Bills Offense - Why it Frustrates- Why Total Productivity is Not Likely to Improve (there will Math)

[PrimeTime101]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Enter Kincaid

when you said Enter Kincaid? I thought of this 

 

Enter The Dragon lol.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

OMG @Chaos is now an analytics nerd.

 

It's not just the fans who are impacted emotionally by failure..........turning the ball over at the 5 is NOT just the same as a long punt pinning the team at the 5.    It can have a very different impact depending on the other situations involved in the game.    Momentum is real.   We've recently been discussing the WC game against the Dolphins and there was a play late in the half where a wide open Khalil Shakir dropped a long bomb that would have set the Bills up for another score.   Not coming away with points on drives where you should have can be deflating to the team.   A punt followed and a minute later the whole tenor of the game had changed from a likely blowout to a dogfight.   And you can't tell me that a lack of energy/emotion wasn't a huge factor in the playoff loss a week later.  

 

As for there not being much room to improve statistically...........yeah there is plenty.   Josh Allen is or was at the peak of his all around abilities.   With the right cast around him there was no reason that the Bills couldn't have rode his generational skills to put up 38 points per game like the 2013 Broncos.   10 more points per game than what they produced last year is A LOT of room for improvement.   What the Chiefs produced in a transition year or what the Eagles produced with Jalen Hurts at QB( no Josh Allen) shouldn't be the standard.   The 2007 Patriots produced 37 points per game and the 2018 Chiefs with a first year starter in Mahomes produced 35 points per game.   These are the standards when you have a generational QB at the peak of his skills.

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I have hopes for this kid but in the redzone where space is compressed and being able to diagnose leverage quickly against NFL pros...that's not where I'm expecting him to really shine tbh

You’re certainly entitled to that opinion. 
 

he didn’t have any trouble reading leverage in college.  It was actually one of his strengths in setting up his RAC opportunities.  Plenty of which were in the red zone.
 

Huge, soft hands.  Contested catches with a large catch radius.  RAC. Great burst/release.  Attributes one looks for in the red zone.  
 

you could be right.  I think you’re wrong

 

its all on Dorsey to make it work imo.  

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You’re certainly entitled to that opinion. 
 

he didn’t have any trouble reading leverage in college.  It was actually one of his strengths in setting up his RAC opportunities.  Plenty of which were in the red zone.
 

Huge, soft hands.  Contested catches with a large catch radius.  RAC. Great burst/release.  Attributes one looks for in the red zone.  
 

you could be right.  I think you’re wrong

 

its all on Dorsey to make it work imo.  

I'm wrong plenty😂😂I'd love to be wrong on this

 

Improve redzone efficiency and this offense is best in the league w a bullet

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I have a hard time putting it on Allen when he has repeatedly given us leads late in games that the D can't hold with under 2 minutes left. If anything, the defense lacks clutch ability, Allen certainly does not.

 

I didn't put it on Allen.

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I didn't put it on Allen.

I would put the Vikings game on Allen.  

[GoBills808]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

I would put the Vikings game on Allen.  

I'd go 50/50 personally

 

That INT was brutal but the Jefferson catch over Lewis and and Cook TD were two inexcusable defensive lapses

 

I mean the Cook run was the second longest TD run in the league all season lol

[Shaw66]

45 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I have a hard time putting it on Allen when he has repeatedly given us leads late in games that the D can't hold with under 2 minutes left. If anything, the defense lacks clutch ability, Allen certainly does not.

Actually, I think Allen is maddeningly inconsistent in this regard.  Sometimes late in games he's let the team down playing for the big play instead of being surgical like Brady Rodgers Mahomes. 

[HappyDays]

Sometimes I think we get too lost in rankings. Everyone who watched the games last year knows the Bills offense had a ton of unforced errors. Clean up some of those errors and the productivity WILL improve. So saying productivity is not likely to improve is obviously false. It's not about being ranked 3rd or 1st across the whole season, it's about finding ways to win enough games to be the #1 seed and then advance in the playoffs. A lot of times the difference between the #1 seed and the #4 seed is a few critical moments sprinkled over just 2-3 games. Those are the moments where the Bills have fallen short and that isn't going to show up in any kind of statistical analysis.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I'd go 50/50 personally

 

That INT was brutal but the Jefferson catch over Lewis and and Cook TD were two inexcusable defensive lapses

 

I mean the Cook run was the second longest TD run in the league all season lol

The defense also stopped the Vikings at the goal line.  We wouldn’t remember the Jefferson catch if we could complete a simple QB/C exchange.

 

Then he forced the ball over the middle after double clutching.

 

He had two turnovers in the last 40 seconds of the game.  3 total.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

The defense also stopped the Vikings at the goal line.  We wouldn’t remember the Jefferson catch if we could complete a simple QB/C exchange.

 

Then he forced the ball over the middle after double clutching.

 

He had two turnovers in the last 40 seconds of the game.  3 total.

There's blame for sure

 

But even w the turnovers they put up 30 w Allen once again having to shoulder the load in its entirety...I mean he also rushed for 80+ yards lol

 

I think it's eminently fair to say everyone contributed to that loss

 

 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I would put the Vikings game on Allen.  

 

Yea true, Josh and Morse.

[Shaw66]

I'll say also that one reason I think the offense fails in the red zone is that the line hasn't been stong enough to dominate. They never give confidence that they'll win the battle to let the back score. They might have a killer instinct, but the other guys are better. 

[JaCrispy]

Our offense was always at its best when Beasley was on the team…

 

Teams couldn’t cover him and he was always that short safety valve for Josh, which helped to open the deep game…

 

Hopefully “Swole” Beasley can do the same…the good part is they both played basketball and know how to get open…👍

Edited July 15, 2023 by JaCrispy

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but the NFL is a parity league. There will be 5 or 6 games every year where it comes down to the end. There were years Brady had to pull late game heroics even against bad teams. Of course everyone knows the Bills made mistakes earlier in some of those losses. But they had the ball with a realistic chance to win in all 3 and didn't get it done. They have to be better in those sceanrios.

I agree with you and Chaos but personally I'd lean towards improving the end of game scenarios. We led the NFL in total differential.  We need a better "closer" mentality. We absolutely can't have a 16th ranked redzone and expect to go far in the playoffs. 

[LABILLBACKER]

19 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Our offense was always at its best when Beasley was on the team…

 

Teams couldn’t cover him and he was always that short safety valve for Josh, which helped to open the deep game…

 

Hopefully “Swole” Beasley can do the same…the good part is they both played basketball and know how to get open…👍

Watching Kincaid play in the Pac12, I have no doubts whatsoever that he'll move the chains the same way Beas did.  But once in the redzone as defenses compress, that's where we'll have to be "Andy Reid like" creative.

[Saint Doug]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

They do show up in the playoffs though.

They do, until they don’t. And those failures have defined each season. After that KC loss or the Bangles loss, any success that came beforehand no longer mattered. 

[Big Turk]

I don't really think it needs to improve much overall, I simply think that there are some improvements that need to come situationally and that Dorsey should be able to take the lessons he learned from being a first year OC and start implementing them.

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but the NFL is a parity league. There will be 5 or 6 games every year where it comes down to the end. There were years Brady had to pull late game heroics even against bad teams. Of course everyone knows the Bills made mistakes earlier in some of those losses. But they had the ball with a realistic chance to win in all 3 and didn't get it done. They have to be better in those sceanrios.

 

How many games last year did they win in those scenarios? I'll hang up and listen. Because it was more than 3.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Actually, I think Allen is maddeningly inconsistent in this regard.  Sometimes late in games he's let the team down playing for the big play instead of being surgical like Brady Rodgers Mahomes. 

It seems like the team puts Allen in this position far more often than other QBs.  He is ranked 13th ALL-TIME in fourth quarter comebacks, in only a little over five seasons as a starter. 

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Sometimes I think we get too lost in rankings. Everyone who watched the games last year knows the Bills offense had a ton of unforced errors. Clean up some of those errors and the productivity WILL improve. So saying productivity is not likely to improve is obviously false. It's not about being ranked 3rd or 1st across the whole season, it's about finding ways to win enough games to be the #1 seed and then advance in the playoffs. A lot of times the difference between the #1 seed and the #4 seed is a few critical moments sprinkled over just 2-3 games. Those are the moments where the Bills have fallen short and that isn't going to show up in any kind of statistical analysis.

And a high percentage of those unforced errors involved the left guard or right tackle; there were a few on Allen but most of those were on plays (or a play or two after a play) where the left guard or right tackle screwed up and scrambled his internal clock and patience.  Margin for error in this league is small.  Those two positions had an outside impact based on my untrained eyes.