Rewatching the Week 3 Dolphins game

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Now this narrative i 100% agree with.  HC is accountable for everything. I get that. 

 

Except that McD isn't, he's become very effective at throwing others under the bus furtively.  

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

OP 3rd and long like it or not is a drop everyone deep defensive call for almost all teams across the league. 

Then you hope one of your three guys can beat their block to hurry the QB. 

Allen would like nothing more than to see them rush 5 and give Diggs,Davis, or Knox a 1:1 situation on 3rd and long. 

You can scream for more blitzes all you want but they just aren't going to happen. I just can't see how McD play calling will be any different than Frazier. 

The only hope for the defense is Miller and Rousseau developing into pass rushers. Beane crapped the bed with Epenesa and Basham picks. I still hate the Oliver pick. He will never be the inside pass rusher they hoped. 

Bills have the secondary to contain most teams. I believed Edmunds was a fraud and a myth that he took away passing options with his length. Will be interesting to see if I was right or wrong. 

McD should play to his strengths and play a deep cover shell and force teams to play perfect football to beat them. 

Bills have an offense that can outscore anyone. The D just needs a few stops or forced FGs a game to win. 

[buffblue]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

OP 3rd and long like it or not is a drop everyone deep defensive call for almost all teams across the league. 

Then you hope one of your three guys can beat their block to hurry the QB. 

Allen would like nothing more than to see them rush 5 and give Diggs,Davis, or Knox a 1:1 situation on 3rd and long. 

You can scream for more blitzes all you want but they just aren't going to happen. I just can't see how McD play calling will be any different than Frazier. 

The only hope for the defense is Miller and Rousseau developing into pass rushers. Beane crapped the bed with Epenesa and Basham picks. I still hate the Oliver pick. He will never be the inside pass rusher they hoped. 

Bills have the secondary to contain most teams. I believed Edmunds was a fraud and a myth that he took away passing options with his length. Will be interesting to see if I was right or wrong. 

McD should play to his strengths and play a deep cover shell and force teams to play perfect football to beat them. 

Bills have an offense that can outscore anyone. The D just needs a few stops or forced FGs a game to win. 

The problem is that only seems to work against average at best teams with garbage qb's. We have seen this defense time and time again get picked apart in third and long situations against good teams. 

 

And while I agree a lot of teams would dial up a similar call in that situation, that doesn't mean it's the right play imo. You think a guy like Wink Martindale would passively drop 8 when you got a team by the balls? 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Hindsight is always 20/20 and it's very easy to sit back and say, yup that was the wrong call after the fact.

 

Realistically, if you are dropping 8 on a 3rd and 22 there should be no reason that there's a place for Tua to bomb it to if the players execute their jobs. Even with extra time to throw. Yes, Frazier is a passive coach. But that one is on the guys on the field IMO.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

26 minutes ago, buffblue said:

The problem is that only seems to work against average at best teams with garbage qb's. We have seen this defense time and time again get picked apart in third and long situations against good teams. 

 

And while I agree a lot of teams would dial up a similar call in that situation, that doesn't mean it's the right play imo. You think a guy like Wink Martindale would passively drop 8 when you got a team by the balls? 

Wow. You couldn't be more wrong.  Blitizing elite QBs is a recipe for disaster. And no I'm not calling Tua elite but he is accurate enough to beat the blitz.

Getting pressure on the QB rushing 4 is the best way to win. Now you can rush four guys in a multitude of different ways - stunts and zone blitzes for instance. But sending more than 4 guys against good to elite QBs will get your burned more than not.

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, buffblue said:

That's what gives me a bit of hope. I followed the Panthers pretty closely here in Charlotte during McD's tenure and they were never as timid as the defense has been run in Buffalo

 

They also weren't anywhere near consistently good either.  

 

It should be interesting for sure.  It seems that in comparison the DLs are similar, but that the LBs on the Panthers back then we're notably superior.  

 

 

[VaMilBill]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson were the starting safeties iirc

 

Tough to blame that on Frazier

Jaquan Johnson is pretty bad. He is always late and takes horrible angles…always. 

[78thealltimegreat]

9 hours ago, buffblue said:

Mostly known for the insane heat the game featured, I decided to take a closer look as the 2023 season fast approaches. There has been much talk about McD taking over the defensive playcalling this year and how he will hopefully improve on Frazier's soft tendencies. I don't know how this will turn out, but the Week 3 game against the Dolphins revealed yet another example of Leslie playing it conservative in crunch time.

 

The situation: Miami faces a 3rd and 22 from around midfield with the Bills leading by 3 early in the 4th. Buffalo had aggressively stuffed the Dolphins to put them in what should have been a hopeless situation to convert. But rather than continuing to bring the heat against a subpar Miami OL (and with an obviously concussed Tua), Frazier elects to run a 3 man rush and our decimated secondary (missing all 4 nominal starters) gives up an easy bomb to Waddle inside the 5 resulting in the Dolphins taking the lead.

 

We all have our complaints as fans, many of them right and plenty wrong. But one thing I am optimistic about going into the 2023 season is the possibility of the Bills becoming an attacking defense. I'm OK with them giving up more yards and even a few more PPG if we can make more impact plays defensively. With Josh in his prime, we should always have an above average scoring offense. The complementary aspect of the game and making a few more critical, game changing plays each Sunday could pay far more dividends than the what the traditional statistical rankings imply.

If that makes you mad rewatch the Vikings game. 27-10 lead in the 3rd quarter and the D gives up Cooks touchdown. 
This defense has feasted on backup and rookie QBs but gets exposed against better competition. It was time to make a change as people outside Buffalo have no idea how small Leslie’s defenses came up when they needed a big stop. 

[buffblue]

6 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Wow. You couldn't be more wrong.  Blitizing elite QBs is a recipe for disaster. And no I'm not calling Tua elite but he is accurate enough to beat the blitz.

Getting pressure on the QB rushing 4 is the best way to win. Now you can rush four guys in a multitude of different ways - stunts and zone blitzes for instance. But sending more than 4 guys against good to elite QBs will get your burned more than not.

 

As it pertains to the original play in question, and given the injury circumstances, I do think bringing pressure would have been the appropriate defensive call.

 

No, blitzing liberally is not a recipe for success against top shelf qb's. But you have to find a way to bother them and get them off their mark somehow. Give some different looks and don't be so predictable. Look at Lou Anarumo - the guy has a chameleon scheme and adapts throughout the game. Statistically who has had the better defense between Buffalo and Cincinnati? Obviously the Bills. But what team do you think has a better chance of disrupting a top QB in the playoffs? The numbers aren't everything - we need more big plays on defense. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, SectionC3 said:

Not to mention the QB has a noodle arm and can't get the ball anywhere the sticks in that scenario fast.  

 

Tua threw over the Ravens secondary when they blitzed in a very similar scenario the week before.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

16 minutes ago, buffblue said:

As it pertains to the original play in question, and given the injury circumstances, I do think bringing pressure would have been the appropriate defensive call.

 

No, blitzing liberally is not a recipe for success against top shelf qb's. But you have to find a way to bother them and get them off their mark somehow. Give some different looks and don't be so predictable. Look at Lou Anarumo - the guy has a chameleon scheme and adapts throughout the game. Statistically who has had the better defense between Buffalo and Cincinnati? Obviously the Bills. But what team do you think has a better chance of disrupting a top QB in the playoffs? The numbers aren't everything - we need more big plays on defense. 

Pretty sure we are saying the same thing. Bring 4 guys but do it creatively.  

That said at the end of the day guys like Miller, Oliver, and Rousseau need to win some 1:1 matchups. Its not all scheme. 

Bengals have a great DL and are far more physical than the Bills. We are a soft team on defense and have been for years. Much better at chasing than attacking. We put up great numbers against bad QBs. There are times were we play extremely well against the run and other times that we get gashed by the run. Hard to explain really.

Anyways it doesn't matter. Allen and the offense are our only hope. 

 

[PBF81]

42 minutes ago, buffblue said:

As it pertains to the original play in question, and given the injury circumstances, I do think bringing pressure would have been the appropriate defensive call.

 

No, blitzing liberally is not a recipe for success against top shelf qb's. But you have to find a way to bother them and get them off their mark somehow. Give some different looks and don't be so predictable. Look at Lou Anarumo - the guy has a chameleon scheme and adapts throughout the game. Statistically who has had the better defense between Buffalo and Cincinnati? Obviously the Bills. But what team do you think has a better chance of disrupting a top QB in the playoffs? The numbers aren't everything - we need more big plays on defense. 

 

Agree

 

Here's the thing tho, this got me rewatching that 3rd-and-22 play.  

 

If you're only going to rush 3, then you'd damn well better have more than two guys covering, or at least prepared to cover beyond the 1st-down line, which was our 30.  

 

The play starts with us showing 6 on the line, only three commit to rush, which is obvious after the ball's snapped.  Tua sees this too.  

 

Seconds later after he releases the ball you can see that they've flooded the left side and we have 5 coverage guys on the line-of-scrimmage side of the 1st-down line.  4 of them are in the middle, 2 nowhere near any offensive player, 2 chasing whomever just passed them up the middle, and the other on the left side making sure that that Durham Smythe who blocked-and-released doesn't make a play.  The latter seems to have been the only coverage guy that knew what he was doing.  

 

Otherwise there are 2 safeties playing zone left to cover Waddle and whomever else that is (Hill presumably) that's wide open on the left side just after the 1st-down line and also in for a 1st-down and a big play if Tua goes to him.  

 

So in short, we have 3 guys rushing the passer, apart from Miller not even our best pass-rushers;  8 guys in coverage, where one of those was is a mystery, four were over the middle covering one guy, two of them really covering no one presumably there in case Tua tried to scramble or hit Mostert out of the backfield late (highly unlikely) one covering Smythe, and two left in zone to take on both WRs that ended up going deep beyond the 1st-down marker.  

 

And Miller, who was completely taken out of the play by Smythe on a great block before Smythe released, Basham and Jones are the three guys you want in that situation and 3-man rush?  Seriously?  That's coaching.  

 

That's clearly on coaching, at least largely, unless the players were told something different and ignored it, which I would then still suggest is a coaching issue, just of a different nature.  

 

Granted, it was hot, brains were melting, etc.  I get it, but on those singular big plays, arguably the biggest in the game, you've gotta pull your head outta your a$$.  Some of this should be instinctive and in-your-sleep kinda stuff for these guys.  

 

 

45 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

That said at the end of the day guys like Miller, Oliver, and Rousseau need to win some 1:1 matchups. Its not all scheme. 

 

I'm not a big Oliver fan, but those are the three that should have been pass-rushing that play.  Rousseau for sure.  I'd have even put Lawson or Epenesa in there before I'd have put Jones or Basham in there.  

 

 

[colin]

not only was LF a turtle of a man calling the D and getting predictable and lame in big situations, but i sure it made the players less confident.  

 

Corch mcd is putting his nuts on the line this season, there will be zero place to hide if his very expensive D falls apart again.

 

I think he's going to show improve, but it will have to play out for us to see.

[Nextmanup]

12 hours ago, buffblue said:

I decided to take a closer look as the 2023 season fast approaches.

I wish I lived in your world. because the 2023 season could not be approaching more slowly for me, particularly the more time I spend here! 

 

😂

 

Regarding the defense this year: I think we will try to be much more elusive, changing things up from play to play, drive to drive, game to game, so opponents will not know what we are doing.

 

We were unbelievably predictable last year, and our opponents told us as much in the post game interviews.

 

Still, we didn't really change!

 

🤔

[NewEra]

12 hours ago, buffblue said:

Mostly known for the insane heat the game featured, I decided to take a closer look as the 2023 season fast approaches. There has been much talk about McD taking over the defensive playcalling this year and how he will hopefully improve on Frazier's soft tendencies. I don't know how this will turn out, but the Week 3 game against the Dolphins revealed yet another example of Leslie playing it conservative in crunch time.

 

The situation: Miami faces a 3rd and 22 from around midfield with the Bills leading by 3 early in the 4th. Buffalo had aggressively stuffed the Dolphins to put them in what should have been a hopeless situation to convert. But rather than continuing to bring the heat against a subpar Miami OL (and with an obviously concussed Tua), Frazier elects to run a 3 man rush and our decimated secondary (missing all 4 nominal starters) gives up an easy bomb to Waddle inside the 5 resulting in the Dolphins taking the lead.

 

We all have our complaints as fans, many of them right and plenty wrong. But one thing I am optimistic about going into the 2023 season is the possibility of the Bills becoming an attacking defense. I'm OK with them giving up more yards and even a few more PPG if we can make more impact plays defensively. With Josh in his prime, we should always have an above average scoring offense. The complementary aspect of the game and making a few more critical, game changing plays each Sunday could pay far more dividends than the what the traditional statistical rankings imply.

The vaunted 3 man rush 🤦🏻‍♂️ 

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

12 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know if blitzing there is right or not tbh

 

I do know they are terrified of Tyreek Hill and it shows up in bad spots

But the solution didn’t have to be blitz.  It’s could’ve been rush 4, play press man and a delayed blitz by Milano.

 

Im confident McD will be aggressive when warranted.

[34-78-83]

Man, It’s easy to forget that even in the crazy heat, and with all the cramping, our offense went up and down the field on them all day long, but just couldn’t punch it in in the red zone.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

12 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know if blitzing there is right or not tbh

 

I do know they are terrified of Tyreek Hill and it shows up in bad spots

as they should be… the bills secondary isn’t fast, and the second string that was in is slower… soft deep coverage with aggressive pass rush would’ve been my vote. 

 

Tyreek is the fastest wr in the nfl and Waddle isn’t far behind. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, machine gun kelly said:

But the solution didn’t have to be blitz.  It’s could’ve been rush 4, play press man and a delayed blitz by Milano.

 

Im confident McD will be aggressive when warranted.

based on this thread I'm not confident anything McDermott does short of sending 8 in cover0 will be aggressive enough

 

 

[2003Contenders]

It helps, I think, to provide some perspective on this game -- the game-day conditions and what was going on at that time in the season.

 

1. The defensive backfield was ridiculously under-manned -- with multiple rookies being pressed into action in only the 3rd game of the season. Recall that it was the previous Monday night game against the Titans when so many defenders -- including both of our All Pro level safeties -- were injured. So these young guys were asked to step up early in the season against 2 of the best WRs in the league and on a short week, no less.

 

2. As we know, that day it was ridiculously hot and guys were battling through heat-related ailments. The coaches were doing their best to rotate guys (as McD always likes to do with the DL), but guys were having to be escorted off the field to get IV's etc. So, while the 3 pass rushers on that play (aside from Miller) may not have been our best 3, it is possible that they were the guys that were "fresh" enough to play on that down.

 

Not at all giving Frazier a pass here, as I think the 3rd-and-22 play was indicative of how he coached "scared" a number of times during the season (most obviously in the playoff game against Cinci). But, given the situation -- multiple young and inexperienced players in key positions, the weather conditions and the quality of opposing receivers on the field -- I get it.

 

I am more inclined to be disappointed in the OL (who allowed M. Ingram to get a clean shot on Josh and force a fumble to allow the Dolphins to get into the game at a time when it looked like yet another blowout against Miami was in the works), multiple key drops by G. Davis, and poor decisions by McKenzie in terms of clock preservation at the end of the half as well as the end of the game. Obviously, Josh missing the layup pass to the wide open McKenzie at the goal line -- but he could honestly barely stand at the point of the game himself.