Good Breakdown on Bills, KC, and Cinci moving forward

[newcam2012]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't even think it is true. Sal C likes to sell it as a reason on WGR as to why recent draft classes have struggled to make an impact "the Bills have a very good veteran team" but Greg Rousseau started week 1 as a rookie the year after we went to the AFCCG. They starter a 6th round rookie corner at the Superbowl Champions opening night last year. The Bills find a way to put young guys out there if they think they can handle it. They started Kaiir Elam over Dane Jackson in the playoffs. They did that because by that point in the year they felt he could do it. They started Spencer Brown as a rookie by about week 4 - he hasn't been good enough. 

 

The "oh the team is really good" doesn't really wash. None of our picks are sitting behind our best players waiting for an opportunity. If we'd picked a left tackle who was sitting behind Dion or a safety who was sitting behind Hyde and Poyer fair enough. If Kincaid ends up behind Knox this year I might question why they spent a 1st on a flex tight end if they were only going to use 1 and that guy was going to play inline... but I wouldn't question Kincaid because Knox is a really good player. 

 

AJ and Boogie have sat behind the likes of Shaq Lawson at times. Cook sat behind Singletary who they then let walk. They traded Moss away... the only guy who could legit claim he sat behind good players is Terrell Bernard... unfortunately when he got his opportunities he also looked worse than Dodson and Klein.

Very nice post and point Gunner. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I didn't find the article to be particularly useful. I think they needed to look at what players on each team would be looking for big contracts in the 2024 season. 

 

The only guy on the Bills is Gabe Davis. With how he played last year I don't think anyone on here would care if we let him walk. We're hardly in cap "jail" next season even though we have a lot of guys on big contracts. 

 

The Bengals are gonna have to give Burrows and Chase MASSIVE contracts. Even if they sign at a discount they will probably be the highest paid QB and WR when they sign their deals. 

 

I have to admit that the Chiefs have one of the best cap situations in the league going forward. MAYBE the lack of a big name WR and an aging Kelce will slow them down? I can dream anyway

[Dan]

8 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I didn't find the article to be particularly useful. I think they needed to look at what players on each team would be looking for big contracts in the 2024 season. 

 

The only guy on the Bills is Gabe Davis. With how he played last year I don't think anyone on here would care if we let him walk. We're hardly in cap "jail" next season even though we have a lot of guys on big contracts. 

 

The Bengals are gonna have to give Burrows and Chase MASSIVE contracts. Even if they sign at a discount they will probably be the highest paid QB and WR when they sign their deals. 

 

I have to admit that the Chiefs have one of the best cap situations in the league going forward. MAYBE the lack of a big name WR and an aging Kelce will slow them down? I can dream anyway

Rewatching all the games from last year, I will say 2 things.  
 

Gabe Davis is far better than posters here give him credit. He’s a solid WR that should absolutely remain a Bill. 
 

Singletary is a good RB!  The offense was immensely better when he was in.  He does not have breakaway speed. But the number of times he made a cut and got the needed yards cannot be underestimated.  I fear we’re going to miss him.

 

Anyone saying differently, I truly think isn’t actually watching the game but going on a preconceived notion of their play. 
 

 

[Chaos]

People who compare the Beane / McDermott regime against the Russ Brandon / Buffoon Coach regimes of the Bills past as the standard of comparison will always be happy. The Brandon / Buffoon era is among the worst of in the Super Bowl era.  

On the other hand, I don't understand how anyone can try to refute the fact that the Veach / Reid regime and Tobin / Taylor Regime have simply been more successful.  This is true in two regards, 1) more successful in actual results in the past several years and 2) better postioned from a cap perspective for the immediate future. 

 

Football has a lot random bounces and injuries, and the Bills could certainly find themselves champions in 2023.  But there is no real obvious reason as to why the Bills will become consistently better coached/managed than the Chiefs and Bengals in the future. 
 

 

[Billl]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't even think it is true. Sal C likes to sell it as a reason on WGR as to why recent draft classes have struggled to make an impact "the Bills have a very good veteran team" but Greg Rousseau started week 1 as a rookie the year after we went to the AFCCG. They starter a 6th round rookie corner at the Superbowl Champions opening night last year. The Bills find a way to put young guys out there if they think they can handle it. They started Kaiir Elam over Dane Jackson in the playoffs. They did that because by that point in the year they felt he could do it. They started Spencer Brown as a rookie by about week 4 - he hasn't been good enough. 

 

The "oh the team is really good" doesn't really wash. None of our picks are sitting behind our best players waiting for an opportunity. If we'd picked a left tackle who was sitting behind Dion or a safety who was sitting behind Hyde and Poyer fair enough. If Kincaid ends up behind Knox this year I might question why they spent a 1st on a flex tight end if they were only going to use 1 and that guy was going to play inline... but I wouldn't question Kincaid because Knox is a really good player. 

 

AJ and Boogie have sat behind the likes of Shaq Lawson at times. Cook sat behind Singletary who they then let walk. They traded Moss away... the only guy who could legit claim he sat behind good players is Terrell Bernard... unfortunately when he got his opportunities he also looked worse than Dodson and Klein.

I guess the shorter version of this is that you can draft BPA and you can draft for need, and both are valid strategies.  But if you draft for need, which Beane 10,000% does, you’d better get them on the field sooner rather than later because they’re, by definition, not blocked by an entrenched player.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Billl said:

I guess the shorter version of this is that you can draft BPA and you can draft for need, and both are valid strategies.  But if you draft for need, which Beane 10,000% does, you’d better get them on the field sooner rather than later because they’re, by definition, not blocked by an entrenched player.

 

Yea and where his drafting for need is most apparent is day 2 of the draft. I do think generally they stick to the board in round 1. The only player they have taken round 1 that wasn't by my board right there as BPA or close to it when they took him was Elam who I didn't have as a first rounder, but the Bills told us they did and the recent Athletic article revealed that Kansas City did too so could have been a case that I was just lower than the league on him.... and I can kind of see why that might be the case because he is a very high ceiling guy and the league tends to love that even when the floor is low which always makes me a bit more wary. Otherwise - Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, Kincaid.... they were all within the 2 or 3 best available.and in truth probably all guys who were expected to be gone by the spot where the Bills took them.

 

But day two... of the first 6 day two picks Beane made as Bills GM (ie. guys whose rookie deals have expired or who will after this season), 2 have walked at the end of their deal (Phillips and Singletary), 2 have been traded away before the end of it (Ford and Moss), 1 is going into contract year having never established himself as a starter (AJE) and then there is one success story who has established himself and signed an extension (Dawson Knox). And a whole lot of those picks had a need element to them. 

 

His record on day 1 is good. His record on day 3 remains very good in comparison to his peers. Where he has really struggled is day 2 and I think it is because that is where need has often driven decision making.

Edited July 15, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Dr. Who]

49 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea and where his drafting for need is most apparent is day 2 of the draft. I do think generally they stick to the board in round 1. The only player they have taken round 1 that wasn't by my board right there as BPA or close to it when they took him was Elam who I didn't have as a first rounder, but the Bills told us they did and the recent Athletic article revealed that Kansas City did too so could have been a case that I was just lower than the league on him.... and I can kind of see why that might be the case because he is a very high ceiling guy and the league tends to love that even when the floor is low which always makes me a bit more wary. Otherwise - Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, Kincaid.... they were all within the 2 or 3 best available.and in truth probably all guys who were expected to be gone by the spot where the Bills took them.

 

But day two... of the first 6 day two picks Beane made as Bills GM (ie. guys whose rookie deals have expired or who will after this season), 2 have walked at the end of their deal (Phillips and Singletary), 2 have been traded away before the end of it (Ford and Moss), 1 is going into contract year having never established himself as a starter (AJE) and then there is one success story who has established himself and signed an extension (Dawson Knox). And a whole lot of those picks had a need element to them. 

 

His record on day 1 is good. His record on day 3 remains very good in comparison to his peers. Where he has really struggled is day 2 and I think it is because that is where need has often driven decision making.

This year we took a massive G who doesn't at first blush appear to fit the blocking scheme, though I'm not sure they have a coherent scheme, and an undersized LB (both obvious need picks.) I wasn't thrilled with either in terms of immediate reaction, but later became more hopeful. Let's hope Beane got it right. 

[dave mcbride]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't even think it is true. Sal C likes to sell it as a reason on WGR as to why recent draft classes have struggled to make an impact "the Bills have a very good veteran team" but Greg Rousseau started week 1 as a rookie the year after we went to the AFCCG. They starter a 6th round rookie corner at the Superbowl Champions opening night last year. The Bills find a way to put young guys out there if they think they can handle it. They started Kaiir Elam over Dane Jackson in the playoffs. They did that because by that point in the year they felt he could do it. They started Spencer Brown as a rookie by about week 4 - he hasn't been good enough. 

 

The "oh the team is really good" doesn't really wash. None of our picks are sitting behind our best players waiting for an opportunity. If we'd picked a left tackle who was sitting behind Dion or a safety who was sitting behind Hyde and Poyer fair enough. If Kincaid ends up behind Knox this year I might question why they spent a 1st on a flex tight end if they were only going to use 1 and that guy was going to play inline... but I wouldn't question Kincaid because Knox is a really good player. 

 

AJ and Boogie have sat behind the likes of Shaq Lawson at times. Cook sat behind Singletary who they then let walk. They traded Moss away... the only guy who could legit claim he sat behind good players is Terrell Bernard... unfortunately when he got his opportunities he also looked worse than Dodson and Klein.

Good post. What do you think of this comment by Mahomes in the Netflix show? I trust Mahomes’ opinion about talent more than anyone on this board (no offense!):

 

‘After the Chiefs divisional round win against the Jaguars, Mahomes and company were awaiting the winner of the Bills vs. the Cincinnati Bengals divisional round clash.

“I think the Bengals are better, but I think with all those injuries on the o-line that the Bills have a chance,” he said.

Mahomes was asked who he would rather play between teams in the AFC Championship game.

“I mean, I think we match up better versus the Bills, but I want to play the Bengals. I mean, I just want to play them, we haven’t beaten them, and I’m tired of their talking.”’

 

I am curious about “match up” here. Is he referring to the Bills’ defensive scheme vs Cincy’s? Or simply Ll the injuries on D that the Bills had by that point?

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2023/07/patrick-mahomes-explains-who-he-wouldve-rather-faced-in-the-2023-nfl-playoffs-bills-or-bengals.html

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Good post. What do you think of this comment by Mahomes in the Netflix show? I trust Mahomes’ opinion about talent more than anyone on this board (no offense!):

 

‘After the Chiefs divisional round win against the Jaguars, Mahomes and company were awaiting the winner of the Bills vs. the Cincinnati Bengals divisional round clash.

“I think the Bengals are better, but I think with all those injuries on the o-line that the Bills have a chance,” he said.

Mahomes was asked who he would rather play between teams in the AFC Championship game.

“I mean, I think we match up better versus the Bills, but I want to play the Bengals. I mean, I just want to play them, we haven’t beaten them, and I’m tired of their talking.”’

 

I am curious about “match up” here. Is he referring to the Bills’ defensive scheme vs Cincy’s? Or simply Ll the injuries on D that the Bills had by that point?

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2023/07/patrick-mahomes-explains-who-he-wouldve-rather-faced-in-the-2023-nfl-playoffs-bills-or-bengals.html

 

I think he must mean scheme. I think particularly the Chiefs defense matches up better to our offense than they do to the Bengals offense. Our weakness at IOL the Benglas weakness more being at tackle and the Chiefs best guy being an interior guy. Plus Gay and Bolton probably felt like they had the advantage over our slot whereas not so much vs Boyd. And then the two outside guys can just out phsyical the Chiefs corners. Whereas our guys (particularly Stef) rely more on route running.

 

On defense I think the difference is less scheme and more just Mahomes has got his head around our D more than he has the Bengals. 

[Nextmanup]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

On defense I think the difference is less scheme and more just Mahomes has got his head around our D more than he has the Bengals. 

I'm quite sure this has nothing to do with anything.

 

 

[Ga boy]

22 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

We have fallen behind both teams, and might be the 7th best team in the AFC these days.

 

The league is far from static.  It's constantly changing.  Only Bills homers wouldn't acknowledge this.

 

For the 85th time this off-season, expect a regression year in 2023 from the Bills.

 

 

I hear ya Next but can’t give a thumbs up.  I say 11-6 wins the division.  A better run game will help in January.  We’ll play Cincy in AFCCG at Cincy and get sweet revenge.  Damar gets a pick.  Cook gets 100.  JA17 gets 250.  Von gets 2 sacks.  We win 34-20 then beat Detroit for the Lombardi 🦬

[GunnerBill]

53 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I'm quite sure this has nothing to do with anything.

 

 

You don't think Mahomes understands the Bills defense better than he understands the Cincy one? 

[Billl]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You don't think Mahomes understands the Bills defense better than he understands the Cincy one? 

With Von and Hyde out and Poyer and White reduced to shells of their former selves by the postseason, there was nobody on the Bills defense that Kansas City had to worry about.  When gameplanning, sometimes you have to look at the opponent’s strengths and work around them.  That wasn’t the case for the Bills.  Kansas City could have designed their offensive strategy based 100% on what the Chiefs do best and given zero consideration to the notion that a single player could dominate them and ruin the plan.  

 

Guys like Milano and Rousseau are good players, but they aren’t game wreckers like Von, and with a depleted secondary on top of Von’s absence, elite offenses could do whatever they wanted.

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

With Von and Hyde out and Poyer and White reduced to shells of their former selves by the postseason, there was nobody on the Bills defense that Kansas City had to worry about.  When gameplanning, sometimes you have to look at the opponent’s strengths and work around them.  That wasn’t the case for the Bills.  Kansas City could have designed their offensive strategy based 100% on what the Chiefs do best and given zero consideration to the notion that a single player could dominate them and ruin the plan.  

 

Guys like Milano and Rousseau are good players, but they aren’t game wreckers like Von, and with a depleted secondary on top of Von’s absence, elite offenses could do whatever they wanted.

 

I think Milano absolutely can be a game wrecker but not against KC. That is a schematic thing. But I agree down, Hyde, Von, one of Poyer's knees and the proper Tre White the Bills defense wasn't frightening anyone.

[Beck Water]

On 7/14/2023 at 1:13 AM, Zag20 said:

Lay off the OP, finding any content this time of year is valuable.

 

I understand your point, but the OP has a history here, which folks are reacting to

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Sal C will spin bull#### to support McBeane any way possible… how some think he gives some sort of great insight is beyond me. 

 

He does actually understand football and very occasionally it seeps out. But he is has been a massive homer since he got the WGR gig.

[Beck Water]

49 minutes ago, Billl said:

With Von and Hyde out and Poyer and White reduced to shells of their former selves by the postseason, there was nobody on the Bills defense that Kansas City had to worry about.  When gameplanning, sometimes you have to look at the opponent’s strengths and work around them.  That wasn’t the case for the Bills.  Kansas City could have designed their offensive strategy based 100% on what the Chiefs do best and given zero consideration to the notion that a single player could dominate them and ruin the plan.  

 

Guys like Milano and Rousseau are good players, but they aren’t game wreckers like Von, and with a depleted secondary on top of Von’s absence, elite offenses could do whatever they wanted.

 

Billll, with all respect, the Bills defense under McDermott is not and has never been based upon the "single player could dominate them and ruin the plan" model.

 

The Bills did a respectable job of containing KC during the 24-20 regular season Bills win in 2022 and in their 2021 38-20 win. 2022 was Kaiir Elam and Dane Jackson at CB and Damar Hamlin and Jordan Poyer at safety.  2021 was Jerry Hughes and rookie Greg Rousseau - no Von and AJ Klein in for Milano at linebacker.  In the last couple games, Milano's assignment has been to contain Mahomes and keep him from extending the play and escaping the backfield.  In 2022, he was scored as blitzing 3x and had 2 QB hits, and he may have "done his job".   As noted he didn't play in 2021.

 

I will say this - IMO Mahomes owned Levi Wallace soul, and that would be one reason Wallace was not picked up as a FA.

[Nephilim17]

After 2 seasons (starting the 2025 season) Tre, Steph and Von will likely be gone. How much dead cap will we have then? If not a lot, we'll be ok to reload.

 

We do need to draft a quality young WR but if Kincaid turns out, he may save a chunk as our top pass catcher (see Kelce's contract). Greg might fill Von's shoes, Kaiir hopefully turns into CB 1 material. 

 

Draft a good wide receiver and maybe a center and we should be all right...

 

[Billl]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Billll, with all respect, the Bills defense under McDermott is not and has never been based upon the "single player could dominate them and ruin the plan" model.

 

The Bills did a respectable job of containing KC during the 24-20 regular season Bills win in 2022 and in their 2021 38-20 win. 2022 was Kaiir Elam and Dane Jackson at CB and Damar Hamlin and Jordan Poyer at safety.  2021 was Jerry Hughes and rookie Greg Rousseau - no Von and AJ Klein in for Milano at linebacker.  In the last couple games, Milano's assignment has been to contain Mahomes and keep him from extending the play and escaping the backfield.  In 2022, he was scored as blitzing 3x and had 2 QB hits, and he may have "done his job".   As noted he didn't play in 2021.

 

I will say this - IMO Mahomes owned Levi Wallace soul, and that would be one reason Wallace was not picked up as a FA.

Not completely disagreeing here, but I think you’re taking way too much away from regular season games played in weeks 5 and 6 the past two seasons.  8 rookies played large roles for the Chiefs last season.  When a team is built that way, they’re going to struggle greatly early on.  If they’re coached and developed well, the team at the end of the season is going to be drastically improved by comparison.  

 

Veteran heavy teams like the Bills are sort of the opposite.  They enter the season essentially a finished product, but with older players you have a larger risk of them wearing down as the season progresses.  The Bills in week 1 were a superior team to what they were in the postseason.  The opposite is true of teams like Kansas City and Cincinnati.  McDermott’s biggest need for improvement IMO is to figure out how to get the team to peak at the right time.

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, Billl said:

Not completely disagreeing here, but I think you’re taking way too much away from regular season games played in weeks 5 and 6 the past two seasons.  8 rookies played large roles for the Chiefs last season.  When a team is built that way, they’re going to struggle greatly early on.  If they’re coached and developed well, the team at the end of the season is going to be drastically improved by comparison.  

 

Veteran heavy teams like the Bills are sort of the opposite.  They enter the season essentially a finished product, but with older players you have a larger risk of them wearing down as the season progresses.  The Bills in week 1 were a superior team to what they were in the postseason.  The opposite is true of teams like Kansas City and Cincinnati.  McDermott’s biggest need for improvement IMO is to figure out how to get the team to peak at the right time.

 

The only reason the Bills were a better team week 1 last year than week 18 was injuries. And none of the injuries we suffered were the "predictable vet slowing down type." Even the Von ACL all the science says the increased risk after a tear is minimal. It was just a bit of luck evening out IMO. Bills had pretty good injury fortune in 2020 and most of 2021. But since the Tre ACL they have hit a run of injuries. Luck always plays a part.