Fifty-Two Million! 52,000,000 Difference In Voters From 2016-2024

[Tiberius]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/19/gen-z-voters-2024/

 

Every year, about 4 million Americans turn 18 and gain the right to vote. In the eight years between the 2016 and 2024 elections, that’s 32 million new eligible voters.

Also every year, 2½ million older Americans die. So in the same eight years, that’s as many as 20 million fewer older voters.

 

Which means that between Trump’s election in 2016 and the 2024 election, the number of Gen Z (born in the late 1990s and early 2010s) voters will have advanced by a net 52 million against older people. That’s about 20 percent of the total 2020 eligible electorate of 258 million Americans.

 

And unlike previous generations, Gen Z votes. Comparing the four federal elections since 2015 (when the first members of Gen Z turned 18) with the preceding nine (1998 to 2014), average turnout by young voters (defined here as voters under 30) in the Trump and post-Trump years has been 25 percent higher than that of older generations at the same age before Trump — 8 percent higher in presidential years and a whopping 46 percent higher in midterms.

[The Frankish Reich]

Aging people do, of course, turn more conservative. So that tempers the effect.

There was some discussion a few months ago about how millennials appear to be more dug in than prior generations in their liberal views, but I'm not convinced. Having said that, the turn in the Republican Party away from the core issues that typically drive changes in political views (taxes! you make more money as you get older) may be making the Republican pitch to aging millennials more difficult ...

[Tiberius]

Frank, I'll just add this from the article:

 

About 48 percent of Gen Z voters identify as a person of color, while the boomers they’re replacing in the electorate are 72 percent White. Gen Z voters are on track to be the most educated group in our history, and the majority of college graduates are now female. Because voting participation correlates positively with education, expect women to speak with a bigger voice in our coming elections. Gen Z voters are much more likely to cite gender fluidity as a value, and they list racism among their greatest concerns. Further, they are the least religious generation in our history. No wonder there’s discussion in some parts of the GOP about raising the voting age to 25, and among some Democrats about lowering it to 16!

[The Frankish Reich]

2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Frank, I'll just add this from the article:

 

About 48 percent of Gen Z voters identify as a person of color, while the boomers they’re replacing in the electorate are 72 percent White. Gen Z voters are on track to be the most educated group in our history, and the majority of college graduates are now female. Because voting participation correlates positively with education, expect women to speak with a bigger voice in our coming elections. Gen Z voters are much more likely to cite gender fluidity as a value, and they list racism among their greatest concerns. Further, they are the least religious generation in our history. No wonder there’s discussion in some parts of the GOP about raising the voting age to 25, and among some Democrats about lowering it to 16!

I tend to agree. The problem I see in the Republican Party: there's a huge nostalgia element in everyone's campaign. From the obvious ("make American great again") to the more implied (a focus on bringing back old industry instead of new, on traditional values, and of course the whole anti-woke industry). That's a hard sell for people who have no memory of any such "golden age" that the Republicans are trying to bring back.

[SoCal Deek]

8 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I tend to agree. The problem I see in the Republican Party: there's a huge nostalgia element in everyone's campaign. From the obvious ("make American great again") to the more implied (a focus on bringing back old industry instead of new, on traditional values, and of course the whole anti-woke industry). That's a hard sell for people who have no memory of any such "golden age" that the Republicans are trying to bring back.

I agree with much of that Frank. Many years ago I attended a conference and the keynote lunchtime speaker was a demographer. She wasn’t an expert on the subject of the conference but she explained how demographics impact so much of what we feel, consume, and trend. I’ll never forget that presentation. (Can’t remember much else from that conference.) What she also reminded everyone is that these trends sing back and forth all the time. 

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

I agree with much of that Frank. Many years ago I attended a conference and the keynote lunchtime speaker was a demographer. She wasn’t an expert on the subject of the conference but she explained how demographics impact so much of what we feel, consume, and trend. I’ll never forget that presentation. (Can’t remember much else from that conference.) What she also reminded everyone is that these trends swing back and forth all the time. 

 

Edited July 24, 2023 by SoCal Deek

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

I agree with much of that Frank. Many years ago I attended a conference and the keynote lunchtime speaker was a demographer. She wasn’t an expert on the subject of the conference but she explained how demographics impact so much of what we feel, consume, and trend. I’ll never forget that presentation. (Can’t remember much else from that conference.) What she also reminded everyone is that these trends sing back and forth all the time. 

That's why I'm a bit more cautious about making long-term political predictions based on demographic changes. 

Party positions change in response to demographic changes. Sean Trende (I think still at realclearpolitics, even though that site has been in decline for a while) does a great job of analyzing this.

[Tiberius]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

I agree with much of that Frank. Many years ago I attended a conference and the keynote lunchtime speaker was a demographer. She wasn’t an expert on the subject of the conference but she explained how demographics impact so much of what we feel, consume, and trend. I’ll never forget that presentation. (Can’t remember much else from that conference.) What she also reminded everyone is that these trends sing back and forth all the time. 

 

On no, this trend won't swing back and forth, this GOP is a dead man walking. Keep nominating morally deprived trash like Trump and you guys will get beat worse and worse each time. There's a reason why in the light of Romney's loss in 2012 some in the GOP called for trying to broaden their appeal to a larger section of the population. They didn't and got real lucky in 2016. That won't happen again 

[The Frankish Reich]

37 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Keep nominating morally deprived trash like Trump and you guys will get beat worse and worse each time

You assume that they will. That is, keep nominating Trump or one of his supporters.

The Democrats did not "keep nominating Mondale" or someone like him after getting their butts kicked in 1984.

The problem is that our political parties need to take a good old fashioned butt whipping in order to be dragged into fundamental change. The Trump model is unsustainable because, as we're seeing now, it is very much based on a cult of personality. It is difficult to find a policy core there. That's what DeSantis is learning now - he's trying to outflank Trump on the right on the culture war stuff, and it's not working.  Sooner or later ideas do matter. So I choose to be an optimist.

[Irv]

Young, old, who cares?  Even the chronically stupid are wising up to the disaster Demented Bribe-Taking Biden and his buddies have created.  What a mess.  

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

You assume that they will. That is, keep nominating Trump or one of his supporters.

The Democrats did not "keep nominating Mondale" or someone like him after getting their butts kicked in 1984.

The problem is that our political parties need to take a good old fashioned butt whipping in order to be dragged into fundamental change. The Trump model is unsustainable because, as we're seeing now, it is very much based on a cult of personality. It is difficult to find a policy core there. That's what DeSantis is learning now - he's trying to outflank Trump on the right on the culture war stuff, and it's not working.  Sooner or later ideas do matter. So I choose to be an optimist.

IMHO: The existential threat this country faces is when BOTH parties nominate people who don’t want to stir up the Washington status quo. 

Edited July 24, 2023 by SoCal Deek

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

3 hours ago, Tiberius said:

Frank, I'll just add this from the article:

 

About 48 percent of Gen Z voters identify as a person of color, while the boomers they’re replacing in the electorate are 72 percent White. Gen Z voters are on track to be the most educated group in our history, and the majority of college graduates are now female. Because voting participation correlates positively with education, expect women to speak with a bigger voice in our coming elections. Gen Z voters are much more likely to cite gender fluidity as a value, and they list racism among their greatest concerns. Further, they are the least religious generation in our history. No wonder there’s discussion in some parts of the GOP about raising the voting age to 25, and among some Democrats about lowering it to 16!

The religious institutions should offer classes on beating the student loan game.  Attendance would go through the roof! 

[Tiberius]

20 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

You assume that they will. That is, keep nominating Trump or one of his supporters.

The Democrats did not "keep nominating Mondale" or someone like him after getting their butts kicked in 1984.

The problem is that our political parties need to take a good old fashioned butt whipping in order to be dragged into fundamental change. The Trump model is unsustainable because, as we're seeing now, it is very much based on a cult of personality. It is difficult to find a policy core there. That's what DeSantis is learning now - he's trying to outflank Trump on the right on the culture war stuff, and it's not working.  Sooner or later ideas do matter. So I choose to be an optimist.

Well, he is leading in polls now, Marjorie Taylor Green is a leader of that party and so is Jim Jordan. I don't see them "growing up" anytime soon. And yes, the Dems did change course after losing in 84, but this group of GOPers just simply declared they were cheated instead of accepting defeat. Sure, they might change, and I'm sure they will eventually, but as of now it ain't happening. 

 

This demographic shift has been underway for decades and will continue, the nation is changing and the Southern Strategy that Nixon started in 1966 after the Civil Rights Acts passed is basically what Trump won on in 2016. That strategy is played out and the GOP does not seem to get that. Yes, they may shift by 2028, but it is hard to teach an old dog new tricks 

[Tommy Callahan]

19 hours ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

The religious institutions should offer classes on beating the student loan game.  Attendance would go through the roof! 

like start paying as soon as possible, pay at least the minimum and try to make over payments when possible. just like most credit.

 

Imagine a home or car loan that just built interest and you didn't even start paying for years.  then only paid the interest.  

 

 

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The missing component in this topic is the parties themselves. The left has gotten much much more extreme left recently. The right moves left on a couple issues, parked or a little right on some others, but are mostly where they have been. 

 

The man hating anti white vitriol left that used to be a fringe joke even on the left is now in control of the narrative.
 

That’s turning a lot of left leaning moderates off and opening them to look for a different answer. 
 

then of course as people become more successful and start making money they lose enthusiasm for the increasing government theft of that money. This is why the lowest incomes vote majority democratic (particularly the deadbeats) and it moves to republican as you move up the income brackets. 

[BillsFanNC]

The people that tell you that you've fallen victim to the "Big Lie" if you even bring up the many irregularities and unconstitutional actions that took place in the 2020 election...

 

Are the very same people who nod right along when they're told by the powers that they can't find the person who left cocaine in the most secure and surveilled building on the planet.

Edited July 25, 2023 by BillsFanNC

[T master]

Which given the way these new voters think as far as a lot of things today & them being molly coddled & very sensitive as to not get their feelings hurt by a statement i would say that the US & quite possibly the world US F'D !! 

 

The biggest reason is because they have these young voters drinking the kool-aid and not truly seeing what's going on behind the scenes & they will be foolish enough to not see & believe what they are being fed until it's passed the point of no return kind of like Canada has done ...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fDWZjvNUC8

 

Long but worth every minute !!! 

[The Frankish Reich]

4 minutes ago, T master said:

Which given the way these new voters think as far as a lot of things today & them being molly coddled & very sensitive as to not get their feelings hurt by a statement i would say that the US & quite possibly the world US F'D !! 

 

The biggest reason is because they have these young voters drinking the kool-aid and not truly seeing what's going on behind the scenes & they will be foolish enough to not see & believe what they are being fed until it's passed the point of no return kind of like Canada has done ...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fDWZjvNUC8

 

Long but worth every minute !!! 

Or maybe they were refusing the QAnon-ade of "the great awakening." (That's what the linked video is)

[T master]

11 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Or maybe they were refusing the QAnon-ade of "the great awakening." (That's what the linked video is)

 

Have you even watched it most likely NOT !

 

So if your not willing to take in any differing information that may have a difference of your opinion to influence thought that may be relevant then you are wearing blinders !

 

Or as stated in my prior post drinking the kool-aid . I try to take in more than 1 view & you calling the video Qanon funded tells me exactly what needs to be known especially seeing as the video shows a lot of exactly what has been happening in the US for many years and it's results .

 

But that may just be me 🤔

[BillsFanNC]

See this is why someone like @The Frankish Reich can't hold a candle to the King.

 

It's Qanon all the time. 

 

Just like @BillStime and his same two Trump memes.

 

They need the diversity and flair of @ChiGoose if they ever hope to have even a chance to dethrone the unmatched King.

[The Frankish Reich]

28 minutes ago, T master said:

 

Have you even watched it most likely NOT !

 

So if your not willing to take in any differing information that may have a difference of your opinion to influence thought that may be relevant then you are wearing blinders !

 

Or as stated in my prior post drinking the kool-aid . I try to take in more than 1 view & you calling the video Qanon funded tells me exactly what needs to be known especially seeing as the video shows a lot of exactly what has been happening in the US for many years and it's results .

 

But that may just be me 🤔

Since "The Great Awakening" is a term right out of QAnon, I don't think I'm taking any risk of mischaracterizing it.