How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?

[Augie]

37 minutes ago, teef said:

He doesn’t understand, and for some reason he really, really needs this.  Let him have it. 

 

It’s sad, but also kinda funny. Mostly funny. Apparently he realizes nonsense is not our strong suit, so there is that. 

[Einstein]

58 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

You're doing simple math that we all learned in grade school. (Mean, median, and mode! YAY!) You're not finding the probability of anything.

 

Actually, that’s exactly what i’m doing (on a simple level). Do you not understand how probability works? I’ll teach you. It’s simple math. For example, the probability of landing a heads or a tails on a two sided coin in 50%. Because there are two faces and 1/2 = 0.5. Or how about the probability of rolling a 6 on a six-sided die? The total number of outcomes is 6 (the die can land on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6). The number of favorable outcomes is 1. So the probability is P = 1 / 6 ≈ 0.1667.  

 

I’m sure you’ll say “but variables”, and you can find conditional probability with variables as well. For example… say Josh Allen completes a pass 65% of the time (making it up). However, his completion rate increases to 75% when the Bills are in the lead and we lead in 40% of our games. So, how can we figure out the probability the Bills are winning the game if Allen completes a pass?  Well, we can define L as the Bills currently having the lead, P as Allen just completing a pass, and we want to find P(L | P)… (the probability the Bills are leading when Allen just completed the pass). We know from our data set that P(L) = 0.40 ... P(~L) = 1 - P(L) = 0.60 (probability the Bills are losing). P(P | L) = 0.75, the probability of Allen just completing a pass given the Bills are in the lead. P(P | ~L) = 0.65, the probability of Allen completing a pass given the Bills are losing or tied.  Then using the law of total probability we can find Allen’s total probability of completing a pass in ANY scenario (winning or losing): P(P) = P(P and L) + P(P and ~L) = P(P | L) * P(L) + P(P | ~L) * P(~L) = 0.75 * 0.40 + 0.65 * 0.60 = 0.30 + 0.39 = 0.69.

 

Lastly you can use Bayes theorem to find the probability the Bills are leading when Allen just completed that pass: P(L | P) = [P(P | L) * P(L)] / P(P) = (0.75 * 0.40) / 0.69 = 0.434. So, if Allen just completed a pass (given the data set - and my data set was much larger), there is about a 43.4% chance the Bills are currently leading in the gwmeZ. I think.

 

13 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

It’s sad, but also kinda funny. Mostly funny. Apparently he realizes nonsense is not our strong suit, so there is that. 

 

This is rich, coming from a poster that likes posts full of factual inaccuracies (literal statistical wrongs) because they have a (wrong) conclusion that agree with his own. You don’t care about facts - you want your feelings placated.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Einstein

[90sBills]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think I could accept the simple argument that McDermott blew 13 seconds. Everything else is just ridiculous.

 

 I don’t know how I would feel if there’s another poor coaching decision that costs us a game at the end. I’m pretty sure the majority would call for his firing if that happens again.

 

 

Allen is a top 2-3 QB in my mind. He definitely should win a Super Bowl in his career. I just can’t make an argument against McDermott for not beating other great QBs.

 

I’ll add this, Allen has done enough to beat Mahomes in the playoffs, McDermott did not. I think that’s fair.

Yes absolutely! We’re all in agreement with McDermott blowing 13sec. Allen absolutely did do enough to beat Mahomes in that game and it was heartbreaking to see how that turned out. But that’s 1 out of 3 games against the other top two qbs in the conference. He wasn’t great in the 1st playoff game against Mahomes and was completely terrible against Burrow this past season. He has to be better the next time.

 

I think he’s the #2 guy behind Mahomes. Allen is more talented than Burrow imo. 

[Einstein]

18 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’ll add this, Allen has done enough to beat Mahomes in the playoffs, McDermott did not. I think that’s fair.

 

And the data shows that McDermott likely never will.

[JJGauna]

12 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Belichick didn’t have a franchise QB in Cleveland.

So at one point did Josh become a franchise QB? Year 3? 4? So your timer for McD starts then right?

Edited June 25, 2023 by JJGauna
Replaced elite with franchise

[WhoTom]

How long does it take a genius to win his first Nobel Prize?

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

If it happens, it probably happens with Allen. Unless he gets another star QB after Allen, but I think a coach typically only has one star QB in his career.

 

Well, if it happens it'll be tragic, to start.  The same people defending McD now will be up in arms saying that they should have ditched him sooner, and not that that will matter, just sayin'.  

 

Otherwise I was being somewhat sarcastic.  Many NFL teams have never had a top-3 QB let alone coaches.  I can think of a few teams that had two great QBs offhand, SF with Montana & Young, GB with Favre & Rodgers, but unless you count Seifert getting Montana's last two years before transitioning to Favre I'm not sure another coach has.  

 

It's definitely very unusual at best.  

 

 

[LeGOATski]

16 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Actually, that’s exactly what i’m doing (on a simple level). Do you not understand how probability works? I’ll teach you. It’s simple math. For example, the probability of landing a heads or a tails on a two sided coin in 50%. Because there are two faces and 1/2 = 0.5. Or how about the probability of rolling a 6 on a six-sided die? The total number of outcomes is 6 (the die can land on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6). The number of favorable outcomes is 1. So the probability is P = 1 / 6 ≈ 0.1667.  

 

I’m sure you’ll say “but variables”, and you can find conditional probability with variables as well. For example… say Josh Allen completes a pass 65% of the time (making it up). However, his completion rate increases to 75% when the Bills are in the lead and we lead in 40% of our games. So, how can we figure out the probability the Bills are winning the game if Allen completes a pass?  Well, we can define L as the Bills currently having the lead, P as Allen just completing a pass, and we want to find P(L | P)… (the probability the Bills are leading when Allen just completed the pass). We know from our data set that P(L) = 0.40 ... P(~L) = 1 - P(L) = 0.60 (probability the Bills are losing). P(P | L) = 0.75, the probability of Allen just completing a pass given the Bills are in the lead. P(P | ~L) = 0.65, the probability of Allen completing a pass given the Bills are losing or tied.  Then using the law of total probability we can find Allen’s total probability of completing a pass in ANY scenario (winning or losing): P(P) = P(P and L) + P(P and ~L) = P(P | L) * P(L) + P(P | ~L) * P(~L) = 0.75 * 0.40 + 0.65 * 0.60 = 0.30 + 0.39 = 0.69.

 

Lastly you can use Bayes theorem to find the probability the Bills are leading when Allen just completed that pass: P(L | P) = [P(P | L) * P(L)] / P(P) = (0.75 * 0.40) / 0.69 = 0.434. So, if Allen just completed a pass (given the data set - and my data set was much larger), there is about a 43.4% chance the Bills are currently leading in the gwmeZ. I think.

That was a lot of copy pasta from the internets and editing for relevance. I give you an A for effort. 

 

Now what's the probability of McDermott reaching the Super Bowl?

4 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

How long does it take a genius to win his first Nobel Prize?

 

Well, it took Einstein 25 years to be considered a genius and then 16 more years to win a Nobel prize.

 

Our own Einstein has plenty of time.

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

If it happens, it probably happens with Allen. Unless he gets another star QB after Allen, but I think a coach typically only has one star QB in his career.

If this happens it would be a first in NFL history. Truly unprecedented stuff. A coach has never won a superbowl outside of 5 years with the same qb. Last year was their fifth year together. 

[Einstein]

24 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

That was a lot of copy pasta from the internets and editing for relevance. I give you an A for effort. 

 

It’s sad that math is so elusive nowadays that it’s seen as foreign and copied.

 

24 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

 

Now what's the probability of McDermott reaching the Super Bowl?

 

We know the historical percentage of coaches who made it past year 7. My post above spelled this out for you already, but given that only 5 coaches in the last 40 years have made it to the SB past year 7 of their coaching career, the simple probability historically = (Number of coaches past year 7 who made a Super Bowl) / (Number of Super Bowl coaches).  5 / 48 or approximately 0.1042 (10.42%). but this doesn’t take into account some coaches made it several times, and other coaches made it one time and there are more than 48 opportunities but because of the duplicate coaching data it doesn’t take that into account.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Einstein

[WhoTom]

Heard this on the radio yesterday and it reminded me of this thread:

 

 

[teef]

35 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

It’s sad, but also kinda funny. Mostly funny. Apparently he realizes nonsense is not our strong suit, so there is that. 

I love the guy. 

[Einstein]

17 minutes ago, JJGauna said:

So at one point did Josh become a franchise QB? Year 3? 4? So your timer for McD starts then right?

 

In my opinion Allen became a franchise QB in year 2, when he had 29 TD’s.

 

But keep in mind (since I sense that this is where you’re going) that the data reflects total years. Not years since a coach gets a franchise QB. My Belichick comment was simply explaining the variable.

[LeGOATski]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

It’s sad that math is so elusive nowadays that it’s seen as foreign and copied.

 

 

My post above spelled this out for you already, but given that only 5 coaches in the last 40 years have made it to the SB past year 7 of their coaching career, the simple probability= (Number of coaches past year 7 who made a Super Bowl) / (Number of Super Bowl coaches).  5 / 48 or approximately 0.1042 (10.42%).

Is this your final answer? McDermott has a 10.42% chance of making the Super Bowl?

 

Pretty ***** stellar, considering there are 32 teams in the league. And McDermott doesn't only have 1 year, he has about a 5 year window. ***** awesome!

[Gugny]

5 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

Heard this on the radio yesterday and it reminded me of this thread:

 

 

Great tune!

[Einstein]

17 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

If this happens it would be a first in NFL history. Truly unprecedented stuff. A coach has never won a superbowl outside of 5 years with the same qb. Last year was their fifth year together. 

 

But but but… you’re cherry picking stats.

But but but… there are other variables.

 

(Just warming you up to the upcoming excuses. Completely invalid excuses but excuses nonetheless).

 

McDermott is also the longest tenured coach without a Super Bowl appearance. Because in the modern era, teams typically fire coaches who haven’t made a Super Bowl by this point in their career (especially with a franchise QB).

9 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Is this your final answer? McDermott has a 10.42% chance of making the Super Bowl?

 

Pretty ***** stellar, considering there are 32 teams in the league. And McDermott doesn't only have 1 year, he has about a 5 year window. ***** awesome!

 

Not exactly how it works. McDermott does not have a 10% chance. That’s the historical percentage among the 48 coaches. But some made it 1 time and others made it numerous times.

 

.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Einstein

[DrW]

14 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

How long does it take a genius to win his first Nobel Prize?

 

 

That by itself is a very interesting topic. If we just take into account the "hard" sciences, chemistry, physics, and physiology/medicine (the Nobel Peace Prize was once awarded to a 17-year-old, Malala Yousafzai), the youngest one was Lawrence Bragg in physics at the age of 25. The oldest one was also a physicist, Raymond Davis Jr. at 88. The one who had to wait the longest was another physicist, Ernst Ruska. He built the first electron microscope in 1933 and was rewarded with the Nobel Prize 47 years later in 1980.

[LeGOATski]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Not exactly how it works. That’s the historical percentage among the 48 coaches. But some made it 1 time and others made it numerous times. 

What's the probability of McDermott reaching the Super Bowl? You said 10.42%

 

I liked that answer, but I guess I'll let you change it. 

 

I calculate the probability of your next answer being lower than 10.42% is 100%.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

The best QB in a given season doesn’t always win the Super Bowl, but a lot of the arguments are that McDermott should’ve won with Allen. 
 

In the last 3 years Allen has lost to the best QB in the AFC and someone equal to Allen. When they played Houston Watson was a better QB.

So making the QB argument doesn’t work against McDermott, at least not yet. He’s facing teams with just as good QB play or better.

First, I like McD and approve of the contract extension.  But that being said Allen did beat Mahomes in that 2021 playoff game by leading TWO epic 4th quarter TD drives.  That KC was able to get a FG with 13 seconds left is on McD and the coaching staff.  And no one will convince me otherwise.  So your basic premise is false IMO.

 

Second, the 3 QB's you mentioned - Mahomes, Burrow & Watson - all benefited from offenses that were stacked with talent in organizations that pushed the majority of their resources to surrounding their elite QB's with play makers and an effective O line.  By any criteria Allen has had much less to work with then the 3 QB's you brought up.

 

This is my biggest issue with McD.  He and Bean have focused on the D at the expense of the O and it has not led to a SB.  It has led to the Bills being one of the top 4 teams in the NFL over the last 3 seasons and winning 3 straight division titles. From what I can see this has started to change and will lead to a SB berth in the next couple of seasons.

 

So to part ways with McD over his failure to reach the SB in the face of his clear success is dumb.  To blame the failure to reach the SB on Allen is dumber.

 

 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

What's the probability of McDermott reaching the Super Bowl? You said 10.42%

 

I liked that answer, but I guess I'll let you change it. 

 

I calculate the probability of your next answer being lower than 10.42% is 100%.

 

I will be honest and say that I worded my response to you very poorly. That’s not your fault.  I have since edited it to make it more