How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?

[newcam2012]

44 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You don’t know.  That is the point.  No one is saying the team falls apart without McD.  Don’t be silly.  What I am saying is that you cannot just assume the next guy is going to be the answer. As for a guy like Payton, I could be wrong but I believe there has never been a case where a HC has won a SB for two different teams.

I'm not assuming a new head coach is going to be the answer. I'm also not assuming McD can or can't make the leap either. Both are unknowns.

 

I'm saying it's worth the risk to hire a new head coach because I've seen what McD has done in the playoffs. I'm not impressed whatsoever.

 

I'm saying a new head coach can achieve close to the same or more than McD based on the Allen factor. 

 

The status quo just doesn't cut it anymore. Pegula obviously disagrees. 

 

Of course, many including yourself disagree. That's more than ok with me. 

[freddyjj]

6 hours ago, Einstein said:

PS, for everyone who is interested in this line of research.

 

Five Thirty Eight (the polling website) did an entire research column on an offshoot of this very subject. Rather than just looking at coaches, they looked at head coach and quarterback duos.

 

The result? They determined that HC/QB duo’s have only 5 years.

 

Very close to my 4.2 result.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-coaches-and-qbs-should-divorce-after-five-years-of-not-winning/amp/

This little nugget appeared in article linked above

 

"This is strikingly common in NFL history. Of the 31 head coaches to win at least one Super Bowl, 27 of them won their first championship within the first five seasons with that team. Only Chuck Noll (six years in Pittsburgh), John Madden (eight years in Oakland), Tom Landry (12 years in Dallas) and Bill Cowher (14 years in Pittsburgh) needed more than five years to capture that elusive first ring."

 

All 4 of the outliers are Hall of Fame coaches.  Since above article was written in 2017, add Andy Reid to list of outliers as won SB with KC in year 7.  And I believe he will make HOF too. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by freddyjj

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I think a lot the argument against McDermott is that he has Josh Allen.

 

Many people leave out the 2 QBs that have beaten the Bills the last 3 years. In fact I could easily make the argument that the only games McDermott has lost in the playoffs were to teams with better QB play. Not sure if that is a compliment for McDermott though. 
 

I think we have to stop saying he should do better with Allen when Allen isn’t the best QB in the AFC.

 

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[newcam2012]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are correct. Again, not sure if that proves anything. A bit like the original stat from @Einstein it is interesting but does not suggest causation. 

 

The point with Sean Payton for me (and I think he is second only to Andy Reid as a play caller) is that he had an elite level future HOF Quarterback for 15 years, won 1 Superbowl, missed the playoffs multiple times and has a list of disastrous playoff exits to teams the Saints were better than. It is one thing losing playoff games to Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. It's another losing to Matt Hasselbeck, Rex Grossman and Case Keenum. 

 

If the argument is about the Bills underachieving in the playoffs the antidote to that can't be Sean Payton, as good of a coach as I believe him to be.

That's fair. Payton is just one example of possible candidates. Personally, I would not have liked giving up draft picks to retain him. If I'm worong here I stand corrected. 

 

I here where you are going with Payton. I just feel he would be a great fit with Allen. His offensive prowlness would be benifical and a welcome addition. I can definelty say the same about Ben Johnson. Imho, Allen would benefit from change and a new offensive mindset. 

 

I feel like McD is not a great fit for Allen. Maybe I'm wrong here. 

 

McD is a defensive minded coach whose defense turns into "paper tigers" come playoff time. We've seen it routinely in the playoffs. I have little confidence his defense will be up to the task this year. Granted it's an extremely tough task to stop or contain Mahomes and Burrow. Yet, teams find ways to derail the Bills offense. 

 

With that said, I would rather shift to an offense minded coach. Someone who can let Allen cook. Someone who can get creative. Someone who can have a plan when teams take away Diggs in the playoffs. Someone who can utilize all their offensive weapons. Someone who will go down swinging for the fences. Someone who can add ingenuity to the offense. Very skeptical that McD and Dorsey are those guys. 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

29 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm not assuming a new head coach is going to be the answer. I'm also not assuming McD can or can't make the leap either. Both are unknowns.

 

I'm saying it's worth the risk to hire a new head coach because I've seen what McD has done in the playoffs. I'm not impressed whatsoever.

 

I'm saying a new head coach can achieve close to the same or more than McD based on the Allen factor. 

 

The status quo just doesn't cut it anymore. Pegula obviously disagrees. 

 

Of course, many including yourself disagree. That's more than ok with me. 

We all want a Lombardi.  To get one you have to make the playoffs.  McD ads teams do that regularly.  As for anyone being able to achieve that with Allen as QB, refer to Gunned’s post above about Payton.

 

if any guy is on the hot seat it would be Dorsey.

[newcam2012]

39 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think a lot the argument against McDermott is that he has Josh Allen.

 

Many people leave out the 2 QBs that have beaten the Bills the last 3 years. In fact I could easily make the argument that the only games McDermott has lost in the playoffs were to teams with better QB play. Not sure if that is a compliment for McDermott though. 
 

I think we have to stop saying he should do better with Allen when Allen isn’t the best QB in the AFC.

 

 

That's a terrible mindset to possess. With that kind of thinking the Bills are very unlikely to win anything of substance. Just pack it in now.

 

Instead, I say would say the Bills have Allen and he's more than capable of beating Mahomes and Burrow. The playing field is very close without huge separation. A strong case can be made that Allen is better than Burrow. 

 

Stop with the excuses. The Bills were favorites to win the SB for a reason. 

 

The major differentiator between the team's is coaching. Lou Anarumo took Dorsey to the woodshed and McD handed KC a golden ticket. A Fraizer led D under the direct supervision of McD has been paper tigers in the playoffs. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by newcam2012

[newcam2012]

16 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

We all want a Lombardi.  To get one you have to make the playoffs.  McD ads teams do that regularly.  As for anyone being able to achieve that with Allen as QB, refer to Gunned’s post above about Payton.

 

if any guy is on the hot seat it would be Dorsey.

He's likely to be the next scapegoat if the Bills fail to meet their goals and expectations. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

That's a terrible mindset to possess. With that kind of thinking the Bills are very unlikely to win anything of substance. Just pack it in now.

 

Instead, I say would say the Bills have Allen and he's more than capable of beating Mahomes and Burrow. The playing field is very close without huge separationd. A strong case can be made that Allen is better than Burrow. 

 

Stop with the excuses. The Bills were favorites to win the SB for a reason. 

 

The major differentiator between the team's is coaching. Lou Anarumo took Dorsey to the woodshed and McD headed KC a golden ticket. A Fraizer leaf D under the direct supervision of McD has been paper tigers in the playoffs. 

The best QB in a given season doesn’t always win the Super Bowl, but a lot of the arguments are that McDermott should’ve won with Allen. 
 

In the last 3 years Allen has lost to the best QB in the AFC and someone equal to Allen. When they played Houston Watson was a better QB.

So making the QB argument doesn’t work against McDermott, at least not yet. He’s facing teams with just as good QB play or better.

[LeGOATski]

13 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I see that data analysis is not your strong suit.

This is the most crude version of data analysis, if you want to call it that. You're not even using all the data. At least you have proven that McDermott, like all NFL coaches, can be great at a moment in time and have until the end of their career to make the Super Bowl. There is value in proving what we already assume to be true, so your efforts are not for nothing.

13 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

He won't have that long, he'll have until Allen's spent.  

 

Them they'll decide that they need to go in another direction.  LOL 

 

 

If it happens, it probably happens with Allen. Unless he gets another star QB after Allen, but I think a coach typically only has one star QB in his career.

[Einstein]

22 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

and have until the end of their career to make the Super Bowl.

 

The data indicates the probability of the complete opposite. But again, I realize that this is not your strong suit.

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

This little nugget appeared in article linked above

 

"This is strikingly common in NFL history. Of the 31 head coaches to win at least one Super Bowl, 27 of them won their first championship within the first five seasons with that team.

 

Yep.

 

My analysis of the data is strikingly accurate with all of the other (similar studies) done on this topic.

 

I understand @GunnerBill assertion that it doesn’t prove causation, and he is right that there is no absolute, but the evidence is so darn consistent that you would really have to squint to pretend that it’s not alarming.

[LeGOATski]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

The data indicates the probability of the complete opposite. But again, I realize that this is not your strong suit.

You're doing simple math that we all learned in grade school. (Mean, median, and mode! YAY!) You're not finding the probability of anything. A real frickin Einstein over here.

[teef]

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

You're doing simple math that we all learned in grade school. (Mean, median, and mode! YAY!) You're not finding the probability of anything. A real frickin Einstein over here.

He doesn’t understand, and for some reason he really, really needs this.  Let him have it. 

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, teef said:

He doesn’t understand, and for some reason he really, really needs this.  Let him have it. 

Did we just "let em have it" when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!?! Hell no!!

[SoCal Deek]

There are so many variables that go into these sort of comparisons that I prefer to look at it simply from the perspective of the McD reign alone. They’ve failed in the playoffs for the last few years after having really successful regular seasons and the last failures have come with some hard-to-repeat circumstances (injuries galore and thirteen seconds). If they fail again this year the resume is going to get really bruised. In fact, I believe failing to make the playoffs, might actually get him a mulligan as being chalked up to a ‘down year’. Whereas yet another playoff underperformance might be the last straw. 

[McBean]

Doesn't matter how long it takes McClappy, assuming if he ever does make it.

 

My fear is we are wasting Allen during is prime years with McClap as HC. Odds are we won't ever have a QB as talented as Josh in my lifetime and with the NFL being all about the QB, time is ticking having mediocre McDermott strolling the sidelines.

 

But hey? We should all be so GRATEFUL that we broke the drought due to...uhhh..McDermott (not Andy Dalton miracle.) So let's just give him a lifetime contract while we are at it!!!!!

 

He's going to be our Marvin Lewis. Book it.

[LeGOATski]

11 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Actually, we are, on a crude level.  Probability is the likelihood of something occurring and can be calculated from basic math and a date set (40 years of Super Bowl coaches). For example, the probability of flipping a coin and it being heads is 50%. Because there are two faces and 1 divided by 2 = 0.5 … P(heads) = ½. Another example would be the probability of rolling a 6 on a fair six-sided die. The total number of outcomes is 6 (the die can land on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6). The number of favorable outcomes (rolling a 6) is 1. So the probability is P = 1 / 6 ≈ 0.1667. You can even do it with basic math when there are two variables each contributing toward the outcome. For example, suppose you have a deck of cards (52 cards, 13 of each suit: hearts, diamonds, clubs, spades) and we want to know the probability that any card you draw is a king, given that it is a heart. In this case, event A is drawing a king and event B is drawing a heart. P(B), the probability of drawing a heart, is 13/52 (since there are 13 hearts in a deck of 52 cards). P(A ∩ B), the probability of drawing a king of hearts, is 1/52 (since there is one king of hearts in a deck of 52 cards) … so you have P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) = (1/52) / (13/52) = 1/13.

For the record, Einstein replied with this but it appears he has since deleted it...

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, McBean said:

Doesn't matter how long it takes McClappy, assuming if he ever does make it.

 

My fear is we are wasting Allen during is prime years with McClap as HC. Odds are we won't ever have a QB as talented as Josh in my lifetime and with the NFL being all about the QB, time is ticking having mediocre McDermott strolling the sidelines.

 

But hey? We should all be so GRATEFUL that we broke the drought due to...uhhh..McDermott (not Andy Dalton miracle.) So let's just give him a lifetime contract while we are at it!!!!!

 

He's going to be our Marvin Lewis. Book it.

Quarterback’s prime years extend into their late 30s now.  Josh has plenty of time.

31 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

You're doing simple math that we all learned in grade school. (Mean, median, and mode! YAY!) You're not finding the probability of anything. A real frickin Einstein over here.

He talks about his analysis but he hasn’t actually analyzed anything.  All he did was cherry pick a data set to match his preconceived agenda.  No statistical analysis, no consideration of variables.  What is his conclusion?  We have some who, when challenged, can only revert to claiming ad hominem attacks.  

[90sBills]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think a lot the argument against McDermott is that he has Josh Allen.

 

Many people leave out the 2 QBs that have beaten the Bills the last 3 years. In fact I could easily make the argument that the only games McDermott has lost in the playoffs were to teams with better QB play. Not sure if that is a compliment for McDermott though. 
 

I think we have to stop saying he should do better with Allen when Allen isn’t the best QB in the AFC.

 

 

Not too many Bills fans would be on board with this. Most think Allen is an unmatched generational talent. So it’s easier to blame the coaching staff.

 

Allen is an elite qb that is capable of winning it all. But he has to improve on some things to reach that goal regardless of who the coaching staff is. This upcoming season is a big test. He’s ‘focused’ solely on football now so let’s see where this goes. 

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I think I could accept the simple argument that McDermott blew 13 seconds. Everything else is just ridiculous.

 

 I don’t know how I would feel if there’s another poor coaching decision that costs us a game at the end. I’m pretty sure the majority would call for his firing if that happens again.

 

 

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Not too many Bills fans would be on board with this. Most think Allen is an unmatched generational talent. So it’s easier to blame the coaching staff.

 

Allen is an elite qb that is capable of winning it all. But he has to improve on some things to reach that goal regardless of who the coaching staff is. This upcoming season is a big test. He’s ‘focused’ solely on football now so let’s see where this goes. 

 

 

 

Allen is a top 2-3 QB in my mind. He definitely should win a Super Bowl in his career. I just can’t make an argument against McDermott for not beating other great QBs.

 

I’ll add this, Allen has done enough to beat Mahomes in the playoffs, McDermott did not. I think that’s fair.