many other GM/Coach tandems putting so little high draft capital into their franchise QB, much less generational talent QBs, which most don't have. Obviously having Poyer, Hyde, and White for 6 seasons has eliminated the need for top resources there and we've typically had one of the best secondaries in the game if not the best once or more often. 2 hours ago, Beck Water said: Obviously, I didn't write as clearly as I should have, but please try to understand the points I was making in context, and not just fixate on one thing I did, and I truly appreciate the very civil and respectful exchange of ideas here. Thanks!! None of us are going to agree completely and there are a barrage of differing opinions, but at the end of the day we all want the same thing, a Lombardi, and the streets of Buffalo and Erie County will be insane once it happens with all of us being jubilant! BTW, I think that we've covered it. LOL We aren't going to agree on everything and if we did where would the fun in the discusssion be. Edited August 1, 2023 by PBF81 Quote
JESSEFEFFER Posted August 1, 2023 Posted August 1, 2023 18 hours ago, 3rdand12 said: Thats a lot of words Beck. And i enjoyed reading them all But i am pretty sure on this. You cant get your grits chapped. Many things can happen to grits. Some very good indeed ! And few ? not so much But chapped ? Have to call you out here. Go Bills I am not so sure. If grits can be kissed, I think they could get chapped. 1 Quote
3rdand12 Posted August 1, 2023 Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) 7 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said: I am not so sure. If grits can be kissed, I think they could get chapped. Well Y'all might be right about them grits ! and thankee for the time travel. Does take me back a spell Edited August 1, 2023 by 3rdand12 Quote
freddyjj Posted August 2, 2023 Posted August 2, 2023 12 hours ago, Beck Water said: I don't get your "Fact Check". In context, it should be clear I'm talking about the Chiefs here, in addressing the points of the OP I was discussing with. The point is, the Chiefs had a mere 2nd round pick in front of their rookie QB instead of drafting Billy Price in the 1st round like the Bengals (a guy who struggled, and was traded before the end of his 1st contract to a team that replaced him with Jon Feliciano) Though since you see the need for this I probsbly didn't write as clearly as I could have. Mitch Morse was NOT the starting C for the Chiefs in 2017, the first year I was talking about. He was injured. However, looking it up, he did start 5 games which is more than I thought. Point still stands. Hey didn't mean to upset you. You indicated Morse was a Rookie in 2017 when in fact it was his 3rd year in the league. To err is human. Thanks for the analysis here. Lots to consider Quote
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