Is Gabe Davis a trade candidate?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

 

No.  The ideal WR2 is a potential WR1 like Smith, Waddle, or Higgins.

And that’s where the problem is. So we don’t really want to pay a WR2. We want a player that will be WR1 after 3 years. The problem with those players is they’ll cost north of 20 million after 3 years.

 

Davis will cost 12-15 million.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[BADOLBILZ]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s actually a perfect WR2 if he look at him as a WR2. I compare him to top WR2’s but those guys are actually WR1’s, Waddle and Higgins for example. Then there’s young WRs on rookie deals with WR1 potential.

 

Davis is a WR2. He blocks and puts up 50-60 catches 900 yards and 8 TDs. That’s a WR2.

 

The question is can we easily replace him? The one thing he does do very well is score TDs. That would be the hardest part to replace. 

 

 

No the perfect WR2 for a SB contender IS a guy capable of being a WR1 on some teams.   The standard is high for SB contenders because the quality of a teams second WR option has been huge with regard to reaching and/or winning the SB the last 6 years.   That's a significant trend.

 

Gabe is definitely not that kinda guy.   He's even a long way from JuJu Smith Schuster......who was a 70% catch rate and top 25 yardage WR  last season.  

 

Gabe is a very good WR3 for a SB contender with a QB with elite arm talent.   He and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are practically the same guy.   Horrible 50% catch rates......very high ypr......but limited route tree.   Really need a QB with elite arm strength (to find him on spots of the field where most QB's can't reach) to basically make the field bigger for them so they can get open.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[LABILLBACKER]

Yeah teams are just lining up to sign 57% catch rate guy. 1 amazing game hardly makes a career.

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

The drops are an issue but keep in mind his average depth of target has always been near the top of the league.  I'd be interested to see for the advanced analytic nerds if there's some adjusted formula that correlates drop rate to average depth of target.

 

Don't know about a formula for that, one could calculate it given the data, not sure that it's readily available. 

 

But, he did lead the league in Yards-Before-Catch per Reception, by an entire yard.  14.4   #2 was 13.4.  

 

He's also the 5th Highest depth-of-Target for all passes whether caught or not.  Of the top 7 he's got the most yards.  

 

He's also near the top for INTs on passes when he's targeted, percentage wise especially.  One would have to look at the plays as to why.  This was notably lower the year prior.  

 

 

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

And that’s where the problem is. So we don’t really want to pay a WR2. We want a player that will be WR1 after 3 years. The problem with those players is they’ll cost north of 20 million after 3 years.

 

Davis will cost 12-15 million.

Given they don't have any recently drafted WR with elite potential on their roster right now they may pay him a Jacoby Myers type extension (around 3 years 33 million).  I wouldn't go above that though as Gabe isn't that difficult to replace on the FA market.

[Richard Noggin]

26 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

The drops are an issue but keep in mind his average depth of target has always been near the top of the league.  I'd be interested to see for the advanced analytic nerds if there's some adjusted formula that correlates drop rate to average depth of target.

 

No.  The ideal WR2 is a potential WR1 like Smith, Waddle, or Higgins.

 

First point is really interesting. I'd guess there are advanced metrics that do adjust or handicap something like drop/catch rate for depth of target (among other circumstantial factors). So many interrelated and interdependent variables on every NFL play that make the modern quantifiable assessment of individual player efficacy a fascinating and imperfect science. 

 

-tangential thought: one of the knocks on Davis coming out of UCF was that his route tree was basically just a tall pole. And despite his hard work, and intermittent (and occasionally bombastic) productivity, it seems like his usage has remained heavily weighted towards deeper sideline routes with an infamously predictable reliance on in-breaking patterns. 

 

Second point: further specifying, the "ideal" WR2 is a highly drafted eventual replacement (or trade asset) for your WR1. Your three examples fit that criteria (depending on which Smith you're referring to). Until Kincaid, the Bills have not gone that route with pipeline development. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

29 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Given they don't have any recently drafted WR with elite potential on their roster right now they may pay him a Jacoby Myers type extension (around 3 years 33 million).  I wouldn't go above that though as Gabe isn't that difficult to replace on the FA market.

I don’t think I would want to sign a WR as a WR2. I would rather draft a guy with potential WR1 abilities.

 
I think the Bills need someone capable of replacing Diggs in 2-3 years.
 

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[BillsShredder83]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I don't think we trade him, but recent events make me wonder. By all reports sounds like Sherfield and Harty are flashing in camp. With Kincaid and Knox we're going to run more 12 personnel than at any point during the Allen era, making WRs more expendable.

 

And then we sign a recent 2nd round WR in Andy Isabella. I realize he's been a bust thus far, but why would Beane bother bringing him in if he thought our WR corps was set?

 

And that's where the guesswork comes into play...

 

I'm sure most view it as Shakir insurance based on his reportedly poor start to camp. I think that'd be financially kinda silly considering Shakir showed some potential in actual NFL games and he's one of only 2 or 3 (if Shorter makes the team) WRs still under contract after 2023.

 

Gabe Davis will get a contract next season likely (as of this moment at least) in the $10-$15 million range, and I think that's actually below (maybe well below) what he'll actually get. We all know Buffalo’s CAP situation and what we're already gonna be paying Diggs since there's no out on his contract for 3 or 4 years. 

 

$40+ million (conservatively) a year to 2 WRs?

 

And then there's this from the first few TC practices from Joe B's day 3 report at The Athletic:

 

Davis targeted minimally the last two practices

Following the Bills’ second day of practice, starting receiver Gabe Davis was quite candid about some of his physical and mental struggles during the 2022 season, stemming from an early-year high ankle sprain that wound up defining his output. He didn’t take the leap many were hoping for, but he remains very well thought of throughout the building. There’s no doubt Davis looks a lot smoother and more explosive on his routes than from when he was injured, but it hasn’t translated to much production through the early portion of camp. Of those 37 Allen pass attempts over the last two practices, Davis was only targeted in team drills twice. Both targets occurred on Friday, and to Davis’ credit, he brought in both for a shorter reception. Over the same span, Diggs (10), Trent Sherfield (6), Knox (5) and Kincaid (3) were all targeted more often by Allen. It could just be the start of camp and a feeling out process with Allen and Davis, or perhaps it’s a continuation of the lower target share Davis accrued during 2022. Either way, all eyes will be on the now-healthy Davis in a contract year.

 

I know this... we already have a lot of draft capital next year and Beane loves trading up. What do you think Gabe fetches? A 3rd? A 4th? I think we could at least get a 4th for him, which is where he was drafted. 

 

Then Big Baller Beane uses all those draft picks to get our next #1 in waiting in next year's draft...

 

Marvin Harrison Jr. anyone????

"What do you think Gabe fetches? A 3rd? A 4th?"

 

Man im just about the biggest Gabe hater on the board, he was god awful last year and i think a huuuuuge reason for our 3 & outs/short series.... but i just hate him in the role of a #2.... he makes for a good target #3 imo.  Theres no freaking way Im trading him away for a 4th or less, i proli turn down a 3rd rder too. Would much rather keep a weapon (#3 option), and let him willingly walk in FA next year, before trading him!

 

Side note, even in doing that we can get feelers out on his value and decide if hes worth a tag & trade deal next offseason, and at least have that route as an insurance policy, AFTER having retained his services this year. Ideally see a Peerless Price type situation happen AFTER we snag a ring!

[Nextmanup]

Guys like Beane say, all the time, that he will make the team better if the chance arrises.

 

So sure, he could be traded, but I don't see it happening.

 

 

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s actually a perfect WR2 if he look at him as a WR2. I compare him to top WR2’s but those guys are actually WR1’s, Waddle and Higgins for example. Then there’s young WRs on rookie deals with WR1 potential.

 

Davis is a WR2. He blocks and puts up 50-60 catches 900 yards and 8 TDs. That’s a WR2.

 

The question is can we easily replace him? The one thing he does do very well is score TDs. That would be the hardest part to replace. 

He's literally never done any of those things

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

There is only one ball and if you don't throw it to Diggs enough it doesn't go well.

 

edit: and no, you don't pay him a big money extension. He's Robin, you never pay Robin. You get a new Robin. You pay Batman.

 

That's the point of trading him. The future. You don't pay Robin. If trading him gives us a 3rd or 4th, that's trade up cash in hand... and we all know Beane loves trading up.

 

We just paid Harty money like he's going to be a decent contributor.

 

Sherfield by all reports--including Josh Allen--is excelling at WR.

 

We've all watched Shakir flash.

 

We just drafted a TE who's essentially going to substitute for a WR most of the time.

 

We (for whatever reason) just signed a former 2nd round pick from 2019 to our roster at WR.

 

And Gabe has 1 year left on his contract but also has value.

 

I will repeat that I don’t think we do trade him, but given all of the above, how bad would it really be to do it, especially if it helps net you a WR opposite Diggs through 2027 under a rookie contract even better than Davis?

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s actually a perfect WR2 if he look at him as a WR2. I compare him to top WR2’s but those guys are actually WR1’s, Waddle and Higgins for example. Then there’s young WRs on rookie deals with WR1 potential.

 

Davis is a WR2. He blocks and puts up 50-60 catches 900 yards and 8 TDs. That’s a WR2.

 

The question is can we easily replace him? The one thing he does do very well is score TDs. That would be the hardest part to replace. 

 

I have been trying to make this point since last seasons started. A year ago people were saying:

 

"Gabe Davis is our #1B we basically have two wide receiver 1s"

 

I said - no he's not - he's a #2.

 

This year people are saying:

 

"Gabe Davis isn't good enough to be a WR2 he should be WR3 or WR4." 

 

And again I say - not true, he is a WR2. 

 

People take these wild and slightly mad positions rather than looking at the evidence and taking a sound position. 

 

As for the idea of trading him, which has now come up twice in a week. He is going tl get paid. Possibly by the Bills or most likely by someone else in FA next spring. Which would net the Bills possibly a 3rd but certainly a 4th round comp pick. So sure you could trade him for that now and bring that pick forward from the 2025 Draft to the 2024 Draft but you have willingly made a team in a Superbowl window weaker to do that. It makes no sense.

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

Gabe Davis was playing through injury last season and still has upside. I think if he has a hot start to the season, we'll sign him to a long-term deal.

 

We have a lot of receivers in camp, but at least one of them is likely to get a minor injury during preseason and stashed on IR (either Shorter or Isabella)

I disagree here with regards to Davis.

 

Firstly, he was injuried throughout the early to middle part of the season. All indications were he was relatively healthy for a large part of the season; especially the latter half and playoffs. Frankly, during this time he was nothing special and average at best. 

 

Secondly, Davis has limited upside due to his weaknesses. Not quick off the line of scrimmage and stiffer hips. That's exactly why he was a low draft selection. That's why he will likely never be more than an average WR2. In short, his upside is limited. 

 

Lastly, I don't believe Davis is worth a big contract in the neighborhood of 15 mil. 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

First point is really interesting. I'd guess there are advanced metrics that do adjust or handicap something like drop/catch rate for depth of target (among other circumstantial factors). So many interrelated and interdependent variables on every NFL play that make the modern quantifiable assessment of individual player efficacy a fascinating and imperfect science. 

 

-tangential thought: one of the knocks on Davis coming out of UCF was that his route tree was basically just a tall pole. And despite his hard work, and intermittent (and occasionally bombastic) productivity, it seems like his usage has remained heavily weighted towards deeper sideline routes with an infamously predictable reliance on in-breaking patterns. 

 

Second point: further specifying, the "ideal" WR2 is a highly drafted eventual replacement (or trade asset) for your WR1. Your three examples fit that criteria (depending on which Smith you're referring to). Until Kincaid, the Bills have not gone that route with pipeline development. 

I'm not making excuses for Gabe's drops but he's also not running quick five yard slant routes with Jimmy G throwing him the ball.  He's trying to track Josh Allen rockets where his average depth of target is 15.3 yards.  Of course those balls are harder to catch.  He doesn't have great hands but I think those drop rates are slightly inflated.  He's a good intermediate to deep route runner but quickly getting separation off the line in the short areas is not his game and never will be.  The increased work load didn't hurt him as much last year as a drop off in the slot position imo.

 

And yes I was referring to Devonta Smith btw.

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

He's literally never done any of those things

You’ve LITERALLY NEVER seen him block or catch a 50-50 pass?!?!

Come on now. I call BS on the “literally never “ comment. 

 

[John from Riverside]

I think he gets assigned to an extension and people will be upset about it

[Doc Brown]

12 minutes ago, Dopey said:

You’ve LITERALLY NEVER seen him block or catch a 50-50 pass?!?!

Come on now. I call BS on the “literally never “ comment. 

 

No.  He's never put up 50 plus receptions, 900 plus yards, or over 8 touchdowns in a season like GoBills808 quoted.  Reading comprehension matters.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Doc Brown

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I disagree here with regards to Davis.

 

Firstly, he was injuried throughout the early to middle part of the season. All indications were he was relatively healthy for a large part of the season; especially the latter half and playoffs. Frankly, during this time he was nothing special and average at best. 

 

Secondly, Davis has limited upside due to his weaknesses. Not quick off the line of scrimmage and stiffer hips. That's exactly why he was a low draft selection. That's why he will likely never be more than an average WR2. In short, his upside is limited. 

 

Lastly, I don't believe Davis is worth a big contract in the neighborhood of 15 mil. 

 

That WAS a weakness at draft time. It isn't so much now. His release package is the biggest area of improvement he has made as a pro and it is very noticeable. 

 

His weaknesses are that he isn't a big separator and that is attributable somewhat to his stiffness and lack of short area burst and his hands which have not been good enough and must get better. Especially for a "bigger" receiver. I don't think he always plays his size in contested catch situations and he doesn't come down with enough of those balls. 

 

His strengths are that he is faster than he looks when he can long stride, he runs the go route, the post and the comeback really well, his get off (as above) is now pretty good and he has excellent body control. He is also a willing blocker in the run game. 

 

Not sure what the WR market will look like in free agency next year. On the face of it the group doesn't look that strong. Tee Higgins, Mike Evans and Michael Pittman are the three outside receivers Gabe would be out there in the market against as it stands and I still expect Pittman and the Colts to come to an agreement before the end of camp. On that basis I think Gabe can expect to be in the $13m - $15m range. But if either Higgins or Evans were to extend as well (not sure they will) Gabe's deal could go even higher.

[newcam2012]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That WAS a weakness at draft time. It isn't so much now. His release package is the biggest area of improvement he has made as a pro and it is very noticeable. 

 

His weaknesses are that he isn't a big separator and that is attributable somewhat to his stiffness and lack of short area burst and his hands which have not been good enough and must get better. Especially for a "bigger" receiver. I don't think he always plays his size in contested catch situations and he doesn't come down with enough of those balls. 

 

His strengths are that he is faster than he looks when he can long stride, he runs the go route, the post and the comeback really well, his get off (as above) is now pretty good and he has excellent body control. He is also a willing blocker in the run game. 

 

Not sure what the WR market will look like in free agency next year. On the face of it the group doesn't look that strong. Tee Higgins, Mike Evans and Michael Pittman are the three outside receivers Gabe would be out there in the market against as it stands and I still expect Pittman and the Colts to come to an agreement before the end of camp. On that basis I think Gabe can expect to be in the $13m - $15m range. But if either Higgins or Evans were to extend as well (not sure they will) Gabe's deal could go even higher.

Nice breakdown Gunner. I think your assessment is accurate.

 

Gabe is going to get paid. The WR market is extremely costly for teams. I believe a team will over pay for him. Will it be the Bills?

 

As for me, I believe Gabe is replaceable. I don't see him as a difference maker. He's a nice WR 3/4. It doesn't hurt that he's likeable and by all accounts a hard worker. I believe Allen absolutely makes him better. 

 

Of course a lot will depend on how Davis plays this year. BB certainly seems to be infatuated with him. Money will again be tight. At this point, I'm not convinced Gabe is worth that type of salary. Bills fans certainly seem to gravitate towards Gabe. 

[BananaB]

Seems like Beane is throwing darts blindfolded hoping to get another WR Allen can rely on. Gabes not that guy but he is easily the best WR we have after Diggs.