Good Breakdown on Bills, KC, and Cinci moving forward

[White Linen]

So we are signing Hopkins?

[TheWeatherMan]

5 minutes ago, White Linen said:

So we are signing Hopkins?

Possibly, you should start a thread about it.  

[thurst44]

10 hours ago, PBF81 said:

This is common sense.  You simply cannot keep whiffing on your Drafts for this very reason.  

 

At some point the piper shows up with his invoice.  It looks as if 2024 is when he'll be showing up bill in hand.  

 

Never fear however, Beane was just extended, so at least he'll be left to clean up his own mess and after his own draft failures.  

 

 

Actually 2024 is not remotely that year, but keep fanning flames. There's still a lot of re-working that can be done there as just three re-structures put them well under enough to extend Jones and Hyde into their void years or sign Rapp to a reasonable contract, extend other D-linemen. They won't be players in the FA market, but they will still have elite players at the key positions and plenty of role players. 2025 is the year that could be tricky. They can pretty safely get about 20m under cap with a roster starting with...

 

QB - Allen

RB - Cook, Hines

WR - Diggs, Shakir, Harty (ok, not worldbeating, but there's two drafts and Davis extension likely not impossible)

TE - Knox, Kincaid

OL - Dawkins, Torrance, Morse, McGovern, Brown 

DL - Oliver, Jones

DE - Miller, Rousseau

LB - Milano, D. Williams 

S - Hyde, Poyer

CB - White, Elam, T. Johnson

 

Sure Miller, Hyde, Poyer are getting up there, but none have shown decline (neither injury was decline)

 

Plus they are set up for a lot of those cutdown time trades Beane loves and could have anywhere from 10-13 draft picks in their second year. 2025 might have to be a bit of a reset year, but not a rebuild. They'll still likely have Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, White, Milano, Rousseau. If Miller can still play and Oliver takes a step forward, that's good, but if not, they save a lot of money by walking away. And there's about 30 players who we don't know about yet.

 

The article is actually a bit dumb as they make a deal about the 30m difference which in this context is piddling and much of it will be eaten up by Chris Jones. The Bengals have done a good job so far, but likely will have the same issues when Burrow is signed to a second contract that is going to be massively bigger than that of Allen or Mahomes. Also, it is being ridiculous acting as if there is no hope for a 2022 draft after one year where Elam had a game where he held great receivers to a 0.0 qbr and two very key INTs, Bedford showed promise to be good enough to even beat him out (people act like it was the other way around), Cook showed promise with a 5.7ypc rookie season, Shakir showed promise, etc. Yes, the Chiefs had a hell of rookie seasons, but a lot of that was by necessity. Further, the writer says Beane has to "draft better" after a 2023 draft in which the first two picks look positively brilliant (the second rounder was often mocked to them in the first and the first round pick was expected to go about 10-15 picks higher and has the potential to be a gamechanger for the offense. 

 

Also, you fail to mention that two of the teams that are worse off are the Jets and Dolphins. The former signed a 40-year-old QB who there's still a decent chance might not have it and likely is just a two-year rental and they're back at square one as their young roster hits second contracts, and Miami is still on Tua's first contract and while he looked good last year, he started to look like he had been figured out a bit before he was hurt and he sadly may be a concussion away from retirement.

 

Could things go South, sure, but there's a lot of reasons to believe this team is set up to succeed for years and as long as they have Allen, they are in the mix and he's still years away from 30. This window thing is and always has been nonsense.

 

Signing Hopkins to the contract he likes, however, would probably not be the greatest idea though.

Edited July 14, 2023 by thurst44

[White Linen]

10 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Possibly, you should start a thread about it.  

 

On it

[NewEra]

54 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

One of Higgins and chase is going to walk.  Wouldn't be shocked to see it be burrow tbh.  Their owner is going to struggle to pay them all that cash up front.  

You wouldn’t be shocked if Burrow left?  I would be

[sunshynman]

KC has a GM that made good draft picks and has managed salary cap well. Plus, Reid and Mahomes can attract players to sign with the team. They are in good shape. At the time Mahomes contract looked crazy. But it was a smart contract for KC and keeps them with an All Pro QB for most of his career. 

 

Bengals will have cap issues soon. Not sure how you pay both WR and give Burrow his contract. 

 

Bills are in ok shape. If drafting would have been a little better, we wouldn't look bad at all. But I think some of the DL picks will turn that corner this year. I see Groot and AJ turning into real contributors. Especially with McD calling the plays. Maybe half that list won't be on the team next year. I think Beane is doing the best he can at managing the cap. This offseason moves look to be better than the past few years. Let's win the Lombardi this year and we see a younger team next year. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by sunshynman

[pocoboy]

10 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Missing on draft picks certainly hurts you because it allows you to have quality players on the cheap. KC is a really good example of that with McDuffie and Pacheco. 

 

Not easy to tell if you've truly missed on picks when they don't see the field enough. Rookies really have to show early under McDermott or else he puts you at the end of the rotation, and unless you fight your way up the ladder it seems like you're relegated to 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart. And maybe that's the way it should be, but I do feel Reid throws guys to the wolves right away. Sometimes you need to get the young guys in there and feeling confidence before they can develop.

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by pocoboy

[Nextmanup]

11 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Not doomed but not ideal either. 

I thought it was pretty fair. The basic theme of the article is the Bills are paying older guys bigger money and they have some serious cap issues. The final paragraph or two are what really caught my attention. 

We have fallen behind both teams, and might be the 7th best team in the AFC these days.

 

The league is far from static.  It's constantly changing.  Only Bills homers wouldn't acknowledge this.

 

For the 85th time this off-season, expect a regression year in 2023 from the Bills.

 

 

[Ya Digg?]

49 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

We have fallen behind both teams, and might be the 7th best team in the AFC these days.

 

The league is far from static.  It's constantly changing.  Only Bills homers wouldn't acknowledge this.

 

For the 85th time this off-season, expect a regression year in 2023 from the Bills.

 

 

Not disputing or agreeing, just wondering how you came up with 7th

[Lost]

55 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

We have fallen behind both teams, and might be the 7th best team in the AFC these days.

 

The league is far from static.  It's constantly changing.  Only Bills homers wouldn't acknowledge this.

 

For the 85th time this off-season, expect a regression year in 2023 from the Bills.

 

 

I don't know if this would be a regression year.   The only thing worse about this season is the schedule itself and lower expectations.  On paper, the Bills look modestly better on offense.   Just getting rid of Roger Saffold alone makes them better.   

 

 

 

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, pocoboy said:

 

Not easy to tell if you've truly missed on picks when they don't see the field enough. Rookies really have to show early under McDermott or else he puts you at the end of the rotation, and unless you fight your way up the ladder it seems like you're relegated to 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart. And maybe that's the way it should be, but I do feel Reid throws guys to the wolves right away. Sometimes you need to get the young guys in there and feeling confidence before they can develop.

 

Great example was this past season where KC played almost all rookie db’s. They had their growing pains but when the playoffs came they were primed and seasoned. Wish McD would trust rookies that way. 

[Fleezoid]

Yep, who gives a crap about this year. As long as we have enough money next year. 

 

Some people are very prudent with their money and saved a ton of it. Problem is, they eat cheap food, never go on vacation or buy nice things.

 

It is possible to do both. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, thurst44 said:

Actually 2024 is not remotely that year, but keep fanning flames. There's still a lot of re-working that can be done there as just three re-structures put them well under enough to extend Jones and Hyde into their void years or sign Rapp to a reasonable contract, extend other D-linemen. They won't be players in the FA market, but they will still have elite players at the key positions and plenty of role players. 2025 is the year that could be tricky. They can pretty safely get about 20m under cap with a roster starting with...

 

QB - Allen

RB - Cook, Hines

WR - Diggs, Shakir, Harty (ok, not worldbeating, but there's two drafts and Davis extension likely not impossible)

TE - Knox, Kincaid

OL - Dawkins, Torrance, Morse, McGovern, Brown 

DL - Oliver, Jones

DE - Miller, Rousseau

LB - Milano, D. Williams 

S - Hyde, Poyer

CB - White, Elam, T. Johnson

 

Sure Miller, Hyde, Poyer are getting up there, but none have shown decline (neither injury was decline)

 

Plus they are set up for a lot of those cutdown time trades Beane loves and could have anywhere from 10-13 draft picks in their second year. 2025 might have to be a bit of a reset year, but not a rebuild. They'll still likely have Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, White, Milano, Rousseau. If Miller can still play and Oliver takes a step forward, that's good, but if not, they save a lot of money by walking away. And there's about 30 players who we don't know about yet.

 

The article is actually a bit dumb as they make a deal about the 30m difference which in this context is piddling and much of it will be eaten up by Chris Jones. The Bengals have done a good job so far, but likely will have the same issues when Burrow is signed to a second contract that is going to be massively bigger than that of Allen or Mahomes. Also, it is being ridiculous acting as if there is no hope for a 2022 draft after one year where Elam had a game where he held great receivers to a 0.0 qbr and two very key INTs, Bedford showed promise to be good enough to even beat him out (people act like it was the other way around), Cook showed promise with a 5.7ypc rookie season, Shakir showed promise, etc. Yes, the Chiefs had a hell of rookie seasons, but a lot of that was by necessity. Further, the writer says Beane has to "draft better" after a 2023 draft in which the first two picks look positively brilliant (the second rounder was often mocked to them in the first and the first round pick was expected to go about 10-15 picks higher and has the potential to be a gamechanger for the offense. 

 

Also, you fail to mention that two of the teams that are worse off are the Jets and Dolphins. The former signed a 40-year-old QB who there's still a decent chance might not have it and likely is just a two-year rental and they're back at square one as their young roster hits second contracts, and Miami is still on Tua's first contract and while he looked good last year, he started to look like he had been figured out a bit before he was hurt and he sadly may be a concussion away from retirement.

 

Could things go South, sure, but there's a lot of reasons to believe this team is set up to succeed for years and as long as they have Allen, they are in the mix and he's still years away from 30. This window thing is and always has been nonsense.

 

Signing Hopkins to the contract he likes, however, would probably not be the greatest idea though.

 

The other thing to keep in mind with the Bengals.  Once a month or so you see the joke post here on some thread "Ralph is Cheap"   Well if Ralph was cheap, where does that put Mike Brown.  Maybe a descendant of Scrooge himself??  Unless he's had a revaluation, things could quickly get dicey in Cinncy.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, pocoboy said:

 

Not easy to tell if you've truly missed on picks when they don't see the field enough. Rookies really have to show early under McDermott or else he puts you at the end of the rotation, and unless you fight your way up the ladder it seems like you're relegated to 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart. And maybe that's the way it should be, but I do feel Reid throws guys to the wolves right away. Sometimes you need to get the young guys in there and feeling confidence before they can develop.

 

 

I think that rookies not playing much may also be the result of fielding a very strong overall team.  Players like White, Dawkins, Edmunds, Knox, Oliver, Singletary, Brown, Milano to a lesser degree all did play a lot as rookies.  Now harder for them to find the field unless a clear opening ahead of them.  Groot did play right away as there was need there. 

 

This year Torrence will be an interesting one as likely has the talent to immediately start, but does have a fairly talented player ahead of him in Bates.   Even Kincaid, will he become the dominant used starter in the slot or have other good options in Shakir, Shefield.

[PrimeTime101]

Sheet2.html

14 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/07/13/bills-championship-window-salary-cap-crunch-outlook

How SI is doing it is kind of vague. 

looking at spotrac I am going to do the 2024 numbers and totals for top 10 paid. Soley based on Cap hit ok?

 

 

Total Cap hit the Bills pay  28,189,176 more than KC top 10. but I feel the Bills talent wise on the bottom end is better than their top 10 paid in 24.

 

In 2025 the Bills pay WAY more top 10 paid. It is not close.  What does All this tell you? WELL... 

This means KC has to pay out next year for top positions... like

DT Chris Jones Who is considered one of the best if not THE best DT in the league. I believe ESPN has him at 2?

CB L'Jarius Sneed WIDELY considered a runners up for top 10 CB

DE Mike Danna a top 100 player in the league. around 70

LB Drue Tranquill 95 tackles last year 5 sacs and an int will not come cheap  ---RFA next year at 27 in prime expected to get paid.

 

What BIG names do we have that become Free Agents in 2024? Gabe Davis? 

 

Now the even bigger picture.. Ready for this? Cap space for the Bills in 2024? -41 mil.  KC? + 

 

What the article does not say is how much we have already paid for our stars in the future. KC has free agents coming up in the next couple of years... big names.

 

I did not even compare numbers and check data on Cinci yet.. But this article leaves out an awful lot of info. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

You wouldn’t be shocked if Burrow left?  I would be

 

That signing bonus is going to be like 80 million dollars, i agree it would be shocking (probably not best choice of words on my previous post) - and the trade would be immense - but the bengals have been one of the notoriously cheap franchises in recent memory. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[billsbackto81]

I see they're really focusing on the age of certain players and I gotta say, WGAF! My older QB still throws for 4500 and rushes for over 700. My older WR still get over 100 rec at 1300 a clip. Sure the Knox and Oliver contracts may prove to be a burden in future years but as long as JA17 is healthy the window is always open.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Sheet2.html 3.92 kB · 1 download

How SI is doing it is kind of vague. 

looking at spotrac I am going to do the 2024 numbers and totals for top 10 paid. Soley based on Cap hit ok?

 

 

Total Cap hit the Bills pay  28,189,176 more than KC top 10. but I feel the Bills talent wise on the bottom end is better than their top 10 paid in 24.

 

In 2025 the Bills pay WAY more top 10 paid. It is not close.  What does All this tell you? WELL... 

This means KC has to pay out next year for top positions... like

DT Chris Jones Who is considered one of the best if not THE best DT in the league. I believe ESPN has him at 2?

CB L'Jarius Sneed WIDELY considered a runners up for top 10 CB

DE Mike Danna a top 100 player in the league. around 70

LB Drue Tranquill 95 tackles last year 5 sacs and an int will not come cheap  ---RFA next year at 27 in prime expected to get paid.

 

What BIG names do we have that become Free Agents in 2024? Gabe Davis? 

 

Now the even bigger picture.. Ready for this? Cap space for the Bills in 2024? -41 mil.  KC? + 

 

What the article does not say is how much we have already paid for our stars in the future. KC has free agents coming up in the next couple of years... big names.

 

I did not even compare numbers and check data on Cinci yet.. But this article leaves out an awful lot of info. 

 

Danna will be allowed to walk. He is a good rotational end. He isn't an every down player. I don't have him anywhere near top 100 status (and I like the guy, had a day 2 grade on him coming out). I imagine Tranquill will be a one year guy too. He is insurance for Gay and Bolton IMO.

 

Jones they will pay and Sneed is gonna get paid. The problem is he is really only a nickel in most schemes. He plays that hybrid role in the Spags scheme where Sneed will be in the slot one down, with McDuffie outside and the next down they switch. His value will be hard to peg. 

 

The Chiefs didn't draft well in 2018 and 2019 it was part of what allowed the Bills to catch up to them. But they have crushed 2020, 2021 and 2022 at the same time as the Bills drafting has tailed off a bit.

[Billl]

40 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I think that rookies not playing much may also be the result of fielding a very strong overall team.  Players like White, Dawkins, Edmunds, Knox, Oliver, Singletary, Brown, Milano to a lesser degree all did play a lot as rookies.  Now harder for them to find the field unless a clear opening ahead of them.  Groot did play right away as there was need there. 

 

This year Torrence will be an interesting one as likely has the talent to immediately start, but does have a fairly talented player ahead of him in Bates.   Even Kincaid, will he become the dominant used starter in the slot or have other good options in Shakir, Shefield.

There's some merit to this, but it's a reflection of a poor strategy.  At some point, you've got to be winning to let high priced veterans go and trust your draft picks.  Rookie contracts are incredibly valuable assets. 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

There's some merit to this, but it's a reflection of a poor strategy.  At some point, you've got to be winning to let high priced veterans go and trust your draft picks.  Rookie contracts are incredibly valuable assets. 

 

I don't even think it is true. Sal C likes to sell it as a reason on WGR as to why recent draft classes have struggled to make an impact "the Bills have a very good veteran team" but Greg Rousseau started week 1 as a rookie the year after we went to the AFCCG. They starter a 6th round rookie corner at the Superbowl Champions opening night last year. The Bills find a way to put young guys out there if they think they can handle it. They started Kaiir Elam over Dane Jackson in the playoffs. They did that because by that point in the year they felt he could do it. They started Spencer Brown as a rookie by about week 4 - he hasn't been good enough. 

 

The "oh the team is really good" doesn't really wash. None of our picks are sitting behind our best players waiting for an opportunity. If we'd picked a left tackle who was sitting behind Dion or a safety who was sitting behind Hyde and Poyer fair enough. If Kincaid ends up behind Knox this year I might question why they spent a 1st on a flex tight end if they were only going to use 1 and that guy was going to play inline... but I wouldn't question Kincaid because Knox is a really good player. 

 

AJ and Boogie have sat behind the likes of Shaq Lawson at times. Cook sat behind Singletary who they then let walk. They traded Moss away... the only guy who could legit claim he sat behind good players is Terrell Bernard... unfortunately when he got his opportunities he also looked worse than Dodson and Klein.

Edited July 14, 2023 by GunnerBill