Dungy/Colts vs McDermott/Bills

[Mikie2times]

Sean McDermott and the Bills have some striking similarities to those Colts teams in the 2000's. Sean McDermott and Tony Dungy have some striking statistical similarities as well. What we are seeing amongst our fan base is actually very similar to what Colts fans experienced in those years. 

 

The NFL has had 145 coaches who at least had one year during the Super Bowl era and also coached at least 5 seasons

• Tony Dungy ranks 8th all time in regular season winning % in that sample, Sean McDermott ranks 12th
• Tony Dungy ranks 1st all time in % of years coaching that resulted in a playoff birth (85%), Sean McDermott ranks 2nd (83%)

 

No coach in NFL history (outside Sean McDermott) with 5 or more years in coaching, and led his team to a playoff birth 70% of the time has failed to win a Super Bowl. This also includes Tony Dungy. Other qualifying coaches are John Madden, Andy Reid, Mike Holmgren, Pete Carrol, and Bill Walsh. At even 60% or greater, 33 Super Bowls are represented with the only coaches to not win one being Bud Grant, Marty Schottenheimer, Dennis Green, and Mike Vrabel. 19 of 24 coaches that led teams to the playoffs 60% or more of the time won at least one.

 

In the above context Sean McDermott has not just been good, he has been historically good. Same as Dungy, and both were good in somewhat similar situations. Both  defensive minded, zone defenses at that, elite QB's, facing off against the combination of a juggernaut QB and coaching tandem. 

 

• Colts first season with Dungy they lost in the Wild Card 
• Colts second season with Dungy they lost in the AFC Championship
• Colts third season with Dungy they lost in the Divisional round
• Colts fourth season with Dungy they lost in the Wild Card
• Colts fifth season with Dungy they won the Super Bowl

 

As far as playoff losses, those Colts teams have been very similar to what we have seen from Buffalo. By no means was the path linear and I would argue that part of what allowed the Colts to finally breakthrough was just showing up year after year. The historical data on just showing up that often becomes pretty overwhelming. Dungy would go onto coach 2 more years. Ousted by the Chargers in the Wild Card round both times. 

 

In this time, Dungy was a polarizing figure. That Colts team, like this Bills team, was elite. Expectations were very high. Most Colts fans would argue they didn't achieve what they should have despite winning a Super Bowl. So when people support Sean McDermott at a high level, he deserves it. Further, when people are not supportive. That's understandable as well. Plenty of space exists for both opinions and neither disqualifies you as a fan. 

 

Sorry in advance for another McDermott related thread, I just think the history of the Colts team can teach us some things on why people feel the way that they do. It doesn't need to be so polarizing. We all want the same thing.  

 

Go Bills!   

 

 

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

Here’s another similarity.  Dungy  had to face a HOF coach in Belichick and a HOF QB in Brady every year.  McD has to face the same in Reid and Mahomes.  Even with great QBs (Manning, Allen) it’s just not that easy to beat a combo like those.

[boater]

A borderline positive thread about McDermott.. not allowed. Are you not aware of the zeitgeist on this board?

 

[LABILLBACKER]

So in other words there's a chance....

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Here’s another similarity.  Dungy  had to face a HOF coach in Belichick and a HOF QB in Brady every year.  McD has to face the same in Reid and Mahomes.  Even with great QBs (Manning, Allen) it’s just not that easy to beat a combo like those.

Terrible to think the Bills role under McDermott is to be Reid's B word.  But what is worse, is we are looking more like the Steelers with Big Ben, hoping that Brady and Manning both have an off year. 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Terrible to think the Bills role under McDermott is to be Reid's B word.  But what is worse, is we are looking more like the Steelers with Big Ben, hoping that Brady and Manning both have an off year. 

We’ll get there.  Right now we have three great QBs in the conference.  Mahomes, Josh, Burrow.  But things will change around them.  Burrow won’t keep his WR crew.  Kelce will age.  Kincaid will find his way for us.  And so on.  Should be great football to watch for the next decade or so.

[Nextmanup]

* playoff berth*

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

My biggest comparison was the 2 teams offensive lines. I can only pray our line gets better... 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So in other words there's a chance....

 

Haha, yeah. There is a chance that Allen drags McDermott kicking and screaming to a Super Bowl like Manning dragged Dungy.

[Mikie2times]

40 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Haha, yeah. There is a chance that Allen drags McDermott kicking and screaming to a Super Bowl like Manning dragged Dungy.

We just don't know who he will become yet. He could be Marty or he could be Madden. Statements like this are why the board is so polarized. 

 

The year the Colts won the Super Bowl, Manning had 3 TD's and 7 INT's. Prior to that year, in playoff losses he had 2 TD's and 7 INT's. Manning hardly pulled Dungy to a Super Bowl. They won it as a result of swings at the plate which is exactly what McDermott has done. With swings at the plate the likelihood of success is greater.    

 

Dungy certainly not the first example of a coach that took awhile when an active dynasty was erupting. I know you wish that active dynasty was us, perhaps it can be. I don't believe it's just a coach away. If you do, so be it.   

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Haha, yeah. There is a chance that Allen drags McDermott kicking and screaming to a Super Bowl like Manning dragged Dungy.

Not sure if Manning did the dragging. Many at that time thought Peyton crumbled under pressure in those first four playoffs years. It took experiencing and learning from those failures that finally propelled him (and Dungy) past Brady/Belichick. Even in the game they broke through they were down 21-3 at halftime. I remember thinking Peyton was choking again as I watched. So there’s hope that both McD and Allen can learn from their past failures to finally propel them through. 

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Haha, yeah. There is a chance that Allen drags McDermott kicking and screaming to a Super Bowl like Manning dragged Dungy.

 

Without Dungy's defense, Manning doesn't win a Lombardi in Indy.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Nice topic OP.

 

Another similarity so far anyway is the dominance of KC today is similar to the dominance of New England during the Peyton and Dungy years. 

 

2023 Bills = Mid 2000 Colts

2023 Bengals = Mid 2000 Steelers

2023 Chiefs = Mid 2000 Patriots

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

Terrible to think the Bills role under McDermott is to be Reid's B word.  But what is worse, is we are looking more like the Steelers with Big Ben, hoping that Brady and Manning both have an off year. 

 

I think you have it backwards. Bills are the Peyton Manning Colts. Bengals, who have already been to a Super Bowl with a QB in his second season (just like Big Ben) and a AFC Championship game appearance in the next season, are Big Ben's Steelers. 

 

The Big Ben Steelers had more post season success than the Peyton Manning Colts. 3 appearance and two rings to 2 appearances and one ring. 

 

As the OP mentioned, we are playing the longevity game. Just get to the dance every year and eventually the ball will bounce our way and we will win one title. Question is, will that be this year, next year or 5+ years down the road? As long as we are making the dance every year we have a legit shot. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

We just don't know who he will become yet. He could be Marty or he could be Madden. Statements like this are why the board is so polarized. 

 

The year the Colts won the Super Bowl, Manning had 3 TD's and 7 INT's. Prior to that year, in playoff losses he had 2 TD's and 7 INT's. Manning hardly pulled Dungy to a Super Bowl. They won it as a result of swings at the plate which is exactly what McDermott has done. With swings at the plate the likelihood of success is greater.    

 

Dungy certainly not the first example of a coach that took awhile when an active dynasty was erupting. I know you wish that active dynasty was us, perhaps it can be. I don't believe it's just a coach away. If you do, so be it.   

 

It appears McDermott is in a critical year. Even on borrowed time. Coaches don't win their first super bowl after year 5 when they have a Bonafide franchise QB. Allen and McDermott just completed year 5 together. Dungy hit the jack pot in year 5. McDermott did not. 

 

 

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

We just don't know who he will become yet. He could be Marty or he could be Madden. Statements like this are why the board is so polarized. 

 

The year the Colts won the Super Bowl, Manning had 3 TD's and 7 INT's. Prior to that year, in playoff losses he had 2 TD's and 7 INT's. Manning hardly pulled Dungy to a Super Bowl. They won it as a result of swings at the plate which is exactly what McDermott has done. With swings at the plate the likelihood of success is greater.    

 

Dungy certainly not the first example of a coach that took awhile when an active dynasty was erupting. I know you wish that active dynasty was us, perhaps it can be. I don't believe it's just a coach away. If you do, so be it.   

I think we all have a pretty good idea of who McDermott is as far as historical HC's.  It will be up to Josh to determine what legacy Sean has.

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It appears McDermott is in a critical year. Even on borrowed time. Coaches don't win their first super bowl after year 5 when they have a Bonafide franchise QB. Allen and McDermott just completed year 5 together. Dungy hit the jack pot in year 5. McDermott did not. 

Josh has only been elite for three seasons though while Manning was already elite when Dungy got there.  There's no perfect comparison. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Josh has only been elite for three seasons though while Manning was already elite when Dungy got there.  There's no perfect comparison. 

 

True. Which is likely why unless the bottom totally falls out, McDermott will likely be fired at the conclusion of the 2024 season at the earliest. If he is fired at all. 

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Josh has only been elite for three seasons though while Manning was already elite when Dungy got there.  There's no perfect comparison. 

True, we could also say Josh has performed better than Manning so far in the playoffs. Again, not a perfect comparison. Lots of angles to this. 

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Haha, yeah. There is a chance that Allen drags McDermott kicking and screaming to a Super Bowl like Manning dragged Dungy.

I think that's the likely way it happens if it happens.