Bills Offense - Why it Frustrates- Why Total Productivity is Not Likely to Improve (there will Math)

[BillsShredder83]

7 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Do me a favor, call up McClappy and try to teach him this very simple concept.

Actually, he has gotten BETTER with this sort of thing over TIME, but man, we have all paid for his learning curve.

 

And in other similar areas, he's still very much in the dark.  

 

Some would agree with this (including me) a LOT of others would NOT.

 

Very much a debatable point.

 

PS:  You are shoving a season worth of data into 1 stat; that's misleading with the Bills' offense last season IMO, in the sense that we can be such a volatile offense, and there can be such a diversity in opponent strength, that some games we pad the numbers, while in others we really struggle.

 

To boil it all down and say "we are no. 2" sounds amazing, but misses the point that we struggled MIGHTILY in some of the biggest games of the season, and were most certainly NOT functioning as the league's second best offense.

 

 

This! Soooo much this. There are a bunch that are incredibly naive to this around the board. I'm a glass half full guy around here, but this is spot on. 👌 

 

Poster boy for this is Gabe. Hovering over his 2022 stats looks like he had an okayish year. Look closer, there are 9 games dude was INVISIBLE!

 

take away his Pitt game and even his season totals start to smell. The reason I bring this game up is it was a huge Stat padder.

 

Take away his presence in that game, we still win by 2 scores. 

 

Desperately praying someone steps up and cements themselves as a true #2 option pass catcher(wr/te).  That doesn't even mean Gabe doesn't start at outside WR. That production can and probably will have to come from the slot.

 

Ideally, Shakir/Harty absolutely destroy in the slot, and pushes Kincaid to play off-line. Our best season was with Cole 2020. My favorite version of our offense. Dink n dunk chain moving offense.

 

It was consistent (we lived by boom/bust last year). Let the d catch their breath. More plays seemed to get the offense in a rhythm. Rarely went 3 and out. 

 

That was also Gabes most effective season. Drive killer as a #2 option. Serious weapon as a #3

 

 

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

This thread is specifically about the offense. Your post is off point. 

prior to 2022 we also failed in the playoffs.  I don’t know any Bills fans who are very worried about the 2023 regular season. 

Except for what I wrote about the Offense, 😁👍 try not to be “that guy” so frequently, nuthin but luv, 

Edited July 15, 2023 by Don Otreply

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I can only remember Detroit but feel free to share.

 

Chiefs, 2nd Dolphins game, Ravens.

 

Tied the Vikings game after fumbling in the end zone to give them the lead before losing in OT.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Chiefs, 2nd Dolphins game, Ravens.

 

Tied the Vikings game after fumbling in the end zone to give them the lead before losing in OT.

 

The Vikings game was on the offense. Blew the lead at the end then blew the chance to win it in OT.

 

But I agree the other 3 were games the O won with the ball at the end.

[Eastport bills]

The Bills offense was a tale of two different approaches that changed for the worse shortly after mid season. Dorsey, after having success with a passing attack that featured a heavy dose of Diggs , with Davis, Knox and Motor providing complimentary production. Josh’s runs for needed 1st downs and TDs rounded out a very successful  offense. Then, inexplicably, the emphasis was placed on a home run happy, vertical passing game, that didn’t fit Bills personnel. The running game became Josh-centric and when the playoffs started, it was obvious Diggs was used more as a decoy and Josh was asked to pull wins out of his rear end with an underachieving O-line. It’s clear with the additions this off-season, the Bills will try to take pressure off Josh with a conventional running attack and focusing on a pocket passing game. I see major improvement if this O- line comes together and Dorsey can balance this offense while keeping Diggs engaged . Better running, receivers and less exposure to injury for Josh equals a better offense.

[scuba guy]

So I been you all hitting on something but are not really getting the point.

 

The cheatiots played an up tempo game play lots of times beating the defense by hiking the ball fast and getting the first down which is really just sustaining drives throw to miget in the slot first down

  There success was get the first down.  But there were taking the clock down and using it effectively. 5 to 10 minute drive means 3 less for the other team.  So when Josh throws a deep ball and connects your all happy.  But sats slow the def is on the field know and can't get off the field for Josh to operate.  Well sustain drives 15 plays thr other teams d is tired.  So we have to many online sub them out on a play or 2 and push the other teams d back.  🤔  use more clock when you have the ball snap it with 2 seconds to go not 15.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Vikings game was on the offense. Blew the lead at the end then blew the chance to win it in OT.

 

But I agree the other 3 were games the O won with the ball at the end.

 

So, the Bills offense was 4-3 in closing out close games last year. That's actually not too bad. But 5-2 would have netted them the 1 seed and that is the problem. 

 

In the regular season I think the Chiefs were 2-2 in such games. Wins against the Chargers (game 2) and Texans and losses to the Colts and Bengals. 

 

I'm not sure the Bills actually have a mental problem here on the offensive side of the ball in these late game situations. But something to keep an eye on for next year. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

 I don’t know any Bills fans who are very worried about the 2023 regular season. 

 

I expect it to be a far tougher battle myself. The division is far from guaranteed and so by default playoffs are not a guarantee either. Haven't really felt that way since the 2019 season. 

[The Frankish Reich]

8 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Or the Bills could just run the goal line play where the TE sneaks out the opposite side of the formation only to be standing wide open in the back of the end zone…

I remember the legendary Lee Smith scoring on that play ...

[machine gun kelly]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

This thread is specifically about the offense. Your post is off point. 

prior to 2022 we also failed in the playoffs.  I don’t know any Bills fans who are very worried about the 2023 regular season. 

 

On defense in the 13 second game and ST.  Gabe Davis had 4 TD’s in that game and Josh did not choke.

 

 

[RyanC883]

10 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

I have a hard time putting it on Allen when he has repeatedly given us leads late in games that the D can't hold with under 2 minutes left. If anything, the defense lacks clutch ability, Allen certainly does not.

agreed.  I’d blame poor play calling in the red zone and the D. 

[Thurman#1]

21 hours ago, Chaos said:

In the first paragraph I set motions aside in terms of statistics.  However emotions do have impact in an individual football play or individual game.  If one combines the Red Zone averageness together with the Bills playoff averageness , one might surmise that there is a pattern of a problem to close.  The psychological inability to close is a real thing, and this is the main area the Bills need to work on.   If the Bills revamped offense, becomes top 5 in red zone offense in the regular season in 2023, it could mean that they have improved in the ability to close the deal, which might bode well for a deeper playoff run.

 

 

 

Statistics like this for one year have a very large element of randomness. Teams which repeat something like this year after year may legitimately have some kind of problem, perhaps a psychological inability of some kind.

 

The fact that in 2021 the Bills were #1 in the NFL in Red Zone scoring percentage tells you that the Bills are not a team with this kind of problem.

 

They are a team that had a bad year ... worse late, and it happened in a year when their all-world QB hurt his throwing arm and couldn't throw well short, which is the kind of throw you have to make in the red zone.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Statistics like this for one year have a very large element of randomness. Teams which repeat something like this year after year may legitimately have some kind of problem, perhaps a psychological inability of some kind.

 

The fact that in 2021 the Bills were #1 in the NFL in Red Zone scoring percentage tells you that the Bills are not a team with this kind of problem.

 

They are a team that had a bad year ... worse late, and it happened in a year when their all-world QB hurt his throwing arm and couldn't throw well short, which is the kind of throw you have to make in the red zone.

 

None of us know how much the Josh throwing arm injury affected him. But I recall my feeling when it happened and my immediate reaction was "that's the season." I kind of forgot about that because he played through it but when I reflect now maybe my first instinct was correct.

[Shaw66]

15 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

 

 

Poster boy for this is Gabe. Hovering over his 2022 stats looks like he had an okayish year. Look closer, there are 9 games dude was INVISIBLE!

 

 

 

 

Hover over Diggs's stats and he had 3-4 games where HE was invisible, and he's you're number 1.  (Either he had bad games, or he wasn't targeted enough, but if he wasn't targeted, there are reasons that happened.) The number 2 is always going to have games where the ball doesn't find him, as is true for the TE and the running backs, too.   

 

The endless discussion around here about the #2 receiver is all wishful thinking.   Yes, it would be great to have true #1 playing #2, but once you've written your QB a big check, the only way to get one of those guys is with luck or a high #1 pick.   Most teams have a #2 who gets fewer yards than Davis got last season, and who also have empty games like Davis.   Not saying Davis was a world beater or anything close last season, but Davis isn't a problem.  

[PBF81]

19 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

This! Soooo much this. There are a bunch that are incredibly naive to this around the board. I'm a glass half full guy around here, but this is spot on. 👌 

 

Poster boy for this is Gabe. Hovering over his 2022 stats looks like he had an okayish year. Look closer, there are 9 games dude was INVISIBLE!

 

take away his Pitt game and even his season totals start to smell. The reason I bring this game up is it was a huge Stat padder.

 

Take away his presence in that game, we still win by 2 scores. 

 

Desperately praying someone steps up and cements themselves as a true #2 option pass catcher(wr/te).  That doesn't even mean Gabe doesn't start at outside WR. That production can and probably will have to come from the slot.

 

Ideally, Shakir/Harty absolutely destroy in the slot, and pushes Kincaid to play off-line. Our best season was with Cole 2020. My favorite version of our offense. Dink n dunk chain moving offense.

 

It was consistent (we lived by boom/bust last year). Let the d catch their breath. More plays seemed to get the offense in a rhythm. Rarely went 3 and out. 

 

That was also Gabes most effective season. Drive killer as a #2 option. Serious weapon as a #3

 

Or problem has been that the playoffs however, and Diggs has been more invisible than Davis therein, especially considering his status.  

 

Regular season is not our issue.  

 

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by PBF81

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

   Not saying Davis was a world beater or anything close last season, but Davis isn't a problem.  

 100% agree. Our problems were largely the decrease in slot production and our continued dis-interest in getting the RB's involved in the passing game. 

 

I wouldn't even blame it on lack of production from the TE position because historically there are very few elite TE's and very few teams getting great productiuon from the position. That said, with Kincaid now on the team and Knox being at worst a top 15 TE and even top 5 by one or two metrics, we should be getting better production this year.

 

But yeah, Gabe isn't the problem. His target share was the issue. I suspect with a decreased target share but remaining one of our two starting outside receivers he will have much better production per target. 

[PBF81]

On 7/15/2023 at 8:50 AM, Nextmanup said:

Do me a favor, call up McClappy and try to teach him this very simple concept.

Actually, he has gotten BETTER with this sort of thing over TIME, but man, we have all paid for his learning curve.

 

And in other similar areas, he's still very much in the dark.  

 

Some would agree with this (including me) a LOT of others would NOT.

 

Very much a debatable point.

 

PS:  You are shoving a season worth of data into 1 stat; that's misleading with the Bills' offense last season IMO, in the sense that we can be such a volatile offense, and there can be such a diversity in opponent strength, that some games we pad the numbers, while in others we really struggle.

 

To boil it all down and say "we are no. 2" sounds amazing, but misses the point that we struggled MIGHTILY in some of the biggest games of the season, and were most certainly NOT functioning as the league's second best offense.

 

 

 

And those "biggest games" are in the playoffs, where we can't beat the best teams.  

 

Regular season is not a problem for us, there's also there.  

 

I'd rather go 10-7, get a wild card, then sweep the playoffs.  

 

 

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 100% agree. Our problems were largely the decrease in slot production and our continued dis-interest in getting the RB's involved in the passing game. 

 

I wouldn't even blame it on lack of production from the TE position because historically there are very few elite TE's and very few teams getting great productiuon from the position. That said, with Kincaid now on the team and Knox being at worst a top 15 TE and even top 5 by one or two metrics, we should be getting better production this year.

 

But yeah, Gabe isn't the problem. His target share was the issue. I suspect with a decreased target share but remaining one of our two starting outside receivers he will have much better production per target. 

 

Game also runs low-percentage routes and is far from being the most versatile WR in the league.  He's good at what he does.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 100% agree. Our problems were largely the decrease in slot production and our continued dis-interest in getting the RB's involved in the passing game. 

 

I wouldn't even blame it on lack of production from the TE position because historically there are very few elite TE's and very few teams getting great productiuon from the position. That said, with Kincaid now on the team and Knox being at worst a top 15 TE and even top 5 by one or two metrics, we should be getting better production this year.

 

But yeah, Gabe isn't the problem. His target share was the issue. I suspect with a decreased target share but remaining one of our two starting outside receivers he will have much better production per target. 

I'm amused that no matter how much I read here and think about the Bills offense, I always come back to Dorsey and Allen.  As you say here (agreeing with my brilliant comments!), the Bills have enough talent on offense.  It's about having a scheme and play calling that attacks the defenses properly (Dorsey) and executing that scheme with precision without going off script too much (Allen).  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm amused that no matter how much I read here and think about the Bills offense, I always come back to Dorsey and Allen.  As you say here (agreeing with my brilliant comments!), the Bills have enough talent on offense.  It's about having a scheme and play calling that attacks the defenses properly (Dorsey) and executing that scheme with precision without going off script too much (Allen).  

 

Yep. If the goal is to make the offense more efficient, is there a more efficient play than dumping a ball off to the RB in the flat or a short curl for a gain of 7 yards? A pass that has like a 90% completion rate. 

[Airseven]

On 7/15/2023 at 5:31 AM, Saint Doug said:

Statistically, the Bills offense does not need to improve. There are 2 things holding the team back. The inability of the defense to close out a game (see Vikings game) and offense taking games off (Bangles). These are the types of things that don’t show up in offensive season averages. 

Another issue is Allen imploding under pressure, whether by costly turnover, inaccurate throw, or bungled sneak. These sorts of analyses by Bills fans are problematic because they’re often built on the faulty premise that Allen is elite. Elite arm strength and athleticism, sure. But elite QB? No. His inconsistency is part of this problem.