Interesting stats with Mahomes KC Air yards going down but they keep winning games.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Magox said:

 

That very well could happen, but it beats letting them dink and dunk it down the field all day long.

“Play the deep ball and see if Mahomes can beat you by dinking and dunking, it beats getting burned deep,”

 

- NFL DC’s circa 2020

[LABILLBACKER]

At this rate Mahomes will be -1.2 by 2024.  Seriously, this just validates the benefits of checkdowns.  Brady with smart route designs made a career of it and so has Mahomes.  Take note Ken & Josh.

[Mikie2times]

If you look at Air Yards per attempt Josh’s 2021 year was the lowest total he ever posted. 2022 being much more like 2019. I think this is the key for him and Daboll did an excellent job coaching Josh on this. Josh is a different player when he takes the check downs. Our offense becomes consistent. He avoids turnovers. We can still air it out as we did in 2021 late in the year, but we built the foundation late in the year around shorter completions, which then more naturally opened up the longer stuff. 2022 it was just all air it out and it plays right into Josh’s weakness. I recall one poster mentioning how Miami was basically begging us to throw deep in the playoff game. Which was true. What that resulted in was a ton of offensive output, but a lot of longer developing plays and turnover risk. If you’re any DC in the NFL right now why wouldn’t you beg Buffalo to go over the top? 

[Solomon Grundy]

4 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-world-reacts-to-insane-patrick-mahomes-news/ar-AA1dqfgG?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=69f63cacedec44a9a8d804c227d1159e&ei=12

 

 

i.e, more checkdowns

4 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Just saw this. That's why I truly feel Josh will have more accolades when all said and done. Allen can be just as effective underneath I feel and is better deep and intermediate and running 

 

It was so frustrating seeing Mahomes dump it off to his RBs or WR screens go for 100s of yards a game. 

 

I've been saying constantly, if Allen takes the underneath stuff more often he'd be unstoppable. I'm sure it's play calling too but just look at NE playoff game in 21. Allen was going underneath, ran the ball very well w Josh and RBs. Opens up PA and deep ball and they had absolutely no idea how to play us cause as a defender you're on skates all day. 

Remember the season all the pundits were saying Mahomes lost it with all the TOs he was committing. He simply learned to take the checkdowns instead of forcing the long ball. 

[Solomon Grundy]

4 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I know the Bills saw some of this too...but teams just played a ton of cover 2 shell VS the Chiefs this past year...dropped 7 or 8 into coverage.  ....Andy Ried really preferes that the ball go to a player who is open and alot of the play calls are designed to get a guy open.  KC doens't throw "contested catch" type stuff if they can help it.  Never run that corner fad in the red zone for example... part of that is because KC lacks a jump ball type WR....and part of it is KC likes to use speed and if teams give you short...KC takes short.

But takes the short stuff to players with playmaking ability, i.e., Toney/MacKinnon

Edited July 4, 2023 by Solomon Grundy

[HappyDays]

I think a lot of posts in this thread are missing what the initial stat is saying. It's just about his TD passes. 4.5 yards on average per TD pass is indeed very low. That isn't really saying anything about Mahomes though, it's more a function of how good Andy Reid is at designing pass plays inside the 5 yard line. All those 2 yard shovel passes to Kelce at the goal line really bring the average down.

 

In terms of average air yards per attempt for all passes, 2021 and 2022 Mahomes were nearly identical at 7.3 and 7.2 respectively.

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by HappyDays

[Gugny]

Mahomes learned that taking what the defense gives you instead of swinging for the fences on every pass play actually works. 
 

Josh needs to learn this. 

[Mr. WEO]

That team isn’t going anywhere…

[Mango]

Touchdowns don’t count for extra points because you threw the ball farther. 
 

Keeping the sticks moving consistently means you’re generally winning pretty consistently.

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

He is taking the underneath pass option more and more, and still winning, cough cough Dorsey cough cough Josh, it’s a winning recipe , that cheating SOB Brady did it to perfection, did I say it’s s winning recipe…, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Thats because his underneath guys actually get YAC.  Ours don't.  They get the ball and they are tackled or they fall down.

[Old Coot]

The decline in Mahomes' TD pass yardage probably means that other teams adjusted to the Chiefs' deep passing game to take it away. That became easier in 2022 since Tyreek was not there.

 

If you play a 2 high safety shell with a light box (as the Bills have done for the past several seasons) to take away the deep ball, the Chiefs have adjusted. Their running game was better in 2022 especially against a light box and they likely threw more short to medium passes.

 

As others have said, teams adjusted to Josh by taking away the deep ball. At the beginning of last year Josh was taking the short to medium throws. At some point he started playing hero ball and taking deep shots. Any thoughts on why he changed?

 

In any event, I hope and expect that Josh will learn patience and stick with it. If we can improve our running game that will help open things up for run-pass options and play action passes.

[Don Otreply]

20 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Thats because his underneath guys actually get YAC.  Ours don't.  They get the ball and they are tackled or they fall down.

And that, imo is about how our past and current OC’s operated their  offensive scheme, neither have been particularly talented in creating that YAC outcome with the personnel available while with the Bills, I truly hope for a schematic change on offense so as to make this a thing of the past. 🤞

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Thats because his underneath guys actually get YAC.  Ours don't.  They get the ball and they are tackled or they fall down.

Unfortunately this is very true. We still struggle with YAC on shorter high % routes.

[nucci]

air yards is not a real stat

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

air yards is not a real stat

It’s measured consistently on pro football reference. A person isn’t required to determine anything. They just use the play by play log. It’s as good a stat as anything else depending on what you want to know

[nucci]

14 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

It’s measured consistently on pro football reference. A person isn’t required to determine anything. They just use the play by play log. It’s as good a stat as anything else depending on what you want to know

A lot of useless stats are measured .So an end of the half hail mary type pass goes 60 yds and incomplete and player get credited for 60 air yards.  How is that relevant to anything?

[The Frankish Reich]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

“Play the deep ball and see if Mahomes can beat you by dinking and dunking, it beats getting burned deep,”

 

- NFL DC’s circa 2020

And c. 2023 too. See Frazier, Leslie.

[Dopey]

😂😂

He averaged 4.5 yds on td passes, not overall, guys. There is no checking down on a 4.5 yd td. pass. Josh Isn’t going deep and avoiding check down passes when he’s that close to the end zone. Thank you Happy Days for trying to explain this to a lot of posters here. Geez. 

9 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Thats because his underneath guys actually get YAC.  Ours don't.  They get the ball and they are tackled or they fall down.

YAC on a 4.5 yd pass to the end zone!?!

😂😂

[Never NEVER Give-up]

19 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-world-reacts-to-insane-patrick-mahomes-news/ar-AA1dqfgG?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=69f63cacedec44a9a8d804c227d1159e&ei=12

 

 

Reminds me of Dan Marino - he padded his stats by ALWAYS passing down by the goal line.

[sunshynman]

10 hours ago, Old Coot said:

The decline in Mahomes' TD pass yardage probably means that other teams adjusted to the Chiefs' deep passing game to take it away. That became easier in 2022 since Tyreek was not there.

 

If you play a 2 high safety shell with a light box (as the Bills have done for the past several seasons) to take away the deep ball, the Chiefs have adjusted. Their running game was better in 2022 especially against a light box and they likely threw more short to medium passes.

 

As others have said, teams adjusted to Josh by taking away the deep ball. At the beginning of last year Josh was taking the short to medium throws. At some point he started playing hero ball and taking deep shots. Any thoughts on why he changed?

 

In any event, I hope and expect that Josh will learn patience and stick with it. If we can improve our running game that will help open things up for run-pass options and play action passes.

 

It was the elbow injury. It hurt more and he was less accurate on short throws with the injury. Therefore, he wanted to throw the long ball. We couldn't stick to an effective running game (I blame Dorsey for that), to help alleviate the issue. And Josh had no time to sit back and wait for an open WR. It seemed like nearly every play someone was coming full speed at Josh off the snap.