Rewatching the Week 3 Dolphins game

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

You do realize there's a contradiction there, right?  

 

Otherwise, I'm hardly defending Salgado, but anyone thinking that he was in any way primarily responsible for our piss poor playoff performance this past playoffs, I"m speechless.  

 

 

Teams make changes to their staff after the season. That is absolutely standard practice. Firing Salgado does absolutely not suggest that the team were blaming him for the Bengals loss. Normally when a position coach is fired that decision has been made for a number of weeks before the season ends. And as I have said, while injuries and inexperience played their part our safety play last season was not good. None of us can honestly know how attributable that was to Salgado. I dare say the people who watched him work with his players day in and day out had a better feel for that. 

 

You asked do we think the replacement will be better? I don't know. I don't know a ton about Joe Danna and the couple of people I have reached out to who have been in the league and have contacts and they haven't come across him either. But he is certainly more experienced than Salgado. Why do you suppose he will be worse?

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Teams make changes to their staff after the season. That is absolutely standard practice. Firing Salgado does absolutely not suggest that the team were blaming him for the Bengals loss. Normally when a position coach is fired that decision has been made for a number of weeks before the season ends.

 

Your statements are fair, you simply don't apply them uniformly.  

 

I also never said that the team was blaming him, what my point has been was that absolutely no corrective action was taken until the charade with Frazier occurred, and with what happened there still being kept in the dark by the team with only leaks of insight coming out incidentally otherwise.  

 

Also normally is that after a "13 Seconds" type loss followed up by the defensive debacle that occurred in the subsequent season's playoffs loss, if not after the aforementioned even, is for someone to be fired.  That did not occur.  Frazier only "decided to take a year off" (which wasn't even entirely true as pitched) over a month after the loss. 

 

And if as you suggested, they had decided to fire Salgado prior to that time, why did it take the several days to make that firing when firings of that nature normally occur as soon as the season ends, if not for the team's purposes, then out of courtesy to give the coach as much time as possible to find other work.  Your logic, as mentioned, is fair, you're simply not applying it across the board, only in favor of your argument.   Consistency is key.  

 

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

And as I have said, while injuries and inexperience played their part our safety play last season was not good. None of us can honestly know how attributable that was to Salgado. I dare say the people who watched him work with his players day in and day out had a better feel for that. 

 

So had Allen gotten injured, and Keenum had to start, the logic here too is that it would have been fair to judge Dorsey on that as well.  I disagree with that entirely.  

 

Hyde, one of the better Ss in the game was out all season, and Poyer one of the top Ss in the game if not the best, missed 4 games and played through a knee injury throughout most of the rest.  To suggest that the dropoff in play from those two to Johnson and Hamlin was not massive is remiss and dishonest.   

 

I also find it quite interesting that until then Salgado was involved with coaching the CBs the season prior when they were actually better.  

 

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

You asked do we think the replacement will be better? I don't know. I don't know a ton about Joe Danna and the couple of people I have reached out to who have been in the league and have contacts and they haven't come across him either. But he is certainly more experienced than Salgado. Why do you suppose he will be worse?

 

I never supposed he'd be worse.  But you answered the question honestly, and before this discussion I had never even heard of Joe Danna, he may be the best Ss coach we've ever had.  But my point now is that is that going to make any difference at all given that Hyde and Poyer are back?  Is there any history of Hyde Poyer not being the top safety tandem in the entire league?  (or very close to it if you'd like to argue not the top)   Will Danna get credit for what the Ss have now already been doing without him?  Do you really think that this is going to make much of a difference whatsoever, given that the concerns of our team are everywhere else but S as long as Poyer/Hyde are healthy?   

 

They're rhetorical questions.  

 

At the end of the day, again, normally, the better coaches make obvious decisions and adjustments to "what went wrong" to end two very big seasons insofar as championship implications went, aka firings.  That did not occur here.  What did occur is some bizarrely developing transition that to date has never been fully expalined (i.e. McD hasn't come clean on more in the vernacular) with Frazier, who's been kept on for 6 seasons and only now implicitly made the reason for the team's lack of performance when it matters most.  Everyone can spin it how they want, but sometimes the facts speak for themselves and anything else is merely rhetoric for purposes of developing a narrative that isn't quite true or otherwise not wanting to expose embarrassing or non-favorable circumstances, aka covering something up.  Just sayin'.  But it happens all the time.  

 

Thanks for the civil exchange!!   

 

I definitely sense your passion for your positions, which isn't bad.  ... even if they're wrong.  ... I kid, I kid!!   

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

On 7/24/2023 at 1:10 AM, LABILLBACKER said:

Yup....just like with :13 we should've sent the house and man cover the middle.  But we did the complete opposite. 

You don’t send the house on that play.

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Your statements are fair, you simply don't apply them uniformly.  

 

I also never said that the team was blaming him, what my point has been was that absolutely no corrective action was taken until the charade with Frazier occurred, and with what happened there still being kept in the dark by the team with only leaks of insight coming out incidentally otherwise.  

 

Also normally is that after a "13 Seconds" type loss followed up by the defensive debacle that occurred in the subsequent season's playoffs loss, if not after the aforementioned even, is for someone to be fired.  That did not occur.  Frazier only "decided to take a year off" (which wasn't even entirely true as pitched) over a month after the loss. 

 

And if as you suggested, they had decided to fire Salgado prior to that time, why did it take the several days to make that firing when firings of that nature normally occur as soon as the season ends, if not for the team's purposes, then out of courtesy to give the coach as much time as possible to find other work.  Your logic, as mentioned, is fair, you're simply not applying it across the board, only in favor of your argument.   Consistency is key.  

 

So had Allen gotten injured, and Keenum had to start, the logic here too is that it would have been fair to judge Dorsey on that as well.  I disagree with that entirely. 

 

I don't apply them inconsistently. Salgado's firing was announced 4 days after the season ended. That is absolutely within the bounds of normal practice. The Monday after a playoff loss is locker clearout day and exit interviews with players. Ordinarily the Tuesday is then a day off, which one imagines is a chance for everyone to collect their thoughts then the Wednesday they do the season wrap up with the coaching staff which tends to be when firings of coordinators or position coaches occur. I suspect Salgado was informed on the Wednesday that he was being released and it took until Thursday for the news to reach the media and even if it didn't happen until Thursday that is literally the second day when it could happen. The reason Frazier happened later is that he was not fired. He chose to walk away. It appears based on the leaks and rumours we have that McDermott informed him in the end of season meetings that he was intending to get more involved in the defense (and potentially play calling) in 2023 and Frazier pondered that and, a few weeks later in February after the first week off he had since July, decided he'd rather step away in those circumstances.  EDIT: I also, without throwing my source under the bus, know for a fact that Frazier's decision to go was his own. The extent to which he felt the team gave him no option might be debatable. But he stood down. 

 

On "corrective action" I am old school. I am also a coach. I don't believe corrective action always means firing someone. That is a modern way of thinking that is driven by social media and mob mentality. Nobody doubts 13 seconds was a screw up by the coaching staff. And someone, Heath Farwell, was ultimately let go (again though it wasn't the only major special teams gaffe in 2021 and I don't think that decision was just about what happened in Kansas City though clearly it played a part). But I don't think the result of every disappointing playoff loss should be someone gets fired. You have to divorce the emotion, take a step back, and in a cool, collected and sober manner look at the big picture. 

 

I agree with you on Dorsey - and you will note - I said it was impossible to know how much accountability Salgado deserves for the drop off given injuries and inexperience. I'm not arguing that I know that and he deserved firing. What I am saying is that I trust McDermott and Beane who was observed him coaching his unit day in day out. Agree, Taron Johnson is one of the better nickels in football and he must have done a decent enough job coaching him the two years prior to get promoted to safeties coach. But I trust the GM and HC because they know things I can't possibly know and none of us can unless we were at practice every day. You are entitled to not trust them if you like, that's your opinion. But I still don't think that gets you to "they threw him under the bus" after the playoff loss, which is kind of where you started. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by GunnerBill

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Your statements are fair, you simply don't apply them uniformly.  

 

I also never said that the team was blaming him, what my point has been was that absolutely no corrective action was taken until the charade with Frazier occurred, and with what happened there still being kept in the dark by the team with only leaks of insight coming out incidentally otherwise. 

 

 

The reason Salgado is being discussed is when asked for an example of McD "throwing someone under the bus", you brought up Salgado (see below).  So yes you very much did say McD was blaming him. 

 

As for when corrective action was/is taken and why; I dont think we'll know for a long time.  This team is incredibly tight lipped.  I dont think you should then fill in those gaps with whatever you want.

On 7/24/2023 at 1:41 PM, PBF81 said:

 

LOL, seriously?  

How about firing Jim Salgado after our playoff losses this season, the Safeties coach, who did nothing wrong in his coaching tenure here, his only stint I think.  ... other than not ever having coached in Carolina that is.  Hell, he's arguably had the best unit on the team on McD's watch.  

 

And 13-seconds?  LMAO  What a wimp on that!   Saying he takes responsibility with strong undertones that he wasn't really responsible.  

 

As someone else has pointed out several times, if Frasier was that big of an issue on defense, then why was he here for 6 seasons as the DC.  So either McD's not competent in that, or he too threw Frasier under the bus.  We'll never know because despite the "high character" veil, he doesn't practice it himself when discussing the team.  

 

We'll see what happens this season otherwise, but IMO the expectations are too lofty.  

 

 

The bolded still does not make sense.  I dont know how you could say McD threw Frasier under the bus in anyway.  As you mention he kept him around for 6 seasons and parted with him in very mysterious terms.  While were talking about it so long; what bus was coming for McD.  That phrase is typically deployed when someone is about to be in big trouble.  I dont think McD was in any hot seat with management after the season (see recent extension); thus, the only "bus" would be in the media.  And again McD didnt put blame on Frazier (or Salgado) in the media.      

Edited July 27, 2023 by YattaOkasan

[Utah John]

On 7/25/2023 at 6:05 PM, buffblue said:

Interesting theory. I would say the Bears performance on defense this year with Edmunds in the middle (and the Bills without him) will shed some light on your statement. But there will likely be shades of gray. I think Chicago is still going to be pretty bad on D, and am I not sold on Eberflus. Conversely, the Bills will likely fall in the statistical rankings in 2023, but how much weight can be attributed to the turnover at MLB? 

 

My inclination is to believe our scheme did not fully let Tremaine play to his natural strengths. Imo they saw a large, extremely athletic linebacker with a huge wingspan and effectively said "Just plant yourself in the middle of our zone and all will be well". And the thing is, it worked for the most part. Then again, when McD had Kuechly (who is a borderline HOFer) in Carolina, they deployed him in a much more aggressive manner despite lacking Edmund's physical gifts.

 

This year will go a long way towards resolving one of the board's eternal arguments...but I'm not sure it will be definitive. 

Thanks for the thoughtful response.  I agree, we're going to have to wait and see how events unfold, and even then the results won't likely be definitive.  Injuries, mistakes, and the usual great plays by someone on the opposing offense, will all affect how successful the Bills D is this year. 

[PBF81]

On 7/27/2023 at 9:13 AM, YattaOkasan said:

The bolded still does not make sense.  I dont know how you could say McD threw Frasier under the bus in anyway.  As you mention he kept him around for 6 seasons and parted with him in very mysterious terms.  While were talking about it so long; what bus was coming for McD.  That phrase is typically deployed when someone is about to be in big trouble.  I dont think McD was in any hot seat with management after the season (see recent extension); thus, the only "bus" would be in the media.  And again McD didnt put blame on Frazier (or Salgado) in the media.      

 

Well, OK, even here people were demanding answers for 13 Seconds and the abysmal playoff exit this past season.  Rewrite history if you like.   

 

Otherwise, it's camp time.  

 

Go BILLS!!!  

 

 

[PBF81]

On 7/27/2023 at 8:49 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't apply them inconsistently. Salgado's firing was announced 4 days after the season ended. That is absolutely within the bounds of normal practice.

 

Part of the inconsistency that I am referring to is your putting down of Salgado due to a lack of experience, but then insisting that McD and the coaches know better than anyone else that Danna will be better, despite the fact that he's been in the same minor coaching role now for 15 years, has never advanced, and has never been on a team longer than three seasons (once), that they know more than we do, which is true, but then they also knew more than we did and all the same things apply for their hiring of Salgado to begin with.  

It's not unreasonble to assess the failures in the same way, but your inconisistency is that you're disallowing that.  

 

 

On 7/27/2023 at 8:49 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

The Monday after a playoff loss is locker clearout day and exit interviews with players. Ordinarily the Tuesday is then a day off, which one imagines is a chance for everyone to collect their thoughts then the Wednesday they do the season wrap up with the coaching staff which tends to be when firings of coordinators or position coaches occur. I suspect Salgado was informed on the Wednesday that he was being released and it took until Thursday for the news to reach the media and even if it didn't happen until Thursday that is literally the second day when it could happen. The reason Frazier happened later is that he was not fired. He chose to walk away. It appears based on the leaks and rumours we have that McDermott informed him in the end of season meetings that he was intending to get more involved in the defense (and potentially play calling) in 2023 and Frazier pondered that and, a few weeks later in February after the first week off he had since July, decided he'd rather step away in those circumstances.  EDIT: I also, without throwing my source under the bus, know for a fact that Frazier's decision to go was his own. The extent to which he felt the team gave him no option might be debatable. But he stood down. 

 

That's very fair, but re: your source, that was all put out publicly, nothing investigative about it.  

 

When I talk about not coming clean, I'm talking about things like the Diggs incident, but also in the way the info for Frazier was put out.  You more or less slide over the fact that no self-respecting DC like Frazier, with his history, good, far from great, but good anyway, should lower himself to secondary status as a figurehead because McD can't bring himself to fire him or just tell him it's not working out.  Either fire the guy, or don't, and I suspect that money might have had something to do with it as well.  Retire, no money paid.  Fire him, he continues to get paid.  Who knows whether Pegula was involved, we'll likely never find out.  

 

Point it, make your decision and live with it!   A lot of people don't respect the approach that McD used, here or in life in general.  

 

I understand your position however.  

 

 

On 7/27/2023 at 8:49 AM, GunnerBill said:

On "corrective action" I am old school. I am also a coach. I don't believe corrective action always means firing someone. That is a modern way of thinking that is driven by social media and mob mentality. Nobody doubts 13 seconds was a screw up by the coaching staff. And someone, Heath Farwell, was ultimately let go (again though it wasn't the only major special teams gaffe in 2021 and I don't think that decision was just about what happened in Kansas City though clearly it played a part). But I don't think the result of every disappointing playoff loss should be someone gets fired. You have to divorce the emotion, take a step back, and in a cool, collected and sober manner look at the big picture. 

 

That's also very fair and I agree with you on much of that premise and generally speaking.  We're not as far apart on this as it may seem, primarily the above.  

 

However, our defense has been problematic in each and every one of our playoff losses during Frazier's tenure not including his first season here in that playoff loss to Jax with Bortles at QB and Marrone coaching.  Sure, we're not sure who called for the MO on the 13-Seconds plays, could very well have been McD, seems as if we'll never know.  

 

In 2019 it allowed 19 unanswered points in the 2nd-half to ultimately lose that game. 

In 2020, we allowed the Chiefs their 3rd most 1st-Downs and 4th most Points all season

In 2021 13-Seconds speaks for itself. 

Then last season vs. the Bengals.  

 

It's not as if there isn't a storied history here with defensive playoff failures (offensive too in '20 and last season) over the past four seasons and once in the WC round and twice in the D-round, with the one in the AFC CG having been the most egregious and likely having prevented us from having on Lombardi at the present time.  

 

So it's hardly merely one game.  I don't see how anyone could possibly disgree, even our own Bills media, as formerly referenced by Sal Maiorana's article on which the ink hasn't even dry a week.  

 

 

On 7/27/2023 at 8:49 AM, GunnerBill said:

I agree with you on Dorsey - and you will note - I said it was impossible to know how much accountability Salgado deserves for the drop off given injuries and inexperience. I'm not arguing that I know that and he deserved firing. What I am saying is that I trust McDermott and Beane who was observed him coaching his unit day in day out. Agree, Taron Johnson is one of the better nickels in football and he must have done a decent enough job coaching him the two years prior to get promoted to safeties coach. But I trust the GM and HC because they know things I can't possibly know and none of us can unless we were at practice every day. You are entitled to not trust them if you like, that's your opinion. But I still don't think that gets you to "they threw him under the bus" after the playoff loss, which is kind of where you started. 

 

Thanks for saying that, I agree with most of it.  I will add that my saying that they threw Salgado under the bus was not merely that firing action in itself, as I've made clear, per above again, it's a sum of the parts kind of thing.  Not everyone has to agree, but that's my take.  

 

While I don't disagree with it, the italicized part above, what I will add is that Salgado was on this team for 6 seasons, only this team.  If you trust McBeane now, then they should also have been trusted when they originally hired and twice promoted Salgado.  Then to fire him after Poyer was limited for much of the season, missing from a fourth of it, and Hyde out the entire season, does not seem fair to me. 

 

Imagine being a mail carrier promoted to a driving route in Buffalo.  Congratulations on the promotion son, nice work!  Oh, BTW, the utility delivery car that you would have been using broke down and we can't afford a replacement.  Here's a mule for you to use.  Enjoy your route in Nov. thru March.  It's that kinda thing.  And as the only firing subsequent to that game.  We don't need to rehash that, but I was far from the only one that pointed it out.  

 

Having said that, McD's strength does appear to be Secondary, where he played and coached prior to becoming a DC.  Which makes the Salgado thing more, not less puzzling to me.  I mean it took him 6 seasons to evaluate Salgado?  Otherwise, I'm not sure how much faith I have in a position coach that's never advanced, never stays on the same team for more than two seasons with only one exception.  We'll see.  But having Poyer/Hyde back already makes him "better than Salgado" even if he's braindead or does nothing.  Those guys are self-coaching at this point.  Best S tandem in the league!  

 

For me it's not a matter of trust.  I don't have to trust them, they're not my employers or business partners or people or companies that I contract with.  Same for you or any other fan.  All we do is talk, and not a word of what we exchange matters the proverbial hill of beans.  But in trying to connect the dots in the vast absence of any direct statements from the team in the matter, yes, they can be tacit, but that then opens them up to speculation.  

 

I think we both agree that this season will be key in determining a good many things, the least of which will not be whether the extensions that McBeane just got were justified or not.  We both hope that that we win the Super Bowl, although I couldn't care less if it's as a Wild-Card or the #1 Seed, as long as we get it, while some care more about winning more games.  That aside, I also think that the D is going to take a massive step backwards this season for reasons that I've expressed before, just not in this post.  (MLB among them)   While you, if I recall right, think the opposite.  

 

At the same time, if managed properly, I expect the offense to be the most prolific offense in franchise history and possibly tops in the league.  If Torrence and McGovern are for real then this will be the best OL we've had on McD's watch, and if Kincaid is for real, then we should also easily have the best receivers we've had on his watch as well.  RBs, no worse than any other season.  But if those things end up not being for real, then some more serious questions need to start being asked.  

 

Either way, I'm still not sure what renders these thoughts so outrageous that they're not even tolerable per prior posts.  

 

Anyway, again, camp time.  First preseason game in two weeks.  We'll know how the season has unfolded in four more months or so.  

 

Go BILLS!!!!  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Part of the inconsistency that I am referring to is your putting down of Salgado due to a lack of experience, but then insisting that McD and the coaches know better than anyone else that Danna will be better, despite the fact that he's been in the same minor coaching role now for 15 years, has never advanced, and has never been on a team longer than three seasons (once), that they know more than we do, which is true, but then they also knew more than we did and all the same things apply for their hiring of Salgado to begin with.  

It's not unreasonble to assess the failures in the same way, but your inconisistency is that you're disallowing that.  

 

 

 

That's very fair, but re: your source, that was all put out publicly, nothing investigative about it.  

 

When I talk about not coming clean, I'm talking about things like the Diggs incident, but also in the way the info for Frazier was put out.  You more or less slide over the fact that no self-respecting DC like Frazier, with his history, good, far from great, but good anyway, should lower himself to secondary status as a figurehead because McD can't bring himself to fire him or just tell him it's not working out.  Either fire the guy, or don't, and I suspect that money might have had something to do with it as well.  Retire, no money paid.  Fire him, he continues to get paid.  Who knows whether Pegula was involved, we'll likely never find out.  

 

Point it, make your decision and live with it!   A lot of people don't respect the approach that McD used, here or in life in general.  

 

I understand your position however.  

 

 

 

That's also very fair and I agree with you on much of that premise and generally speaking.  We're not as far apart on this as it may seem, primarily the above.  

 

However, our defense has been problematic in each and every one of our playoff losses during Frazier's tenure not including his first season here in that playoff loss to Jax with Bortles at QB and Marrone coaching.  Sure, we're not sure who called for the MO on the 13-Seconds plays, could very well have been McD, seems as if we'll never know.  

 

In 2019 it allowed 19 unanswered points in the 2nd-half to ultimately lose that game. 

In 2020, we allowed the Chiefs their 3rd most 1st-Downs and 4th most Points all season

In 2021 13-Seconds speaks for itself. 

Then last season vs. the Bengals.  

 

It's not as if there isn't a storied history here with defensive playoff failures (offensive too in '20 and last season) over the past four seasons and once in the WC round and twice in the D-round, with the one in the AFC CG having been the most egregious and likely having prevented us from having on Lombardi at the present time.  

 

So it's hardly merely one game.  I don't see how anyone could possibly disgree, even our own Bills media, as formerly referenced by Sal Maiorana's article on which the ink hasn't even dry a week.  

 

 

 

Thanks for saying that, I agree with most of it.  I will add that my saying that they threw Salgado under the bus was not merely that firing action in itself, as I've made clear, per above again, it's a sum of the parts kind of thing.  Not everyone has to agree, but that's my take.  

 

While I don't disagree with it, the italicized part above, what I will add is that Salgado was on this team for 6 seasons, only this team.  If you trust McBeane now, then they should also have been trusted when they originally hired and twice promoted Salgado.  Then to fire him after Poyer was limited for much of the season, missing from a fourth of it, and Hyde out the entire season, does not seem fair to me. 

 

Imagine being a mail carrier promoted to a driving route in Buffalo.  Congratulations on the promotion son, nice work!  Oh, BTW, the utility delivery car that you would have been using broke down and we can't afford a replacement.  Here's a mule for you to use.  Enjoy your route in Nov. thru March.  It's that kinda thing.  And as the only firing subsequent to that game.  We don't need to rehash that, but I was far from the only one that pointed it out.  

 

Having said that, McD's strength does appear to be Secondary, where he played and coached prior to becoming a DC.  Which makes the Salgado thing more, not less puzzling to me.  I mean it took him 6 seasons to evaluate Salgado?  Otherwise, I'm not sure how much faith I have in a position coach that's never advanced, never stays on the same team for more than two seasons with only one exception.  We'll see.  But having Poyer/Hyde back already makes him "better than Salgado" even if he's braindead or does nothing.  Those guys are self-coaching at this point.  Best S tandem in the league!  

 

For me it's not a matter of trust.  I don't have to trust them, they're not my employers or business partners or people or companies that I contract with.  Same for you or any other fan.  All we do is talk, and not a word of what we exchange matters the proverbial hill of beans.  But in trying to connect the dots in the vast absence of any direct statements from the team in the matter, yes, they can be tacit, but that then opens them up to speculation.  

 

I think we both agree that this season will be key in determining a good many things, the least of which will not be whether the extensions that McBeane just got were justified or not.  We both hope that that we win the Super Bowl, although I couldn't care less if it's as a Wild-Card or the #1 Seed, as long as we get it, while some care more about winning more games.  That aside, I also think that the D is going to take a massive step backwards this season for reasons that I've expressed before, just not in this post.  (MLB among them)   While you, if I recall right, think the opposite.  

 

At the same time, if managed properly, I expect the offense to be the most prolific offense in franchise history and possibly tops in the league.  If Torrence and McGovern are for real then this will be the best OL we've had on McD's watch, and if Kincaid is for real, then we should also easily have the best receivers we've had on his watch as well.  RBs, no worse than any other season.  But if those things end up not being for real, then some more serious questions need to start being asked.  

 

Either way, I'm still not sure what renders these thoughts so outrageous that they're not even tolerable per prior posts.  

 

Anyway, again, camp time.  First preseason game in two weeks.  We'll know how the season has unfolded in four more months or so.  

 

Go BILLS!!!!  

 

 

 

I won't reply to all of this because some of it is irrelevant to the conversation. 

 

I don't understand how you think I am being inconsistent. I never put Salgado down as being inexperienced. I never said Danna would be better. In fact I explicitly said I have no knowledge of him at all really - I did point out he is more experienced but I made no value judgment on whether that was better or worse. Nor do McDermott and Beane know that he is better. As far as I can tell they have never worked with him, so it will be a bit of a journey of discovery and they will have to evaluate him on his work as they go. 

 

I am not, and have not, said that McDermott and Beane have never made a mistake. Hell I have called them out many, many times on this forum for decisions they have made that I have disagreed with, particularly in terms of personnel. Of course the fact that they promoted Salgado a year ago and then fired him a year later suggests the promotion was not the right decision. I have never argued otherwise. I have said the safety play was not good last year but I have also said repeatedly it is hard to know how much of that is really attributable to Salgado given other factors. However, fan takes on whether the firing of a safeties coach was justfied or not are, by definition, less informed than decisions made by people who have actually watched him work with his players. Of course McDermott and Beane might still have got it wrong. But it does come down to I trust them, you don't.

 

And of course you don't have to trust them. You are free to form a different opinion but the reason I have continually objected to your posts in this thread is because you have now twice sought to make assertions to support your "thrown under the bus" narrative that are simply not true. First it was the claim that Salgado had been in charge of some of the best units in McDermott's tenure, when in fact he only became safeties coach a year ago. Then you sought to argue that there was something unusual about the timing of the Salgado firing which was also factually incorrect. 

 

Your argument therefore rests on:

1. He was the coach of a unit missing one of its stars and with another restricted;

2. He was the only coach fired. 

 

I don't disagree with either of those points but they don't takr you far enough to prove your argument. And I think you know that which is why you have tried to bolster it by asserting the other things, which are not true. 

 

As for the Bills prospects for the season, I too think the OL has the chance to be the best that Beane has fielded (and I say Beane because I do think the OL struggles have been about talent not about anything else). I also think it is likely the defense takes a step back. Not least because they have been a top 6 defense for 4 of the past 5 seasons and that run is incredibly difficult to maintain. The Legion of Boom were top 5 for five years in a row and top 10 for six years in a row which is the best run in the last 15 years. The Steelers managed five in a row in the top 10 at the end of the last decade. The Bills are at 4 out of 5 and those 4 have all ranked 6th or better. The reason it is hard is because guys age out - Hyde and Poyer; you lose guys to FA - Edmunds; guys get hurt and are not quite the same - White last year certainly qualifies he has a lot to prove in 2023 and there will be a question mark around Von too. And it isn't like offense where if you have an elite QB your floor is pretty high even if you do lose 3 or 4 guys. On defense if 3 or 4 of your better players leave or are diminished your production will suffer. Add that to what looks on paper a tougher slate of QB opponents and I do think it is reasonable to expect a slide back. I still expect them to be somewhere in or around the fringes of the top 10, because I know McDermott to be a very good defensive mind and they still have a lot of good players on that side of the ball even if, Milano apart, it is hard to point at any of them who are slam dunks to play at a high level in 2023 for various reasons. So while I might not agree with "massive" step back, I do think it is likely the Bills are worse than 6th in total defense in 2023.

 

[Dan in Owego]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I won't reply to all of this because some of it is irrelevant to the conversation. 

 

I don't understand how you think I am being inconsistent. I never put Salgado down as being inexperienced. I never said Danna would be better. In fact I explicitly said I have no knowledge of him at all really - I did point out he is more experienced but I made no value judgment on whether that was better or worse. Nor do McDermott and Beane know that he is better. As far as I can tell they have never worked with him, so it will be a bit of a journey of discovery and they will have to evaluate him on his work as they go. 

 

I am not, and have not, said that McDermott and Beane have never made a mistake. Hell I have called them out many, many times on this forum for decisions they have made that I have disagreed with, particularly in terms of personnel. Of course the fact that they promoted Salgado a year ago and then fired him a year later suggests the promotion was not the right decision. I have never argued otherwise. I have said the safety play was not good last year but I have also said repeatedly it is hard to know how much of that is really attributable to Salgado given other factors. However, fan takes on whether the firing of a safeties coach was justfied or not are, by definition, less informed than decisions made by people who have actually watched him work with his players. Of course McDermott and Beane might still have got it wrong. But it does come down to I trust them, you don't.

 

And of course you don't have to trust them. You are free to form a different opinion but the reason I have continually objected to your posts in this thread is because you have now twice sought to make assertions to support your "thrown under the bus" narrative that are simply not true. First it was the claim that Salgado had been in charge of some of the best units in McDermott's tenure, when in fact he only became safeties coach a year ago. Then you sought to argue that there was something unusual about the timing of the Salgado firing which was also factually incorrect. 

 

Your argument therefore rests on:

1. He was the coach of a unit missing one of its stars and with another restricted;

2. He was the only coach fired. 

 

I don't disagree with either of those points but they don't takr you far enough to prove your argument. And I think you know that which is why you have tried to bolster it by asserting the other things, which are not true. 

 

As for the Bills prospects for the season, I too think the OL has the chance to be the best that Beane has fielded (and I say Beane because I do think the OL struggles have been about talent not about anything else). I also think it is likely the defense takes a step back. Not least because they have been a top 6 defense for 4 of the past 5 seasons and that run is incredibly difficult to maintain. The Legion of Boom were top 5 for five years in a row and top 10 for six years in a row which is the best run in the last 15 years. The Steelers managed five in a row in the top 10 at the end of the last decade. The Bills are at 4 out of 5 and those 4 have all ranked 6th or better. The reason it is hard is because guys age out - Hyde and Poyer; you lose guys to FA - Edmunds; guys get hurt and are not quite the same - White last year certainly qualifies he has a lot to prove in 2023 and there will be a question mark around Von too. And it isn't like offense where if you have an elite QB your floor is pretty high even if you do lose 3 or 4 guys. On defense if 3 or 4 of your better players leave or are diminished your production will suffer. Add that to what looks on paper a tougher slate of QB opponents and I do think it is reasonable to expect a slide back. I still expect them to be somewhere in or around the fringes of the top 10, because I know McDermott to be a very good defensive mind and they still have a lot of good players on that side of the ball even if, Milano apart, it is hard to point at any of them who are slam dunks to play at a high level in 2023 for various reasons. So while I might not agree with "massive" step back, I do think it is likely the Bills are worse than 6th in total defense in 2023.

 

I am hoping the Defense becomes more unpredictable and big play this year, really am over the high statistical rankings. Just get Allen back the ball period any way shape or form. Really think this could play out this year fingers crossed.

[PBF81]

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

And of course you don't have to trust them. You are free to form a different opinion but the reason I have continually objected to your posts in this thread is because you have now twice sought to make assertions to support your "thrown under the bus" narrative that are simply not true. First it was the claim that Salgado had been in charge of some of the best units in McDermott's tenure, when in fact he only became safeties coach a year ago. Then you sought to argue that there was something unusual about the timing of the Salgado firing which was also factually incorrect. 

 

Thanks, am I though, free to form a different opinion?   Doesn't seem so according to Primetime101.  Also, given our conversation, I fail to see how the differences in our beliefs are so horrendous, which you essentially agreed with him on, to the extent that they're simply unbearable and so cringeworthy that it's difficult to read.  I'm also not reading that in the exchange that you and I are now having.  So was it for effect?  Tantrum?  what?  I'm not seeing the trauma inducing issue.  That is all.  

 

Otherwise, I originally said that he was in charge of the best unit, and it is with both Poyer and Hyde uninjured, but neither was the case last season.  Despite that, they were hardly the weakness of the team last season.  I thought he did a great job given that.  

 

 

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

As for the Bills prospects for the season, I too think the OL has the chance to be the best that Beane has fielded (and I say Beane because I do think the OL struggles have been about talent not about anything else).   

 

One of my points is that Beane has been asleep at the wheel re: the OL.  You appear to corroborate that, or at least something along those lines by implication.  

 

 

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I also think it is likely the defense takes a step back. Not least because they have been a top 6 defense for 4 of the past 5 seasons and that run is incredibly difficult to maintain. The Legion of Boom were top 5 for five years in a row and top 10 for six years in a row which is the best run in the last 15 years. The Steelers managed five in a row in the top 10 at the end of the last decade. The Bills are at 4 out of 5 and those 4 have all ranked 6th or better. The reason it is hard is because guys age out - Hyde and Poyer; you lose guys to FA - Edmunds; guys get hurt and are not quite the same - White last year certainly qualifies he has a lot to prove in 2023 and there will be a question mark around Von too. And it isn't like offense where if you have an elite QB your floor is pretty high even if you do lose 3 or 4 guys. On defense if 3 or 4 of your better players leave or are diminished your production will suffer. Add that to what looks on paper a tougher slate of QB opponents and I do think it is reasonable to expect a slide back. I still expect them to be somewhere in or around the fringes of the top 10, because I know McDermott to be a very good defensive mind and they still have a lot of good players on that side of the ball even if, Milano apart, it is hard to point at any of them who are slam dunks to play at a high level in 2023 for various reasons. So while I might not agree with "massive" step back, I do think it is likely the Bills are worse than 6th in total defense in 2023.

 

I generally agree with that, perhaps not quite as favorable, but within the same general vacinity.  

 

When I said massive, I meant a drop from the 2nd and 1st Scoring Defenses from the past two seasons to around average, which to me would be massive, so perhaps I should have defined that better, for that I take fault.  2020 is a ways from where we are now, for trend purposes I typically include only the past couple of seasons depending upon the analysis, in this case an assessment of the forthcoming season.  As an overall body of work for a coach I might defer to the entire body, although would typically discount the first season for one of several reasons.  

 

Yardage Ds, as I maintain, you don't win games by logging more yards or by preventing fewer yards, are what I defer to typically.  Scoring is the baseline.  Granted, there's a relationship, but it's not as solid as some like to think.  And if say a team has the 1st ranked Yardage Offense, but only the 11th ranked Scoring Offense, then it suggests an inability to finish out drives among perhaps a few other things, as merely an example.  When scoring lags yardage it's not good, when scoring outpaces yardage it's good.  It can also mean better STs play for instance.  

 

So massive to me in this sense is from that 2nd/1st to somewhere in the average range.  And I've mentioned why a bunch of times.  MLB, DL Pass Rush, and CBs.  

 

I agree with you about a questionmark around Von.  But at 34, if he's even above average coming off the injury that he had, he'll be bucking the trend given the rehab/age combo.  And the other day I posted last season's sack numbers by the players 33+.  It's not favorable for him.  

 

Without a significant MLB I don't see our D being stout at all.  That's simply too big a gap in the D to ignore.  Good DCs will pick that apart easily either running or passing.  Much talk about newbie/rookie Williams playing MLB, but that's not his strength and there's not one draft preview/profile that suggests otherwise, in fact, they all say the opposite, that he's not designed for that role.  That includes nfl.com's, pff's, and several other of the more prominent ones, which generally all agree with one another across the board anyway, which shouldn't be a shock.  That likely leaves Bernard or Dotson, how optimistic is that.  For me it's not.  

 

As to our CBs, they weren't good last season.  I expect White to be 80-90% at least back to his old form, but that's not guaranteed, so we'll see.  If not, if he continues to struggle, then I also see CB as a weakness.  

As to McD being a good defensive mind, that for sure is his strength, particularly re: the secondary, from which he hales, but again, what's his body of work on that?  We're now told, and even by you in our exchange, that he hasn't been responsible for the D here.  So his time here is no indication on paper.  It's not sound to attribute all the good things to him while all the failures to Frazier now that he's gone.  His time at Carolina was incredibly mixed and inconsistent at best, with his last season there having been well below average, and his 6 seasons total having been patently average otherwise, averaging 17th in Scoring D and 13th in Yardage D, again, with that unfavorable difference between the two.  

 

Either way, in four of his 6 seasons he finished with the 18th, 21st, 26th, and 27th ranked Scoring Ds, none of which is good.  Even if we discount his rookie season it's not good.  Sure, he also had the 2nd and 6th ranked Scoring Ds one season, but as I pointed out, in one of those two seasons he also had the easiest schedule of any NFL team from 2011 through 2022, 12 seasons.  So that should be considered as well.  

 

Either way, and rhetorically since there's no concrete answer, but which should count more, those two good seasons, one with the easiest schedule that any NFL team has had over the past dozen seasons, or the other four?  ... even if we discount his rookie season despite him staying on the same team, that still leaves three seasons, the 18th, 21st, and 26th ranked Scoring D seasons, the last of which, 26th, was his second worse and only worse than his rookie season. (27th)   His successor, Steve Wilks, a nothing coach who's now on his 6th different team in as many seasons, bumped it up 15 spots in Scoring and 14 spots in Yardage the following season with a much more difficult schedule that McD had in all six of his seasons there.  

 

So as I do, to suggest that there's cause for concern and he's hardly got a Belichick like defensive record coming to us, also isn't an over the top concern or opinion.  It's more an unsubstantiated narrative that he's more than an average DC.  Again, not bad, simply not nearly as good as the official narrative.  So this season will be very definitive on many levels.  

 

IMO he's a good DC but not as good as many fans here seem to think, which is normal for fans of all teams.  ... until it isn't.  LOL  

 

So we'll see, and as you say, the schedule this season will be tougher than any he's faced here or in Carolina, and likely the only one he'll have ever faced that was much more difficult than average.  If not, then we'll end up being fortunate.  Last season's schedule had a Strength-of-Schedule that was barely harder than average.  The five seasons prior all were below average, twice considerably easier, thrice marginally easier.  

 

Add all that up, combine it with him head coaching and defensive coordinating at the same time, and he's got his hands more than full.  

 

I expect the offense to carry this team, the defense to be in the average range (13th thru 17th or so) in Scoring D, and how good the O will be to be based upon the size of the step that Dorsey takes this season.  If he takes a big leap then we can easily win it all.  If he struggles, then IMO winning the division won't be a given.  

 

I don't expect fans or media to be patient should the wheels begin to come off this season, particularly should we experience yet another divisional or wild-card round loss in the playoffs, to anyone.  I don't expect the majority of fans here to be patient either should that be the case.  If the opposite happens and we win the SB then we can all die happy and nothing else will ever matter.  

 

Anyway, it's a lot to have to happen for the best outcome.  

 

MLB needs to be resolved and w/o any likely options at this point

McD needs to prove better than an average 17th ranked Scoring D coach and he'll have to do it against the toughest schedule he'll have ever faced 

Dorsey needs to not handcuff the offense and start calling plays that keeps Ds on their toes rather than the more predictable stuff we've been doing while letting Allen do it all.  Is Dorsey up to the task?  

White needs to return to form and another CB needs to step up to become an above-average starting CB 

We need to have at least one more pass-rusher be able to dominate 

Offensively Kincaid really needs to match Beane's optimism on him.  

We need the running game to be more prominent and effective 

 

IMO Von Miller returning to anything close to his former self will be a massive bonus.  

 

So we'll see.  I think we've covered it all.     

 

At the end of the day we all have the same hope, or most of us anyway, a Lombardi!   At least those of us that went through our '90s campaigns.  It's getting more urgent and we all realize that we're incredibly unlikely to land another "Josh Allen" once this current era ends, particularly given our struggles since the Kelly era.  

 

Go BILLS!!!  

 

 

[buffblue]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks, am I though, free to form a different opinion?   Doesn't seem so according to Primetime101.  Also, given our conversation, I fail to see how the differences in our beliefs are so horrendous, which you essentially agreed with him on, to the extent that they're simply unbearable and so cringeworthy that it's difficult to read.  I'm also not reading that in the exchange that you and I are now having.  So was it for effect?  Tantrum?  what?  I'm not seeing the trauma inducing issue.  That is all.  

 

Otherwise, I originally said that he was in charge of the best unit, and it is with both Poyer and Hyde uninjured, but neither was the case last season.  Despite that, they were hardly the weakness of the team last season.  I thought he did a great job given that.  

 

 

 

One of my points is that Beane has been asleep at the wheel re: the OL.  You appear to corroborate that, or at least something along those lines by implication.  

 

 

 

I generally agree with that, perhaps not quite as favorable, but within the same general vacinity.  

 

When I said massive, I meant a drop from the 2nd and 1st Scoring Defenses from the past two seasons to around average, which to me would be massive, so perhaps I should have defined that better, for that I take fault.  2020 is a ways from where we are now, for trend purposes I typically include only the past couple of seasons depending upon the analysis, in this case an assessment of the forthcoming season.  As an overall body of work for a coach I might defer to the entire body, although would typically discount the first season for one of several reasons.  

 

Yardage Ds, as I maintain, you don't win games by logging more yards or by preventing fewer yards, are what I defer to typically.  Scoring is the baseline.  Granted, there's a relationship, but it's not as solid as some like to think.  And if say a team has the 1st ranked Yardage Offense, but only the 11th ranked Scoring Offense, then it suggests an inability to finish out drives among perhaps a few other things, as merely an example.  When scoring lags yardage it's not good, when scoring outpaces yardage it's good.  It can also mean better STs play for instance.  

 

So massive to me in this sense is from that 2nd/1st to somewhere in the average range.  And I've mentioned why a bunch of times.  MLB, DL Pass Rush, and CBs.  

 

I agree with you about a questionmark around Von.  But at 34, if he's even above average coming off the injury that he had, he'll be bucking the trend given the rehab/age combo.  And the other day I posted last season's sack numbers by the players 33+.  It's not favorable for him.  

 

Without a significant MLB I don't see our D being stout at all.  That's simply too big a gap in the D to ignore.  Good DCs will pick that apart easily either running or passing.  Much talk about newbie/rookie Williams playing MLB, but that's not his strength and there's not one draft preview/profile that suggests otherwise, in fact, they all say the opposite, that he's not designed for that role.  That includes nfl.com's, pff's, and several other of the more prominent ones, which generally all agree with one another across the board anyway, which shouldn't be a shock.  That likely leaves Bernard or Dotson, how optimistic is that.  For me it's not.  

 

As to our CBs, they weren't good last season.  I expect White to be 80-90% at least back to his old form, but that's not guaranteed, so we'll see.  If not, if he continues to struggle, then I also see CB as a weakness.  

As to McD being a good defensive mind, that for sure is his strength, particularly re: the secondary, from which he hales, but again, what's his body of work on that?  We're now told, and even by you in our exchange, that he hasn't been responsible for the D here.  So his time here is no indication on paper.  It's not sound to attribute all the good things to him while all the failures to Frazier now that he's gone.  His time at Carolina was incredibly mixed and inconsistent at best, with his last season there having been well below average, and his 6 seasons total having been patently average otherwise, averaging 17th in Scoring D and 13th in Yardage D, again, with that unfavorable difference between the two.  

 

Either way, in four of his 6 seasons he finished with the 18th, 21st, 26th, and 27th ranked Scoring Ds, none of which is good.  Even if we discount his rookie season it's not good.  Sure, he also had the 2nd and 6th ranked Scoring Ds one season, but as I pointed out, in one of those two seasons he also had the easiest schedule of any NFL team from 2011 through 2022, 12 seasons.  So that should be considered as well.  

 

Either way, and rhetorically since there's no concrete answer, but which should count more, those two good seasons, one with the easiest schedule that any NFL team has had over the past dozen seasons, or the other four?  ... even if we discount his rookie season despite him staying on the same team, that still leaves three seasons, the 18th, 21st, and 26th ranked Scoring D seasons, the last of which, 26th, was his second worse and only worse than his rookie season. (27th)   His successor, Steve Wilks, a nothing coach who's now on his 6th different team in as many seasons, bumped it up 15 spots in Scoring and 14 spots in Yardage the following season with a much more difficult schedule that McD had in all six of his seasons there.  

 

So as I do, to suggest that there's cause for concern and he's hardly got a Belichick like defensive record coming to us, also isn't an over the top concern or opinion.  It's more an unsubstantiated narrative that he's more than an average DC.  Again, not bad, simply not nearly as good as the official narrative.  So this season will be very definitive on many levels.  

 

IMO he's a good DC but not as good as many fans here seem to think, which is normal for fans of all teams.  ... until it isn't.  LOL  

 

So we'll see, and as you say, the schedule this season will be tougher than any he's faced here or in Carolina, and likely the only one he'll have ever faced that was much more difficult than average.  If not, then we'll end up being fortunate.  Last season's schedule had a Strength-of-Schedule that was barely harder than average.  The five seasons prior all were below average, twice considerably easier, thrice marginally easier.  

 

Add all that up, combine it with him head coaching and defensive coordinating at the same time, and he's got his hands more than full.  

 

I expect the offense to carry this team, the defense to be in the average range (13th thru 17th or so) in Scoring D, and how good the O will be to be based upon the size of the step that Dorsey takes this season.  If he takes a big leap then we can easily win it all.  If he struggles, then IMO winning the division won't be a given.  

 

I don't expect fans or media to be patient should the wheels begin to come off this season, particularly should we experience yet another divisional or wild-card round loss in the playoffs, to anyone.  I don't expect the majority of fans here to be patient either should that be the case.  If the opposite happens and we win the SB then we can all die happy and nothing else will ever matter.  

 

Anyway, it's a lot to have to happen for the best outcome.  

 

MLB needs to be resolved and w/o any likely options at this point

McD needs to prove better than an average 17th ranked Scoring D coach and he'll have to do it against the toughest schedule he'll have ever faced 

Dorsey needs to not handcuff the offense and start calling plays that keeps Ds on their toes rather than the more predictable stuff we've been doing while letting Allen do it all.  Is Dorsey up to the task?  

White needs to return to form and another CB needs to step up to become an above-average starting CB 

We need to have at least one more pass-rusher be able to dominate 

Offensively Kincaid really needs to match Beane's optimism on him.  

We need the running game to be more prominent and effective 

 

IMO Von Miller returning to anything close to his former self will be a massive bonus.  

 

So we'll see.  I think we've covered it all.     

 

At the end of the day we all have the same hope, or most of us anyway, a Lombardi!   At least those of us that went through our '90s campaigns.  It's getting more urgent and we all realize that we're incredibly unlikely to land another "Josh Allen" once this current era ends, particularly given our struggles since the Kelly era.  

 

Go BILLS!!!  

 

 

I've been staying out of yours and Gunner's battle, but this back and forth is highly entertaining. Vamos

[PBF81]

24 minutes ago, buffblue said:

I've been staying out of yours and Gunner's battle, but this back and forth is highly entertaining. Vamos

 

Thanks, I enjoy a good well thought out back-n-forth.  

 

I think we've skinned that cat about as much as we're going to 'til now.  Time for the new season to begin and develop.