General feeling of fanbase, more likely... winning AFC Championship? or missing playoffs altogether?

[Chaos]

11 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

The odds of any team winning the SB are less than 20%.  On the other hand, one or two key injuries could make this a team around middle of the pack and in turn, easily miss the playoffs. 

The odds of a team winning the Super Bowl is 100%. One wins every year. 

[LabattBlue]

23 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The odds of a team winning the Super Bowl is 100%. One wins every year. 

Fuzzy math? 😂

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I'll go with 15% to win the AFCCG vs 10% chance of missing the playoffs. 

 

We should really only miss the playoffs if Allen gets injured. 

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, zow2 said:

There are some National talking heads that have the Bills on the decline...mainly due to other teams rising up in the AFC and Buffalo's tough schedule.  For whatever reason, while still respected, the Bills are not a sexy pick this season to do much of anything.

 

Does the fanbase feel they have a better chance at playing in the Super Bowl?  or not making the playoffs?   

 

I know most of us here are homers... and personally I'd be more surprised if they miss the playoffs.  The O looks to be really solid, the D is a question for me and how effectively McDermott tweaks it.

 

 

Absent an Allen injury, both are pretty unlikely. Probably each is below 20%. I'd pick missing the playoffs as more unlikely, though not by a lot.

 

Injuries happen, though. With that possibility included, missing the playoffs is more likely, according to both me and Vegas.

 

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

Sure, but the question is whether they’re more likely to be unseated in the division or unseat Kansas City, Cincinnati, and the rest of the field in the AFC.

 

According to Vegas, they’re about twice as likely to miss the playoffs.  They’re +500 to win the AFC, so they have about a 17% chance.  They’re +130 to win the East which gives them about a 43% chance of winning the division.  That puts them at about a 65% chance of making the playoffs as a division winner or wild card.  So there’s a 35% chance of missing the playoffs and a 17% chance of winning the AFC.

Its all supposition, mine is that the Bills win the division and maybe just maybe they win it all, no knows for sure, that’s why they play the games, 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, LabattBlue said:

Fuzzy math? 😂

I absolute guarantee a team will win the Super Bowl this year. 

[RiotAct]

12 hours ago, Airseven said:

To answer the question, the Bills are more likely missing the playoffs all together than winning the AFC championship. Making the Super Bowl is always a long shot (except for the Chiefs). Better question would’ve been missing the playoffs or reaching the AFC championship.

 

I’d be surprised if the Bills finish outside of 9-11 wins. Call it 10-7 and that’s no guarantee to win the division nor make the playoffs. Dolphins and Jets should both be near that same win range (I think Dolphins take the division).

yeah but missing the playoffs outright is also a long shot, when you have the talent up and down the roster that the Bills do.

[LabattBlue]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

I absolute guarantee a team will win the Super Bowl this year. 

You missed the point.  Even the team that is the SB favorite only has a less than 20% chance of actually winning it all. 

[eball]

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Kiss of  death.💀 

 

This actually made me laugh. 

[Kirby Jackson]

21 hours ago, zow2 said:

There are some National talking heads that have the Bills on the decline...mainly due to other teams rising up in the AFC and Buffalo's tough schedule.  For whatever reason, while still respected, the Bills are not a sexy pick this season to do much of anything.

 

Does the fanbase feel they have a better chance at playing in the Super Bowl?  or not making the playoffs?   

 

I know most of us here are homers... and personally I'd be more surprised if they miss the playoffs.  The O looks to be really solid, the D is a question for me and how effectively McDermott tweaks it.

It’s a fair question and I agree with you. The Bills are more likely to be in the Super Bowl than to miss the playoffs.

 

People have gone WAY too far on the Bills after a terrible playoff performance. The reality is that they won 8 in a row to that point while not playing great. They faced adversity at a level that no team had ever faced. They improved in the off-season. They lost 3 games by a total of 8 points. If they could have properly executed a kneel down vs. Minnesota they were 14-2 with home field throughout. They had the biggest point differential per game in the NFL.

 

The schedule is tougher and others have improved as well. I still expect the Bills to win the division 12-5(ish) and be much better in the playoffs. They didn’t play with that same swagger or sense of urgency last year. I expect that to return and they are an improved team. I’m betting an adjusted spread week 1 as the Jets are overrated and the Bills underrated. I’m laying double digits. 

[McBean]

22 hours ago, zow2 said:

There are some National talking heads that have the Bills on the decline...mainly due to other teams rising up in the AFC and Buffalo's tough schedule.  For whatever reason, while still respected, the Bills are not a sexy pick this season to do much of anything.

 

Does the fanbase feel they have a better chance at playing in the Super Bowl?  or not making the playoffs?   

 

I know most of us here are homers... and personally I'd be more surprised if they miss the playoffs.  The O looks to be really solid, the D is a question for me and how effectively McDermott tweaks it.

Missing playoffs.

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s a fair question and I agree with you. The Bills are more likely to be in the Super Bowl than to miss the playoffs.

 

People have gone WAY too far on the Bills after a terrible playoff performance. The reality is that they won 8 in a row to that point while not playing great. They faced adversity at a level that no team had ever faced. They improved in the off-season. They lost 3 games by a total of 8 points. If they could have properly executed a kneel down vs. Minnesota they were 14-2 with home field throughout. They had the biggest point differential per game in the NFL.

 

The schedule is tougher and others have improved as well. I still expect the Bills to win the division 12-5(ish) and be much better in the playoffs. They didn’t play with that same swagger or sense of urgency last year. I expect that to return and they are an improved team. I’m betting an adjusted spread week 1 as the Jets are overrated and the Bills underrated. I’m laying double digits. 

that urgency, that mojo, that sense of goign onto the field and hammer down was obvious against the Rams. they came to take lunch money of the defending super bowl champ without acknowledging anything, anyone on that team. they dominated.

 

they had the titans come to their house and they straight nut shot them quickly and walked over them the rest of the game.

 

got to miami and their high energy cockiness got put in check when they realized it's not going to be a cakewalk. i look at that as a big ***** in the armor and a shot where other teams saw that they can beat the Bills.

 

after that we pulled a victory from KC, got lucky against GB, got beat around by the Jets, had the Vikings expose how unbalanced and undercoached we were, and then a few weeks later had a miracle save us in Detroit.

 

last year was weird, but we were not as good as our schedule.

 

in 2023 we may not get beyond our record of 2022 but we will be a better team even if we do not play as well or win as many games.

[Mr. WEO]

missing the playoffs altogether?? 

 

come on with this...

[zow2]

16 hours ago, dpberr said:

The window is right now.  This is the year for the Bills.    Burn the boats behind you.

 

Could be.  I believe last season was year 2 of a legit 4 year Championship window.  So here we are entering year 3 of the 4 year window.  I still think they will have a great chance next season.  Let's do it this year though.   If it doesn't work out, i believe there will be wholesale changes..players, coaches after year 4. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

 

I think this team could finish 11-6, and yet by the end of the season be a better team than last year's 13-3 team.

 

I hope that makes some sense to the football fans out there.

 

I think 10-7 or 9-8 or worse would be due to something catastrophic, unforeseen and really not part of the discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

I look at this differently. While every Bills fan would obviously want to see us in the Super Bowl, I think the important question is between the next two:  Would it be better for their longer arc if they missed the playoffs altogether or made the playoffs but once again exited before the Championship Game? 

[pennstate10]

18 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

That's not what that means

Ah, this is a pedantic argument. That’s pretty close to what it means, and it represents the cumulative opinion of the worlds betting public as to the likelihood of the Bills winning the AFC. 
 

it’s the most objective way of obtaining an estimated probability of a future event. 
 

Or if you have a better metric, please let me know. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Teams with generational talents at qb don't miss the playoffs too often. 

Even in super competitive divisions. 

 

[Chaos]

Bills will almost certainly make the playoffs.  Not clear yet, what has changed to get them past the divisional round of the playoffs. 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 7/20/2023 at 5:38 AM, Gregg said:

I think they will make the playoffs and probably win the division. The schedule is tough for everybody in the AFCE. I will say 10-12 wins is the floor/ceiling. Will they make or win the Super Bowl. Who knows as anything can happen in the playoffs. It will be a challenge to get by KC/CIN. Hopefully they don't get hit to hard with the injury bug this year. As everyone knows injuries can ruin the season.

First and foremost injuries or a lack thereof will determine the success of 23.  The OL absolutely must step up, as does Dorsey.  If Von, Groot and Floyd all stay healthy,  the defense should hold up.  I have us at 12-5 and playing in the afccg.

Edited July 22, 2023 by LABILLBACKER