"Running QBs Don't Last" - The Historical Record, and Why Everyone Wants Josh to Change His Game

[Chaos]

13 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Good question.

I thought about that. The quick answer is: that's why I limited the list to QBs who racked up a lot of rushing yards over at least two full seasons. In other words, starting QBs who had some record of success. There are a lot of non-running QBs who would meet a similar threshold for passes thrown/passing yards per game, etc., who washed out equally young. Think EJ Manuel. I'm not sure there's a good way to control for this.

So as far as we know, being a running QB may not have any meaningful statistical impact on career length. 

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, Chaos said:

So as far as we know, being a running QB may not have any meaningful statistical impact on career length. 

Maybe. I'll admit that.

But a lot of the guys on the list weren't EJ Manuels. They were top QBs in their prime years. We are talking about guys like Culpepper, Wilson, McNabb, Newton. What surprised me is that not a single one of them lasted as an effective QB past age 34. I had to go back a quarter century to find Steve Young as the outlier.

So fair criticism. But I still think there's something there. And obviously Allen and his coaches think there's something there too.

[Chicken Boo]

5 hours ago, Doc said:

 

All I saw after doing a search yesterday was a "mild knee sprain" after that hit.

 

You're never going to get the truth out of the team.  Look no futher than Tua vs the Bills last year.

 

"Grades 1 Mild Ligament Tear: There is minimal microscopic tearing to the ACL, but the ACL remains intact.

 

Grade 2 Moderate Ligament Tear: There is a moderate amount of tearing to the ACL, but again the ACL remain intact.

 

Grade 3 Torn or Ruptured Ligament: The ligament has torn in a manner that the ligament is only partially intact or is no longer intact at all.

 

Therefore, an ACL sprain is a Grade 1 or 2 injury to the ACL." - Athletico

 

It was likely a grade 2 sprain, which led to the eventual full tear.  Point is, he shouldn't have been allowed to play.  (And Dr. Andrews was the team doctor)

 

 

[SoTier]

On 7/26/2023 at 5:34 PM, The Frankish Reich said:

since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33.So we've all heard it. Josh Allen needs to change his game, become more of a pocket passer, less inclined to take off running. His longevity depends on it. Does it?

The sample is small, and many of the leaders on the yards per game board are still young and active.

 

But it's not promising.

 

Bottom line: since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33. [Exception: weird, inexplicable Randall Cunningham comeback at 35, but that happened in 1998.] Historically, you'd probably expect most QBs to run out of gas in their mid-30s. But we're now in the age of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning(s) playing into their late 30s or 40s, and yet no actual running (not "mobile" or "scrambling" - we're talking about the guys who pull it down and take off downfield) QB has made it past 33. Many were done in their 20s. 

 

These are the post-2000 QBs who either averaged 30 yards per game running over at least a couple seasons of starts, or who had at least one 500+ yard rushing season or multiple 400+ yard rushing seasons in their careers. (No, Rodgers and Mahomes have never had even a single 400 yard rushing season)

 

1. Lamar Jackson. 63.4 rushing yards per game. 26 years old. Still active. Poor injury history.

2. Justin Fields. 57.9 yards per game. 24 years old. Too soon to tell.

3. Mike Vick. 42.7 yards per game. Basically done as a starter by Age 33 season (even with missing 2 years due to suspension)

4. Jalen Hurts. 42.2 yards per game. 24. Too soon to tell.

5. Josh Allen. 40.1 yards per game. 27. Too soon to tell.

6. Kyler Murray. 38.7 yards per game. 25. Too soon to tell

7. Cam Newton. 38.0 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 30 season.

8. Colin Kaepernick. 33.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 28. [**Big Asterisk]

9. Robert Griffin III. 32.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 24. Devastating knee injury.

10. Daniel Jones. 31.6 yards per game. 26. Too soon to tell.

11. Deshaun Watson. 30.9 yards per game. 27 Too soon to tell (but not looking promising) [*Little Asterisk]

12. Randall Cunningham. 30.6 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter at 31. But then with a weird, non-running QB career year at 35. Then done again at 36.

13. Russell Wilson. 28.7 yards per game, but  four 500 yard-plus rushing seasons by age 29, including one 800 yard season. Effectively done at 33 (unless there's a surprise return to form under Sean Payton?)

14. Kordell Stewart. 23 yards per game [value decreased by early "slash" years], with four 400+, one 500+ rushing seson by age 29. Done as a starter by Age 30.

15. Tyrod Taylor. 25.6 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 500+ yard rushing season with the Bills. Constant injuries since.  Done as a starter by Age 28.

13. Donovan McNabb. 20.7 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 26. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

14. Steve McNair. 22.3 yards per game, but five 400+ yard, one 500+ yard, and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 29. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34.

15. Daunte Culpepper. 25.3 yards per game, but five 400+ seasons, one 600+ rushing season by age 27. Done as a starter by age 28.

16. Vince Young. 24.3 yards per game, but rookie season 500+ yards rushing. Done completely by age 28. [*I feel like he should get the world's tiniest asterisk, but I'm not sure why]

 

THE GREAT EXCEPTION

17. Steve Young (included here even though he'd retired after 1999, and was before everyone else's time). 25.1 yards per game, but four 400+yard, one 500+ yard rushing seasons by age 32. Made it all the way to Age 37 as a top-flight starter, even rushing for 454 yards that year. Like I said: The Great Exception.

 

Your statement, " since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33" doesn't actually mean very much.  Most pocket QBs, even starters, aren't particularly effective starters past age 33, either.  Most QBs enter the NFL when they're 21 or 22, which means that they would have to be in the league for 11 or 12 years, yet you include numerous QBs who aren't old enough to be part of your sample. 

 

Most QBs, whether passers or runners, don't have 11 or 12 year careers.  I looked at the 43 QBs drafted in the first round between 1998 and 2012, meaning that they all could have the ability to play at least 10 years, and would have been the QB prospects given the most opportunity to become starters early in their careers.  Only 21 of these 43 QBs (49%) had careers that lasted at least 10 years.   Only 14 of the 43 QBs were starters for 10 or more seasons (33%).  Only 9 of these QBs were starters every year they played (P Manning, McNabb, Palmer, Roethlisberger,  Alex Smith, Cutler, Ryan, Stafford, and Tannehill).  Phillip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers both sat on the bench for 2 and 3 years, respectively, before they became starters and Eli Manning was benched in his last year, so there were 12 first round QBs who were "career starters" over a decade or more in the NFL (28%).

 

There are numerous reasons why QBs fail to have long NFL careers.   Mostly, they simply aren't talented enough.  Sometimes they don't apply themselves to improving their skills.  Sometimes they have/develop substance abuse problems.  Sometimes other off-field issues, including mental health problems, short-circuit careers.  Of course, even "pocket passers" can have their careers shortened by injury, with Andrew Luck being the poster-boy for injury shortening a career.

Edited July 28, 2023 by SoTier

[Nephilim17]

I think the debate here is largely focused on can Josh still be a "running" QB and stay healthy enough to enjoy a long career.

 

But maybe the question should be — and apologies if this is the focus but I skimmed through the thread pages — what can Josh be when he ages and loses a step or three (as opposed to gets injured or worn down by injuries)?

If a QB's best attribute is running, as opposed to passing, it's only natural that in his early 30s he won't be as effective as he was in his 20s. Athletes who rely on speed as their best attribute often have a sharp decline in their 30s.

I hope Josh continues to improve as a pocket passer so that when he can't run past linebackers he can still devastate a defence with his decision making and arm talent (which I believe lasts longer than leg talent).

[JGMcD2]

On 7/26/2023 at 5:34 PM, The Frankish Reich said:

 

So we've all heard it. Josh Allen needs to change his game, become more of a pocket passer, less inclined to take off running. His longevity depends on it. Does it?

The sample is small, and many of the leaders on the yards per game board are still young and active

 

Out of the 17 guys you listed, there are 13 instances of guys throwing for more than 4,000 yards. 3 of them are Josh Allen in 5 seasons. In the top 10 rush Y/G the only guy outside of Josh to have a 4,000 yard passing season was Cam Newton… he had ONE 4,000 yard passing season his rookie year. 

 

There are 15 instances of guys throwing for 30 TDs. 3 of them are Josh Allen. In the top 10 rush Y/G there are only two players outside of Josh to throw for 30 TD in a season. Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. 
 

Russell Wilson has the most 4,000 yard/30 TD seasons. He has four 4,000 yard seasons and five 30 TD seasons… it took him 8 years to accomplish that. Josh has 3 of each through 5 years. 

 

Does Josh need to protect himself a little better when he runs? I think so. Does he need to avoid contact a little more often than he has in the past? Yes.
 

What Josh doesn’t need to do is transition from being a “running QB” to a pocket passer, because he isn’t a “running QB”, he’s the “great exception.” 

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Out of the 17 guys you listed, there are 13 instances of guys throwing for more than 4,000 yards. 3 of them are Josh Allen in 5 seasons. In the top 10 rush Y/G the only guy outside of Josh to have a 4,000 yard passing season was Cam Newton… he had ONE 4,000 yard passing season his rookie year. 

 

There are 15 instances of guys throwing for 30 TDs. 3 of them are Josh Allen. In the top 10 rush Y/G there are only two players outside of Josh to throw for 30 TD in a season. Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. 
 

Russell Wilson has the most 4,000 yard/30 TD seasons. He has four 4,000 yard seasons and five 30 TD seasons… it took him 8 years to accomplish that. Josh has 3 of each through 5 years. 

 

Does Josh need to protect himself a little better when he runs? I think so. Does he need to avoid contact a little more often than he has in the past? Yes.
 

What Josh doesn’t need to do is transition from being a “running QB” to a pocket passer, because he isn’t a “running QB”, he’s the “great exception.” 

 

Could not have been said any better.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Your parameters not withstanding, some of the greatest QBs in NFL history would be considered running QBs. Tarkenton, Staubach, and Montana were all mobile guys. 

[MJS]

Looks primarily like a list of mediocre QB's with a couple good ones who weren't good passers.

 

Josh Allen is an elite passer. He happens to also be an elite runner.

[thenorthremembers]

This topic has been beat to death.   Its literally been disproven.  Statistics show that a QB is more likely to suffer a catastrophic injury in the pocket than out of it.  

 

Cam Newton's career ended because his shoulder went to hell on a freak play.   Mike Vick may have been a Hall of Famer if he didn't slaughter dogs in his spare time.  

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Out of the 17 guys you listed, there are 13 instances of guys throwing for more than 4,000 yards. 3 of them are Josh Allen in 5 seasons. In the top 10 rush Y/G the only guy outside of Josh to have a 4,000 yard passing season was Cam Newton… he had ONE 4,000 yard passing season his rookie year. 

 

There are 15 instances of guys throwing for 30 TDs. 3 of them are Josh Allen. In the top 10 rush Y/G there are only two players outside of Josh to throw for 30 TD in a season. Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. 
 

Russell Wilson has the most 4,000 yard/30 TD seasons. He has four 4,000 yard seasons and five 30 TD seasons… it took him 8 years to accomplish that. Josh has 3 of each through 5 years. 

 

Does Josh need to protect himself a little better when he runs? I think so. Does he need to avoid contact a little more often than he has in the past? Yes.
 

What Josh doesn’t need to do is transition from being a “running QB” to a pocket passer, because he isn’t a “running QB”, he’s the “great exception.” 

I hope you're right. 

So why does Bills' management believe he needs to run less? Why does Josh agree? If there's no problem, why not stick with what's been successful?

Maybe it's not the risk of cumulative breakdown by the time he's 33; maybe it's the greater likelihood of getting injured in THIS particular season, and missing multiple games (or heaven forbid, the rest of the season)? 

My suggestion was that the most likely explanation is that Bills' management DOES think that if he continues to run at this pace he WILL breakdown earlier than otherwise. After all, he's under contract through his age 32 season now, so the team has a vested interest in his long(ish)-term health.

 

Digression: easier to think about this type of thing in baseball since they don't have franchise tags, etc. Shohei Otani is one of the greats of baseball history already. No one has ever done what he's doing - arguably both the best pitcher and the best hitter in baseball. Never before, maybe never again. He's a free agent after this year. The Angels have no "vested interest" in his future health. They're not very good, but they may make the playoffs. They still pitch Otani every 6th day (I think). Why not ride him harder? Use him up? He's of zero value to you after 2023, and most people expect him to leave Anaheim. 

My point: if Josh were a free agent after 2023 - MLB style, not "franchise tags" and all of that - I'd say "run more, not less!" The Bills offense is at its best when he's using his legs as well as his arm. Even if he's not running that much, the threat means defenses put a spy on him, and that spy makes it a lot easier to find open men with one less defender in coverage or pass rushing. So it works!

But of course that's not the case ...

 

[JGMcD2]

43 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I hope you're right. 

So why does Bills' management believe he needs to run less? Why does Josh agree? If there's no problem, why not stick with what's been successful?

Maybe it's not the risk of cumulative breakdown by the time he's 33; maybe it's the greater likelihood of getting injured in THIS particular season, and missing multiple games (or heaven forbid, the rest of the season)? 

My suggestion was that the most likely explanation is that Bills' management DOES think that if he continues to run at this pace he WILL breakdown earlier than otherwise. After all, he's under contract through his age 32 season now, so the team has a vested interest in his long(ish)-term health.

 

That's not my point. 

 

You've labeled Josh Allen as a "running QB." You're trying to make the case that if he doesn't stop running, he's going to break down and fall off the face of the earth like the "running QBs" before him. 

 

I'm saying that Josh isn't a "running QB" like 17 guys you listed. Josh Allen, while currently one of the best "running QB' in the history of the NFL, is also one of the elite passers in the league. The elite passer part is something that none of the others had. 

 

That's the difference between Josh Allen and the rest of the names you listed... he's already shown to be significantly better than them at throwing the football. 

 

I agreed in my original post that he needs to limit the amount of hard contact he subjects himself to - I think everyone is in agreement on that point.

 

What I'm disagreeing with is your comparison to other "running QBs" and it is because those guys aren't Josh Allen. They never stacked elite seasons as passers, which is why so many careers fizzled out when their legs were no longer an effective option. 

 

43 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Digression: easier to think about this type of thing in baseball since they don't have franchise tags, etc. Shohei Otani is one of the greats of baseball history already. No one has ever done what he's doing - arguably both the best pitcher and the best hitter in baseball. Never before, maybe never again. He's a free agent after this year. The Angels have no "vested interest" in his future health. They're not very good, but they may make the playoffs. They still pitch Otani every 6th day (I think). Why not ride him harder? Use him up? He's of zero value to you after 2023, and most people expect him to leave Anaheim. 

My point: if Josh were a free agent after 2023 - MLB style, not "franchise tags" and all of that - I'd say "run more, not less!" The Bills offense is at its best when he's using his legs as well as his arm. Even if he's not running that much, the threat means defenses put a spy on him, and that spy makes it a lot easier to find open men with one less defender in coverage or pass rushing. So it works!

But of course that's not the case ...

 

 

This isn't a video game - there are repercussions for your actions.

 

Shohei Ohtani is a human being. Other players pay attention to how you treat guys.

 

If you treat Ohtani like an object and "use him up" there is going to be zero trust for you/your organization league wide. 

• You're asking coaches to risk their relationships and reputation
• You're asking a front office to turn a blind eye
• You're putting athletes long term health at risk

As I've stated, Josh Allen should limit that amount of contact he subjects himself to. I feel the same way with Shohei Ohtani theoretically increasing his workload on the mount. 

 

If you want to use Shohei as a comparison for Josh, I'll use this one:

 

Ohtani is a dual threat much like Allen. He's valuable on the mound and at the plate, similar to how Josh is valuable with his legs and with his arm. 

1. If you take away Ohtani's ability to pitch, he's still going to be one of the most feared hitters on the planet.
2. If you take away Allen's ability to run, he's still going to be one of the most feared passers on the planet. 

Comparing Josh Allen to other "running QBs" is like comparing Shohei Ohtani to other two-way players such as Brendan McKay, Michael Lorenzen and Jared Walsh. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Nextmanup]

The more you argue with broadly painted labels and extreme generalities, the further away from the truth you are going to get.

 

This is one of the conceptual flaws in any sort of analytic description of something as immensely complex as a football play.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 7/27/2023 at 8:05 AM, Charles Romes said:

Um. Elway?

 

 

Elway certainly could run.

 

But he didn't do it all that much. 

 

3407 yards over 16 seasons. That's 212 yards a season. His best season was 304 yards. Second-best was 257. 

 

He had 774 career carries, again over 16 years, and that's 48 per season, with his highest at 66 carries.

 

Allen's already got 546 attempts, 70% of Elway's career number.

 

Steve Young totalled 722 attempts over 15 years. Steve McNair had 669 attempts over 13 years. Even Vick only had 873 carries, though the dogs had something to do with that. If he'd gotten serious about passing early in his career and stayed away from dogs, it would have been very interesting to see how he did.

 

And very few of the others are good comps for Josh, as most couldn't throw all that well. The reason most had short careers was because they couldn't throw.

 

Newton had 1118 carries, and as big and strong as he was, it didn't work out well for him. Randall Cunningham only had 775.

 

Lamar's had 727. That will be an interesting case going forward, as will Hurts.

 

 

Edited July 28, 2023 by Thurman#1

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

My closest comparison has always been Big Ben who played at a high level until 38. Allen is gonna have to go through a style transformation later on, but I think he’ll be fine. Even if he had had the mobility of Drew Bledsoe, he would still be highly effective as a pure pocket passer. 

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

My closest comparison has always been Big Ben who played at a high level until 38. Allen is gonna have to go through a style transformation later on, but I think he’ll be fine. Even if he had had the mobility of Drew Bledsoe, he would still be highly effective as a pure pocket passer. 

Steelers never made him run as much as Bills do Allen tho

[Teddy KGB]

No 

[QCity]

Not only do running QB's not last, I'll take it further and state that even running backs do not last. Running in today's NFL is a ticket to early retirement. 

 

Jackson, Fields, and Hurts will all miss some games this year and it won't even be the least bit surprising to people that understand this (Although I think most do understand this and many just need a "comfort thread").

[Buffalo716]

The game is 100% changing 

 

The days of statues in the pocket are basically dying ... Tom Brady's and Matt Ryan's will be the dinosaur

 

Burrow is probably the only exception moving forward and he isn't unathletic

 

It's gonna be guys like Allen and mahomes and fields and Anthony Richardson and Lamar and such ... Even guys like Trevor Lawrence can move 

 

Now if you can't throw you also won't last ... But the days of the statue are basically done 

[John from Riverside]

The only time that our quarterback has gotten hurt, it has been from in the pocket