Is Gabe Davis a trade candidate?

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

For me the perfect compliment to a WR1 is someone that stretches the field and scores TDs. WR2’s tend to have flaws. When I say WR2 I’m speaking more about outside WR. Technically a WR2 can be a TE or slot WR also if we’re talking target shares. So sometimes I get those mixed up. We’re not use to saying X Y Z F and so on.

 

Maybe we’re in an era where teams have multiple WR1’s. Multiple $20 million dollar receivers. I think it’s possible. Especially since the league is phasing out high paid RBs.

Kincaid could be 2nd in targets when he hits his prime. Wouldn’t he be considered WR2 in that case? Or are we strictly talking X and Z WR’s? Diggs can play every WR position. I want a WR opposite him being a field stretcher. Gabe Davis can do that. So that’s why I call him the perfect WR opposite Diggs. I don’t know if he’ll always be 2nd on the team in targets. He could easily be 3rd as early as this season depending on Kincaid.

 

 

 

he’s caught deep balls but is he a field stretcher? He’s not a particularly fast guy. 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

he’s caught deep balls but is he a field stretcher? He’s not a particularly fast guy. 

I think Gabe more qualifies as a deep threat. It’s honestly the only thing he is really good at compared to his contemporaries. Field stretcher makes me think of guys like Goodwin/Hill, one play TD’s. 

 

The biggest problem with Gabe is that his route tree in year 3 is not too different from his route tree in year 1. And for a guy with his size, he isn’t nearly able to use it as much as you would like.

 

but that’s why he was a fourth round pick. He’s outplayed his draft slot, but I think the folks waiting for his elite breakthrough are gonna be disappointed. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

9 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

he’s caught deep balls but is he a field stretcher? He’s not a particularly fast guy. 

He has an ability to get behind the defense. 
 

I don’t think he scares teams but he definitely is productive in that role. Now the question is if we had someone like DeSean Jackson in their prime what his numbers look like with Josh Allen? Maybe Gabe’s numbers are what they are because of Josh Allen. But he does produce down field.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[eball]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

He’s been the same guy for three years… my guess is we get the same guy in year 4…. expecting anything different doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. 

 

Yes, you are infamous for your “no player has the ability to develop or grow” takes — which are almost always proven wrong.

 

[NoSaint]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

He’s been the same guy for three years… my guess is we get the same guy in year 4…. expecting anything different doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. 

the hope has to be health

 

he moved like a cruise ship last year. Hopefully he gets a little more nimble.

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Yes, you are infamous for your “no player has the ability to develop or grow” takes — which are almost always proven wrong.

 

to be fair, there’s a hell of a lot more guys that don’t dramatically improve after 3 seasons 

 

usually you are in the ballpark of who they are, unless they simply were stuck behind someone for reps 

[eball]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

the hope has to be health

 

he moved like a cruise ship last year. Hopefully he gets a little more nimble.

to be fair, there’s a hell of a lot more guys that don’t dramatically improve after 3 seasons 

 

usually you are in the ballpark of who they are, unless they simply were stuck behind someone for reps 

 

If he shows the improvement this year that we expected last year, he’ll be as good a #2 WR as there is.

 

[NoSaint]

Just now, eball said:

 

If he shows the improvement this year that we expected last year, he’ll be as good a #2 WR as there is.

 

Sure, but expected is a loaded word. We can hope for anything, and our expectations don’t have to be based on any foundation 

 

Im hoping he’s healthy and steps up but until he shows the big jump we are just hoping. 

[eball]

Just now, NoSaint said:

Sure, but expected is a loaded word. We can hope for anything, and our expectations don’t have to be based on any foundation 

 

Im hoping he’s healthy and steps up but until he shows the big jump we are just hoping. 

 

Yes, we are hoping — with at least some logical basis behind that hope.  I haven’t forgotten Gabe’s playoffs in 2021.

 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, eball said:

 

If he shows the improvement this year that we expected last year, he’ll be as good a #2 WR as there is.

 

Hey man I’m hoping for it too, but this is a very funny post. 
 

“if he just does the thing he was supposed to do last year and failed at, we’ll be good.”

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

he’s caught deep balls but is he a field stretcher? He’s not a particularly fast guy. 

 

I think he plays faster than you would think based on his 40 time but he isn't a speedster. He also runs the post, and the go route really well so in that sense yes he is a field stretcher. 

[SCBills]

19 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

the hope has to be health

 

he moved like a cruise ship last year. Hopefully he gets a little more nimble.

to be fair, there’s a hell of a lot more guys that don’t dramatically improve after 3 seasons 

 

usually you are in the ballpark of who they are, unless they simply were stuck behind someone for reps 

I think the hope with a Gabe Davis Year 4 jump is due to the flashes he’s shown, mixed in with the fact he’s dealt with injuries quite a bit.  
 

The downside.. those injuries aren’t exactly one-offs.. he’s dealt with them since college. 
 

Reports from camp are he looks quicker and faster.. I will say that a healthy quicker faster Gabe Davis, with a legit option in the middle of the field in Knox/Kincaid, is likely in for a big season.   Just depends if he can stay healthy. 
 

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by SCBills

[FireChans]

17 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I think the hope with a Gabe Davis Year 4 jump is due to the flashes he’s shown, mixed in with the fact he’s dealt with injuries quite a bit.  
 

The downside.. those injuries aren’t exactly one-offs.. he’s dealt with them since college. 
 

Reports from camp are he looks quicker and faster.. I will say that a healthy quicker faster Gabe Davis, with a legit option in the middle of the field in Knox/Kincaid, is likely in for a big season.   Just depends if he can stay healthy. 
 

 

If Davis is our legit WR2, he should be pulling coverage off our other guys, not the other way around.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

For me the perfect compliment to a WR1 is someone that stretches the field and scores TDs. WR2’s tend to have flaws. When I say WR2 I’m speaking more about outside WR. Technically a WR2 can be a TE or slot WR also if we’re talking target shares. So sometimes I get those mixed up. We’re not use to saying X Y Z F and so on.

 

Maybe we’re in an era where teams have multiple WR1’s. Multiple $20 million dollar receivers. I think it’s possible. Especially since the league is phasing out high paid RBs.

Kincaid could be 2nd in targets when he hits his prime. Wouldn’t he be considered WR2 in that case? Or are we strictly talking X and Z WR’s? Diggs can play every WR position. I want a WR opposite him being a field stretcher. Gabe Davis can do that. So that’s why I call him the perfect WR opposite Diggs. I don’t know if he’ll always be 2nd on the team in targets. He could easily be 3rd as early as this season depending on Kincaid.

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah we are in a new era.  The idea about WR2 being another boundary option who stretches the field WAS the way it used to be........but not any longer if you reasonably expect to reach a SB.

 

Back when individual RB's were integral components of SB winning offense your WR2 could just run a few routes and have significant flaws.  Like the 1990's SB teams.  That's the Reed/(aging)Lofton or Michael Irvin/Alvin Harper dynamic.

 

Gabe Davis would have been a fine complementary WR2 back in the day.   Gabe is very Alvin Harper-esque.  

 

But now teams don't need that stud RB1........in fact a stud RB is almost a detriment in post season football because it makes the OC feel like they gotta' give that guy touches even when they aren't producing.   See the Saints blowing #1 seeds trying to feed Kamara in the playoffs.   The statistical evidence is overwhelming that you don't want one if you are making a SB run.

 

The emphasis for that 3rd "triplet" like the Kelly/Thomas/Reed combination is now a player at the LOS in the passing game........so not a RB.

 

Supply of WR1 talent has increased notably in the past 5 years as elite young athletes began moving to WR and CB in the past 10 years(post 2010 offensive rules changes).  

 

Now teams CAN have two boundary WR1's or a combination of an elite TE and studs at any of the WR positions that yield two legit #1 options in the passing game.   Cooper Kupp had his record setting year mostly from the slot.  

 

I do think they need Kincaid to become their WR2 option ASAP.   And that's a big ask, so I have my reservations that he can do that in year 1 just like most people do.

 

And just like last year,  stories are coming out about how Gabe is NOW ready to step up his game to WR1 level.  But he's really been the same guy since he came into the league and I don't think hard work is necessarily going to change that.    So I'll believe it when I see it.   3 seasons of foot problems = foot problems is part of his identity, IMO.  He can improve his terrible catch mechanics but then we still don't know if his hands will be consistent.   Just too many moving parts.....or parts that don't move well enough......to expect him to become a WR1 level target.

[Kirby Jackson]

Worse idea:

1) Trade Gabe Davis in training camp

2) Trade Mario Williams for John Skelton

[Manther]

On 7/29/2023 at 12:03 AM, Richard Noggin said:

Love the topic, but don't love the OP suggesting even a SHRED of connection to the signing of Andy Isabella. I know it was a measured mention, but I hope that isn't the thing that pushed this to the forefront of your mind.

 

I REALLY hope they don't re-sign Gabe unless it's to a VERY team friendly deal (like $10M/per). And if they aren't going to re-sign him, then it makes sense to recoup whatever assets they can (I'd think a 3rd is possible and presents some value). 

 

His chemistry with Allen, minus one incredible playoff game (which we lost), has been inconsistent and fraught with nagging injuries and DREADFUL catching fundamentals. Matt Parrino shared (on fb) a pic from this week where Gabe is still doing that awful outstretched hands, reaching thing. He's gotten flack for "clapping" at the ball, and I'm not sure if that's the same or not as what plagued him last year. He's like pointing his hands AT the ball. It's a mess. 

Agreed, the topic is interesting.  Isabella should have nothing to do with the topic specifically.  However, Isabella is in camp as are many WR's and if many of them are similar or close to Gabe we could look to trade him before the season.

 

My thoughts on Gabe in no particular order...

 

- he is a good 2/3 WR

- if we signed him before the season for $10 million I think it would be a good deal

- I don't think he will sign for $10 million a season

- the most I would want Gabe for is $12 million

- Gabe will probably get $15 million next year, more if he has a better year than last year and he should

- if we were high on many of our WRs similar to Gabe I would consider trading him

- I would NOT trade him for a 4th

- I would prefer to have him for the season than a 4th

- probably get a higher comp. pick than a 4th, but, the following year

- trade him for a 3rd, possibly

- we are looking to win the Super Bowl, I prefer to keep Gabe

- Gabe could ball out in a contract year and there are many injuries over the season

 

Go Bills!

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Manther said:

Agreed, the topic is interesting.  Isabella should have nothing to do with the topic specifically.  However, Isabella is in camp as are many WR's and if many of them are similar or close to Gabe we could look to trade him before the season.

 

My thoughts on Gabe in no particular order...

 

- he is a good 2/3 WR

- if we signed him before the season for $10 million I think it would be a good deal

- I don't think he will sign for $10 million a season

- the most I would want Gabe for is $12 million

- Gabe will probably get $15 million next year, more if he has a better year than last year and he should

- if we were high on many of our WRs similar to Gabe I would consider trading him

- I would NOT trade him for a 4th

- I would prefer to have him for the season than a 4th

- probably get a higher comp. pick than a 4th, but, the following year

- trade him for a 3rd, possibly

- we are looking to win the Super Bowl, I prefer to keep Gabe

- Gabe could ball out in a contract year and there are many injuries over the season

 

Go Bills!

Agree on a lot of this, but im not trading Gabe unless someone blows us away with an offer. 
 

Even then, we have a Super Bowl roster and I’m not sure what trade package could be more impactful than Davis playing on a contract year and us getting a RD3 comp pick if he balls out and leaves in FA. 

[iinii]

For the right price he would be dealt in a nanosecond 

[Motorin']

On 7/29/2023 at 10:18 AM, Beck Water said:

 

Beasley.  Hmmmm......I think you're onto something.  I'll reiterate here the argument I've made in more detail in the Spring/Summer.  What was missing from the Bills offense last season, especially towards the end of last season, were the quick short to intermediate throws.  The blitz and pressure beaters. 

 

Now there are multiple possible reasons for this:

-Dorsey play design/calling

-Josh UCL injury changing throwing motion that returned him to his college/rookie/2019 struggles with accuracy there

-early success at the "long bomb" combined with changes at coaching getting to Josh's head and failing to curb his aggressive, "Brett Favre says touchdowns first" mentality

 

But the really screaming and obvious one is: lack of the reliable, trusted, "always open" slot target that Beasley presented in 2019-2021.  Once Crowder was injured, it was pretty clear that Josh simply didn't trust McKenzie or Shakir the same way (or Hines, for that matter).

 

I think if we successfully rebuild that short/intermediate target rappore with Kincaid and a combination of Harty, Sherfield, and Shakir, then Davis will magically look better.

 

 

It's not entirely "on Gabe" to improve. 

 

Davis was 2nd in the league in Y/R.  He was a deep target for Josh last year.  He saw a lot of overthrows, a lot of throws forced into tight coverage, a lot of late throws that were a bit off-target because Josh was scrambling around extending the play.

 

Did Davis have his struggles with drops, and his struggles with route running, Yes. 

 

But improved use of the short/intermediate passing game and more selective targeting of Davis would immediately improve his catch % with no action on Davis' part.

 

 

Exactly.  In addition, Harty looked brilliant his one good year, but it was...one good year.  Sherfield looked solid last year but it was behind Waddle and Hill.  We have high hopes, but not so high that it would be wise to stake the season on them.

 

I think Davis has to improve his short route running to make strides in that area, and also have fewer drops overall. Modest improvements in both of those areas will do the trick and get him where he needs to be. 

 

And I don't necessarily attribute his lower catch % last year to more targets. I think it had more to do with being covered by the #1 cb frequently while they doubled Diggs. 

 

 

 

 

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, iinii said:

For the right price he would be dealt in a nanosecond 

Ok - and that price is what exactly?

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, eball said:

Nice article on Gabe in the Buff News this morning.  Guys like @ScottLaw will scoff but there are reasons why Davis was not stellar last year, and I think anyone who sleeps on him this year is in for a surprise.

 

 

I'm not sleeping on him but I think very best case scenario for Davis this year is that he gets back to the player he was as a rookie - a mostly deep threat who takes advantage of gaps in the defense caused by other pass catchers getting more attention. Still a low efficiency receiver but with enough big plays in a complementary offensive role that you can forgive the efficiency. If anyone expects his catch percentage to suddenly leap into the mid-60s and for Davis to suddenly become an above average separator, that is not realistic IMO.

 

There aren't any excuses for his performance last year. He has been the same player every year, just with variations in how much target share he has received.

 

Every day that Kincaid shines in camp it becomes more realistic that Davis will have his target share substantially reduced. Rookies making a big impact in a championship caliber offense is rare, but if Kincaid can be the exception I will not be concerned about Davis's role any more. However Kincaid would need to approach Beasley's 2020 season (76.6% catch percentage, 82 receptions, 967 yards) for him to be a truly ideal #2 target, and there's a long way to go for him to prove himself that capable. I am about as optimstic as I could be in July though.