How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

Don't even bother man. The guy thinks that the cost of production is higher in 2023 than 1990 and won't be told otherwise. 

 

Yes, consider who is agreeing with you @oldmanfan. This poster, who agrees with you, can not grasp how inflation over the past 23 years has made the cost to print newspapers higher now (due to inflation of ink, salaries, paper, delivery vehicles, etc) now than in 1990.

 

Think about that and the brainiacs that agree with you. May be enough to make you realize some things.

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

This is such a stupid statistic. You really think the owner should base his decision making not on the performance of the coaching staff but on the past record of other coaches? 😂

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't even bother man. The guy thinks that the cost of production is higher in 2023 than 1990 and won't be told otherwise. How is he ever going to accept that he has bias towards our current HC without evidence despite his posting history knocking the HC consistently. 😂

It has nothing to do w the owner's decisions 

 

It's (arguably) relevant to a prediction about McDermott's chances re: winning a Super Bowl in Buffalo

[folz]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I know, it's how we support our arguments

 

Like I could go through McDermott's win% and ask how many other coaches lucked into one of the weakest divisions sans Brady or were saddled w bad owners or a bad GM or no QB or whatever...but that's reductive. As valid as your line of questioning but just noise imo. There are easy criticisms of every method we can use to judge...the merits of your argument have to rest in your competence in explaining yourself, not how many holes you think you're poking in the other guy's logic.

 

Just because you don't choose to accept the merits of someone else's argument, doesn't mean they haven't put forth an argument with merit (which I think has been done by many throughout this thread). There are many reasons for wanting to keep McD and thinking a SB is still possible:

 

Ended 17-year playoff drought

.639 overall win percentage (21st overall of all coaches who ever coached in the NFL)

3 AFC East titles

Playoff berth 5 out of 6 years (one with Tyrod Taylor as QB)

1 AFC Championship appearance

Great culture, great locker room/team camaraderie

Continuity of systems and personnel (not having to reboot with new schemes, new coaches, etc.)

Family atmosphere among team and between team and fans

Free agents want to come to Buffalo now

Players want to come back to Buffalo after they have left

McD brought Beane here

In turn, they brought Josh here

It was Sean's staff and culture that groomed Josh

Josh backs McD

This year's team is probably the deepest we've had since the 90s SB era

He moved on from Frasier

I cut him a lot of slack for how last year ended because I understand that a football team is made up of human beings who can only take so much at one time.

ETC.

 

And in earlier posts, I showed a list of many Head Coaches who have made and won a Super Bowl after their 6th year of coaching. (But apparently, the standard is now that he has to have had the same QB and be with the same team).

 

Sure, you too can poke holes in each of my arguments above, but don't act like McD supporters don't have a leg to stand on. Here's a stat to look up, how many coaches were fired after 4 consecutive 10 win seasons and a playoff berth each of those years? How many coaches were fired after a 3-year stretch with a 37-12 record, with the most recent season being 13-3/14-4?

 

You can hold on to the 5 year QB/HC stat, it just doesn't sway me to want to move on from McDermott, or make me believe it is impossible for him to win a SB.

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by folz

[What a Tuel]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

It has nothing to do w the owner's decisions 

 

It's (arguably) relevant to a prediction about McDermott's chances re: winning a Super Bowl in Buffalo

 

It has everything to do with the owner's decisions because you say there is value in considering this to determine McDermott's future value.

 

Either there is value in this statistic or there isn't. 

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yes, consider who is agreeing with you @oldmanfan. This poster, who agrees with you, can not grasp how inflation over the past 23 years has made the cost to print newspapers higher now (due to inflation of ink, salaries, paper, delivery vehicles, etc) now than in 1990.

 

Think about that and the brainiacs that agree with you. May be enough to make you realize some things.

 

😂 I just can't even with you man. You made the claim, and you are SO SO big on proof from what I understand, so prove to me in the other thread that a newspaper costs more to produce 2023 than 1990 without quoting random commodity prices. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Just because you don't choose to accept the merits of someone else's argument, doesn't mean they haven't put forth an argument with merit (which I think has been done by many throughout this thread). There are many reasons for wanting to keep McD and thinking a SB is still possible:

 

Ended 17-year playoff drought

.639 overall win percentage (21st overall of all coaches who ever coached in the NFL)

3 AFC East titles

Playoff berth 5 out of 6 years (one with Tyrod Taylor as QB)

1 AFC Championship appearance

Great culture, great locker room/team camaraderie

Continuity of systems and personnel (not having to reboot with new schemes, new coaches, etc.)

Family atmosphere among team and between team and fans

Free agents want to come to Buffalo now

Players want to come back to Buffalo after they have left

McD brought Beane here

In turn, they brought Josh here

It was Sean's staff and culture that groomed Josh

Josh backs McD

This year's team is probably the deepest we've had since the 90s SB era

He moved on from Frasier

I cut him a lot of slack for how last year ended because I understand that a football team is made up of human beings who can only take so much at one time.

ETC.

 

And in earlier posts, I showed a list of many Head Coaches who have made and won a Super Bowl after their 6th year of coaching. (But now the standard is he has to have the same QB and be with the same team).

 

Sure, you too can poke holes in each of my arguments above, but don't act like McD supports don't have any leg to stand on. Here's a stat to look up, how many coaches were fired after 4 consecutive 10 win seasons and a playoff berth each of those years? How many coaches were fired after a 3-year stretch with a 37-12 record, with the most recent season being 13-3/14-4?

 

You can hold on to the 5 year QB/HC stat, it just doesn't sway me to want to move on from McDermott, or make me believe it is impossible for him to win a SB.

 

You must have missed the guy who keeps demanding a peer review, audit, and double blind study 

 

And the reason for being on the same team is because folks don't care if McDermott wins a Super Bowl for another team, we are Bills fans not Sean McDermott fans I assume

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 I just can't even with you man. You made the claim, and you are SO SO big on proof from what I understand, so prove to me in the other thread that a newspaper costs more to produce 2023 than 1990 without quoting random commodity prices.

 

You not understanding inflation has truly opened my eyes. Our public school system is a disaster.

 

[Mikie2times]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It has nothing to do w the owner's decisions 

 

It's (arguably) relevant to a prediction about McDermott's chances re: winning a Super Bowl in Buffalo

It would be interesting (maybe I will break it down eventually) to see the outcome of the coaches that weren't fired. Who they were and what was the nature of the situation. Also, is it first five seasons for both coach and player? I tend to agree that McDermott is starting to be on the wrong side of the odds, but it's still interesting to consider some coaches and the situations they found themselves in that almost ended this stat. 

 

John Madden- Started coaching in 1969 with Lamonica at QB. Stabler joined in 1970 starting in 1973. Made the playoff every year but 1971 and his final year coaching. Winning a Super Bowl in his 8th season as a head coach with 6 early playoff departures

 

Tony Dungy- He won it the 5th year and damn was it close. By that point he had 8 previous playoff departures. 

 

These guys have an interest to me in regards to the stat being discussed because both came within a fraction of that stat no longer existing (Madden might actually nullify it depending on the criteria you use). What is the common thread with both coaches? They played in the same era as a Dynasty. Madden couldn't overcome the Steelers. Dungy couldn't overcome the Patriots. Now we have to deal with the Chiefs. I think if we dig into the history of this stat and the ones that failed we will find a lot of teams that shouldn't have won. Teams that just matched up against other teams that were flat out better. Which maybe they look back at us one day and say the same thing. I sure as hell hope not. 

 

Full disclosure, I have no horse in this conversation. I like the discussion it brings. You have two passionate sides. Neither knows for sure. All we can do is discuss the history as many have. It's made for decent conversation.  

Edited July 10, 2023 by Mikie2times

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

It has everything to do with the owner's decisions because you say there is value in considering this to determine McDermott's future value.

 

Either there is value in this statistic or there isn't. 

 

😂 I just can't even with you man. You made the claim, and you are SO SO big on proof from what I understand, so prove to me in the other thread that a newspaper costs more to produce 2023 than 1990 without quoting random commodity prices. 

 

 

Not exactly or even necessarily 

 

Maybe the Pegulas are happy w a stable, relatively successful franchise and don't need a Super Bowl victory for validation as has been claimed by several posters. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

It would be interesting (maybe I will break it down eventually) to see the outcome of the coaches that weren't fired. Who they were and what was the nature of the situation. Also, is it first five seasons for both coach and player? I tend to agree that McDermott is starting to be on the wrong side of the odds, but it's still interesting to consider some coaches and the situations they found themselves in that almost ended this stat. 

 

John Madden- Started coaching in 1969 with Lamonica at QB. Stabler joined in 1970 starting in 1973. Made the playoff every year but 1971 and his final year coaching. Winning a Super Bowl in his 8th season as a head coach with 6 early playoff departures

 

Tony Dungy- He won it the 5th year and damn was it close. By that point he had 8 previous playoff departures. 

 

These guys have an interest to me in regards to the stat being discussed because both came within a fraction of that stat no longer existing (Madden might actually nullify it depending on the criteria you use). What is the common thread with both coaches? They played in the same era as a Dynasty. Madden couldn't overcome the Steelers. Dungy couldn't overcome the Patriots. Now have to deal with the Chiefs. I think if we dig into the history of this stat and the ones that failed we will find a lot of teams that shouldn't have won. Teams that just matched up against other teams that were flat out better. Which maybe they look back at us one day and say the same thing. I sure as hell hope not. 

 

Full disclosure, I have no horse in this conversation. I like the discussion it brings. You have two passionate sides. Neither knows for sure. All we can do is discuss the history as many have. It's made for decent conversation.  

The dynasty angle is probably relevant and I haven't looked into it👍👍

 

Tomlin/Roethlisberger got theirs the year Brady did his knee iirc

 

Maybe that's the fate of Allen/McDermott as well but they'd better hurry up is all in saying

 

 

[What a Tuel]

10 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You not understanding inflation has truly opened my eyes. Our public school system is a disaster.

 

 

Im not getting into it here. You already hijacked one thread with your poor understanding of inflation.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Einstein said:

Everything stat has external factors. But we (as humans) tend to only bring up those external factors when it suits us.

 

For example, why do we even mention INT totals for bad QB's? Weather, game plan, tipped passes, etc all are factors that could change this statistic. 

 

Another example is test scores. We  use standardized test scores to measure the performance of a student? After all, external factors such as socio-economic status, parental education levels, language barriers, quality of teaching, and even the student's health and nutrition can significantly affect these scores. That persons not dumb, they're just unhealthy!

 

And why blame weight gain on poor eating habits? Numerous other factors like metabolism, genetics, mental health, medications, and socioeconomic status also play a huge role. That person's not fat, they're just poor!

 

We can "external factor" our way out of every statistic to ever exist if we wanted to.

 

Sometimes those factors are relevant and sometimes they are not. Nothing anyone has said in this thread has even got close to demonstrating causation. 

 

None of the other examples given are anything like the example we are talking about. Because in all those other cases people have been able to look at the pattern, investigate the commonalities and ascertain the extent to which there is a causation. Whereas nobody has provided any such analysis here. 

6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

It’s particular important because it tells us owners have a short leash on HC’s once the team has a franchise QB. 
 

That’s the history. That’s why the stat exists.

 

If more franchises were run like Philly when Reid was there and given 14 seasons with 10 consecutive seasons with McMabb as the starting QB (despite no Super Bowl victory anyway) we would likely have a handful of HC/QB combos with rings well past season 5 together. 

 

But Reid and McNabb were a very rare combo that stayed together for a long time. And still they never got their ring. 
 

Elway and Dan Reeves may have won a ring together eventually if they were together for all of Elway’s 16 seasons. 
 

As it was, they lasted 10 seasons together just like McNabb and Reid. 
 

I think McDermott and Allen are likely to follow the Reeves and Reid model and last 10 seasons together even without a ring. But staying together that long is often the exception. Would be hard to think McDermott’s seat would not be on fire come season 8 and 9. 
 

The key will be staying competitive in the postseason. Got to get back to a conference championship game again in at least one of the next three seasons I think to keep his seat cool.
 

 

The causation is simply the tendency for owners to become impatient. 
 

I agree, simply year to year the Bills or any other team have as good a chance to win the Super Bowl as any other year. 
 

What increases as the years go by is the chance the owner / GM pulls the plug.

 

Extreme patience seems to be about 10 years and even in those rare examples the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl was unsuccessful.

 

So I agree with that. Unfortunately that isn't causation either. 

 

And what Reid and Reeves have in common is they were fired after missing the playoffs. In Reid's case his final 2 years and in Reeves' case 3 of his final 5. If McDermott did that he'd be fired. No doubt. But in neither of those cases did patience just expire. In both the results took a significant donwturn. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Einstein said:

What data supports that McDermott is a good in-game strategist?

 

It was posted in a thread the other day. His 4th down decision making in terms of impact above expected on results he was *I think* 6th in the NFL and one of only a handful who was in the positive on that metric. Maybe someone else will remember where exactly it was posted.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, folz said:

And in earlier posts, I showed a list of many Head Coaches who have made and won a Super Bowl after their 6th year of coaching. (But apparently, the standard is now that he has to have had the same QB and be with the same team).

 

 

Allen is not going anywhere until he decides to retire and McDermott winning a Super Bowl with another team doesn't help the Bills any so that actually makes a ton of sense.

 

Will be interesting to see what happens with Taylor and Burrow. They have two years to win before the end of year number 5. You would think between Allen and McDermott and Burrow and Taylor one of them will snap the 5+year streak. 

[GoBills808]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was posted in a thread the other day. His 4th down decision making in terms of impact above expected on results he was *I think* 6th in the NFL and one of only a handful who was in the positive on that metric. Maybe someone else will remember where exactly it was posted.

If I was inclined to argue like you guys do it would be very easy to point out how hypocritical it is to claim one single data point regarding 4th down EV is proof Sean McDermott is a good in-game coach😂😂

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, folz said:

Sure, you too can poke holes in each of my arguments above, but don't act like McD supporters don't have a leg to stand on. Here's a stat to look up, how many coaches were fired after 4 consecutive 10 win seasons and a playoff berth each of those years? How many coaches were fired after a 3-year stretch with a 37-12 record, with the most recent season being 13-3/14-4?

 

The Broncos fired John Fox in 2015 after three consecutive division titles going 13-3, 13-3, 12-4 respectively (good for 38-10 over a 3-year stretch) but being under .500 in the postseason. Guess what happened the very next season lol

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

If I was inclined to argue like you guys do it would be very easy to point out how hypocritical it is to claim one single data point regarding 4th down EV is proof Sean McDermott is a good in-game coach😂😂

 

But might be proof that he isn't "terrible at it" which was the point I was disagreeing with. 

[wakingfane]

I am a huge McDermott fan but this thread does actually make me concerned / raise the eyebrows a bit.  I would be interested to factor in each coach's win loss record up to the year they made the Super Bowl as well. And who are the highest win loss percentage coach's who NEVER actually made the Super Bowl. Just based on name and reputation, would you fire them too?? Sure, every case is individual and unique and there's always an anomaly to the trend, but seriously, just look at the company McD is in within this chart and it's not inspiring.  

[hondo in seattle]

Years ago, a new coach was hired for an ailing basketball program.  The coach quickly turned the team around and got them into the playoffs.  Unfortunately, he seemed to have no knack for playoff competition.  His team was consistently outcoached and outplayed when it became win-or-go-home.  Although the team was winning more regular season games than before, some fans wanted the coach fired.  The goal wasn't a playoff appearance.  The goal was a championship and the coach wasn't delivering one.  They had waited 15 years with this clown.  If he was going to win a championship, he would have won one by now.  Time for a change, they said.

 

Well, Coach Wooden finally gave them a championship.   In fact, he gave them 10 national championships in a period of 12 years.  Happily, the UCLA AD hadn't listened to the fans who had wanted Wooden's head.

 

To win a Lombardi, you need a good roster and you need a good coach.  But you need the stars to align, too.  Because there are variables outside the coach's control, there is no one path for coaches to get to the championship.  There are guys like Pederson who won the Super Bowl in his 2nd year as a head coach and then fell into sustained mediocrity.  And then there are guys like Andy Reid, who didn't win the Lombardi till his 21st season but has won twice now.  

 

 

[Chaos]

On 7/9/2023 at 10:16 PM, folz said:

 

Just because you don't choose to accept the merits of someone else's argument, doesn't mean they haven't put forth an argument with merit (which I think has been done by many throughout this thread). There are many reasons for wanting to keep McD and thinking a SB is still possible:

 

Ended 17-year playoff drought

.639 overall win percentage (21st overall of all coaches who ever coached in the NFL)

3 AFC East titles

Playoff berth 5 out of 6 years (one with Tyrod Taylor as QB)

1 AFC Championship appearance

Great culture, great locker room/team camaraderie

Continuity of systems and personnel (not having to reboot with new schemes, new coaches, etc.)

Family atmosphere among team and between team and fans

Free agents want to come to Buffalo now

Players want to come back to Buffalo after they have left

McD brought Beane here

In turn, they brought Josh here

It was Sean's staff and culture that groomed Josh

Josh backs McD

This year's team is probably the deepest we've had since the 90s SB era

He moved on from Frasier

I cut him a lot of slack for how last year ended because I understand that a football team is made up of human beings who can only take so much at one time.

ETC.

 

And in earlier posts, I showed a list of many Head Coaches who have made and won a Super Bowl after their 6th year of coaching. (But apparently, the standard is now that he has to have had the same QB and be with the same team).

 

Sure, you too can poke holes in each of my arguments above, but don't act like McD supporters don't have a leg to stand on. Here's a stat to look up, how many coaches were fired after 4 consecutive 10 win seasons and a playoff berth each of those years? How many coaches were fired after a 3-year stretch with a 37-12 record, with the most recent season being 13-3/14-4?

 

You can hold on to the 5 year QB/HC stat, it just doesn't sway me to want to move on from McDermott, or make me believe it is impossible for him to win a SB.

 

McDermott took over a Bills team that went 8-8 in 2015 and 7-9 in 2016 and went 9-7 in 2017.   Then he got Josh Allen.   Some people seem to think he took a team that was winless and then went on a deep playoff run with Tyrod Taylor.  Reality is he was one win better his first season than Rex Ryan was his first season with the Bills 

[Nextmanup]

12 hours ago, Chaos said:

McDermott took over a Bills team that went 8-8 in 2015 and 7-9 in 2016 and went 9-7 in 2017.   Then he got Josh Allen.   Some people seem to think he took a team that was winless and then went on a deep playoff run with Tyrod Taylor.  Reality is he was one win better his first season than Rex Ryan was his first season with the Bills 

This is a point I've made here several times.

 

I am NOT one of the many here who seems to think BB stinks, now that NE is not what it was with Brady.  I think it's obvious he's still the best HC of all time.  And yet look at what he can do without an elite QB.  Not much.

 

That may sound like a defense of McDermott, which I don't really mean it to be.  But folks who somehow assume he is an elite HC b/c he  seems organized, prepared, and has everyone on the same page are mistaken.

 

IMO he belongs in a position within the organization slightly different than "sideline game day boss".  That's what he is not very good at.  He should be "strategic planner and team organizer" with responsibilities that are cut out of the traditional HC position.

 

Or something like that.  HCs in the NFL now actually have about 9 job descriptions they have to do, and the game has evolved to be way too complicated for 1 guy to do all of it.

 

The HC position should be divided into 2 if not 3 positions.