Interesting comparison Gabe Davis & Hopkins

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

Davis is a straight playmaker,  especially in big games.  I understand the consistency issue and having Diggs but still, dude consistently makes huge plays. I love him as a #2 

 

It's like he can make all the tough catches and struggles with easier ones. Maybe he loses focus? And loses the ball but Dude will get paid next year by someone 

 

His drop rate went way up last year, but his average target depth is upwards of 15 yards in 2 of 3 years.  You're going to have a lower catch percentage and more drops when you are upwards of 15 yards from the LOS.  

 

3 players on buffalo were in the top 20 in drop % - Singletary, Mckenzie, and Davis.  I think the way singletary and mckenzie were used in the pass game - you want people there who catch the ball on short routes - explains why they were replaced, and why they added Sherfield, Harty, and Kincaid as all 3 have pretty good hands.  

 

Back to davis?  Deep Crossers, Go routes, and deep comebacks and hitches are sort of what he's good at from a route running perspective.  Trying to use him like a diggs is going to result in a lot of covered Davis routes where you have to pivot - so i don't know that it would result in an increased target share.  I'm hopeful they'll find ways to use harty, kinkaid, and shakir to just reduce his snap count a bit to help create #2 WR targets on a greater route tree. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

15 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

His drop rate went way up last year, but his average target depth is upwards of 15 yards in 2 of 3 years.  You're going to have a lower catch percentage and more drops when you are upwards of 15 yards from the LOS.  

 

3 players on buffalo were in the top 20 in drop % - Singletary, Mckenzie, and Davis.  I think the way singletary and mckenzie were used in the pass game - you want people there who catch the ball on short routes - explains why they were replaced, and why they added Sherfield, Harty, and Kincaid as all 3 have pretty good hands.  

 

Back to davis?  Deep Crossers, Go routes, and deep comebacks and hitches are sort of what he's good at from a route running perspective.  Trying to use him like a diggs is going to result in a lot of covered Davis routes where you have to pivot - so i don't know that it would result in an increased target share.  I'm hopeful they'll find ways to use harty, kinkaid, and shakir to just reduce his snap count a bit to help create #2 WR targets on a greater route tree. 

And 2 of 3 gonzo.  3 in the bottom 20 is ridiculous.  We had little choice but to keep Davis.   It wasnt as if Mckenzie/Singletary were dropping bullets thrown by Allen, that I could understand a bit.

 

Also lends credibility to why the wanted Kincaid so desperately, a player that has the best hands in years.

 

Didnt Knox have a lot of drops his first two years?  He seems to have cleaned it up or I am wrong.

Edited June 27, 2023 by RoyBatty is alive

[BananaB]

36 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

His drop rate went way up last year, but his average target depth is upwards of 15 yards in 2 of 3 years.  You're going to have a lower catch percentage and more drops when you are upwards of 15 yards from the LOS.  

 

3 players on buffalo were in the top 20 in drop % - Singletary, Mckenzie, and Davis.  I think the way singletary and mckenzie were used in the pass game - you want people there who catch the ball on short routes - explains why they were replaced, and why they added Sherfield, Harty, and Kincaid as all 3 have pretty good hands.  

 

Back to davis?  Deep Crossers, Go routes, and deep comebacks and hitches are sort of what he's good at from a route running perspective.  Trying to use him like a diggs is going to result in a lot of covered Davis routes where you have to pivot - so i don't know that it would result in an increased target share.  I'm hopeful they'll find ways to use harty, kinkaid, and shakir to just reduce his snap count a bit to help create #2 WR targets on a greater route tree. 

Can’t blame depth of route on his drop rate. Doesn’t matter if it’s 5 yards downfield or 70, if the ball hits you in the numbers you gotta catch it. 

[The Red King]

If your catch/drop rate depends on your ankles, you're trying to catch the ball in interesting ways.

 

Some of those drops were killers (looking at you, Jets' game).

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, The Red King said:

If your catch/drop rate depends on your ankles, you're trying to catch the ball in interesting ways.

 

Some of those drops were killers (looking at you, Jets' game).

Lower body injuries affect everything. 

[BananaB]

The excuses for Gabe gotta stop.  He had a poor catch percentage when he was the 4/3 WR. It’s just the big plays were heightened and the poor plays not as noticeable because we relied on him less. He is who he is at this point. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by BananaB

[The Red King]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Lower body injuries affect everything. 

 

To that degree?  Or, let's put this on the record.  According to you, with the injury healed his drop rate will drastically improve, right?  Because the injury was the cause of the drops?

[Mike in Horseheads]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

And 2 of 3 gonzo.  3 in the bottom 20 is ridiculous.  We had little choice but to keep Davis.   It wasnt as if Mckenzie/Singletary were dropping bullets thrown by Allen, that I could understand a bit.

 

Also lends credibility to why the wanted Kincaid so desperately, a player that has the best hands in years.

 

Didnt Knox have a lot of drops his first two years?  He seems to have cleaned it up or I am wrong.

 I suppose its better but he still drops a lot of pass's. He's another big play guy once in awhile but not reliable all the time

[RoyBatty is alive]

34 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

 I suppose its better but he still drops a lot of pass's. He's another big play guy once in awhile but not reliable all the time

Well I will "ride" on his injury last season as an "excuse". 

 

Either it was his innate ability or Davis was the luckiest receiver in the world in the playoffs, just everything clicked (looking at the film it is hard not to disagree) or it was a total on off situation.

[JerseyBills]

3 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

His drop rate went way up last year, but his average target depth is upwards of 15 yards in 2 of 3 years.  You're going to have a lower catch percentage and more drops when you are upwards of 15 yards from the LOS.  

 

3 players on buffalo were in the top 20 in drop % - Singletary, Mckenzie, and Davis.  I think the way singletary and mckenzie were used in the pass game - you want people there who catch the ball on short routes - explains why they were replaced, and why they added Sherfield, Harty, and Kincaid as all 3 have pretty good hands.  

 

Back to davis?  Deep Crossers, Go routes, and deep comebacks and hitches are sort of what he's good at from a route running perspective.  Trying to use him like a diggs is going to result in a lot of covered Davis routes where you have to pivot - so i don't know that it would result in an increased target share.  I'm hopeful they'll find ways to use harty, kinkaid, and shakir to just reduce his snap count a bit to help create #2 WR targets on a greater route tree. 

Agreed

I think Harty especially will take away snaps. Diggs-Knox-Kincaid-Harty gives this O another dimension.  Harty imo is a bit better version of John Brown and Allen killed it with him as basically our WR1. 

If Kincaid is close to what we think, this O could be unbelievably versatile and make play calling easier on Dorsey. 

 

But Davis is still a great weapon to have 

[PBF81]

On 6/26/2023 at 10:48 PM, Billsfanatixs said:

I didnt put much thought into this, but looking into receivers with best first down percentage these two fellas are right next to each other. in the image i know you cant see column names, but easy to figure out.

Not sure what my point is....

 

 

 

Your post isn't lost on me.  Many simply don't know how to analyze this stuff and instead resort to the simplest interpretation of stats in isolation and in light of that.  

 

Consider, if a WR drops a ball, but subsequently makes a big catch for a 1st Down, that's huge.  I'll take that all game long.  For most here, they can't get past the drop% narrative and can't help hating on the guy despite his specialty in running low percentage routes.  

 

It's similar with sacks, other than to prop up a player's perception, which can be valid, what good is a team logging two sacks on a drive that results in a TD.  Drive-ending sacks (on 3rd-downs) would be a much more useful data point/stat, but they don't keep 'em.  You have to research those yourself, which takes a lot of time.  

 

Davis is a big-play generating machine.  That's why the team likes him.  I've tried to point this out but some simply won't have it.  

 

He compares favorably with Davante Adams in some ways.  

 

Diggs & Davis were responsible for over 50% of the team's receiving 1st-Downs.  Davis had 44% of Diggs' catches sand 47% of Diggs' 1st-Downs, yet Dogs is heralded while Davis is slammed. 

 

Players around him that have the same number of 1st-Downs, typically have notably more catches required to do it.  Some here, by implication, would have you think that 2 catches, say one for 9 yards on 3rd-and-12, and another for say 7 yards on 1st-and-10 on a drive that stalls on that series otherwise,  going 2-for-2 (aka 100% catch%) is more valuable to the team than dropping a ball on 1st-and-10 but then catching one on 3rd-and-10 for 17 yards and a 1st-down (aka 50% catch%) and extending the drive.  Missing for most on that scenario is your 1st-Down %:  first player, 0% 1st-Downs, second player 50% 1st-Downs.  

 

Same with sacks.  10 sacks on a drive that results in a TD are worthless, other than in fantasy football, whereas one single sack that ends a drive is very meaningful.  

 

The game is about sustaining drives and scoring TDs, Davis does both well, very well. The problem is that to many people these days view real football like they do fantasy football or simply don't put two and two together to relate the stats & data to the actual real game ramifications.  It's easier to do and requires less thought and definitely less of an analytical regimen and aptitude.  

 

 

Edited June 28, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

14 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Come on with this.. the guy has a routine drop in just about every game minus a couple games(Pittsburgh and LA)… bottom line is he ain’t a reliable #2.

 

Is that really true, or more narrative than truth?

 

Did you look at the data before saying that?

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Silly question. If it is 3rd and 8 and you score a TD on a 20 yard reception, do you get credit for a first down reception as well? How about 2nd and goal and you score on a reception? 

[PBF81]

2022 team drop %

 

Singletary 11.5%  (1 TD/15 1st-Downs)

Shakir 10.0%  (1/7) 

Davis 9.7%  (7/35) 

Cook 9.4%  (1/5) 

McKenzie 9.2%  (4/27)

Knox 6.2%  (6/25) 

Diggs 5.2%  (11/74) 

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

2022 team drop %

 

Singletary 11.5%  (1 TD/15 1st-Downs)

Shakir 10.0%  (1/7) 

Davis 9.7%  (7/35) 

Cook 9.4%  (1/5) 

McKenzie 9.2%  (4/27)

Knox 6.2%  (6/25) 

Diggs 5.2%  (11/74) 

If that’s the percentage for the stats your have in brackets you might want to check your math….. Nevermind I see what ya did

Edited June 28, 2023 by BananaB