Playoffs, 4th and 8, game is on the line (personel hypothetical).

[Bills Fan in MD]

I agree that Davis needs to be on that list, but that also is the perfect setup for a soul-crushing drop that will haunt fans for years to come.  I realize that he's come up clutch before, but as someone who remembers watching the Ronnie Harmon drop I'd be holding my breath every second that ball is in the air.

[YattaOkasan]

5 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Diggs, Kincaid, Knox, and Sherfield (physicality, best blocking WR according to PFF I read, and good hands).

 

Fifth guy could be Harris for blocking (if he has hands too) or maybe Harty for his quickness.

My sanity check applies to everyone saying Kincaid and Knox for this hypothetical.  If youre calling 12 personnel in this clear passing situation, do you think we are a majority 12 personnel team now?  I would expect us to put our best passing options on the field a majority of the time, and if 12 personnel is the grouping for this clear passing down then arent you saying well be a majority 12 personnel team?  I dont see us as a majority 12 personnel team yet (hoping for 25%+ which puts us top half of the league)

[Nephilim17]

12 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

My sanity check applies to everyone saying Kincaid and Knox for this hypothetical.  If youre calling 12 personnel in this clear passing situation, do you think we are a majority 12 personnel team now?  I would expect us to put our best passing options on the field a majority of the time, and if 12 personnel is the grouping for this clear passing down then arent you saying well be a majority 12 personnel team?  I dont see us as a majority 12 personnel team yet (hoping for 25%+ which puts us top half of the league)

First, the situation is 4th and 8. Fairly short yardage where route running, size, hands and quickness mean more than straight-line speed.

Second, Kincaid is more of a big slot WR than a TE, so that's not typical 12 personnel. 

 

Diggs is a given. I maintain Kincaid is the second-best pass catcher in this down and distance. Do you feel there are  two receivers on this team better than Knox for fourth and 8? If you said Sherfield and Harty, I might listen. I simply don't trust Davis' route running that tight or his hands. If it were fourth and 20, maybe.

 

Third, Allen is threat to run with 8 yards to go and big bodies will be better blockers. Like Knox.

 

I'm not tied to Knox but I am staunch in my belief that Kincaid is one of the two or three best wide receivers on this team for that down and distance. You will see.

 

Edited July 25, 2023 by Nephilim17

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Hmm... my intrigue in 12 personnel is cause of the match up problem it creates.  That personnel grouping was alluded to earlier in this thread that it would "stress" the defense.  Are both Kincaid/Knox really gonna be better than WR3 at getting open on a clear passing down?  Youre saying yes cause they are our four best receiving options.  From that logic, can you tell me if you expect us to be in 12 personnel the majority of the time?  I just dont see that happening this year.  

 

Knox separated better than all our receivers except Diggs last year by NextGen stats. Now okay, we have added Sherfield and Harty etc... maybe they separate better, but until I see it proven otherwise, yes, I think Knox and Kincaid will separate better than every receiver except Diggs. Will we be in 12 a lot of the time? I think our personnel grouping will be 12 a lot, yes. I think formation wise it will still look like we are in a lot of 11. If we are taking Knox off the field to get Kincaid on the field or not using Kincaid because we have Knox then the Bills screwed the pooch in April. I think Brandon Beane will be desperate not to have another season where his first round pick struggles to get on the field. When that happens back to back years eyes inevitably go to the General Manager's office. 

[Airseven]

Isn’t this obvious? How about a hypothetical play call that includes a contingency when Allen gets bum rushed.

[boyst]

Iirc it was DiMarco, Singleterry, Lee smith, and 2 others. 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

First, the situation is 4th and 8. Fairly short yardage where route running, size, hands and quickness mean more than straight-line speed.

Second, Kincaid is more of a big slot WR than a TE, so that's not typical 12 personnel. 

 

Diggs is a given. I maintain Kincaid is the second-best pass catcher in this down and distance. Do you feel there are  two receivers on this team better than Knox for fourth and 8? If you said Sherfield and Harty, I might listen. I simply don't trust Davis' route running that tight or his hands. If it were fourth and 20, maybe.

 

Third, Allen is threat to run with 8 yards to go and big bodies will be better blockers. Like Knox.

 

I'm not tied to Knox but I am staunch in my belief that Kincaid is one of the two or three best wide receivers on this team for that down and distance. You will see.

 

 

And where we use Knox as a high volume tight end - redzone - he produces like a top 5 tight end and is our second most productive player over the past 2 seasons. Now 4th and 8 at your own 25 isn't the same as the redzone, but it can still require a guy who can get open in condensed spaces and catch the ball. Knox has proven he can. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

The question is moot.

 

McD will find a way to blow it somehow.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, akcash said:

Yeah basically the point of this thread was to see if people would opt for 3 wars and one tight end or 2 tight ends and if it was 3 wrs and one tight end who the TE will be. 

 

I feel like Harty is going to be tough to keep off the field when the game is on the line and if that happens which TE stays on the field. And imo its Kincaid.

Kincaid is unproven and at a difficult position to pick up. Harty is fast.
 

im making sure my proven clutch players are out there; 

 

1) Josh 

2) Diggs

3) Gabe (he’s been clutch in big moments) 

4) knox 

5) Shakir  

6) RB or one of the other guys you mention 

[billsfan89]

Hard to say, you usually base those things how the game is flowing so hard to make that call but you can't go wrong with Diggs.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Knox separated better than all our receivers except Diggs last year by NextGen stats. Now okay, we have added Sherfield and Harty etc... maybe they separate better, but until I see it proven otherwise, yes, I think Knox and Kincaid will separate better than every receiver except Diggs. Will we be in 12 a lot of the time? I think our personnel grouping will be 12 a lot, yes. I think formation wise it will still look like we are in a lot of 11. If we are taking Knox off the field to get Kincaid on the field or not using Kincaid because we have Knox then the Bills screwed the pooch in April. I think Brandon Beane will be desperate not to have another season where his first round pick struggles to get on the field. When that happens back to back years eyes inevitably go to the General Manager's office. 

TEs are always going to score higher in those separation yard stats because they're covered by LBs at a way higher rate than wideouts

[GunnerBill]

51 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

TEs are always going to score higher in those separation yard stats because they're covered by LBs at a way higher rate than wideouts

 

Yea that is fair. But the tape bears it out too. Knox gets open.

 

Edit: and he is still going to be the traditional tight end. So he is still going to be the guy picked up by linebackers and occasionally safeties. To the extent that anyone is going to be covered by a corner in that situation it is Kincaid.

Edited July 25, 2023 by GunnerBill

[YattaOkasan]

3 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

First, the situation is 4th and 8. Fairly short yardage where route running, size, hands and quickness mean more than straight-line speed.

Second, Kincaid is more of a big slot WR than a TE, so that's not typical 12 personnel. 

 

Diggs is a given. I maintain Kincaid is the second-best pass catcher in this down and distance. Do you feel there are  two receivers on this team better than Knox for fourth and 8? If you said Sherfield and Harty, I might listen. I simply don't trust Davis' route running that tight or his hands. If it were fourth and 20, maybe.

 

Third, Allen is threat to run with 8 yards to go and big bodies will be better blockers. Like Knox.

 

I'm not tied to Knox but I am staunch in my belief that Kincaid is one of the two or three best wide receivers on this team for that down and distance. You will see.

 

Its still a clear passing down so they will not get the matchups they would get in a passing or running down.  I think Sherfield and Harty are both better separators (Davis potentially too) against the personnel that would be seen on this type of down.  I am up and down on the big bodies.  I see what youre saying but I wonder if the data supports that logic (does it matter or does Josh run well enough no matter how many TEs).  I agree that Kincaid is gonna be one of our best pass catchers.  Knox being in for protection is part of the reason I could see for why he would be on the field.

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Knox separated better than all our receivers except Diggs last year by NextGen stats. Now okay, we have added Sherfield and Harty etc... maybe they separate better, but until I see it proven otherwise, yes, I think Knox and Kincaid will separate better than every receiver except Diggs. Will we be in 12 a lot of the time? I think our personnel grouping will be 12 a lot, yes. I think formation wise it will still look like we are in a lot of 11. If we are taking Knox off the field to get Kincaid on the field or not using Kincaid because we have Knox then the Bills screwed the pooch in April. I think Brandon Beane will be desperate not to have another season where his first round pick struggles to get on the field. When that happens back to back years eyes inevitably go to the General Manager's office. 

Thanks.  I agree that 12 usage will increase a ton I just hesitate to say it will be the majority or plurality (11 is my expectation).  Thus I think in this clear passing down situation it would be 11.  As I mentioned above I could get on board with the idea that Knox needs to help block before leaking out.  Guess the follow up is how much 12 do you think we run?  Greater than 40%?  

[Big Blitz]

Diggs

Davis 

Harty 

Knox 

 

As of right now, defenses would rather not have to deal with Harty and his speed vs a rookie TE.  

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

 

Thanks.  I agree that 12 usage will increase a ton I just hesitate to say it will be the majority or plurality (11 is my expectation).  Thus I think in this clear passing down situation it would be 11.  As I mentioned above I could get on board with the idea that Knox needs to help block before leaking out.  Guess the follow up is how much 12 do you think we run?  Greater than 40%?  

 

In terms of do I think Kincaid and Knox will both be out there more than 40%? Yes. I repeat though they will be in a traditional 11 formation. Diggs and Davis wide, Kincaid in the slot, Knox at tight end. I doubt Dalton Kincaid plays more than maximum 25% of his snaps as a tight end as a rookie, he just isn't that kind of player. And the Bills use a conventional tight end on about 85% of their plays. I expect 12 to be their base personnel. I just don't expect them to run a lot of traditional 12 formation stuff. They are going to play 3 wides, Kincaid is just going to be one of them. 

Edited July 25, 2023 by GunnerBill

[section122]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In terms of do I think Kincaid and Knox will both be out there more than 40%? Yes. I repeat though they will be in a traditional 11 formation. Diggs and Davis wide, Kincaid in the slot, Knox at tight end. I doubt Dalton Kincaid plays more than maximum 25% of his snaps as a tight end as a rookie, he just isn't that kind of player. And the Bills use a conventional tight end on about 85% of their plays. I expect 12 to be their base personnel. I just don't expect them to run a lot of traditional 12 formation stuff. They are going to play 3 wides, Kincaid is just going to be one of them. 

 

This is why I was so in love with the idea of drafting a te.  If Kincaid is being covered by a db and the other team is in nickel, he has an advantage blocking, and they can run the ball.  If they cover him with a lb, he has an advantage, and they can pass the ball.  This move really allows the offense to always be in an advantageous position.  Just spitballing but I love the idea of 2 wideouts on the same side, Knox inline, and Kincaid solo by himself.  That would really put stress on the defense and make them make some tough decisions.  It would also reveal man vs zone and dictate the coverage.  Just so much to do with 12 personnel creatively.

 

Now for a 4th and 8, I still love 12 personnel because of Josh's threat to run.  If nobody is open he can pick up 8 yards easily with some good blocking in front of him. 

One side

Diggs runs an in route

Knox chip and release into the flat where Diggs vacated

Other side:

Davis goes deep

Kincaid in the cleared out space underneath Davis out route at the sticks.

Josh tucks and runs if it presents itself.

 

First Down Bills.

[Patrick Duffy]

6 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Diggs

Davis 

Harty 

Knox 

 

As of right now, defenses would rather not have to deal with Harty and his speed vs a rookie TE.  

 

I'm not sure defenses know what they'd rather deal with right now. 

[YattaOkasan]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In terms of do I think Kincaid and Knox will both be out there more than 40%? Yes. I repeat though they will be in a traditional 11 formation. Diggs and Davis wide, Kincaid in the slot, Knox at tight end. I doubt Dalton Kincaid plays more than maximum 25% of his snaps as a tight end as a rookie, he just isn't that kind of player. And the Bills use a conventional tight end on about 85% of their plays. I expect 12 to be their base personnel. I just don't expect them to run a lot of traditional 12 formation stuff. They are going to play 3 wides, Kincaid is just going to be one of them. 

I agree it will look like more traditional 11 and we shouldnt expect Kincaid with his hand in the dirt.  Couldnt find 2022 data easily but 40% 12 personnel wouldve put us 2nd in that personnel grouping for 2021 (think league jumped in its usage though in 2022).  That would be a big jump considering we were second lowest usage last year from what I remember from podcasts.  Though I will cede that we had a fair bit of 21 personnel with Gilliam that can easily become 12. 

 

For the 25% of snaps as "tight end" (assume you just mean the "Y" tight end.  "F" is still a tight end to me too but different as you are alluding to) do you think thats with Knox on the field or off?  Sounds like we might see it really similar if you have Kincaid's snaps as 40% in 12 and 25% in 11 (I have it as 30% and 30%).  Appreciate you expanding on your thoughts here and just your general contributions to this community.    

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

I agree it will look like more traditional 11 and we shouldnt expect Kincaid with his hand in the dirt.  Couldnt find 2022 data easily but 40% 12 personnel wouldve put us 2nd in that personnel grouping for 2021 (think league jumped in its usage though in 2022).  That would be a big jump considering we were second lowest usage last year from what I remember from podcasts.  Though I will cede that we had a fair bit of 21 personnel with Gilliam that can easily become 12. 

 

For the 25% of snaps as "tight end" (assume you just mean the "Y" tight end.  "F" is still a tight end to me too but different as you are alluding to) do you think thats with Knox on the field or off?  Sounds like we might see it really similar if you have Kincaid's snaps as 40% in 12 and 25% in 11 (I have it as 30% and 30%).  Appreciate you expanding on your thoughts here and just your general contributions to this community.    

 

I suppose my question on the data is as above, how are sites recording it? Is ostensibly 12 personnel that then comes and lines up in 21 recorded as 12 or 21? 

 

Yea when I say tight end I mean a traditional Y on the end of the line of scrimmage. An F to my thought is more of an H-Back who is going to line up in the backfield, in the slot and occasionally inline - I'm not sure I really see Kincaid doing that either. I think he is going to play the vast majority of his snaps in the slot. 25% is my top end for him playing on the end of the line. I expect it will be a little below that. 

 

I think Knox will continue to be on the field 80% of the snaps or more. He averages about 85% the past two years when healthy. It might take a little dip, but I don't think it will dip much. 

[YattaOkasan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I suppose my question on the data is as above, how are sites recording it? Is ostensibly 12 personnel that then comes and lines up in 21 recorded as 12 or 21? 

 

Yea when I say tight end I mean a traditional Y on the end of the line of scrimmage. An F to my thought is more of an H-Back who is going to line up in the backfield, in the slot and occasionally inline - I'm not sure I really see Kincaid doing that either. I think he is going to play the vast majority of his snaps in the slot. 25% is my top end for him playing on the end of the line. I expect it will be a little below that. 

 

I think Knox will continue to be on the field 80% of the snaps or more. He averages about 85% the past two years when healthy. It might take a little dip, but I don't think it will dip much. 

I think its purely positional and not where they line up.  I thought Kincaid had some of the H-back type work at Utah.  I know Knox has done a fair bit of that too.  Agree Knox shouldnt see his snap count dip too much.  Still trying to settle out how much.