Bills Offense - Why it Frustrates- Why Total Productivity is Not Likely to Improve (there will Math)

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 Well, the red zone numbers offer at least a suggestion of the problem, which seems to be that the Bills aren't as effective finishers as they need to be to be a great team.  They need to finish better in the red zone, they need to finish games better, and they need to finish the season (i.e, the postseason) better.   They have to learn to seal the deal, as they say.   That's not Davis having a higher reception/target ratio, and it's not increasing the percentage of targets for the running backs.   It's getting into the right play in a given situation and executing it.  

 

 

 

If the focus is on the Bills in the red zone and their inability to finish drives the problem could be the lack of targets to the RB's in the red zone specifically. Examining KC and Buffalo, the Chiefs threw 41 TD passes and the Bills had 35 TD passes. The Chiefs had 12 go to RB's while the Bills had 4 go to RB's/FB. That ratio is off. If we multiply 12 by .85 the Bills should have thrown about 10 to the RB's instead of only the 4 they managed to get to them. Of course Allen is going to take some TD's off the board with his rushing, he had 7. Mahomes also had 4 himself so the difference between the two is 3. Subtract the difference from the 10 the Bills should have had and we should have expected about 7 TD's thrown to the RB's instead of the 4 we ended up with. 

 

Not a massive difference maybe but still an extra TD in the right game, inside the red zone against the Vikings, Jets or Dolphins could have really helped out the Bills record.

 

Also of note, surely one or two of the TD's may have come outside of the red zone for both the Chiefs and Bills. I have not dived into that data. 

[SoCal Deek]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's an interesting point to me, because it supports what I've been saying about Allen.   Who ran the offenses for the Patriots and the Saints?  Two of the best game managers of all time, Brady and Brees.  Why were they great game managers?  Because both were content to take what the game gave them.  They knew every time they got a completion for positive yardage, it was a win for the offense, so they took the highest percentage throw every time.   Often, the highest percentage throw was to the backs. 

 

The point is how many more yards or how many more points can be generated by throwing to the backs.   The point is minimizing incompletions, interceptions, and negative plays.  All-time career completion percentage list:

 

Burrow is 1, Brees is 2, Mahomes is 10, Brady is 21, Josh is 37.  Completing passes wins football games.  

Well, I agree whole-heartedly with your last sentence, but that doesn't mean that talking about improving the team's performance is irrelevant.  Whether O'Cyrus Torrence can start and play effectively can have a lot to do with whether the Bills win a Super Bowl, and talking about it is something that may interest fans here.  

 

What you're saying is, I think, unlike you and more like others who come into a thread and declare that the discussion is a waste of time.  If you think it's a waste of time, isn't the better solution to move on to another thread than to tell the rest of us we shouldn't talk about it?

I did not say you shouldn’t talk about it. 

[GoBills808]

25 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's an interesting point to me, because it supports what I've been saying about Allen.   Who ran the offenses for the Patriots and the Saints?  Two of the best game managers of all time, Brady and Brees.  Why were they great game managers?  Because both were content to take what the game gave them.  They knew every time they got a completion for positive yardage, it was a win for the offense, so they took the highest percentage throw every time.   Often, the highest percentage throw was to the backs. 

 

The point is how many more yards or how many more points can be generated by throwing to the backs.   The point is minimizing incompletions, interceptions, and negative plays.  All-time career completion percentage list:

 

Burrow is 1, Brees is 2, Mahomes is 10, Brady is 21, Josh is 37.  Completing passes wins football games.  

Well, I agree whole-heartedly with your last sentence, but that doesn't mean that talking about improving the team's performance is irrelevant.  Whether O'Cyrus Torrence can start and play effectively can have a lot to do with whether the Bills win a Super Bowl, and talking about it is something that may interest fans here.  

 

What you're saying is, I think, unlike you and more like others who come into a thread and declare that the discussion is a waste of time.  If you think it's a waste of time, isn't the better solution to move on to another thread than to tell the rest of us we shouldn't talk about it?

So I have no problem quoting you😂😂just to clarify- comp% is not the QB statistic most correlated to winning, that would be ANY/A looking at historical data and NY/A for predictive (future) purposes

 

Explained here, data is old but he has newer stuff that makes similar findings

 

https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know what this means

 

It means the Bills did have a problem moving the chains last year, situationally in specific game situations, and that looking at the overall statistic doesn't pull that out.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

It means the Bills did have a problem moving the chains last year, situationally in specific game situations, and that looking at the overall statistic doesn't pull that out.

What evidence of this do you have

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

What evidence of this do you have

 

Red zone efficiency, also some key end of half/end of game drives.  Has already been discussed in several threads.

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

Red zone efficiency, also some key end of half/end of game drives.  Has already been discussed in several threads.

 

 

Red zone efficiency is an area w room for improvement but overall they really did not have an issue moving the ball relative to league average and were in fact very good

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Red zone efficiency is an area w room for improvement but overall they really did not have an issue moving the ball relative to league average and were in fact very good

 

They did have trouble moving the ball though. In the red zone specifically. The question is why? 

 

One of the leading candidates is turnovers. Allen had three interceptions against the Vikings and Jets combined in the red zone. The same Allen that once had a pretty long streak of no red zone INTs to start his career. Furthermore, they had a turnover on downs at the goal line in the first Dolphins game. That's essentially four turnovers inside the red zone in their three regular season losses that were all losses by 3 points or less.

 

In their wins, off the top of my head Allen threw an INT in the red zone against the Lions and I think McKenzie's fumble against the Chiefs may have been inside the red zone. I'm sure there are several more I can't recall as well. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

They did have trouble moving the ball though. In the red zone specifically. The question is why? 

 

One of the leading candidates is turnovers. Allen had three interceptions against the Vikings and Jets combined in the red zone. The same Allen that once had a pretty long streak of no red zone INTs to start his career. Furthermore, they had a turnover on downs at the goal line in the first Dolphins game. That's essentially four turnovers inside the red zone in their three regular season losses that were all losses by 3 points or less.

 

In their wins, off the top of my head Allen threw an INT in the red zone against the Lions and I think McKenzie's fumble against the Chiefs may have been inside the red zone. I'm sure there are several more I can't recall as well. 

 

 

I guess I just don't agree that they struggled anywhere outside the red zone specifically and even there it wasn't really terrible just around average

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

15 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I guess I just don't agree that they struggled anywhere outside the red zone specifically and even there it wasn't really terrible just around average

 

 

 

They shouldn't be average though when they are ranked #2 in points per drive. They are the only top five team well outside the top 10. 

 

I'd suspect the turnovers inside the red zone alone are the difference but don't know. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

They shouldn't be average though when they are ranked #2 in points per drive. They are the only top five team well outside the top 10. 

 

I'd suspect the turnovers inside the red zone alone are the difference but don't know. 

Yes 

 

I think cleaning up redzone issues whatever they may be makes the offense league best hands down

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 7/15/2023 at 8:31 AM, Saint Doug said:

Statistically, the Bills offense does not need to improve. There are 2 things holding the team back. The inability of the defense to close out a game (see Vikings game) and offense taking games off (Bangles). These are the types of things that don’t show up in offensive season averages. 

 

The following players did not play for the Vikings game - Edmunds, White, Hyde, Poyer, Rousseau, and Elam.  They also... got the stop at the end of the game that should have won it if not for Allen screwing up the sneak.  They also got the stop in the end zone in OT.  

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes 

 

I think cleaning up redzone issues whatever they may be makes the offense league best hands down

 

Teams play zone against allen in the red zone, eyes on QB so its difficult to use the time you buy with your legs to do anything. It's also more difficult to scramble into the end zone in zone.  Running and PA would be one way to fix it

[Buffalo_Stampede]

On 7/15/2023 at 6:55 AM, Chaos said:

Josh should do this, Ken Dorsey is not good enough, we need more run balance,  blah de blah de blad de blah.  

In measuring an offense, the most important statisitics is points per drive.   In football drives alternate.  Each team gets the exact same number in a game within 1 drive. A drive that turns the balls over on downs on the opponents five yard line is exactly the same out come as a punt that goes out of bounds at the opponents five.   Emotionally fans want to hurl something at the tv in the first case, and want to talk about how great their special teams are in the second case.  Emotions aside, the drive ended in zero points with the ball on the opponents five yard line and now the other team has the ball. Exactly the same outcome.

 

In 2023 there were five offenses that were more than one standard deviation above the average from the rest of the NFL.  Three of the five made NFL championship games. Lions and Bills were the other two.  The Bills were second overall, trailing only the Chiefs.  But the frustration for fans comes from the fact that the Bills are 16th in redzone point production.  The Bills turn into an average NFL team in the redzone, it would appear.  While frustrating, the Bills offense was still the second most efficient in the NFL per drive in 2023.  If the Bills could improve the redzone offense to the Chiefs level, while maintaining the dynamic big play offense they have, they could be come the top offense in the NFL in 2023.  But staying in the elite group of being more than 1 STD deviation above the average is a more realistic goal (same for all the others already in that group).  There just is not much juice left to squeeze out in the TOTAL regular season points lemon.  I love the Bills off season moves on online and drafting Kincaid.  But the end regular season result (if as fans we are lucky) is that the Bills will achieve the same excellent results overall, just in a different way. 
 

In the first paragraph I set motions aside in terms of statistics.  However emotions do have impact in an individual football play or individual game.  If one combines the Red Zone averageness together with the Bills playoff averageness , one might surmise that there is a pattern of a problem to close.  The psychological inability to close is a real thing, and this is the main area the Bills need to work on.   If the Bills revamped offense, becomes top 5 in red zone offense in the regular season in 2023, it could mean that they have improved in the ability to close the deal, which might bode well for a deeper playoff run.

Break down the redzone stats further.  Did they improve? Maybe break down the season in quarters. 
 

I have stats that show them improved to an elite red zone offense the last 6 games of the year.

 

They ranked 23rd overall in redzone TD% after week 11. By the end of the season they climbed back up to 9th overall in redzone TD%. 
 

A lot of the time it’s about opponents also. They played below average redzone defenses those final 6 games, NE2x, Miami, Detroit, and Chicago. When their redzone offense was below average they faced 7 redzone defenses in the top half of the league. 

So I guess we could argue that they only improved because they played below average redzone defenses. I think it all averaged out over the season. I don’t believe it was all Dorsey though. A lot of the redzone mistake were on Josh Allen. He made some terrible decisions and poorly thrown balls.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

They shouldn't be average though when they are ranked #2 in points per drive. They are the only top five team well outside the top 10. 

 

Just for discussion's sake, I don't think this is true.   All offenses are good at some things, not so good at others.  The fact that they were #2 in points per drive and not so good in the red zone means that they were very good offensively outside the red zone.  

 

It's quite possible for a team just to be better when they're playing in the open field, where they can take advantage of the defense being spread out, but worse when the defense is compact.   Zones are compacted in the red zone, and more difficult to attack.  The right players to attack a zone from midfield may not be the right players to attack a tight zone in the red zone.   Josh's improvisational runs work much better when the defensive backfield gets stretched.   A guy like Beasley is an asset in the red zone, but less valuable in the open field.   In the red zone, defensive linemen know they probably aren't getting a sack (because the passing game is quick-release in that area), so they can play the run tougher.  If you have a mediocre offensive line in the run game, it therefore gets worse in the red zone, because the defense is keying on the run.   

 

It just doesn't follow that if the offense is good at midfield, it must be good in the red zone. 

[PBF81]

21 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Good question. 

 

Here are some raw numbers I looked up. The percentage in parentheses is the share percentage that went to the backs out of total number of targets divvied out by the offense.  Pretty much every team below was a top 10 offense (and top 5 in many cases) in both points and yards with a couple of exceptions (2019  Bills and 2022 Packers. And the 2021 Bengals were top 10 in points but not yards and same for the 2020 Saints and 2014 Patriots). 

 

Some things to note:

 

-Perhaps no team has been more consistent than the Chiefs. And they have maybe found that sweet spot of 18% targets to the backs.

 

-Arguably the two most dominant and consistent offenses of the last decade not including the Chiefs, are the Patriots and Saints. Both targeted the RB's far above average compared to the other teams listed here. 

 

-The Eagles and Rams have had success in four different seasons with four different QB's and targeting the RB's well below 20% of target share in each season. Even well below 18% in 3 out of the 4 seasons. They have found a slightly different recipe for success. 

 

- The Bills actually noticeably increased their target share to the backs last year at 20%. Mixed results. They had their best offensive finish since 2020 in terms of rankings. But their best offensive year to date saw the lowest target share to the Rb's at only 14%. 

 

 

2022 Bills 111 targets (20%)

2021 Bills 96 targets (15%)

2020 Bills 78 targets (14%)

2019 Bills 80 targets (16%)

 

2022 Chiefs 112 targets (18%) Super Bowl

2021 Chiefs 112 targets (18%)

2020 Chiefs 111 targets (18%) Super Bowl

2019 Chiefs 112 targets (20%) Super Bowl

2018 Chiefs  102 targets (18%)

 

2022 Packers 116 targets (21%)

2021 Packers 106 targets (19%)

2020 Packers 115 targets (23%)

 

 

2022 Bengals 133 targets (22%)

2021 Bengals 97 targets (18%) Super Bowl

 

2022 49ers 110 targets ( 21%)

2019 49ers 103 targets (22%) Super Bowl

 

2022 Eagles 61 targets (12%) Super Bowl

2017 Eagles 75 targets (14%) Super Bowl

 

2021 Rams 76 targets (13%) Super Bowl

2018 Rams 97 targets (18%) Super Bowl 

 

2020 Saints 137 targets (27%)

2019 Saints 154 targets (28%)

2018 Saints 144 targets (28%)

2017 Saints 179 targets (34%)

 

2018 Patriots 172 targets (31%) Super Bowl

2017 Patriots 158 targets (27%) Super Bowl

2016 Patriots 128 targets (23%) Super Bowl

2015 Patriots 143 targets (23%)

2014 Patriots 108 targets (18%) Super Bowl

 

Looking at the numbers above I would probably like to be in that 18% range at minimum. Bills were on the low end of the spectrum up until this past season. 

 

 

 

Without getting into the data in detail, a good reason for some of that was out lack of a reliable slot WR, which have the RBs more targets.

 

 

[Don Otreply]

22 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Better is relative.  

 

You said this, which is false.  The the defensive competition sucked as I just pointed out.  We'd be very lucky to have that level of defensive competition again in the next five seasons.  

 

 

 

 

I'm merely qualifying things.  I hate narratives because they form and then all rational thought seems to be discarded.  

 

 

If one was to be “specific” about what they are speaking of, then folk can retort in a more focused response. An example would be prefacing their comments with, “I’m referring to the post or regular season”  then we could all be more succinct, and productive in our posts. Sadly this is seldom done.

[Big Turk]

On 7/15/2023 at 12:32 PM, GoBills808 said:

I have hopes for this kid but in the redzone where space is compressed and being able to diagnose leverage quickly against NFL pros...that's not where I'm expecting him to really shine tbh

 

No reason he can't learn as he goes.  Might take a bit of time, but I see no reason why he couldn't excel at this. Maybe not this year but into year 2, 3 and beyond...

[PrimeTime101]

On 7/15/2023 at 7:17 AM, GunnerBill said:

Linked to the psychological closing issue is the number if games the Bills lose by 1 score where our offense has the ball last. All 3 defeats last year in the regular season fall into that category and over the last 2 years it has been a recurring issue. That shouldn't be happening with an elite QB and it may well be partly mental.

 

However, I think both - redzone and end of game - are the situations where the pressure rachets up on our pass protection and it invariably has failed.

Gunner. Normally I am with you on many things but lol come on. You can not make that bolded comment and then say, "I didn't say you did not blame Josh Allen"

 

maybe a clarification to this bolded statement?

[major]

On 7/15/2023 at 5:55 AM, Chaos said:

Josh should do this, Ken Dorsey is not good enough, we need more run balance,  blah de blah de blad de blah.  

In measuring an offense, the most important statisitics is points per drive.   In football drives alternate.  Each team gets the exact same number in a game within 1 drive. A drive that turns the balls over on downs on the opponents five yard line is exactly the same out come as a punt that goes out of bounds at the opponents five.   Emotionally fans want to hurl something at the tv in the first case, and want to talk about how great their special teams are in the second case.  Emotions aside, the drive ended in zero points with the ball on the opponents five yard line and now the other team has the ball. Exactly the same outcome.

 

In 2023 there were five offenses that were more than one standard deviation above the average from the rest of the NFL.  Three of the five made NFL championship games. Lions and Bills were the other two.  The Bills were second overall, trailing only the Chiefs.  But the frustration for fans comes from the fact that the Bills are 16th in redzone point production.  The Bills turn into an average NFL team in the redzone, it would appear.  While frustrating, the Bills offense was still the second most efficient in the NFL per drive in 2023.  If the Bills could improve the redzone offense to the Chiefs level, while maintaining the dynamic big play offense they have, they could be come the top offense in the NFL in 2023.  But staying in the elite group of being more than 1 STD deviation above the average is a more realistic goal (same for all the others already in that group).  There just is not much juice left to squeeze out in the TOTAL regular season points lemon.  I love the Bills off season moves on online and drafting Kincaid.  But the end regular season result (if as fans we are lucky) is that the Bills will achieve the same excellent results overall, just in a different way. 
 

In the first paragraph I set motions aside in terms of statistics.  However emotions do have impact in an individual football play or individual game.  If one combines the Red Zone averageness together with the Bills playoff averageness , one might surmise that there is a pattern of a problem to close.  The psychological inability to close is a real thing, and this is the main area the Bills need to work on.   If the Bills revamped offense, becomes top 5 in red zone offense in the regular season in 2023, it could mean that they have improved in the ability to close the deal, which might bode well for a deeper playoff run.

Moneyball- nfl style 

[PBF81]

9 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

If one was to be “specific” about what they are speaking of, then folk can retort in a more focused response. An example would be prefacing their comments with, “I’m referring to the post or regular season”  then we could all be more succinct, and productive in our posts. Sadly this is seldom done.

 

Even when it is, it's typically ignored.  

 

People have a tendency to generalize criticisms.  

 

This is going to be a very interesting season one way or another.