How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, notwoz said:

Boy, you make pretty charts. Can you turn this into a Powerpoint presentation? Now that would be truly enervating.

 

 

It’s much more colorful than his tax returns. Very pretty! It reminds me more of Easter than Christmas. 

[Einstein]

16 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Is John Gruden a great football head coach?

 

Maybe at one point in time.

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Maybe at one point in time.

So you're saying McDermott just needs to be a great coach for one point in time. Cool. Can't wait.

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

So you're saying McDermott just needs to be a great coach for one point in time. Cool. Can't wait.

 

What the data shows is that point in time typically happens within a coaches first 7 years.

[GunnerBill]

I know what the numbers are... but there is just nothing that allows you to draw a conclusion. Every situation in the NFL is so different and so unique. There are so many variables. 

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Every situation in the NFL is so different and so unique. There are so many variables. 

 

Agreed, but those numerous variables and unique circumstances seem to point to a remarkably consistent conclusion when examining the data over a long span of time.

 

Can a coach past year 7 be the outlier? Sure.

 

But that requires faith in a significantly low percentage of success (8%).

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

Agreed, but those numerous variables and unique circumstances seem to point to a remarkably consistent conclusion when examining the data over a long span of time.

 

Can a coach past year 7 be the outlier? Sure.

 

But that requires faith in a significantly low percentage of success (8%).

 

Yea but I just know if any of those past examples have any bearing at all on the Bills now. That causation link just isn't there. 

 

It is interesting data, but it is no more than that. 

[Einstein]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but I just know if any of those past examples have any bearing at all on the Bills now. That causation link just isn't there. 

 

It is interesting data, but it is no more than that. 

 

That’s fair.

[SoMAn]

There was a similar discussion in the same point made during WGR55’s Jeremy White morning show a couple days ago. 
I never called in to make this point, and don’t know if somebody else did since I didn’t listen to the entire show…

But, cherry-picking the first years of a coaching tenure is arbitrary.
How about pointing out that all time great coach, Don Shula coached 27 more seasons after his final Super Bowl win and 16 years after his final appearance in a Super Bowl? How many years has it been since Mike Tomlin appeared in the Super Bowl? How many years has it been since Sean Payton coached his team in a Super Bowl? How about Bill Parcells? 
for these and many more Super Bowl coaches, there were a lot of years that they never made it to the big game, but they were still the same coach (though even more experienced) who got there within the first few years. 

several of those examples occurred when they were less teams to compete with. for years, there were only 28 teams. 
So much of getting to the Super Bowl and winning it in the NFL is a serendipitous combination of several things coming together at the same time, including hitting on key players in the draft, good health, and some good luck along the way. 
 There have been a few dynasties that we all remember, but more often than not Super Bowl champions don’t reach that summit with great frequency after the first appearance. 

 

[Warcodered]

 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

The tenure of Sean McDermott as head coach and the appropriate "leash" to allow him to lead this team to the Super Bowl has been a topic of considerable debate on this forum. While there's a consensus that he deserves additional time, the crux of the argument lies in determining the precise length of this leash.

 

To shed light on this, I conducted a simple data study, examining the trajectory of every NFL head coach who has led their team to the Super Bowl (not necessarily winning, just reaching the final game) over the past 40 NFL seasons.

 

Here is what the data revealed:

 

• On average, it takes a head coach 4.2 seasons to reach his first Super Bowl.

 

• Only 5 coaches in the past 40 years have made their inaugural Super Bowl appearance after 7 seasons of head coaching. This is particularly relevant as Sean McDermott is about to enter his seventh season as head coach

 

• The most frequent timeline for a coach's first Super Bowl appearance is two years, closely followed by five years. This trend suggests that many coaches are capable of assembling a Super Bowl-worthy team within the first 5 years of their tenure (77% of these coaches managed to make the Super Bowl within their first 5 seasons)

 

NOTE: The data is across the coaches entire NFL career. For example, if a coach spent 5 years on his first team, and 4 years on his second team (before making a Super Bowl) the data tallies 9 total seasons prior to his inaugural Super Bowl appearance.

 

NOTE 2: The Sean McDermott line is where McDermott will be after this upcoming season.

 

the chart cuts off some of the names because the list is so long, but the data is there.

On average, how many head coaches have been fired before their 4th year?

[LeGOATski]

26 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

What the data shows is that point in time typically happens within a coaches first 7 years.

That's incorrect. The complete data shows that it typically almost never happens.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, fergie's ire said:

A big problem in NFL is sample size. There actually aren't a huge number of coaches who have gone to the super bowl.  Also, what to make of a coach like Andy Reid?  On the thread about preferred coaches, I think he was number one.  Okay, so he made it within 7 years (his sixth year).  So I guess that makes him a good coach who can make the Super Bowl.  But after that he went 15 (yes, 15) years before reaching another one.  Is he still a good coach who demonstrates he can reach the Super Bowl because he got to one early?  Or is he a coach who can't make because of all those years in the middle?  Would it have been significant if the 15 years were in the beginning rather than the middle?  I'm just not sure.

The correct question is coach / qb combo. With rare exception since the 70s the answer is four years or less

 

[TheWei44]

Appreciate the effort compiling the data and presenting it in a digestible format.  As an economist, a chart like that might be a first step in the analysis.  But as others have stated, there are a bunch of variables that would need to be included to try to "explain" why some coaches reach their first Super Bowl quicker than others.  Some variables to consider: how many years as coordinator or head coach (i.e., coaching experience); whether a defensive or offensive coordinator previously; whether team in playoffs previous season; how many pro bowlers previous season; injury index; etc. etc.  Separately, there's the question of whether a SB appearance is the best way to measure the quality/success of a coach.  

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

Appreciate the effort compiling the data and presenting it in a digestible format.  As an economist, a chart like that might be a first step in the analysis.  But as others have stated, there are a bunch of variables that would need to be included to try to "explain" why some coaches reach their first Super Bowl quicker than others.  Some variables to consider: how many years as coordinator or head coach (i.e., coaching experience); whether a defensive or offensive coordinator previously; whether team in playoffs previous season; how many pro bowlers previous season; injury index; etc. etc.  Separately, there's the question of whether a SB appearance is the best way to measure the quality/success of a coach.  

 

Great ideas for further research.

[HardyBoy]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

The tenure of Sean McDermott as head coach and the appropriate "leash" to allow him to lead this team to the Super Bowl has been a topic of considerable debate on this forum. While there's a consensus that he deserves additional time, the crux of the argument lies in determining the precise length of this leash.

 

To shed light on this, I conducted a simple data study, examining the trajectory of every NFL head coach who has led their team to the Super Bowl (not necessarily winning, just reaching the final game) over the past 40 NFL seasons.

 

Here is what the data revealed:

 

• On average, it takes a head coach 4.2 seasons to reach his first Super Bowl.

 

• Only 5 coaches in the past 40 years have made their inaugural Super Bowl appearance after 7 seasons of head coaching. This is particularly relevant as Sean McDermott is about to enter his seventh season as head coach

 

• The most frequent timeline for a coach's first Super Bowl appearance is two years, closely followed by five years. This trend suggests that many coaches are capable of assembling a Super Bowl-worthy team within the first 5 years of their tenure (77% of these coaches managed to make the Super Bowl within their first 5 seasons)

 

NOTE: The data is across the coaches entire NFL career. For example, if a coach spent 5 years on his first team, and 4 years on his second team (before making a Super Bowl) the data tallies 9 total seasons prior to his inaugural Super Bowl appearance.

 

NOTE 2: The Sean McDermott line is where McDermott will be after this upcoming season.

 

the chart cuts off some of the names because the list is so long, but the data is there.

 

I think it would be helpful if you sorted the graph so the largest numbers are on the left and down to the smallest...maybe lower the opacity a bit on the colors, the colors are jumping out a bit more and I'm focusing on them more than what you are trying to say...very cool though (genuinely!) and I love the dark background!

 

I'll read the rest of the thread now

 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by HardyBoy

[Einstein]

27 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

That's incorrect. The complete data shows that it typically almost never happens.

 

And when it does it typically happens within 7 years.

[teef]

It’s a beautiful Saturday evening, and this is what’s happening. 
 

 

this ***** place. 

[John from Riverside]

I’m confused here honestly it’s not hard to do
 

There are several coaches in the league that never make it to a Super Bowl. Don’t even make it to the playoffs.

 

Should it not be by definition, winning head coaches, and how long it takes them to get to a Super Bowl??

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, BadboyBills said:

Didnt it take Andy Reid 20 years?

 

Reid made it in his 6th season.