folz Posted July 13, 2023 Posted July 13, 2023 (edited) On 7/10/2023 at 9:06 PM, wakingfane said: I am a huge McDermott fan but this thread does actually make me concerned / raise the eyebrows a bit. I would be interested to factor in each coach's win loss record up to the year they made the Super Bowl as well. And who are the highest win loss percentage coach's who NEVER actually made the Super Bowl. Just based on name and reputation, would you fire them too?? Sure, every case is individual and unique and there's always an anomaly to the trend, but seriously, just look at the company McD is in within this chart and it's not inspiring. I'm not sure if I totally understand what question(s) you are asking and why, but... Here are the coaches with the highest win% with no Super Bowl appearances (including only HCs with all, or the majority of their career in the SB era; active coaches in purple): Matt LaFleur (4 yrs): .712 Blanton Collier (8 yrs): .691 Sean McDermott (6 yrs): .639 Marty Shottenheimer (21 yrs): .613 Mike Sherman (6 yrs): .594 Mike Smith (7 yrs): .589 Mike Vrabel (5yrs): .585 Don Coryell (14 yrs): .572 Wade Phillips (12 yrs): .562 Mike Zimmer (8 yrs): .562 Jason Garrett (10 yrs): .559 Chuck Knox (22 yrs): .558 Joe Schmidt (6 yrs): .558 Chuck Pagano (6 yrs): .552 Frank Reich (5 yrs): .547 Jerry Burns (6 yrs): .547 Dennis Green (13 yrs): .546 Jim Mora (15 yrs): .541 Chuck Fairbanks (6 yrs): .541 Jack Pardee (11 yrs): .530 Brad Childress (5 yrs): .527 John Robinson (9 yrs): .524 Matt Nagy (4 yrs): .523 Bill O'Brien (7 yrs): .520 Kevin Stefanski (3 yrs): .520 Art Shell (5 yrs): .519 Ron Meyer (9 yrs): .519 Marvin Lewis (16 yrs): .518 Steve Mariucci (9 yrs): .518 Bum Phillips (11 yrs): .516 Here are the records/winning percentages, for NFL Head Coaches who made more than one SB, prior to their first SB appearance (there are 35 other guys who made it to a single SB, but I didn't have the time/energy to include all of them---but this should at least give you an idea of whatever you were looking for): [I did not include the four coaches who started coaching well before the Super Bowl era. McDermott is 62-35 .639 for reference.] McVay 11-5 .688 Cowher 32-16 .666 Reid 51-29 .654 Tomlin 10-6 .625 Reeves 45-28 .616 Holmgren 38-26 .594 Flores 9-7 .563 Shanahan 29-23 .558 Coughlin 93-83 .528 Carroll 58-54 .518 Gibbs 8-8 .500 Johnson 29-29 .500 Vermeil 29-31 .483 Levy 61-66 .480 Noll 33-37 .471 Parcells 22-25 .468 Belichick 45-55 .450 Grant 11-14 .440 Fox 7-9 .438 Walsh 8-24 .250 Not sure if this adds up to anything---you'll have to tell me WF. But I had fun crunching the numbers for you. Edited July 13, 2023 by folz Quote
hondo in seattle Posted July 13, 2023 Posted July 13, 2023 15 hours ago, folz said: Nice work! Random thoughts... Blanton Collier being listed as a non-winner is a little misleading. He won the NFL championship with the Browns in 1964, before there was a Super Bowl. Had there been a SB that year, the Browns would have been heavy favorites. Marty Shottenheimer is a sad story. 21 years at .631 - you'd think he'd have at least one trophy to his name. Don Coryell win percentage was good but not fabulous: .572. But he would probably be in HOF if he had picked up a Lombardi in his 12 years. Still belongs in Canton because of his contributions to the passing game. Chuck Knox has the 10th most wins in NFL history. As Buffalo luck would have it, none of those wins was a SB. Quote
folz Posted July 13, 2023 Posted July 13, 2023 39 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: Nice work! Random thoughts... Blanton Collier being listed as a non-winner is a little misleading. He won the NFL championship with the Browns in 1964, before there was a Super Bowl. Had there been a SB that year, the Browns would have been heavy favorites. Marty Shottenheimer is a sad story. 21 years at .631 - you'd think he'd have at least one trophy to his name. Don Coryell win percentage was good but not fabulous: .572. But he would probably be in HOF if he had picked up a Lombardi in his 12 years. Still belongs in Canton because of his contributions to the passing game. Chuck Knox has the 10th most wins in NFL history. As Buffalo luck would have it, none of those wins was a SB. Yeah, I shouldn't have included Blanton Collier. Good catch. Agree on Coryell. Should be in the HOF regardless of no ring. If Chuck Knox didn't return to the Rams for those last 3 years, he'd still be 13th overall in wins, have a .600 career win %, and in 19 years---13 winning seasons and 11 playoff berths. Great coach, but his 7-11 playoff record hurt him. 1 Quote
Chaos Posted July 13, 2023 Posted July 13, 2023 17 hours ago, folz said: Matt LaFleur (4 yrs): .712 Blanton Collier (8 yrs): .691 Sean McDermott (6 yrs): .639 Marty Shottenheimer (21 yrs): .613 Mike Sherman (6 yrs): .594 Mike Smith (7 yrs): .589 Mike Vrabel (5yrs): .585 Don Coryell (14 yrs): .572 Wade Phillips (12 yrs): .562 Mike Zimmer (8 yrs): .562 Jason Garrett (10 yrs): .559 Chuck Knox (22 yrs): .558 Joe Schmidt (6 yrs): .558 Chuck Pagano (6 yrs): .552 Frank Reich (5 yrs): .547 Jerry Burns (6 yrs): .547 Dennis Green (13 yrs): .546 Jim Mora (15 yrs): .541 Chuck Fairbanks (6 yrs): .541 Jack Pardee (11 yrs): .530 Brad Childress (5 yrs): .527 John Robinson (9 yrs): .524 Matt Nagy (4 yrs): .523 Bill O'Brien (7 yrs): .520 Kevin Stefanski (3 yrs): .520 Art Shell (5 yrs): .519 Ron Meyer (9 yrs): .519 Marvin Lewis (16 yrs): .518 Steve Mariucci (9 yrs): .518 Bum Phillips (11 yrs): .516 Only one of these guys had a future HOF QB on their team for at least 5 seasons. Quote
folz Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 7 hours ago, Chaos said: Only one of these guys had a future HOF QB on their team for at least 5 seasons. You guys continue to try and set parameters to fit what you want to prove (and yet there are still a couple of exceptions to your statement---see below). And sure, some of the guys on that list didn't have great luck with QBs (not every head coach does---especially on a list of guys who didn't make a SB), but let's not pretend that none of them had anything to work with at QB: Mike Sherman had Brett Favre (HOF) for 6 years Don Coryell had Dan Fouts (HOF) for 9 years Matt LaFleur had Aaron Rodgers (*HOF) for 4 years Chuck Pagano had Andrew Luck for 5 years Jim Mora had Peyton Manning (HOF) for 4 years Jack Pardee had Joe Thiesman (HOF) for 3 years and Warren Moon (HOF) for 4 years Marty Shottenheimer had Bernie Kosar for 4 years, Joe Montana (HOF) for 2 years, Drew Brees (*HOF) for 4 years, and Philip Rivers for 1 year Steve Mariucci had Steve Young (HOF) for 3 years and Jeff Garcia for 5 years Dennis Green had Warren Moon (HOF) for 3 years and Kurt Warner for 2 years Chuck Knox had Dave Krieg for 8 years and Joe Ferguson for 3 years Marvin Lewis had Jon Kitna 2 years, Carson Palmer 7 years, and Andy Dalton for 8 years Bum Philips had Archie Manning 1 year, Dan Pastorini for 5 years, and Ken Stabler for 3 years. Wade Philips had John Elway (HOF) for 2 years and Tony Romo for 4 years Mike Smith had Matt Ryan for 7 years Jason Garrett had Tony Romo for 6 years and Dak Prescott for 4 years *Future Hall of Famer Obviously not all of those QBs equate to Josh. But then posters like you always seem to forget how raw Josh was coming into the league too. His first two years were seriously on the job training. It wasn't 5 years of automatic HOF QBing from Josh for McDermott. Really, isn't 3-4 years of a HOF QB in their prime just as good (or better) than 5 years of Josh, when you weigh in his first two seasons? He wasn't bad, but how could you equate his rookie year to say Brett Favre's 10th year in the league, or Warren Moon's 12th year, or Joe Montana's...etc. 1 1 1 Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 5 hours ago, folz said: You guys continue to try and set parameters to fit what you want to prove (and yet there are still a couple of exceptions to your statement---see below). And sure, some of the guys on that list didn't have great luck with QBs (not every head coach does---especially on a list of guys who didn't make a SB), but let's not pretend that none of them had anything to work with at QB: Mike Sherman had Brett Favre (HOF) for 6 years Don Coryell had Dan Fouts (HOF) for 9 years Matt LaFleur had Aaron Rodgers (*HOF) for 4 years Chuck Pagano had Andrew Luck for 5 years Jim Mora had Peyton Manning (HOF) for 4 years Jack Pardee had Joe Thiesman (HOF) for 3 years and Warren Moon (HOF) for 4 years Marty Shottenheimer had Bernie Kosar for 4 years, Joe Montana (HOF) for 2 years, Drew Brees (*HOF) for 4 years, and Philip Rivers for 1 year Steve Mariucci had Steve Young (HOF) for 3 years and Jeff Garcia for 5 years Dennis Green had Warren Moon (HOF) for 3 years and Kurt Warner for 2 years Chuck Knox had Dave Krieg for 8 years and Joe Ferguson for 3 years Marvin Lewis had Jon Kitna 2 years, Carson Palmer 7 years, and Andy Dalton for 8 years Bum Philips had Archie Manning 1 year, Dan Pastorini for 5 years, and Ken Stabler for 3 years. Wade Philips had John Elway (HOF) for 2 years and Tony Romo for 4 years Mike Smith had Matt Ryan for 7 years Jason Garrett had Tony Romo for 6 years and Dak Prescott for 4 years *Future Hall of Famer Obviously not all of those QBs equate to Josh. But then posters like you always seem to forget how raw Josh was coming into the league too. His first two years were seriously on the job training. It wasn't 5 years of automatic HOF QBing from Josh for McDermott. Really, isn't 3-4 years of a HOF QB in their prime just as good (or better) than 5 years of Josh, when you weigh in his first two seasons? He wasn't bad, but how could you equate his rookie year to say Brett Favre's 10th year in the league, or Warren Moon's 12th year, or Joe Montana's...etc. 1 1 Quote
Shaw66 Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 18 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: Nice work! Random thoughts... Blanton Collier being listed as a non-winner is a little misleading. He won the NFL championship with the Browns in 1964, before there was a Super Bowl. Had there been a SB that year, the Browns would have been heavy favorites. Yes, the Browns would have been heavy favorites, but the Bills may actually have won that Super Bowl. Their defense was outstanding that year, nand the Bills had the second best running in pro football. It would have been an interesting matchup. Quote
machine gun kelly Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 On 6/24/2023 at 4:40 PM, MJS said: McDermott hasn't had even one down year unless you want to count Allen's rookie season. And that was to rebuild the team cutting bloated contract players. They were textbook, win by the skin of you’re teeth, reduce, restructure, release players, find you’re franchise QB, build lines on both sides of the ball, and then create depth. 1 Quote
machine gun kelly Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 On 6/24/2023 at 4:40 PM, MJS said: McDermott hasn't had even one down year unless you want to count Allen's rookie season. Yep, he and Beane scraped into the playoffs with a mediocre team. Purges bad contracts and slowly built the team up the right way. Get your franchise QB, build up your lines, focus on weapons and add depth. 62 and 29 I think a lot of fan bases would take. That doesn’t mean I’m not thinking we’ve got to get closer to winning the AFCCG, and shal I whisper it win it all. 31 teams are disappointed every year. 1 Quote
Chaos Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 9 hours ago, folz said: You guys continue to try and set parameters to fit what you want to prove (and yet there are still a couple of exceptions to your statement---see below). And sure, some of the guys on that list didn't have great luck with QBs (not every head coach does---especially on a list of guys who didn't make a SB), but let's not pretend that none of them had anything to work with at QB: Mike Sherman had Brett Favre (HOF) for 6 years Don Coryell had Dan Fouts (HOF) for 9 years Matt LaFleur had Aaron Rodgers (*HOF) for 4 years Chuck Pagano had Andrew Luck for 5 years Jim Mora had Peyton Manning (HOF) for 4 years Jack Pardee had Joe Thiesman (HOF) for 3 years and Warren Moon (HOF) for 4 years Marty Shottenheimer had Bernie Kosar for 4 years, Joe Montana (HOF) for 2 years, Drew Brees (*HOF) for 4 years, and Philip Rivers for 1 year Steve Mariucci had Steve Young (HOF) for 3 years and Jeff Garcia for 5 years Dennis Green had Warren Moon (HOF) for 3 years and Kurt Warner for 2 years Chuck Knox had Dave Krieg for 8 years and Joe Ferguson for 3 years Marvin Lewis had Jon Kitna 2 years, Carson Palmer 7 years, and Andy Dalton for 8 years Bum Philips had Archie Manning 1 year, Dan Pastorini for 5 years, and Ken Stabler for 3 years. Wade Philips had John Elway (HOF) for 2 years and Tony Romo for 4 years Mike Smith had Matt Ryan for 7 years Jason Garrett had Tony Romo for 6 years and Dak Prescott for 4 years *Future Hall of Famer Obviously not all of those QBs equate to Josh. But then posters like you always seem to forget how raw Josh was coming into the league too. His first two years were seriously on the job training. It wasn't 5 years of automatic HOF QBing from Josh for McDermott. Really, isn't 3-4 years of a HOF QB in their prime just as good (or better) than 5 years of Josh, when you weigh in his first two seasons? He wasn't bad, but how could you equate his rookie year to say Brett Favre's 10th year in the league, or Warren Moon's 12th year, or Joe Montana's...etc. I concede and am willing to consider McDermott on the same level as Mike Sherman and Coryell Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 On 7/11/2023 at 9:08 PM, Chaos said: McDermott took over a Bills team that went 8-8 in 2015 and 7-9 in 2016 and went 9-7 in 2017. Then he got Josh Allen. Some people seem to think he took a team that was winless and then went on a deep playoff run with Tyrod Taylor. Reality is he was one win better his first season than Rex Ryan was his first season with the Bills No one thinks that because we know we lost in the 1st round that year. Reality is that this comparison or whatever it is doesn't mean much. Quote
GunnerBill Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 On 7/12/2023 at 2:08 AM, Chaos said: McDermott took over a Bills team that went 8-8 in 2015 and 7-9 in 2016 and went 9-7 in 2017. Then he got Josh Allen. Some people seem to think he took a team that was winless and then went on a deep playoff run with Tyrod Taylor. Reality is he was one win better his first season than Rex Ryan was his first season with the Bills The 2017 roster was not the 2015 roster though. The 2015 roster QB apart is one of the strongest the Bills have had. 1 Quote
Gregg Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said: Yep, he and Beane scraped into the playoffs with a mediocre team. Purges bad contracts and slowly built the team up the right way. Get your franchise QB, build up your lines, focus on weapons and add depth. 62 and 29 I think a lot of fan bases would take. That doesn’t mean I’m not thinking we’ve got to get closer to winning the AFCCG, and shal I whisper it win it all. 31 teams are disappointed every year. Still waiting for Beane and McDermott to do this. Hopefully this year shows improvement but so far it hasn't been good. Granted the Miller injury did hurt the DL. The OL has been a disaster. 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 Sean McDermott has a very good win% in the regular season this is not news Quote
Augie Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 (edited) 10 hours ago, folz said: You guys continue to try and set parameters to fit what you want to prove (and yet there are still a couple of exceptions to your statement---see below). And sure, some of the guys on that list didn't have great luck with QBs (not every head coach does---especially on a list of guys who didn't make a SB), but let's not pretend that none of them had anything to work with at QB: Mike Sherman had Brett Favre (HOF) for 6 years Don Coryell had Dan Fouts (HOF) for 9 years Matt LaFleur had Aaron Rodgers (*HOF) for 4 years Chuck Pagano had Andrew Luck for 5 years Jim Mora had Peyton Manning (HOF) for 4 years Jack Pardee had Joe Thiesman (HOF) for 3 years and Warren Moon (HOF) for 4 years Marty Shottenheimer had Bernie Kosar for 4 years, Joe Montana (HOF) for 2 years, Drew Brees (*HOF) for 4 years, and Philip Rivers for 1 year Steve Mariucci had Steve Young (HOF) for 3 years and Jeff Garcia for 5 years Dennis Green had Warren Moon (HOF) for 3 years and Kurt Warner for 2 years Chuck Knox had Dave Krieg for 8 years and Joe Ferguson for 3 years Marvin Lewis had Jon Kitna 2 years, Carson Palmer 7 years, and Andy Dalton for 8 years Bum Philips had Archie Manning 1 year, Dan Pastorini for 5 years, and Ken Stabler for 3 years. Wade Philips had John Elway (HOF) for 2 years and Tony Romo for 4 years Mike Smith had Matt Ryan for 7 years Jason Garrett had Tony Romo for 6 years and Dak Prescott for 4 years *Future Hall of Famer Obviously not all of those QBs equate to Josh. But then posters like you always seem to forget how raw Josh was coming into the league too. His first two years were seriously on the job training. It wasn't 5 years of automatic HOF QBing from Josh for McDermott. Really, isn't 3-4 years of a HOF QB in their prime just as good (or better) than 5 years of Josh, when you weigh in his first two seasons? He wasn't bad, but how could you equate his rookie year to say Brett Favre's 10th year in the league, or Warren Moon's 12th year, or Joe Montana's...etc. People (some, at least) don’t want to give McD credit for anything the Bills do with Josh. “He’s got a franchise QB doing all the heavy lifting!” Does anyone get credit for identifying the potential of a SUPER RAW prospect, then developing a staff and QB (and the REST of the team) to get to that level of success? I’m sure there are QB’s who had a ton of talent, but never reached that upper level. It’s a whole bunch of things that get you to the pinnacle - but if it doesn’t support the “McD just wins because of Josh” narrative it just gets ignored or we have to go looking for the goalposts again! . Edited July 14, 2023 by Augie 2 Quote
GoBills808 Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 17 minutes ago, Augie said: People (some, at least) don’t want to give McD credit for anything the Bills do with Josh. “He’s got a franchise QB doing all the heavy lifting!” Does anyone get credit for identifying the potential of a SUPER RAW prospect, then developing a staff and QB (and the REST of the team) to get to that level of success? I’m sure there are QB’s who had a ton of talent, but never reached that upper level. It’s a whole bunch of things that get you to the pinnacle - but if it doesn’t support the “McD just wins because of Josh” narrative it just gets ignored or we have to go looking for the goalposts again! . Speaking of moving the goal posts did you just try to give McDermott credit for drafting Allen 😂😂😂 1 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Shaw66 said: Yes, the Browns would have been heavy favorites, but the Bills may actually have won that Super Bowl. Their defense was outstanding that year, nand the Bills had the second best running in pro football. It would have been an interesting matchup. I agree. That's why I didn't say the Browns would have surely won. The Bills had a chance. I remember Larry Felser saying Cookie in his prime was as good as Jim Brown. And the Bills' incredible run D would have slowed Brown down if they had played. If only the Super Bowl had started two years earlier - we would have had two appearances and maybe a championship to show for it. And maybe an early SB victory would have changed the trajectory of the franchise. Quote
Augie Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, GoBills808 said: Speaking of moving the goal posts did you just try to give McDermott credit for drafting Allen 😂😂😂 Speaking of missing the point, it’s a whole bunch of things, and McD is one. He arrived in 2017, with josh drafted in 2018. So YES, he was A PART of drafting Allen. But I don’t like to put all the credit or all the blame in one place, because that would be ignorant and simple minded. It’s not that easy or simple. NOW, go back and count how many times the parameters have changed since this silly thread was started. One correct answer would be “plenty”. A better answer would be “too many.” This is sports, people. It is not a math equation. The entire premise from the beginning was biased, and that has been proven over and over. . . Edited July 14, 2023 by Augie 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, Augie said: Speaking of missing the point, it’s a whole bunch of things, and McD is one. He arrived in 2017, with josh drafted in 2018. So yes, he was A PART of that. But I don’t like to put all the credit or all the blame in one place, because that would be ignorant and simple minded. It’s not that easy or simple. NOW, go back and count how many times the parameters have changed since this silly thread was started. One correct answer would be “plenty”. This is sports, people. It is not a math equation. The entire premise from the beginning was biased, and that has been proven over and over. . . is it my ignorance and simplemindedness or do i distinctly remember Sean McDermott naming Nathan Peterman starter over Josh Allen lol but yes we must always try to give credit where it's due Quote
Augie Posted July 14, 2023 Posted July 14, 2023 Just now, GoBills808 said: is it my ignorance and simplemindedness or do i distinctly remember Sean McDermott naming Nathan Peterman starter over Josh Allen lol but yes we must always try to give credit where it's due As badly as that turned out, I had no problem with it at the time, and I still don’t. Sure, it always looks clear with the benefit of your 20/20 hindsight. Is he the first or only HC who tried to protect a rookie QB coming into the league, especially one with such raw skills. This was pretty much SOP for ages, and still exists in some situations. You realize that, right? IF McD had started him from day 1, maybe he’s not the player he is today. Maybe he deserves credit for that? I’m not arguing that, just saying we’ll never know, and that includes you. I try to be fair and balanced, some have an agenda and try to twist everything to fit that. . 1 Quote
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