Playoff offense is just as much an issue as defense

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

 

What? He had 352 yards and 3TDs in that game (should have been 4, the overruled TD was dumb) not to mention there were a few drops on deep passes. He easily could have thrown for 400 yards and 4TDs

Based on EPA that takes into account things like completion % and turnovers, not just yards, that was our second worst offensive game all year. Given our turnovers allowed a Skyler Thompson led Dolphins team to be winning in the 2nd half, I wouldn't exactly applaud this performance. Josh didn't take anything underneath. Efficiency in moving the ball was non existent. It was backyard football and nearly got us beat by an inferior opponent. We saw what happened with a a more worthy team a week later.   

[ngbills]

Since 2019 Bills compared to Chiefs

 

Offense

Bills O has scored under 20 3 times in 8 games (37.5%)

Chiefs O has scored under 20 1 time in 12 games (8%)

 

Defense

Bills D held the opponent under 20 2 times in 8 games (25%)

Chiefs O held the opponent under 20 1 time in 12 games (8%)

 

You need to score to win in the playoffs.  

 

 

[Mikie2times]

15 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

as if the Bengals defense hasn't scored a TD against that same team I guess, and that game wasn't even played in a hurricane

 

we average 4+ more points on offense in the postseason than the Bengals, which is enormous. The difference is their defense doesn't throw up all over itself in the playoffs. Your thesis needs work

Your understanding of scoring averages and how football games are won and lost needs some work. You don't win games based on averages, not unless those averages are created with consistency. Who cares if we have higher high's if we have lower low's and the format is single elimination? I did you a favor and bolded the losses. When the Chiefs, Bills, or KC has scored 20 or less in the playoffs the record is 1-6. KC and the Chiefs have as many combined as we do alone and two of three for those  came in the Super Bowl. 

 

What is the likelihood we will score 20 or less next year given the data you're looking at? 

 

Bengals has scored 24, 27, 20, 26, 19, 27, 20

Bills has scored 34, 10, 47, 36,  27, 17, 24, 19

KC has scored 51, 35, 31, 22, 38, 9, 42, 42, 24, 27, 23, 28

Edited June 30, 2023 by Mikie2times

[GoBills808]

is this the part where we start making arbitrary figures to bolster our argument

 

cool because Chiefs have scored more than 45 points once (8.3%) while the Bills have also scored more than 45 once (14.3%)

[billsfan89]

The offense in the playoffs wasn't an issue in 2021 when the team was blazing. So taking a look at 2020 and 2022 is probably the fairest comparison if you want to analyze playoff offenses sputtering. 

 

2020 the offense was solid in the wild card game against the Colts, a bit inconsistent but the Colts had a good defense. The divisional round game was an odd game due to the weather but the offense largely did not do much in bad weather other than not make critical mistakes. Odd game against one of the top 3 defenses in the league. The AFCCG against KC was where the offense really "failed". But that game was also really really weird circumstance-wise. The WR corps was entering the game banged up. Every WR on the roster except Mac and Diggs was suffering from a nagging injury. Beasley was playing on a broken leg suffered towards the end of the season, Brown reaggravated an ankle injury and from what I remember Gabe got hurt against the Ravens. Then early on in the game against KC Diggs got banged up. KC was able to fully blanket an injured WR corps and that was a wrap on the game. 

 

2022 the offense beat up on the Fins even if they played sloppy and allowed them to hang in the game with turnovers. But then the offense completely flattened out against the Bengals. The O-line which was a mess all season completely derailed the offense and the lack of a consistent WR2/3 was also very very apparent (although I think the O-line was a worse issue). The Bills also were mentally gassed from a hellish season so a "flat" game was not completely unexpected but still frustrating. 

 

So really since 2020 in three seasons, you are looking at two playoff offense failures. One attributed to a WR corps that was almost entirely injured and another attributed to the bizarre circumstances of 2022's season. I would like to see if the success of the 2021 playoff offense can be replicated given the improved offensive line and throwing targets for Josh. It is no coincidence that the best stretch of O-line play the Bills have had in the 2020-2022 stretch coincided with the Bills offense performing at an all world level. 

 

In 2021 the Bills kicked D.Williams inside to right guard and he was really good while a rookie Spencer Brown was solid at RT, they then kicked Bates into guard full time and he was solid at the other guard spot while Mitch and Dawkins were their usual solid selves. That Oline was really good. Hopefully Torrence is an impact rookie, McGovern a solid guard, Mitch and Dawkins have a good season again and Brown returns to form. That could be a big difference come playoff time. 

[Saxum]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

It's all offense; people talking about defense are older guys who grew up in the '50s, '60s, '70s and '80s hearing "Defense wins championships" and they aren't smart enough to adapt their thinking to a changing world.

 

What you are saying is you were on show "Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader?"

I did not know it was revived this decade.

[Virgil]

Honestly, I can’t blame the offense too much for the Bengals game.  Yes, they got off slow, but when the defense showed again that they weren’t going to show up for a playoff game…I might lose some momentum too.  
 

The offense has showed up for so many playoff games only to be let down by the defense.  Outside of the Ravens playoff win, when has the defense done anything in the playoffs for us?   
 

It’s a lot of pressure to expect the offense to score every drive because the defense can’t stop anyone 

[Thurman#1]

Both, same as always.

 

And I at least am not surprised to hear people put down the playoff offense last year. We scored 10 points against Cincy. Is there really anybody out there who didn't notice the offense was a lot worse than the D against the Bungles.

 

It ain't the defense. And it ain't the offense.

 

It's the Buffalo Bills.

[HaldimandBills]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

It's all offense; people talking about defense are older guys who grew up in the '50s, '60s, '70s and '80s hearing "Defense wins championships" and they aren't smart enough to adapt their thinking to a changing world.

 

 

Here good Sirs is what happens when your knowledge comes froming playing Madden and watch NBA analysts discussing football.

 

Bengals made it to the Superbowl on the back of their defense. Not offense. Burrow threw for 1 td in each game vs. the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs that run. It was their defense that beat the Chiefs not their offense.

 

Patriots best offensive team ever lost in the Superbowl and they beat the Seahawks on a defensive play in the Superbowl. Beat the Rams due to their defense. Rams beat the Bengals due to their defense. Bucs destroyed the Chiefs with their defense. Steelers and Ravens won their Superbowls on the back of their defense. Colts only Superbowl is when the dline actually consistently came home on the pass rush. Saints defense tortured Manning in their Superbowl win. Broncos won because of their defense not Manning who could only throw the ball 10 yards.

 

So basically the Chiefs are the only outlier and even they see a massive uptick in their defensive capability in the playoffs vs. their regular season performance.

 

 

[HaldimandBills]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I'm highlighting one game to show how our perceptions of what is and isn't an issue have become very clouded. It didn't end up being 16 seconds for the Patriots because they overcame it. It didn't end up being a defensive issue for KC because they overcame it the next year. They both did this on offense. Nearly every team has to overcome on offense in the playoffs as we nearly did in 2021. But the reality is, we have not performed even close to that level before or since and if you look at our broader playoff performances on offense they lack the quality and consistency that we tend to see in the regular season. 

 

Based on 2021 and the poor defensive performance and how we lost 13 seconds, I think most people around here think the offense is fine come playoff time. It hasn't been. This would be much more obvious to most if the defense wasn't horrendous in our losses. But the fact is even if it wasn't, we still likely lose all three games. We see 20 to 1 ratios identifying playoff defense as the main problem. Playoff offense is just as big of a problem. The consistency isn't there and it goes past just 1 game involving KC and the Patriots to know you need to have elite consistency, clutch play, and the ability to score a ton of points if you want to make the Super Bowl. 

No, we just need to perform more consistently. It's all phases, people are just obsessed with defense.

The issue I have with this is the Bengals playoff win over the Chiefs was due to their defense fighting and keeping the game close while the offense struggled. Our defense doesn't even give our offense a chance to get in sync.

 

Same with the Chiefs Superbowl victory over the Niners. The Chiefs defense fought tooth and nail to keep the Chiefs in it as their offense was out of sorts before exploding in the 4th quarter. 

 

The Bills defense has flat out just bombed out of the gate too many times. Now the offense is pressing and losing advantages that come with playing in a tight game. 

 

2020 Texans loss was because the Bills sat back in soft zone and let Watson get in a groove and light them up.

 

2021 Colts and Chiefs had a field day with the defense. Allen played like a man on fire and single handedly beat the Colts. Chiefs were just too strong that season. 

- Ravens was a defensive win. The only defensive win we have seen during the Allen era. Thats unacceptable given our  defensive coaching and cap space spent on the defensive side of the ball. 

 

2022. Allen came to play and the defense predictably torched a rookie Mac Jones and floundered vs. Mahomes. How does it not frustrate Bills fans seeing the Jaguars and Bengals slow down Mahomes with inferior talent? 

 

2023. Bills were just off. Don't need to get into the entire roster being out of sorts.

[Thurman#1]

21 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Honestly, I can’t blame the offense too much for the Bengals game.  Yes, they got off slow, but when the defense showed again that they weren’t going to show up for a playoff game…I might lose some momentum too.  
 

The offense has showed up for so many playoff games only to be let down by the defense.  Outside of the Ravens playoff win, when has the defense done anything in the playoffs for us?   
 

It’s a lot of pressure to expect the offense to score every drive because the defense can’t stop anyone 

 

 

When? The '20 Colts game, when they strangled the Colts offense on that final drive when it was do or die. And the Ravens the same year. And the '21 Pats game. 

 

And forgiving the offense because it's OK to give up when it looks like the defense is having a poor game while you the offense are having an absolutely wretched game makes zero sense at all. Please. Makes just as much sense to say that you "might lose some momentum too," when you yourself realized your own unit couldn't score that day.

 

And against Cincy, the D held the Bengals to their average score, while our offense scored ten points less than the Bengals D usually allowed. The offense was MORE responsible for that loss than the D. Though neither side played well. That was a team loss but the offense was significantly worse.

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

36 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Honestly, I can’t blame the offense too much for the Bengals game.  Yes, they got off slow, but when the defense showed again that they weren’t going to show up for a playoff game…I might lose some momentum too.  
 

The offense has showed up for so many playoff games only to be let down by the defense.  Outside of the Ravens playoff win, when has the defense done anything in the playoffs for us?   
 

It’s a lot of pressure to expect the offense to score every drive because the defense can’t stop anyone 

 

Probably also was almost like protection didn't exist for Josh. 

[Mikie2times]

6 minutes ago, HaldimandBills said:

The issue I have with this is the Bengals playoff win over the Chiefs was due to their defense fighting and keeping the game close while the offense struggled. Our defense doesn't even give our offense a chance to get in sync.

 

Same with the Chiefs Superbowl victory over the Niners. The Chiefs defense fought tooth and nail to keep the Chiefs in it as their offense was out of sorts before exploding in the 4th quarter. 

 

The Bills defense has flat out just bombed out of the gate too many times. Now the offense is pressing and losing advantages that come with playing in a tight game. 

 

2020 Texans loss was because the Bills sat back in soft zone and let Watson get in a groove and light them up.

 

2021 Colts and Chiefs had a field day with the defense. Allen played like a man on fire and single handedly beat the Colts. Chiefs were just too strong that season. 

- Ravens was a defensive win. The only defensive win we have seen during the Allen era. Thats unacceptable given our  defensive coaching and cap space spent on the defensive side of the ball. 

 

2022. Allen came to play and the defense predictably torched a rookie Mac Jones and floundered vs. Mahomes. How does it not frustrate Bills fans seeing the Jaguars and Bengals slow down Mahomes with inferior talent? 

 

2023. Bills were just off. Don't need to get into the entire roster being out of sorts.

I respect the post, I just don’t like comparing us to the Bengals all that much. I sort of got pulled in that direction to defend the thread. We are built like KC in just about every way outside of defensive philosophy. The Bengals are just the perfect image of consistent. They keep every playoff game close (besides ours). Usually scoring in the 20’s, not more, usually allowing around the same. Burrow doesn’t put up huge numbers, but he is always coming up with a timely play or drive. We are so opposite of this. All feast or famine on both sides of the ball. 

[Dopey]

56 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Honestly, I can’t blame the offense too much for the Bengals game.  Yes, they got off slow, but when the defense showed again that they weren’t going to show up for a playoff game…I might lose some momentum too.  
 

The offense has showed up for so many playoff games only to be let down by the defense.  Outside of the Ravens playoff win, when has the defense done anything in the playoffs for us?   
 

It’s a lot of pressure to expect the offense to score every drive because the defense can’t stop anyone 

2017 Jax- 10 points given up and we still lost. 

2019 Houston -7 sacks, 22 points given up in an overtime game is not letting the team down. The offense hurt that effort more than the defense. 

2020 Ravens- you’ve acknowledged 
2021 NE - no need to go over 

2022 Dolphins if you dig deeper into how they managed 31 points, yep our offense and ST put our defense in some bad situations. Really bad. The defense balled out that game. Too bad  the offense crapped the bed. Thank you defense. 
 

25 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

When? The '20 Colts game, when they strangled the Colts offense on that final drive when it was do or die. And the Ravens the same year. And the '21 Pats game. 

 

And forgiving the offense because it's OK to give up when it looks like the defense is having a poor game while you the offense are having an absolutely wretched game makes zero sense at all. Please. Makes just as much sense to say that you "might lose some momentum too," when you yourself realized your own unit couldn't score that day.

 

And against Cincy, the D held the Bengals to their average score, while our offense scored ten points less than the Bengals D usually allowed. The offense was MORE responsible for that loss than the D. Though neither side played well. That was a team loss but the offense was significantly worse.

 

 

Right!?!

[Robert Paulson]

5 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Replaying the 4th quarter of the Patriots AFC Championship game at Arrowhead, it became clear just how much the final outcome can cloud the perceptions of how it occurred.

 

In that AFC Championship game, final score, 37-31 ending in a New England win. New England scored to take a 3 point lead with 39 seconds left. It took Mahomes and the Chiefs 16 seconds to get into position to kick the game tying FG from inside the 25. New England would win the toss and score on it's first drive to win the game in OT. No talk of 16 seconds, they won the game. In the process of winning the game, despite having seen Brady do this for the better part of the last 20 years it was impossible to not see the level of precision it took to sustain drives. He was completing passes in the 4th quarter we aren't even attempting. KC had DB's painted on NE WR's and one of the best pass rushes in the league in KC that year had no ability at touch Brady with how quick he was getting the ball out. The level of efficiency on offense that it took to win that game was mind boggling.  

 

KC won the Super Bowl the next year and they didn't do so because they suddenly figured out a way to solve those defensive issues. They did so because Mahomes led an offense as clutch and consistent as any QB we have seen since Brady.

 

Over in our neck of the woods, Josh and the offenses performance in 13 seconds and multiple defensive meltdowns have left us putting the failure of this team squarely on the defenses back. Hogwash. The only year we showed in our losses that we could sustain drives offensively was 2021. We were not able to come back like the Chiefs and execute at that level before or since. To win the Super Bowl you need that level of performance. Ask Philadelphia if you think otherwise.

 

2019 =Our offense scored 19 points in a loss to Houston including 6 points in the second half

2020 =Our offense puts up 9 points in the final 4 minutes to make a 38-15 score look respectable, but anybody watching that game knew we sputtered 

2022 =Our offense puts up 10 points against the Bengals at home

 

We can talk about the defense until we are blue in the face. We will have to perform at a 2021 level for an entire playoff run on offense to have any chance at this. In doing so, we need to be able to efficiently march the ball down field. Something we really haven't done since the back half of 2021.  The defense has sucked in the playoffs, but the offense has as well. If we only allow 13 to the Bengals and they win 13-10, this is completely different perception. But that's all this is right now. A perception that the defense is preventing us from going further. At the end of the day the offense will be what decides this. 

 

 

you are cherry picking.

 

2019 was growing and learning.

 

2020 i don't even remember but i think the defense sucked and we had no healthy wide receivers.

 

2021 it was the Frazier D that was the problem. he should have been fired before he got on the plane and actually should have been fired in 2019.

 

last year the team was just spent emotionally, mentally, physically from the effed up season they had.

 

THE

 

 

OFFENSE

 

 

IS

 

 

ELITE

 

 

WHEN

 

 

 

JOSH

 

 

 

IS 

 

 

 

HEALTHY

[Taro Nimbus]

So.........we should fire the coach?

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Lol strangled the Colts offense on the final drive… The Colts offense was barely stopped that day… until they(mostly Rivers) shot themselves in the foot. The defense was poor that afternoon, but I expect nothing less from one of your takes.

 

The McFrazier defense has had a history of getting absolutely destroyed once it takes on an very good passing QB in the playoffs…. This with a massive investment in just about every defensive position…. Hopefully that changes with McD taking over the play calling. 

 

Just to jump in here briefly to say that's certainly the way I remember it happened, now jumping out

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

you are cherry picking.

 

2019 was growing and learning.

 

2020 i don't even remember but i think the defense sucked and we had no healthy wide receivers.

 

2021 it was the Frazier D that was the problem. he should have been fired before he got on the plane and actually should have been fired in 2019.

 

last year the team was just spent emotionally, mentally, physically from the effed up season they had.

 

THE

 

 

OFFENSE

 

 

IS

 

 

ELITE

 

 

WHEN

 

 

 

JOSH

 

 

 

IS 

 

 

 

HEALTHY

Our entire fan base holds its hat on 2021 and I’m cherry picking? 

[Mikie2times]

16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Lol strangled the Colts offense on the final drive… The Colts offense was barely stopped that day… until they(mostly Rivers) shot themselves in the foot. The defense was poor that afternoon, but I expect nothing less from one of your takes.

 

The McFrazier defense has had a history of getting absolutely destroyed once it takes on an very good passing QB in the playoffs…. This with a massive investment in just about every defensive position…. Hopefully that changes with McD taking over the play calling. 

I think the offensive played fine in the Chargers game. Another defensively challenged game. We got the late stop, but the Chargers set playoff records for offensive output in a loss. This thread isn’t to say one vs the other. It’s more about one overshadowing the other. The defensive can all of a sudden hold teams in the low 20’s and that won’t be enough if history is any indication. That’s a problem. New year. But I don’t think we can just say as a fan base, offense good, defense bad. It’s not that simple. 

[HaldimandBills]

37 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I respect the post, I just don’t like comparing us to the Bengals all that much. I sort of got pulled in that direction to defend the thread. We are built like KC in just about every way outside of defensive philosophy. The Bengals are just the perfect image of consistent. They keep every playoff game close (besides ours). Usually scoring in the 20’s, not more, usually allowing around the same. Burrow doesn’t put up huge numbers, but he is always coming up with a timely play or drive. We are so opposite of this. All feast or famine on both sides of the ball. 

My argument is our coaching strength is on the defensive side of the ball and we spend a lot more on that side than the Chiefs and Bengals. Our defense should be performing much better than it is come playoff time.