"Running QBs Don't Last" - The Historical Record, and Why Everyone Wants Josh to Change His Game

[JoshAllin]

Alex Smith may have lasted awhile if not for the injury

[1onemangang7]

19 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Any way you try to slice it, anyone who finishes their campaign 4th in the entire NFL in rushing is a "legit RB1"

 

We're ~52 million over the cap, need to find starters at WR, DE, DT, and S and a whole ton of depth - with 22 players hitting the market (and more that will need to be cut to clear space).

 

And you want to "spend a buck" to replace our young Pro Bowl RB? Yeah, that's just crazy talk.

I don't care, laugh. Its fans like you that keep the team right where they are. You profess forever and cause Beane was hired you back him and praise any move he makes. Forever schnuck.

Edited February 1 by 1onemangang7

[BillsFanForever19]

21 minutes ago, 1onemangang7 said:

Yep. Cause there's been 58 superbowls and not 1 has been won by a team with the best runner being the qb. 

 

So you're quoting statistics to make your insane argument, but then choose to ignore them at the same time? Statistics would say Josh Allen wasn't the best runner on the team this season and it will be the same next season.

 

21 minutes ago, 1onemangang7 said:

 Lemme guess you think Purdy is legit mvp also? Would you swap qbs? Would you swap rbs with Frisco, this board is full of Cook comparisons to McCaffrey based on numbers. With as many negative plays as he has his highlight reel should look like Barry Sanders' according to you Homer's. 

 

.... what are you even on about? How are you jumping to these conclusions?

 

15 minutes ago, 1onemangang7 said:

I don't care, laugh. Its fans like you thar keep the team right where they are. You profess forever and cause Beane was hired you back him and praise any move he makes. Forever schnuck.

 

Oh, I think I see what's happening here. You shouldn't drink and post. Also, it's going to be okay. Everything's going to be okay.

Edited February 1 by BillsFanForever19

[1onemangang7]

16 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

So you're quoting statistics to make your insane argument, but then choose to ignore them at the same time? Statistics would say Josh Allen isn't the best runner on the team this season and it will be the same next season.

 

 

.... what are you even on about? How are you jumping to these conclusions?

 

 

Oh, I think I see what's happening here. You shouldn't drink and post. Also, it's going to be okay. Everything's going to be okay.

Base it off your stats. If you were to have a hypothetical draft of all the qbs whom would you pick Purdy ahead of? What number? The comparison is fair to compensate for your Homer affection for Cook that you can't seem to get past. Now out of all the running backs who are you going to pick Cook ahead of . . Remember your argument of the 4th best rusher in the league.  Hahahahahah Purdy is statistically number 1.. uno..best

Edited February 1 by 1onemangang7

[BillsFanForever19]

15 minutes ago, 1onemangang7 said:

Base it off your stats. If you were to have a hypothetical draft of all the qbs whom would you pick Purdy ahead of? What number? The comparison is fair to compensate for your Homer affection for Cook that you can't seem to get past. Now out of all the running backs who are you going to pick Cook ahead of . . Remember your argument of the 4th best rusher in the league.  Hahahahahah

 

My dude, you're the one quoting statistics about Rushing QB's and no QB that leads his team in Rushing having ever won one. Yet stats say he doesn't lead the team in Rushing.

 

And with Cook finishing the year with 1122 yards on the ground and Allen at 524, there were more games were Allen wasn't the leading rusher than was.

 

And why do you keep bringing up Purdy? I don't get what you're going on about. Whatever it is, he and his team are in the Super Bowl this year. So like, I don't know, that's pretty good? 

 

I just find it hilarious that you're talking down a guy that was 4th in Rushing and voted to the Pro Bowl by his peers. Universally praised by analysts. Mine is not a "homer" take. It's pretty much the consensus.

Edited February 1 by BillsFanForever19

[1onemangang7]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

My dude, you're the one quoting statistics about Rushing QB's and no QB that leads his team in Rushing having ever won one. Yet stats say he doesn't lead the team in Rushing.

 

And with Cook finishing the year with 1122 yards on the ground and Allen at 524, there were more games were Allen wasn't the leading rusher than was.

 

And why do you keep bringing up Purdy? I don't get what you're going on about. Whatever it is, he and his team are in the Super Bowl this year. So like, that's pretty good? I don't know.

 

I just find it hilarious that you're talking down a guy that was 4th in Rushing and voted to the Pro Bowl by his peers. Universally praised by analysts. Mine is not a "homer" take. It's pretty much the consensus.

That consensus is here only and it's a problem. It's consensus acceptance of mediocrity. The December winds in Orchard Park dictate advantages of a running game. Beane puts in on the qb. If he's lucky the game is at Indianapolis. I don't care about his garbage time 1100 yards paved by the work of the qb. When you hit the playoffs and your dude, I am not your dude, is growing weary your 1100 yard scat back is setting you backwards 3 and 4 yards a pop.

[BillsFanForever19]

16 minutes ago, 1onemangang7 said:

That consensus is here only and it's a problem. It's consensus acceptance of mediocrity. The December winds in Orchard Park dictate advantages of a running game. Beane puts in on the qb. If he's lucky the game is at Indianapolis. I don't care about his garbage time 1100 yards paved by the work of the qb. When you hit the playoffs and your dude, I am not your dude, is growing weary your 1100 yard scat back is setting you backwards 3 and 4 yards a pop.

 

It's not just the consensus here.

 

Listen to analysts talk about him. His own peers league wide voted him to the Pro Bowl. Garbage time? Watch the Cowboys game for example. He was the entire offense, start to finish.

 

Literally no analyst of football of sound mind is looking at James Cook and saying "he's a problem, they need to find someone to replace him". And in the condition this team is in cap wise and the holes we have, it's an even crazier proposition.

 

Hope you have a good night though. You seem a little wound up. Take a couple deep breaths.

Edited February 1 by BillsFanForever19

[1onemangang7]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

It's not just the consensus here.

 

Listen to analysts talk about him. His own peers league wide voted him to the Pro Bowl. Garbage time? Watch the Cowboys game for example. He was the entire offense, start to finish.

 

Literally no one of sound mind is looking at James Cook and saying "he's a problem, they need to find someone to replace him". And in the condition this team is in cap wise and the holes we have, it's an even crazier proposition.

 

Hope you have a good night though. You seem a little wound up. Take 

Analyst like retired hof qbs who proclaim the same thing  every year they punk out of the playoffs due to a weak ground game? Josh Allen's 7th year and not once matched in the backfield. You listen to analysts like Romo promoting a live event and buy it. Fans like you are part of the problem and Beane along with McDermott are forever grateful 

 

Name your offseason additions without dollar limitations and it doesn't mean anything if the qb is still the run game.

[Warcodered]

8 hours ago, 1onemangang7 said:

The answer is simple. Spend a buck on a legit RB 1

Oh good does that mean the new Breece Hall thread is starting soon. 🙄

[Big Turk]

On 7/26/2023 at 5:34 PM, The Frankish Reich said:

So we've all heard it. Josh Allen needs to change his game, become more of a pocket passer, less inclined to take off running. His longevity depends on it. Does it?

The sample is small, and many of the leaders on the yards per game board are still young and active.

 

But it's not promising.

 

Bottom line: since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33. [Exception: weird, inexplicable Randall Cunningham comeback at 35, but that happened in 1998.] Historically, you'd probably expect most QBs to run out of gas in their mid-30s. But we're now in the age of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning(s) playing into their late 30s or 40s, and yet no actual running (not "mobile" or "scrambling" - we're talking about the guys who pull it down and take off downfield) QB has made it past 33. Many were done in their 20s. 

 

These are the post-2000 QBs who either averaged 30 yards per game running over at least a couple seasons of starts, or who had at least one 500+ yard rushing season or multiple 400+ yard rushing seasons in their careers. (No, Rodgers and Mahomes have never had even a single 400 yard rushing season)

 

1. Lamar Jackson. 63.4 rushing yards per game. 26 years old. Still active. Poor injury history.

2. Justin Fields. 57.9 yards per game. 24 years old. Too soon to tell.

3. Mike Vick. 42.7 yards per game. Basically done as a starter by Age 33 season (even with missing 2 years due to suspension)

4. Jalen Hurts. 42.2 yards per game. 24. Too soon to tell.

5. Josh Allen. 40.1 yards per game. 27. Too soon to tell.

6. Kyler Murray. 38.7 yards per game. 25. Too soon to tell

7. Cam Newton. 38.0 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 30 season.

8. Colin Kaepernick. 33.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 28. [**Big Asterisk]

9. Robert Griffin III. 32.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 24. Devastating knee injury.

10. Daniel Jones. 31.6 yards per game. 26. Too soon to tell.

11. Deshaun Watson. 30.9 yards per game. 27 Too soon to tell (but not looking promising) [*Little Asterisk]

12. Randall Cunningham. 30.6 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter at 31. But then with a weird, non-running QB career year at 35. Then done again at 36.

13. Russell Wilson. 28.7 yards per game, but  four 500 yard-plus rushing seasons by age 29, including one 800 yard season. Effectively done at 33 (unless there's a surprise return to form under Sean Payton?)

14. Kordell Stewart. 23 yards per game [value decreased by early "slash" years], with four 400+, one 500+ rushing seson by age 29. Done as a starter by Age 30.

15. Tyrod Taylor. 25.6 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 500+ yard rushing season with the Bills. Constant injuries since.  Done as a starter by Age 28.

13. Donovan McNabb. 20.7 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 26. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

14. Steve McNair. 22.3 yards per game, but five 400+ yard, one 500+ yard, and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 29. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

15. Daunte Culpepper. 25.3 yards per game, but five 400+ seasons, one 600+ rushing season by age 27. Done as a starter by age 28.

16. Vince Young. 24.3 yards per game, but rookie season 500+ yards rushing. Done completely by age 28. [*I feel like he should get the world's tiniest asterisk, but I'm not sure why]

 

THE GREAT EXCEPTION

17. Steve Young (included here even though he'd retired after 1999, and was before everyone else's time). 25.1 yards per game, but four 400+yard, one 500+ yard rushing seasons by age 32. Made it all the way to Age 37 as a top-flight starter, even rushing for 454 yards that year. Like I said: The Great Exception.

 

Cam Newton was derailed mostly by a shoulder injury suffered in a car wreck that he never fully recovered from NOT an on-field incident.

People conveniently leave this out when discussing his decline.

 

Most of this is really meaningless to be honest. Allen is not any of these other players, he is Allen.  He also takes far fewer hits/sacks while in the pocket than the majority of these other players and usually is the one dishing out the contact rather than absorbing it, which also helps in terms of injuries/damage. 

 

For many of these QBs, they had major flaws as passers that were exposed once teams forced them to play from the pocket and stopped making it so easy for them to run.  Defenses never had to adjust out of that because they couldn't beat them from the pocket if they were forced too.  Allen can. Wilson was forced out of the only "system" he ever knew and forced to run a system that was ill suited for his abilities.  He went from being allowed wide ranging improvisational and off-schedule creating capabilities to being forced to play within structure and on-schedule. He was terrible last year, but honestly decent this year, finishing with 26 TDs, 8 INTs and a 98 QB Rating this year despite being benched mainly for contractual reasons.

 

Convenient you leave out John Elway(who many DC's say Allen is a much bigger, faster, stronger version of), and who played in a much rougher era, absorbed far more hits and played well into his late 30s, winning his two Super Bowls towards the end of his career.

 

Same for Fran Tarkenton who played until he was 38 and was one of the "original" running QBs. Again in a much rougher era and with no protections afforded like today's QBs get.

 

This is a model example of how the selective use of statistics can show anything you want to and you can come up with something you want to "prove" and then do so using them in a certain way to back your points but leaving out anything that detracts from them. The saying "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics" was created for you, my good Sir.

Edited February 1 by Big Turk

[1onemangang7]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

Oh good does that mean the new Breece Hall thread is starting soon. 🙄

That's a good question. Whomever would start it knows his Bills. It won't be me because either league mandated or other reasons I don't believe Beane will do it. It seems a no brainer decision but so does kicking a chip shot field goal for a three score lead. For whatever reason the high paid brain trust on nfl teams make decisions that most arm chair fans can easily see the error.

[Kirby Jackson]

Lol, I do not believe in any of this. The game has changed. If Josh doesn’t run, he isn’t nearly as effective. We should have NEVER talked about limiting his carries. Let Josh be Josh. If the Bills are going to reach their goals, in this era, it’ll be because Josh Allen took them there. He’s the franchise and that’s more true now than at any point since he got here. Go play his game and let the chips fall where they may. 

[T master]

You list 1 running QB that lasted to age 37 what about the others that used their running ability and lasted for a pretty good while ?

 

 2 big ones right off the top of my head that you left out are Elway, he played till he was 38 and was great at that age & Favre he was 41 and he took some beatings but always seem to come back from them all but the last one he got from Arthur Moats .

 

Then their are the guys like Fran Tarkington that took a lot of hits he was 38 & none of the 3 mentioned had the protection from getting hit in the rules like they do today plus they did 2 a days & it was a much more physical league back then so it's a bit different all the way around .

 

Heck the one QB i think Josh most resembles in mobility, arm strength, and in general just how they play the game is Arron Rogers . Rogers will play next year he will be 41 so I think the Bills and Josh will have a long relationship even if Josh plays like Josh .

 

GO BILLS !!!

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Lol, I do not believe in any of this. The game has changed. If Josh doesn’t run, he isn’t nearly as effective. We should have NEVER talked about limiting his carries. Let Josh be Josh. If the Bills are going to reach their goals, in this era, it’ll be because Josh Allen took them there. He’s the franchise and that’s more true now than at any point since he got here. Go play his game and let the chips fall where they may. 

 

 

Yeah but they can't run him 9 times per game all season like they just did under Brady.

 

200 carries needed to win a SB isn't feasible.

 

They have had the right idea early in seasons........save Josh's running for late season/playoffs.........but they just haven't been able to execute it like they did in 2020 because they haven't had the playmakers around him to do so.

 

The Bills need to invest in the talent around him.   Instead of hoping to find their WR2(Davis) and WR3(Shakir) in the 4th and 5th rounds they need to find equivalent defensive players in those rounds instead. 

[hondo in seattle]

It's true that most running QBs don't last long in the NFL.  But most passing QBs don't either.   It's not called the Not-For-Long league for nothing.  

 

Is there data that says the more a QB runs, the more games he loses to injury?   Or the more he runs, the shorter his career?

 

Argument by anecdote doesn't cut it.  

 

I think you also have to consider the frequency and quality of the contact.  Immobile QBs with poor vision  often get hammered in the pocket.  Josh doesn't get sacked a lot because he's elusive and I'm not sure he's taking more hard hits than the average QB.  

 

Edited February 1 by hondo in seattle

[Lost]

52 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Immobile QBs with poor vision  often get hammered in the pocket.  Josh doesn't get sacked a lot because he's elusive and I'm not sure he's taking more hard hits than the average QB.  

 

 

 

That reminds me,  how is Mike White doing these days? 🤔🤣

 

[LABILLBACKER]

I could very easily see Josh have a similar journey as Steve Young or Elway.  Josh is not hanging them up at 33/34. But he's also unlikely to play till 40.  I realistically see 17 playing till 37/38.  

[BillsFanForever19]

11 hours ago, 1onemangang7 said:

Analyst like retired hof qbs who proclaim the same thing  every year they punk out of the playoffs due to a weak ground game? Josh Allen's 7th year and not once matched in the backfield. You listen to analysts like Romo promoting a live event and buy it. Fans like you are part of the problem and Beane along with McDermott are forever grateful 

 

Name your offseason additions without dollar limitations and it doesn't mean anything if the qb is still the run game.

 

4 hours ago, 1onemangang7 said:

That's a good question. Whomever would start it knows his Bills. It won't be me because either league mandated or other reasons I don't believe Beane will do it. It seems a no brainer decision but so does kicking a chip shot field goal for a three score lead. For whatever reason the high paid brain trust on nfl teams make decisions that most arm chair fans can easily see the error.

 

Good morning. Hope you got a good nights rest and have calmed down a bit.

 

So our fans are wrong? The fans of other teams are wrong? The players in the NFL are wrong? The analysts are wrong? It's just you who's right then? Replacing Cook as RB1 is the exact opposite of a "no brainer decision". Please show me "most arm chair fans (who) can easily see the error" of having James Cook as RB1 this season. Not only is it not "most" - as far as I can tell, you're a "onemangang".

 

You keep saying Josh is the main rusher. But that's just false. Of the 2,212 yards of total rushing this season - Josh accounted for 524 of them. That's less than 25%. Should he account for zero? Josh Allen is not a pocket QB. He doesn't have the pinpoint accuracy to just sit back and throw it every play. If you remove his abiity to pick up first downs with his legs when things break down, you're nerfing the hell out of him and our offense. I don't care who we have in the backfield, Josh is going to run it if there's an open lane and he should.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

On 7/26/2023 at 11:34 AM, The Frankish Reich said:

So we've all heard it. Josh Allen needs to change his game, become more of a pocket passer, less inclined to take off running. His longevity depends on it. Does it?

The sample is small, and many of the leaders on the yards per game board are still young and active.

 

But it's not promising.

 

Bottom line: since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33. [Exception: weird, inexplicable Randall Cunningham comeback at 35, but that happened in 1998.] Historically, you'd probably expect most QBs to run out of gas in their mid-30s. But we're now in the age of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning(s) playing into their late 30s or 40s, and yet no actual running (not "mobile" or "scrambling" - we're talking about the guys who pull it down and take off downfield) QB has made it past 33. Many were done in their 20s. 

 

These are the post-2000 QBs who either averaged 30 yards per game running over at least a couple seasons of starts, or who had at least one 500+ yard rushing season or multiple 400+ yard rushing seasons in their careers. (No, Rodgers and Mahomes have never had even a single 400 yard rushing season)

 

1. Lamar Jackson. 63.4 rushing yards per game. 26 years old. Still active. Poor injury history.

2. Justin Fields. 57.9 yards per game. 24 years old. Too soon to tell.

3. Mike Vick. 42.7 yards per game. Basically done as a starter by Age 33 season (even with missing 2 years due to suspension)

4. Jalen Hurts. 42.2 yards per game. 24. Too soon to tell.

5. Josh Allen. 40.1 yards per game. 27. Too soon to tell.

6. Kyler Murray. 38.7 yards per game. 25. Too soon to tell

7. Cam Newton. 38.0 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 30 season.

8. Colin Kaepernick. 33.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 28. [**Big Asterisk]

9. Robert Griffin III. 32.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 24. Devastating knee injury.

10. Daniel Jones. 31.6 yards per game. 26. Too soon to tell.

11. Deshaun Watson. 30.9 yards per game. 27 Too soon to tell (but not looking promising) [*Little Asterisk]

12. Randall Cunningham. 30.6 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter at 31. But then with a weird, non-running QB career year at 35. Then done again at 36.

13. Russell Wilson. 28.7 yards per game, but  four 500 yard-plus rushing seasons by age 29, including one 800 yard season. Effectively done at 33 (unless there's a surprise return to form under Sean Payton?)

14. Kordell Stewart. 23 yards per game [value decreased by early "slash" years], with four 400+, one 500+ rushing seson by age 29. Done as a starter by Age 30.

15. Tyrod Taylor. 25.6 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 500+ yard rushing season with the Bills. Constant injuries since.  Done as a starter by Age 28.

13. Donovan McNabb. 20.7 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 26. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

14. Steve McNair. 22.3 yards per game, but five 400+ yard, one 500+ yard, and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 29. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

15. Daunte Culpepper. 25.3 yards per game, but five 400+ seasons, one 600+ rushing season by age 27. Done as a starter by age 28.

16. Vince Young. 24.3 yards per game, but rookie season 500+ yards rushing. Done completely by age 28. [*I feel like he should get the world's tiniest asterisk, but I'm not sure why]

 

THE GREAT EXCEPTION

17. Steve Young (included here even though he'd retired after 1999, and was before everyone else's time). 25.1 yards per game, but four 400+yard, one 500+ yard rushing seasons by age 32. Made it all the way to Age 37 as a top-flight starter, even rushing for 454 yards that year. Like I said: The Great Exception.

 

You need to compare Allen to similar body types.  Basically compare him with Cam Newton, Steve McNair, Colin Kaepernick and John Elway.  I think those are the only real "running" QBs Allen aligns with.  I think McNair and Kaep just weren't all that great, anyway.  And Newton was undone by shoulder surgeries and a dead arm.  

 

Elway should really be your great exception.  Unlike Steve Young, Elway played every single year of his long career and was the Super Bowl MVP in the last game of his career.

 

I think Allen aligns with Elway the most in terms of just about everything.

[1onemangang7]

19 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

 

Good morning. Hope you got a good nights rest and have calmed down a bit.

 

So our fans are wrong? The fans of other teams are wrong? The players in the NFL are wrong? The analysts are wrong? It's just you who's right then? Replacing Cook as RB1 is the exact opposite of a "no brainer decision". Please show me "most arm chair fans (who) can easily see the error" of having James Cook as RB1 this season. Not only is it not "most" - as far as I can tell, you're a "onemangang".

 

You keep saying Josh is the main rusher. But that's just false. Of the 2,212 yards of total rushing this season - Josh accounted for 524 of them. That's less than 25%. Should he account for zero? Josh Allen is not a pocket QB. He doesn't have the pinpoint accuracy to just sit back and throw it every play. If you remove his abiity to pick up first downs with his legs when things break down, you're nerfing the hell out of him and our offense. I don't care who we have in the backfield, Josh is going to run it if there's an open lane and he should.

 

Josh Allen is the onemangang that's what it's about. I'm not. Jim Kelly says it Steve Young says and plenty have said it on here. The fan base is mostly Billievers. God bless them, but I'm trying to be a realist and avoid the rabbit holes that have used up a half or more of the career of the hardest piece. I disagree that he's not a pocket passer. So that's that, and he should pick up yards when a play breaks down. He shouldn't have to male up for the negative rushing plays he so often has to as they are behind the sticks quite often when Cook gets thrown for a loss. Stop trying to make Josh convert every 3rd or 4th and 2 by design with his legs and get someone that defenses get tired of tackling. Cook isn't very imposing or the kind that can tire a defense out. . 

Nice demeaning intro. Use that one on your wife. 

 

The rb debate has gone on in here for years, maybe I'm the only one that persists and demand Beane be better. I can't answer for them but they're out there.