Is Gabe Davis a trade candidate?

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I don't think we trade him

 

I think you could have stopped right there.   Meaning no offense, since hey, it's still the off season and no practice today, so what all do we have to talk about?

 

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

By all reports sounds like Sherfield and Harty are flashing in camp. With Kincaid and Knox we're going to run more 12 personnel than at any point during the Allen era, making WRs more expendable.

 

And then we sign a recent 2nd round WR in Andy Isabella. I realize he's been a bust thus far, but why would Beane bother bringing him in if he thought our WR corps was set?

 

I'm pretty sure Isabella is here because he's fast, and Beane is always willing to see if there's something his coaches can get out of a fast player.  Someone pointed out (sorry, don't remember who for credit) and I think it's a good point - one role for Isabella could be "that fast guy on the scout team helping the D prepare to face fast guys".  That suggestion was a lightbulb "Oh, so that's why!" moment for me.  So the idea might be to have a fast vet who's worn out his welcome as a starter, and could maybe be stashed on the PS for that reason, and if by some chance he shows a lot in camp he could maybe earn a shot.  Fast rookies or young players on PS tend to get sniped on waivers because other teams wanna see what they've got.

 

We've seen it year after year - players "flash" in camp and become fan favorites, only to disappear in the regular season.  We don't even know if Kincaid will look the same in pads at this point, much less against a physical defense determined to take him away.  So it's great that they look good, but smart GMs don't rate their chickens too carefully based on preseason.

 

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Gabe Davis will get a contract next season likely (as of this moment at least) in the $10-$15 million range, and I think that's actually below (maybe well below) what he'll actually get. We all know Buffalo’s CAP situation and what we're already gonna be paying Diggs since there's no out on his contract for 3 or 4 years.

 

What you say is true.  But Beane's pattern in these situations is to use the hell out of the player while he's under contract in a contract year and then thank him for his service and wave goodbye - not trade him while he's still under contract. 

 

Bottom line up front: the Bills have one of the thinnest WR rooms for a contender.  As far as guys who have proven they can make the plays on Sunday in the season, we have Diggs, Davis, "if healthy one year" on Harty, "one year behind Hill and Waddle who teams were petrified of" for Sherfield, a guy who flashed occasionally and made gaffes (not unusual for a rookie) in Shakir, and an actual rookie.  Trading the teams #2 receiver and making our already thin WR room even thinner, would be a horrid move for a team that hopes to contend.

 

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

And then there's this from the first few TC practices from Joe B's day 3 report at The Athletic:

 

Davis targeted minimally the last two practices

There’s no doubt Davis looks a lot smoother and more explosive on his routes than from when he was injured, but it hasn’t translated to much production through the early portion of camp. Of those 37 Allen pass attempts over the last two practices, Davis was only targeted in team drills twice. Both targets occurred on Friday, and to Davis’ credit, he brought in both for a shorter reception. Over the same span, Diggs (10), Trent Sherfield (6), Knox (5) and Kincaid (3) were all targeted more often by Allen. It could just be the start of camp and a feeling out process with Allen and Davis, or perhaps it’s a continuation of the lower target share Davis accrued during 2022. Either way, all eyes will be on the now-healthy Davis in a contract year.

 

1) it's the start of camp

2) Allen has been focusing somewhat on Diggs, understandable since Diggs missed all of OTAs, didn't participate in the team portion at mandatory minicamp, and reportedly didn't travel to Cali to throw with Josh before training camp.

3) Allen has new targets to build chemistry with, including Kincaid, Harty, Sherfield, and Shorter.

 

Wait and see.

 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[hondo in seattle]

If you watched the interview with Gabe, he made it clear that he wasn't 100% last season.  He said his ankle messed with him both physically and mentally.  I think there's reason to hope & believe he'll be better this year.

 

And if you watched the interviews with Beane and McD, their support for Gabe sounds genuine.  

 

I seriously doubt Gabe is being traded.  

 

I'm glad Harty and Sherfield have flashed in camp.   The Bills are a passing offense that uses a lot of 3 WR formations.  And with injuries being a fact of NFL life, the Bills team needs the depth that those two provide.  It's even possible one of them starts in the slot.  But neither Harty nor Sherfield has demonstrated that they can be a good #2 and that's what we need.  

 

And Isabella - with his 5'9'' stature and 33 career receptions - certainly doesn't make Davis expendable.  Isabella is a small, speedy guy and we already have one of those.    I think there's a role for Harty on the team.  And if Harty gets hurt, maybe Isabella is someone we'll sign off someone's practice squad to replace him.  

[DCofNC]

10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That's a pretty creative idea.   I like all the soft evidence you've given.  There's a limit to how many big receivers you're gonna put on the field, and Knox and Kincaid both should see the field a lot.  Hard to say what to think of Shorter at this point, but he has to be a long shot. 

 

The other point is that McBeane love speed, and it's been in short supply in Buffalo.   The possibility of moving Davis makes the Isabella signing make more sense.   Maybe they want a burner opposite Diggs, with Kincaid in the slot.   Maybe they think Shakir can handle the load at #2, or maybe #2 will be receiver by committee. 

 

It is curious how stacked the receiver room is with guys who have potential. 

 

Interesting suggestion.    

I would call the Receiver room “full” not stacked.  The only way I see Davis being traded is somebody offering a really nice pick OR swap for another vet WR of the same caliber.  I guess the other possibility could be Shorter claiming the #2 spot in camp, that I do not see happening.

 

Im all for trading Davis if there is a plan in place, I don’t think he’s a number 2 at all, so I’d let him go if I had a better option, but that leaves a very small WR room with little to no history of production and in a SB or Bust type of scenario, you don’t compromise depth over a 3rd round pick.

[Rockinon]

I think Davis has flashed when both Diggs and Beasley were on the team. As a #2 he has thus far disappointed somewhat because of injuries. He still has potential, but availability is a concern.  For that reason, he may not be here after this season. For now though, I think the Bills will use him in a contract year. It still remains to be seen if he can finally break 1000yds as a #2 and quiet the doubters. I think he does it....unless he's hit with the injury bug again.

[Motorin']

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have been trying to make this point since last seasons started. A year ago people were saying:

 

"Gabe Davis is our #1B we basically have two wide receiver 1s"

 

I said - no he's not - he's a #2.

 

This year people are saying:

 

"Gabe Davis isn't good enough to be a WR2 he should be WR3 or WR4." 

 

And again I say - not true, he is a WR2. 

 

People take these wild and slightly mad positions rather than looking at the evidence and taking a sound position. 

 

As for the idea of trading him, which has now come up twice in a week. He is going tl get paid. Possibly by the Bills or most likely by someone else in FA next spring. Which would net the Bills possibly a 3rd but certainly a 4th round comp pick. So sure you could trade him for that now and bring that pick forward from the 2025 Draft to the 2024 Draft but you have willingly made a team in a Superbowl window weaker to do that. It makes no sense.

 

Gabe needs to catch at least 10% more of his targets next year to put him over 60%. Which is where you want him as your #2, imo. That's about 10 more catches over the whole season. Less than 1 per game. 

 

There are a number of current #1 wr's that had big improvements in catch % in years 3-5 of their career. 

 

Amari Cooper, year 3 (50%) to year 4 (70%). 

 

Devante Adams year 2 (53%) to year 3 (62%.) Then he hovered in the low 60% for the next 4-5 seasons before having a leap to 70%.

 

Tyler Locket year 3 (63%) to year 4 (81%)

 

Chris Godwin year 2 (62%) to year 3 (71%).

 

Of course there's no guarantee than Gabe has a similar improvement in year 4. But there's definitely precedent for it being possible.

 

Had Gabe caught 60% last season he would have been a 1000 yard receiver, and was already top 15 in TD receptions. And I don't know if anyone is saying he's not a #2.

 

It's on him to improve. If he catches roughly 1 more pass per game on the same number of targets, he'll have a huge leap statistically and be over 65%. 

 

 

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I would call the Receiver room “full” not stacked.  The only way I see Davis being traded is somebody offering a really nice pick OR swap for another vet WR of the same caliber.  I guess the other possibility could be Shorter claiming the #2 spot in camp, that I do not see happening.

 

Im all for trading Davis if there is a plan in place, I don’t think he’s a number 2 at all, so I’d let him go if I had a better option, but that leaves a very small WR room with little to no history of production and in a SB or Bust type of scenario, you don’t compromise depth over a 3rd round pick.

I didn't say it was stacked with talent.  I said it was stacked with "potential."  

 

I think Davis is better than you think, but I don't disagree.   And yes, there would have to be a plan in place.  The plan might be Shakir.  The plan might be that Kincaid actually plays some wideout.   But yes, they won't trade Davis unless they know what the starting group will look like.   Not clear who that would be. 

[without a drought]

Diggs, 5th most touchdowns by a wr over the last 3 years.

 

Davis, 12th most touchdowns by a wr over the last 3 years.

 

Not the best place to look to subtract from.

[Fan in Chicago]

25 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I would call the Receiver room “full” not stacked.  The only way I see Davis being traded is somebody offering a really nice pick OR swap for another vet WR of the same caliber.  I guess the other possibility could be Shorter claiming the #2 spot in camp, that I do not see happening.

 

Im all for trading Davis if there is a plan in place, I don’t think he’s a number 2 at all, so I’d let him go if I had a better option, but that leaves a very small WR room with little to no history of production and in a SB or Bust type of scenario, you don’t compromise depth over a 3rd round pick.

Agreed on this.

(you are saying this too) We cannot depend on our low draft picks Shorter or Shavers to make a positive impact this season. We would have won the lottery if one of them somehow surprise us . After all it has been a long time since one of our low draft picks rose to starter status - Kyle Williams was one, Benford is trending that way. But, expecting Shorter or Shavers to be good, in their rookie years, is too much and not conducive to a strategy. 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Fan in Chicago

[Virgil]

11 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

edit: and no, you don't pay him a big money extension. He's Robin, you never pay Robin. You get a new Robin. You pay Batman.

Stealing this for the future 

[Beck Water]

5 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I would call the Receiver room “full” not stacked.  The only way I see Davis being traded is somebody offering a really nice pick OR swap for another vet WR of the same caliber.  I guess the other possibility could be Shorter claiming the #2 spot in camp, that I do not see happening.

 

Im all for trading Davis if there is a plan in place, I don’t think he’s a number 2 at all, so I’d let him go if I had a better option, but that leaves a very small WR room with little to no history of production and in a SB or Bust type of scenario, you don’t compromise depth over a 3rd round pick.

 

I don't entirely agree that Davis isn't "a number 2 WR at all".  I think Davis isn't a number 2 only when compared with the #2 on teams that have 2 #1 WR - Bengals, Eagles, Miami. 

 

But with the bolded part, I agree completely.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Gabe needs to catch at least 10% more of his targets next year to put him over 60%. Which is where you want him as your #2, imo. That's about 10 more catches over the whole season. Less than 1 per game. 

 

There are a number of current #1 wr's that had big improvements in catch % in years 3-5 of their career. 

 

Amari Cooper, year 3 (50%) to year 4 (70%). 

 

Devante Adams year 2 (53%) to year 3 (62%.) Then he hovered in the low 60% for the next 4-5 seasons before having a leap to 70%.

 

Tyler Locket year 3 (63%) to year 4 (81%)

 

Chris Godwin year 2 (62%) to year 3 (71%).

 

Of course there's no guarantee than Gabe has a similar improvement in year 4. But there's definitely precedent for it being possible.

 

Had Gabe caught 60% last season he would have been a 1000 yard receiver, and was already top 15 in TD receptions. And I don't know if anyone is saying he's not a #2.

 

It's on him to improve. If he catches roughly 1 more pass per game on the same number of targets, he'll have a huge leap statistically and be over 65%. 

 

 

 

A. Gabe isn't as good as those guys. 

B. He isn't the same type of receiver. He will always be lower volume higher outcome.

[Fan in Chicago]

Another thought came to mind - the signing of Isabella, a serious underproducer and interest in another underperformer (NKeal Harry) gives a clear signal that McBeane are not happy with the WR room. Which itself is a good sign because they are at least indirectly acknowledging it. Neither Isabella nor Harry can be expected to be that "missing piece" but at least the effort is there. Perhaps they keep trying and stumble across a John Brown who would greatly help in a spot role. 

[Shaw66]

I just came back to this thread and I'm amused by the comments.   People jumped all over transplant for the suggestion, even though he himself said it wasn't likely.  And despite jumping on transplant, the discussion about Davis is pretty good and raises interesting points.   

 

I like the original post because it was creative without being stupid.  Beane does things we don't expect, and transplant did a good job thinking about what kind of thing Beane might do with what he's looking at right now.   There might be some other things, but the list is short.  Corner #2 kind of looks like the receiver room - a lot of talent, but no one has taken the job yet.  And you hate to trade corner talent.  MLB, but really, you can't trade anyone there until you know what you have.  Not trading Bates - he's your backup guard and center.  With Nyheim gone, you're not trading a back.   But Davis, at least you can make a case, especially with how well the receiver corps has looked so far in camp. 

 

I like the point Gunner, I think, made:  If you want to make a Super Bowl run, you don't make yourself weaker by trading a guy for a pick when you're likely to lose the guy in free agency next year and get a comp pick for him.  Why not use his talents, and if he has a big year, the comp pick might be better than you can now in a trade.  

 

Trade him for a player?   Now, that might make more sense.   Davis for a guy to replace Hines?   That would make some sense.   It doesn't look like the Bills have a quality speed back behind Cook, and that's a weakness.  

 

Finally, I'll. say what many people have said for the past few years:  It's great, finally, to have training camp discussions here come down to hypotheticals like this.  I mean, discussing whether Davis is a true #2 or not, and having that beat the hot discussion, or discussing whether Elam should the #2 corner with Jackson and Benford on board is a whole lot better than talking about why the GM didn't find a left tackle , or #1 receiver, or  a #1 corner.   I noticed it listening to Hyde's press conference.   This is a team full of veterans whose every sentence is backed up by an unspoken thought:  "We know how good we are.  We aren't here talking about how this team is going to get to .500.  There is only one objective and we all know we are this close to it."  

 

Great time to be a Bills fan.

 

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I think Davis has flashed when both Diggs and Beasley were on the team. As a #2 he has thus far disappointed somewhat because of injuries. He still has potential, but availability is a concern.  For that reason, he may not be here after this season. For now though, I think the Bills will use him in a contract year. It still remains to be seen if he can finally break 1000yds as a #2 and quiet the doubters. I think he does it....unless he's hit with the injury bug again.

 

Beasley.  Hmmmm......I think you're onto something.  I'll reiterate here the argument I've made in more detail in the Spring/Summer.  What was missing from the Bills offense last season, especially towards the end of last season, were the quick short to intermediate throws.  The blitz and pressure beaters. 

 

Now there are multiple possible reasons for this:

-Dorsey play design/calling

-Josh UCL injury changing throwing motion that returned him to his college/rookie/2019 struggles with accuracy there

-early success at the "long bomb" combined with changes at coaching getting to Josh's head and failing to curb his aggressive, "Brett Favre says touchdowns first" mentality

 

But the really screaming and obvious one is: lack of the reliable, trusted, "always open" slot target that Beasley presented in 2019-2021.  Once Crowder was injured, it was pretty clear that Josh simply didn't trust McKenzie or Shakir the same way (or Hines, for that matter).

 

I think if we successfully rebuild that short/intermediate target rappore with Kincaid and a combination of Harty, Sherfield, and Shakir, then Davis will magically look better.

 

8 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Gabe needs to catch at least 10% more of his targets next year to put him over 60%. Which is where you want him as your #2, imo. That's about 10 more catches over the whole season. Less than 1 per game.

(....)

Had Gabe caught 60% last season he would have been a 1000 yard receiver, and was already top 15 in TD receptions. And I don't know if anyone is saying he's not a #2.

 

It's on him to improve. If he catches roughly 1 more pass per game on the same number of targets, he'll have a huge leap statistically and be over 65%.

 

It's not entirely "on Gabe" to improve. 

 

Davis was 2nd in the league in Y/R.  He was a deep target for Josh last year.  He saw a lot of overthrows, a lot of throws forced into tight coverage, a lot of late throws that were a bit off-target because Josh was scrambling around extending the play.

 

Did Davis have his struggles with drops, and his struggles with route running, Yes. 

 

But improved use of the short/intermediate passing game and more selective targeting of Davis would immediately improve his catch % with no action on Davis' part.

 

4 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

(you are saying this too) We cannot depend on our low draft picks Shorter or Shavers to make a positive impact this season. We would have won the lottery if one of them somehow surprise us . After all it has been a long time since one of our low draft picks rose to starter status - Kyle Williams was one, Benford is trending that way. But, expecting Shorter or Shavers to be good, in their rookie years, is too much and not conducive to a strategy. 

 

Exactly.  In addition, Harty looked brilliant his one good year, but it was...one good year.  Sherfield looked solid last year but it was behind Waddle and Hill.  We have high hopes, but not so high that it would be wise to stake the season on them.

[Bangarang]

3 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

If they would have just hung on to Hodgins, yes.  But they blew it. 

People have this weird obsession with Hodgins. He was the beneficiary of being on a team with no WRs. Remember Robert Foster? Where’s he now?

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

No.  The ideal WR2 is a potential WR1 like Smith, Waddle, or Higgins.

 

 

Yeah the problem with @Buffalo_Stampede quote is that Gabe Davis is clearly not the "perfect" WR2.   He's certainly not the ideal and at this point everyone should know that.  I can only assume he was just careless with his words because he takes offense to the deserved criticism.

 

There is nothing "perfect" about being second in the league in total drops and 185th in catch % when you are getting close to 100 targets.   Too much inefficiency.   That inconsistency from Davis.........combined with that of lesser ball droppers like McKenzie/Shakir/Knox playing one slot ahead of where they should in the pecking order........helped allow teams to roll extra attention to Diggs in the second half of last season,  which made the offense look chaotic at times.   Far from ideal.

 

The Bills haven't really had a top 10 WR2 since early in the 2020 season before John Brown got hurt.   The Bills passing game looked considerably different then.   Far too much off-script offense in the mix now.  Even just the threat of a screen to the otherwise-bomb-threat Smoke(which produced a handful of huge, game changing plays) had an impact that the offense has lacked ever since.   An ideal WR2 is either great at one thing or able to beat you in numerous ways and be both high production and efficient.  Like a WR1.   This is the way the league is now and there has been an influx of WR talent in the last 5 years like we've never seen before so it's not far fetched to have 2 WR1's.   

 

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Agreed on this.

(you are saying this too) We cannot depend on our low draft picks Shorter or Shavers to make a positive impact this season. We would have won the lottery if one of them somehow surprise us . After all it has been a long time since one of our low draft picks rose to starter status - Kyle Williams was one, Benford is trending that way. But, expecting Shorter or Shavers to be good, in their rookie years, is too much and not conducive to a strategy. 

This is a great point, and I need to be constantly reminded of it.  (You forgot to mention Milano.)

 

But I can still hope.   The reason I can hope is that when you have a team as good as the Bills have, a guy with talent but not necessarily a future can flash for a half-season on more.   KC's been having skill position players do that for a few years now.  So a guy with, reportedly, high-end talent like Shorter might thrive under McDermott's leadership and in a system where he just has to be able to attack the holes in the defense that Josh, Cook, Diggs, and Kincaid create.  That is, you don't have to be an eight-season keeper at the position - you just have to fill the need that a good offense creates.   

 

So, yes, you can't depend on low draft picks.   But sometimes they rise to meet the need. 

[That's No Moon]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

That's the point of trading him. The future. You don't pay Robin. If trading him gives us a 3rd or 4th, that's trade up cash in hand... and we all know Beane loves trading up.

 

We just paid Harty money like he's going to be a decent contributor.

 

Sherfield by all reports--including Josh Allen--is excelling at WR.

 

We've all watched Shakir flash.

 

We just drafted a TE who's essentially going to substitute for a WR most of the time.

 

We (for whatever reason) just signed a former 2nd round pick from 2019 to our roster at WR.

 

And Gabe has 1 year left on his contract but also has value.

 

I will repeat that I don’t think we do trade him, but given all of the above, how bad would it really be to do it, especially if it helps net you a WR opposite Diggs through 2027 under a rookie contract even better than Davis?

I don't think you'd get anything worthy of trading him. He has more utility for this season than a mid round pick does next year.

[Big Blitz]

11 hours ago, SCBills said:

I doubt it..  but if he’s truly in their long term plans, they should seriously get him signed before the season starts. 

 

Been saying this for months - if you believe he can be WR 1 on a top SB contender if Diggs goes down then he should be extended before he gets stupid UFA money from some bottom feeder with huge cap space.  
 

If you aren’t sure then what are we doing here?  
 

 

I think they are sure and will try to lock him up but Gabe knows if he gets 110 targets and say 75 catches and 1200 yards, he’s going to get a ridiculous UFA offer.  Like top 5 WR money.   
 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Big Blitz

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

But the really screaming and obvious one is: lack of the reliable, trusted, "always open" slot target that Beasley presented in 2019-2021.  Once Crowder was injured, it was pretty clear that Josh simply didn't trust McKenzie or Shakir the same way (or Hines, for that matter).

 

I think if we successfully rebuild that short/intermediate target rappore with Kincaid and a combination of Harty, Sherfield, and Shakir, then Davis will magically look better.

 

 

This is good stuff.  Exactly.  I'd throw in Isabella.  I keep scratching my head about why they signed him.  In part, it's becoming apparent that Beane always will go after speed.   Maybe they see him running the jet sweep.

 

But maybe they see him in the Beasley slot role.   I don't know that anyone's tried him there much, and I haven't looked to see if he has the athleticism to play, but I think he has the quickness.  But if you can have a guy look him running out of the slot on one play, threatening short and threatening deep, and you can have a guy like Kincaid in the slot on the next play, you're really testing the defense to match up.   I think the Bills are trying out everyone in the slot - Kincaid, Harty, Sherfield, Shakir and now Isabella, to find a couple of guys who will be threats on short- and mid-range throws.

 

And the real point about all of this is the threat as much as the actual production, because what the threat does is force the defense to get away from doubling Diggs.  Remember Diggs?