"Running QBs Don't Last" - The Historical Record, and Why Everyone Wants Josh to Change His Game

[Nextmanup]

On 7/26/2023 at 6:08 PM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

The vast majority of these guys weren't good QBs regardless of age or running frequency. Young is a HOF and the most obvious exception as you pointed out. Wilson may still rebound and I doubt his decline has anything to do with running. He was sacked relentlessly behind a bad Seahawks oline the last two years he was there. And I dont think he cares about football anymore. 

Excluding Rodgers and Roethlisberger skews the data set. Both were mobile guys that moved around a lot in the early part of their careers. 

Totally agree with you; the entire analysis is foolish and filled with error.

 

I love the pool of players examined, as though they all have "running QB" tattooed on their forehead.

 

Who says who is a running QB?  What is a running QB?

 

I would define this list as "mediocre QBs who were good enough to last in the league a long time."

 

For that reason alone, I wouldn't apply anything you draw from it to Josh Allen.

 

 

[Cash]

On 2/1/2024 at 11:35 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

Lol, I do not believe in any of this. The game has changed. If Josh doesn’t run, he isn’t nearly as effective. We should have NEVER talked about limiting his carries. Let Josh be Josh. If the Bills are going to reach their goals, in this era, it’ll be because Josh Allen took them there. He’s the franchise and that’s more true now than at any point since he got here. Go play his game and let the chips fall where they may. 

I think we should limit the designed runs in the regular season. (And we have, for early season at least.) I completely trust Allen’s judgment when it comes to scrambling, and don’t want the coaches messing him up by harping on it too much. 

[Kirby Jackson]

On 2/2/2024 at 1:13 PM, Cash said:

I think we should limit the designed runs in the regular season. (And we have, for early season at least.) I completely trust Allen’s judgment when it comes to scrambling, and don’t want the coaches messing him up by harping on it too much. 

I understand the perspective. I just don’t necessarily agree. Every win matters in terms of playoff seeding. I’d just assume that the Bills don’t worry about something bad potentially happening and they attack. Score as many points as you can. Perhaps, it has the reverse effect and the Bills score so many points that he doesn’t need to finish the games because of the lead? That’s a different way to avoid him taking hits. 

Edited February 7 by Kirby Jackson

[HappyDays]

50 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I understand the perspective. I just don’t necessarily disagree. Every win matters in terms of playoff seeding. I’d just assume that the Bills don’t worry about something bad potentially happening and they attack. Score as many points as you can. Perhaps, it has the reverse effect and the Bills score so many points that he doesn’t need to finish the games because of the lead? That’s a different way to avoid him taking hits. 

 

Or we lock up our seed early and get to rest our starters in week 18 like the Chiefs did this past year. Or even finish with the #1 seed for the first time ever under McDermott, by escaping those persistent mid-season lulls.

 

I hope this past season has caused a lot of people to re-think their mindset of "just get to the playoffs and we'll be fine." Nothing is guaranteed in this league and getting to avoid KC until the conference championship is worth pursuing.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I understand the perspective. I just don’t necessarily disagree. Every win matters in terms of playoff seeding. I’d just assume that the Bills don’t worry about something bad potentially happening and they attack. Score as many points as you can. Perhaps, it has the reverse effect and the Bills score so many points that he doesn’t need to finish the games because of the lead? That’s a different way to avoid him taking hits. 

 

The last 3 years they have tried the limit the runs until about week 11 or 12 and then gone to it down the stretch. Was has happened each year? There have been to a lesser or greater extent offensive wobbles early / mid season. 

 

I think they need to scrap that plan. Just let Josh play his natural game. He isn't Tom Brady. He is Josh Allen. He plays better when he feels free to run.

21 hours ago, 1onemangang7 said:

Josh Allen is the onemangang that's what it's about. I'm not. Jim Kelly says it Steve Young says and plenty have said it on here. The fan base is mostly Billievers. God bless them, but I'm trying to be a realist and avoid the rabbit holes that have used up a half or more of the career of the hardest piece. I disagree that he's not a pocket passer. So that's that, and he should pick up yards when a play breaks down. He shouldn't have to male up for the negative rushing plays he so often has to as they are behind the sticks quite often when Cook gets thrown for a loss. Stop trying to make Josh convert every 3rd or 4th and 2 by design with his legs and get someone that defenses get tired of tackling. Cook isn't very imposing or the kind that can tire a defense out. . 

Nice demeaning intro. Use that one on your wife. 

 

The rb debate has gone on in here for years, maybe I'm the only one that persists and demand Beane be better. I can't answer for them but they're out there.

 

You are just wrong on James Cook.

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The last 3 years they have tried the limit the runs until about week 11 or 12 and then gone to it down the stretch. Was has happened each year? There have been to a lesser or greater extent offensive wobbles early / mid season. 

 

I think they need to scrap that plan. Just let Josh play his natural game. He isn't Tom Brady. He is Josh Allen. He plays better when he feels free to run.

 

The only thing Josh needs to do more in the early/mid part of the season is be willing to slide. Save lowering the shoulder and hurdling defenders for December and January. But he should always feel free to take off running when he wants to. I've never understood fans (and the coaching staff) that want to limit his running ability at any point in the season. As long as he slides after picking up the 1st, who cares?

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The only thing Josh needs to do more in the early/mid part of the season is be willing to slide. Save lowering the shoulder and hurdling defenders for December and January. But he should always feel free to take off running when he wants to. I've never understood fans (and the coaching staff) that want to limit his running ability at any point in the season. As long as he slides after picking up the 1st, who cares?

 

Agree although getting Josh to slide is easier said than done. He just has that gamer in him and in the heat of the battle I am not sure you are stopping him.

[Thrivefourfive]

On 7/26/2023 at 2:34 PM, The Frankish Reich said:

So we've all heard it. Josh Allen needs to change his game, become more of a pocket passer, less inclined to take off running. His longevity depends on it. Does it?

The sample is small, and many of the leaders on the yards per game board are still young and active.

 

But it's not promising.

 

Bottom line: since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33. [Exception: weird, inexplicable Randall Cunningham comeback at 35, but that happened in 1998.] Historically, you'd probably expect most QBs to run out of gas in their mid-30s. But we're now in the age of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning(s) playing into their late 30s or 40s, and yet no actual running (not "mobile" or "scrambling" - we're talking about the guys who pull it down and take off downfield) QB has made it past 33. Many were done in their 20s. 

 

These are the post-2000 QBs who either averaged 30 yards per game running over at least a couple seasons of starts, or who had at least one 500+ yard rushing season or multiple 400+ yard rushing seasons in their careers. (No, Rodgers and Mahomes have never had even a single 400 yard rushing season)

 

1. Lamar Jackson. 63.4 rushing yards per game. 26 years old. Still active. Poor injury history.

2. Justin Fields. 57.9 yards per game. 24 years old. Too soon to tell.

3. Mike Vick. 42.7 yards per game. Basically done as a starter by Age 33 season (even with missing 2 years due to suspension)

4. Jalen Hurts. 42.2 yards per game. 24. Too soon to tell.

5. Josh Allen. 40.1 yards per game. 27. Too soon to tell.

6. Kyler Murray. 38.7 yards per game. 25. Too soon to tell

7. Cam Newton. 38.0 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 30 season.

8. Colin Kaepernick. 33.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 28. [**Big Asterisk]

9. Robert Griffin III. 32.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 24. Devastating knee injury.

10. Daniel Jones. 31.6 yards per game. 26. Too soon to tell.

11. Deshaun Watson. 30.9 yards per game. 27 Too soon to tell (but not looking promising) [*Little Asterisk]

12. Randall Cunningham. 30.6 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter at 31. But then with a weird, non-running QB career year at 35. Then done again at 36.

13. Russell Wilson. 28.7 yards per game, but  four 500 yard-plus rushing seasons by age 29, including one 800 yard season. Effectively done at 33 (unless there's a surprise return to form under Sean Payton?)

14. Kordell Stewart. 23 yards per game [value decreased by early "slash" years], with four 400+, one 500+ rushing seson by age 29. Done as a starter by Age 30.

15. Tyrod Taylor. 25.6 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 500+ yard rushing season with the Bills. Constant injuries since.  Done as a starter by Age 28.

13. Donovan McNabb. 20.7 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 26. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

14. Steve McNair. 22.3 yards per game, but five 400+ yard, one 500+ yard, and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 29. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

15. Daunte Culpepper. 25.3 yards per game, but five 400+ seasons, one 600+ rushing season by age 27. Done as a starter by age 28.

16. Vince Young. 24.3 yards per game, but rookie season 500+ yards rushing. Done completely by age 28. [*I feel like he should get the world's tiniest asterisk, but I'm not sure why]

 

THE GREAT EXCEPTION

17. Steve Young (included here even though he'd retired after 1999, and was before everyone else's time). 25.1 yards per game, but four 400+yard, one 500+ yard rushing seasons by age 32. Made it all the way to Age 37 as a top-flight starter, even rushing for 454 yards that year. Like I said: The Great Exception.

Young is an exceptional player, but he doesn’t last as long if he didn’t ride pine for so long and play in the west coast offensive. It explains some of why he was so exceptional.