Bills Offense - Why it Frustrates- Why Total Productivity is Not Likely to Improve (there will Math)

[PBF81]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yeah again...all I said was 2022 offense was better than 2021. If you want to call that yodeling go right on ahead

 

Better is relative.  

 

You said this, which is false.  The the defensive competition sucked as I just pointed out.  We'd be very lucky to have that level of defensive competition again in the next five seasons.  

 

 

57 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

22 was better, and against better competition

 

Quote

there's overwhelming evidence that 2022 offense was superior to 2021

 

I'm merely qualifying things.  I hate narratives because they form and then all rational thought seems to be discarded.  

 

 

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know what this means

 

Every team has situations where a first down would mean points. The Bills were better at getting first downs than the vast majority of the league, so I don't see that as an issue. Likewise their third down conversion rate, which was league best in 2022, kind of invalidates the idea that they struggled w down/distance.

 

Philosophically I am generally in favor of deeper passes because they are +EV over shorter completions and run plays

 

The idea that the offense was some inefficient, inconsistent mess w Dorsey is a fabrication, and that's born out statistically

If there are two areas to address in the offense imo they are clearly 1 redzone efficiency and 2 Allen needs more attempts and gross overall pass yardage

 

outside that the rest is noise tbh

Man, I just do not agree.

 

Compare the Bills to, say, themselves.

 

Points per drive:

22 - 2.52

21 - 2.56

20 - 2.80

 

Percentage of drives ending in a score:

22- 45

21 - 45.2

20 - 49.4

 

Time per drive:

22 - 2:47

21 - 2:54

20 - 2:59

 

TO%

22 - 15.2

21 - 11.3

20 - 11.8

 

RZ%

22 - 60.3

21 - 62.4

20 - 61.8

 

Now, relative the league, they were of course not what I would consider a mess.  But to my eye, it felt significantly more laborious to score and maintain drives to years past. And the numbers do bear that out.

Edited July 16, 2023 by FireChans
fixed time per drive

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Better is relative.  

 

You said this, which is false.  The the defensive competition sucked as I just pointed out.  We'd be very lucky to have that level of defensive competition again in the next five seasons.  

 

 

 

In terms of YPG which is how defenses are generally ranked (and appropriately imo)

 

2021 average DEF rank faced by Bills: 17.76

2022 average DEF rank faced by Bills: 16.19 (higher ranked, more difficult defenses faced in 2022)

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Man, I just do not agree.

 

Compare the Bills to, say, themselves.

 

Points per drive:

22 - 2.52

21 - 2.56

20 - 2.80

 

Percentage of drives ending in a score:

22- 45

21 - 45.2

20 - 49.4

 

Time per drive:

22- 2:59

21 - 2:54

20 - 2:47

 

TO%

22 - 15.2

21 - 11.3

20 - 11.8

 

RZ%

22 - 60.3

21 - 62.4

20 - 61.8

 

Now, relative the league, they were of course not what I would consider a mess.  But to my eye, it felt significantly more laborious to score and maintain drives to years past. And the numbers do bear that out.

Can you check that points/drive figure for 2022 because I have a different one

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

In terms of YPG which is how defenses are generally ranked (and appropriately imo)

 

2021 average DEF rank faced by Bills: 17.76

2022 average DEF rank faced by Bills: 16.19 (higher ranked, more difficult defenses faced in 2022)

Can you check that points/drive figure for 2022 because I have a different one

Got them all from PFR

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2021.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2020.htm

 

Now to your point about SoS.  I do think that the numbers support that the 2021 Bills had an easier schedule. And that would also potentially explain the offense looking "easier."

 

But most of the numbers do suggest that the 2022 offense took a hit, efficiency-wise.

[PBF81]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

In terms of YPG which is how defenses are generally ranked (and appropriately imo)

 

2021 average DEF rank faced by Bills: 17.76

2022 average DEF rank faced by Bills: 16.19 (higher ranked, more difficult defenses faced in 2022)

Can you check that points/drive figure for 2022 because I have a different one

 

This is really important to you I see.    

 

I went by scoring passing defense since that's what our conversation was involved with implicitly.  

 

Anyway, who cares.   New season coming up.  Let's hope that Davis and McD pull their heads outta their arses and don't botch it for us in the playoffs again.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

This is really important to you I see.    

 

I went by scoring passing defense since that's what our conversation was involved with implicitly.  

 

Anyway, who cares.   New season coming up.  Let's hope that Davis and McD pull their heads outta their arses and don't botch it for us in the playoffs again.  

 

 

i guess its important, i mean its as important as anything i might else be scrolling through on a Sunday lol

 

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Got them all from PFR

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2021.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2020.htm

 

Now to your point about SoS.  I do think that the numbers support that the 2021 Bills had an easier schedule. And that would also potentially explain the offense looking "easier."

 

But most of the numbers do suggest that the 2022 offense took a hit, efficiency-wise.

i think one of us left in special teams and safety points lol

 

it does look that way on a per drive basis but i still maintain 2022 was more productive...maybe that a better word than 'better'

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Do good offenses target their RBs a lot tho? I mean is that an efficient use of a down 

 

 

 

Good question. 

 

Here are some raw numbers I looked up. The percentage in parentheses is the share percentage that went to the backs out of total number of targets divvied out by the offense.  Pretty much every team below was a top 10 offense (and top 5 in many cases) in both points and yards with a couple of exceptions (2019  Bills and 2022 Packers. And the 2021 Bengals were top 10 in points but not yards and same for the 2020 Saints and 2014 Patriots). 

 

Some things to note:

 

-Perhaps no team has been more consistent than the Chiefs. And they have maybe found that sweet spot of 18% targets to the backs.

 

-Arguably the two most dominant and consistent offenses of the last decade not including the Chiefs, are the Patriots and Saints. Both targeted the RB's far above average compared to the other teams listed here. 

 

-The Eagles and Rams have had success in four different seasons with four different QB's and targeting the RB's well below 20% of target share in each season. Even well below 18% in 3 out of the 4 seasons. They have found a slightly different recipe for success. 

 

- The Bills actually noticeably increased their target share to the backs last year at 20%. Mixed results. They had their best offensive finish since 2020 in terms of rankings. But their best offensive year to date saw the lowest target share to the Rb's at only 14%. 

 

 

2022 Bills 111 targets (20%)

2021 Bills 96 targets (15%)

2020 Bills 78 targets (14%)

2019 Bills 80 targets (16%)

 

2022 Chiefs 112 targets (18%) Super Bowl

2021 Chiefs 112 targets (18%)

2020 Chiefs 111 targets (18%) Super Bowl

2019 Chiefs 112 targets (20%) Super Bowl

2018 Chiefs  102 targets (18%)

 

2022 Packers 116 targets (21%)

2021 Packers 106 targets (19%)

2020 Packers 115 targets (23%)

 

 

2022 Bengals 133 targets (22%)

2021 Bengals 97 targets (18%) Super Bowl

 

2022 49ers 110 targets ( 21%)

2019 49ers 103 targets (22%) Super Bowl

 

2022 Eagles 61 targets (12%) Super Bowl

2017 Eagles 75 targets (14%) Super Bowl

 

2021 Rams 76 targets (13%) Super Bowl

2018 Rams 97 targets (18%) Super Bowl 

 

2020 Saints 137 targets (27%)

2019 Saints 154 targets (28%)

2018 Saints 144 targets (28%)

2017 Saints 179 targets (34%)

 

2018 Patriots 172 targets (31%) Super Bowl

2017 Patriots 158 targets (27%) Super Bowl

2016 Patriots 128 targets (23%) Super Bowl

2015 Patriots 143 targets (23%)

2014 Patriots 108 targets (18%) Super Bowl

 

Looking at the numbers above I would probably like to be in that 18% range at minimum. Bills were on the low end of the spectrum up until this past season. 

 

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

I re-watched 9 of the games from last season.  The offense looked more productive early in the season.  The offensive line had lots of different personnel groups through the season because of injuries.  As a group they rarely provided enough time in the pocket or any push in the running game.  Beane finally addressed the personnel problem by drafting Torrence and signing a couple free agents which look like upgrades to the group.  Neither Dawkins or Brown seem capable of consistently handling outside speed rushers.  If the Bills are going to beat teams in the playoffs this group needs to play better.  A few drops by receivers while a negative isn't the biggest problem.  Make some holes and gaps for the running backs and give Allen more time in the pocket.

Edited July 16, 2023 by All_Pro_Bills

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

i guess its important, i mean its as important as anything i might else be scrolling through on a Sunday lol

 

i think one of us left in special teams and safety points lol

 

it does look that way on a per drive basis but i still maintain 2022 was more productive...maybe that a better word than 'better'

I don't think PFR includes those in their points per drive number.  Looking at their PF total and adding ALL points from the 16 games does equal 455 (and I know Milano had a pick six in there somewhere).  But when you divide 455/# of drives, you get 2.66, which is much higher than their listed 2.52.

 

I don't know about productivity either man. 2021 scored more total points but they had an extra game too.

 

I think the offenses were different philosophically. Recency bias aside, Josh went deep A LOT more in 2022 compared to the other years. 

 

9.2 intended air yards in 2022 vs 8.2 in 21 and 8.3 in 20. 

 

That's gonna give you high variance when it comes to efficiency.

 

Now, maybe we went deep more because Diggs was being bracketed and Gabe can't run short routes, and we've come full circle as to how bad this team missed their prime Cole Beasley and how much we really needed an upgrade at WR.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

42 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Man, I just do not agree.

 

Compare the Bills to, say, themselves.

 

Points per drive:

22 - 2.52

21 - 2.56

20 - 2.80

 

Percentage of drives ending in a score:

22- 45

21 - 45.2

20 - 49.4

 

Time per drive:

22- 2:59

21 - 2:54

20 - 2:47

 

TO%

22 - 15.2

21 - 11.3

20 - 11.8

 

RZ%

22 - 60.3

21 - 62.4

20 - 61.8

 

Now, relative the league, they were of course not what I would consider a mess.  But to my eye, it felt significantly more laborious to score and maintain drives to years past. And the numbers do bear that out.

 

Longer time per drive would actually be a plus for the 2022 offense, right? Other than that, everything else looks like a small to tiny step back from '21.

 

You may have already covered it, but the difference in the Jets defense the Bills faced in '21 vs. '22 was night and day. I think the Jets D was dead last in '21 and top 5 in 2022. That alone may have been the reason the numbers took a step back. 

 

 

[PBF81]

15 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

i guess its important, i mean its as important as anything i might else be scrolling through on a Sunday lol

 

i think one of us left in special teams and safety points lol

 

it does look that way on a per drive basis but i still maintain 2022 was more productive...maybe that a better word than 'better'

 

🙂

 

As long as we are competence this season ...

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

 

I think the offenses were different philosophically. Recency bias aside, Josh went deep A LOT more in 2022 compared to the other years. 

 

 

 

To my surprise as well, the offense under Dorsey targeted the RB's a lot more than any of the previous offenses under Daboll. 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Longer time per drive would actually be a plus for the 2022 offense, right? Other than that, everything else looks like a small to tiny step back from '21.

 

You may have already covered it, but the difference in the Jets defense the Bills faced in '21 vs. '22 was night and day. I think the Jets D was dead last in '21 and top 5 in 2022. That alone may have been the reason the numbers took a step back. 

 

 

Yes lmao but I got them backwards:

 

Time per drive:

20 - 2:59

21 - 2:54

22 - 2:47

[SoCal Deek]

51 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Man, I just do not agree.

 

Compare the Bills to, say, themselves.

 

Points per drive:

22 - 2.52

21 - 2.56

20 - 2.80

 

Percentage of drives ending in a score:

22- 45

21 - 45.2

20 - 49.4

 

Time per drive:

22- 2:59

21 - 2:54

20 - 2:47

 

TO%

22 - 15.2

21 - 11.3

20 - 11.8

 

RZ%

22 - 60.3

21 - 62.4

20 - 61.8

 

Now, relative the league, they were of course not what I would consider a mess.  But to my eye, it felt significantly more laborious to score and maintain drives to years past. And the numbers do bear that out.

These three years are statistically identical with the exception of Turnover percentage….which I assume was mostly interceptions. 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

These three years are statistically identical with the exception of Turnover percentage….which I assume was mostly interceptions. 

How do you figure?

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

How do you figure?

Because the sample size just isn’t that large from season to season. This isn’t baseball. So that outlier of turnover percentage skews all of the others. 

[FireChans]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Because the sample size just isn’t that large from season to season. This isn’t baseball. So that outlier of turnover percentage skews all of the others. 

Sample size of what?  Total drives?

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Sample size of what?  Total drives?

Ugh….sample size of every one of these categories. For example, if you turn the ball over your points per drive is going to go down. It still counts as a drive but the turnover ends it with zero chance of scoring. 

[FireChans]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Ugh….sample size of every one of these categories. For example, if you turn the ball over your points per drive is going to go down. It still counts as a drive but the turnover ends it with zero chance of scoring. 

Exactly. That’s why turnovers are bad, and more turnovers makes a worse offense. 

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Exactly. That’s why turnovers are bad, and more turnovers makes a worse offense. 

So we agree. The only stat that mattered in your year by year comparison was the increase in turnovers. All of the others are skewed by that single one. 

Edited July 16, 2023 by SoCal Deek