How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?

[Einstein]

9 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

LOL. "I'm sick and tired of seeing my team in the playoffs" said no one ever...except Bills fans.

 

You didn’t finish the sentence.

 

”I’m sick and tired of seeing my team in the playoffs after finally acquiring a franchise QB that we waited for for 20 years, only to watch the coaching staff fall short repeatedly”

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

LOL. "I'm sick and tired of seeing my team in the playoffs" said no one ever...except Bills fans.

I think Bengals fans were definitely saying that at the tail end of the Andy Dalton / Marvin Lewis era. 

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

7 seasons.

This is McDermotts 7th season.

 

 

But most of them won that Super Bowl BEFORE year 7.

 

What your stats actually show is that coaches who won a Super Bowl were given a longer leash and therefore had a longer tenure with the team.

 

 

History shows the complete opposite.

 

You make pronouncements that you pass off as facts.  They are not.  The data can be interpreted in different ways.   I began my post with the preamble of "statistical gymnastics" because there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.  Stats are just numbers.  You can use them to tell nearly any story you want.  

But here's the statistical story I believe: stability pays off.  Over the past 50 years, the average Steeler coach lasted for about 17 years.  Their three coaches won 6 Lombardi's.

 

In the same period, our average HC lasted about 2.8 years.  Our endless parade of coaches have never won a Lombardi.   Being decisive - often considered a good trait in many situations - and quickly pulling plugs is not a smart strategy to take with HCs.  Patience and perseverance pay off.  

 

The average team has a 3% of winning the Super Bowl.  Good GMs and HCs can increase their probability to maybe 10%.  It took Beane and McD two, or three years to reach that level.  They've been at that level for maybe 3, maybe 4, years now.  From a mathematical perspective, it's not time to panic.   You don't fire the coach that brought you from 0-1% to 10% just because he hasn't hit on his 1-in-10 shot yet.  

 

There is no one path to the Super Bowl.  Of those Steeler coaches, Cowher won in his 14th season.  Tomlin won in his 2nd.   They both contributed in their own way to Pittsburgh's enviable haul of six trophies.   

[Einstein]

9 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

But here's the statistical story I believe:

 

Surely you see the problem here…

11 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Over the past 50 years, the average Steeler coach lasted for about 17 years.  Their three coaches won 6 Lombardi's.

 

In the same period, our average HC lasted about 2.8 years.  The average team has a 3% of winning the Super Bowl. 

 

I thought there is “lies, damn lies, and statistics”? Why are you using statistics here?

[Billsflyer12]

27 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

You make pronouncements that you pass off as facts.  They are not.  The data can be interpreted in different ways.   I began my post with the preamble of "statistical gymnastics" because there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.  Stats are just numbers.  You can use them to tell nearly any story you want.  

But here's the statistical story I believe: stability pays off.  Over the past 50 years, the average Steeler coach lasted for about 17 years.  Their three coaches won 6 Lombardi's.

 

In the same period, our average HC lasted about 2.8 years.  Our endless parade of coaches have never won a Lombardi.   Being decisive - often considered a good trait in many situations - and quickly pulling plugs is not a smart strategy to take with HCs.  Patience and perseverance pay off.  

 

The average team has a 3% of winning the Super Bowl.  Good GMs and HCs can increase their probability to maybe 10%.  It took Beane and McD two, or three years to reach that level.  They've been at that level for maybe 3, maybe 4, years now.  From a mathematical perspective, it's not time to panic.   You don't fire the coach that brought you from 0-1% to 10% just because he hasn't hit on his 1-in-10 shot yet.  

 

There is no one path to the Super Bowl.  Of those Steeler coaches, Cowher won in his 14th season.  Tomlin won in his 2nd.   They both contributed in their own way to Pittsburgh's enviable haul of six trophies.   

Chuck Koll won his 1st Super Bowl in his 6th season.  Cowher made his 1st Super Bowl in his 4th season.  Tomlin won his 1st in his 2nd season.

 

Point being all the Super Bowl winning Steeler coaches had at least a Super Bowl appearance by their 6th season.

Edited July 3, 2023 by Billsflyer12

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I think Bengals fans were definitely saying that at the tail end of the Andy Dalton / Marvin Lewis era. 

Sure, but they couldn't win a single playoff game.

[newcam2012]

On 6/27/2023 at 12:46 PM, Beck Water said:

 

That's one of those "who knows?" things.  He stood up and announced he was "stepping away due to health issues".  He def. did have some health issues, but he ws only 57 🤷‍♂️

 

So opinions vary, just as they do as to whether Frazier legit chose to step back for a year, or was pushed out by being told McD would call plays, or was shadow-fired.

 

 

There's no question on the last.  My only point is that it's hardly the sure bet to jettison a winning coach and bring in someone new, that some folks seem to believe.  It may lead to a better result, it may not.

It's all about risk vs reward. 

 

Are you content with where McD has led the team? Do you think he will process the team to a SB? 

 

Do you think a new HC can do better? Worse? 

 

Is the team ready for change? Will it be too disruptive or jump start the team? 

 

No one really knows. What's know is McD is a very good regular season coach and mediocre come playoff time. 

 

I keep asking myself what solid HC could really fail with Allen as your QB? He's the stability of the team. 

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

LOL. "I'm sick and tired of seeing my team in the playoffs" said no one ever...except Bills fans.

This is a short sighted approach here. 

 

Ask yourself if a solid HC replacement would make the playoffs with Allen. I think the only reasonable answer is yes. 

 

Put it in that context and perhaps McD doesn't look so special. Solid yes but is that good enough. 

 

Fans in Buffalo want a SB appearence and a Lombardi Trophy. At this point, making the playoffs doesn't cut it for lots of fans. 

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

You didn’t finish the sentence.

 

”I’m sick and tired of seeing my team in the playoffs after finally acquiring a franchise QB that we waited for for 20 years, only to watch the coaching staff fall short repeatedly”

Exactly! Frame this!

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

You make pronouncements that you pass off as facts.  They are not.  The data can be interpreted in different ways.   I began my post with the preamble of "statistical gymnastics" because there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.  Stats are just numbers.  You can use them to tell nearly any story you want.  

But here's the statistical story I believe: stability pays off.  Over the past 50 years, the average Steeler coach lasted for about 17 years.  Their three coaches won 6 Lombardi's.

 

In the same period, our average HC lasted about 2.8 years.  Our endless parade of coaches have never won a Lombardi.   Being decisive - often considered a good trait in many situations - and quickly pulling plugs is not a smart strategy to take with HCs.  Patience and perseverance pay off.  

 

The average team has a 3% of winning the Super Bowl.  Good GMs and HCs can increase their probability to maybe 10%.  It took Beane and McD two, or three years to reach that level.  They've been at that level for maybe 3, maybe 4, years now.  From a mathematical perspective, it's not time to panic.   You don't fire the coach that brought you from 0-1% to 10% just because he hasn't hit on his 1-in-10 shot yet.  

 

There is no one path to the Super Bowl.  Of those Steeler coaches, Cowher won in his 14th season.  Tomlin won in his 2nd.   They both contributed in their own way to Pittsburgh's enviable haul of six trophies.   

Stats only tell part of the story. You have to do the "eye ball" test." What do your eyes see? Do you trust what you are seeing? 

 

I'm not going to go playoff game by playoff game under the McD regime. All I can say is my eyes see a coach that hasn't get it done. A coach that has repeatedly failed under duress and the big game. A coach who has been out coached, out schemed, and out prepared. 

 

Maybe your eyes see it differently. Maybe you are satisfied with the Bills current playoff appearences. Everything else might be gravy on top. 

[Royale with Cheese]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Stats only tell part of the story. You have to do the "eye ball" test." What do your eyes see? Do you trust what you are seeing? 

 

I'm not going to go playoff game by playoff game under the McD regime. All I can say is my eyes see a coach that hasn't get it done. A coach that has repeatedly failed under duress and the big game. A coach who has been out coached, out schemed, and out prepared. 

 

Maybe your eyes see it differently. Maybe you are satisfied with the Bills current playoff appearences. Everything else might be gravy on top. 

 

Or maybe some of us don't b**** and complain on repeat every time we're on this message board.  

Scorned adult on a message board constantly complaining is not the look most of us want or go for.

 

And to your earlier post about McD owes the fan base an apology...I don't need one.  You can wait to see if he gives you one to ease your emotional struggles but I wouldn't hold my breath.  

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Or maybe some of us don't b**** and complain on repeat every time we're on this message board.  

Scorned adult on a message board constantly complaining is not the look most of us want or go for.

 

And to your earlier post about McD owes the fan base an apology...I don't need one.  You can wait to see if he gives you one to ease your emotional struggles but I wouldn't hold my breath.  

No need for an apology. He will be shown the door in two years. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

Sure, but they couldn't win a single playoff game.

they never had Super Bowl expectations in any of theirs seasons though either. 
 

the level of postseason failure is about the same if we measure it with the weight of expectations. 

[MJS]

26 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

they never had Super Bowl expectations in any of theirs seasons though either. 
 

the level of postseason failure is about the same if we measure it with the weight of expectations. 

Superbowl expectations are dumb to begin with. Even the best teams in the NFL should not EXPECT a superbowl. Go look at the betting odds. Kansas City, the best team in the NFL with the best odds of winning it, has like a 14% chance of winning the superbowl, according to the odds.

 

There is no such thing as a "good chance" of winning the superbowl.

 

If you expected the Bills to win the superbowl the last couple of years, you were a fool. Hoping for a superbowl, or believing that it is possible, is one thing, but EXPECTING one? That is just unrealistic fan hubris.

 

Fans need to stop viewing it that way. It is asinine, entitled, and pathetically naive, not to mention annoying.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, MJS said:

Superbowl expectations are dumb to begin with. Even the best teams in the NFL should not EXPECT a superbowl. Go look at the betting odds. Kansas City, the best team in the NFL with the best odds of winning it, has like a 14% chance of winning the superbowl, according to the odds.

 

There is no such thing as a "good chance" of winning the superbowl.

 

If you expected the Bills to win the superbowl the last couple of years, you were a fool. Hoping for a superbowl, or believing that it is possible, is one thing, but EXPECTING one? That is just unrealistic fan hubris.

 

Fans need to stop viewing it that way. It is asinine, entitled, and pathetically naive, not to mention annoying.

you don’t have to win or even get to the Super Bowl though. But the bar is set at getting to the conference championship game at a decent rate.  Bills have failed to achieve that two years in a row while having Super Bowl caliber expectations.

 

Cheifs have made it every year since Mahomes became the starter. bengals have made it two straight years. Bills haven’t been in two straight years and are trending backwards. 

[GoBills808]

30 minutes ago, MJS said:

Superbowl expectations are dumb to begin with. Even the best teams in the NFL should not EXPECT a superbowl. Go look at the betting odds. Kansas City, the best team in the NFL with the best odds of winning it, has like a 14% chance of winning the superbowl, according to the odds.

 

There is no such thing as a "good chance" of winning the superbowl.

 

If you expected the Bills to win the superbowl the last couple of years, you were a fool. Hoping for a superbowl, or believing that it is possible, is one thing, but EXPECTING one? That is just unrealistic fan hubris.

 

Fans need to stop viewing it that way. It is asinine, entitled, and pathetically naive, not to mention annoying.

Bemoaning 'fan hubris' and then immediately telling people how to think and act is just beautiful

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Bemoaning 'fan hubris' and then immediately telling people how to think and act is just beautiful

Sorry if you don't want to accept reality.

[GoBills808]

Just now, MJS said:

Sorry if you don't want to accept reality.

Self-appointed Arbiter of Both Reality and Hubris

 

getting even stronger lol

[MJS]

32 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

you don’t have to win or even get to the Super Bowl though. But the bar is set at getting to the conference championship game at a decent rate.  Bills have failed to achieve that two years in a row while having Super Bowl caliber expectations.

 

Cheifs have made it every year since Mahomes became the starter. bengals have made it two straight years. Bills haven’t been in two straight years and are trending backwards. 

I want the Bills to get there too. The fact is, there have been 20 teams in the conference championship game the past 10 seasons. Most don't get back to it. 5 got back to it twice, and 4 teams have been a cut above and gotten back to it regularly: New England (that's done now), Kansas City, San Francisco, and Green Bay (that's done now).

 

I sure hope the Bills can get into that territory and be one of those handful of teams who get to the conference championship regularly. That would be awesome.

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Self-appointed Arbiter of Both Reality and Hubris

 

getting even stronger lol

I offer data, you offer insults. We'll allow the information to speak for itself.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

I offer data

...

43 minutes ago, MJS said:

Superbowl expectations are dumb to begin with. ...if you expected the Bills to win the superbowl the last couple of years, you were a fool....asinine, entitled, and pathetically naive, not to mention annoying.

 

[boater]

6 hours ago, MJS said:

Superbowl expectations are dumb to begin with. Even the best teams in the NFL should not EXPECT a superbowl. Go look at the betting odds. Kansas City, the best team in the NFL with the best odds of winning it, has like a 14% chance of winning the superbowl, according to the odds.

 

There is no such thing as a "good chance" of winning the superbowl.

 

If you expected the Bills to win the superbowl the last couple of years, you were a fool. Hoping for a superbowl, or believing that it is possible, is one thing, but EXPECTING one? That is just unrealistic fan hubris.

 

Fans need to stop viewing it that way. It is asinine, entitled, and pathetically naive, not to mention annoying.

Post of the week.

 

So tired of the fans who want to fire Beane and McDermott if they fail to deliver the Lombardi. Have they no memory of the drought?