How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Dopey said:

No. That’s on me. 

 

Thank goodness! I have an odd but sad MENSA story about an old friend, and now I don’t feel the need to type it all out. Needless to say, there are many different types if “intelligence”. 

[What a Tuel]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 Makes you wonder if the Browns would have been better off being patient with Belichick. Here’s a crazy concept for folks to ponder: Do you think people can get better at their job given some experience? But how do you squeeze that into our cute little “formula”? 

 

Coaches rarely get fired for not winning the Super Bowl. They get fired (all the time) for not winning. Period. McD wins, a lot. He has had missteps in the playoffs for sure, but he’s consistently there and I think his time will come. I’ll take him over door #2 on The Price Is Right. 

 

Yeah agree, somehow Belichick slipped my notice, I must have subconsciously refused to pull his wiki up 😂

Edited June 26, 2023 by What a Tuel

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

A very consistent coincidence over 40 years of Super Bowls…

 

 

I’m still open to you proving this, but every time I call you out on it, you simply repeat “sampling bias!”. That’s not proof - that’s simply a broken record.

 

.

I think that’s where you’re going wrong. The set of coaches is not that large. And even it was, forty of anything is minuscule in terms of statistical sampling. Add to that there are absolutes at either end of the spectrum. For example you’re almost surely not going to the Super Bowl in Year One and definitely not in Year Fifty. 

[Reks Ryan]

On 6/24/2023 at 4:23 PM, Draconator said:

This is pointless until you post your 2020 through 2023 tax return. 

I have seen a few references / jokes on this topic on TSW in the last week.  But I missed the initiial discussion.  Did someone really post financial docs on this site?

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I think that’s where you’re going wrong. The set of coaches is not that large. And even it was, forty of anything is minuscule in terms of statistical sampling. 

 

It's really not. I respect your architectural knowledge greatly but you're out of your domain here.

 

For example, when our company conducts focus groups, we do it in groups of 10 or 12 people. Because that is all you need for a sampling of the entire United States demographics. To be fair, it is typically done in 5 rounds, so it's more like 50 to 60 people, but it is still a small (to you) sample size.

 

Another example is Nielsen and their "people meters" process where they only collect data from 0.03% of US households yet estimate the data to over 120 MILLION.

2 minutes ago, Reks Ryan said:

I have seen a few references / jokes on this topic on TSW in the last week.  But I missed the initiial discussion.  Did someone really post financial docs on this site?

 

Augie told me to post my tax return. I did, for fun. 

 

Then several posters became jealous of my financial situation  

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

It's really not. I respect your architectural knowledge greatly but you're out of your domain here.

 

For example, when our company conducts focus groups, we do it in groups of 10 or 12 people. Because that is all you need for a sampling of the entire United States demographics. To be fair, it is typically done in 5 rounds, so it's more like 50 to 60 people, but it is still a small (to you) sample size.

 

Another example is Nielsen and their "people meters" process where they only collect data from 0.03% of US households yet estimate the data to over 120 MILLION.

 

Augie told me to post my tax return. I did, for fun. 

 

Then several posters became jealous of my financial situation  

Yeah, yeah, yeah…..So what’s the point of all this then? Is it your position that the Bills should fire McD right now because chances of them winning a Super Bowl are slim to none? Seems like a simple concept really, and I’m not saying you’re wrong in this particular case. But using history to justify it seems a bit off….to me. 

[Einstein]

57 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The issue you have is you want to insist 2+2=5

 

Ok, this is progress.

 

Before you claimed confirmation bias (but with no proof).

 

Now you're claiming a calculation error. Where is the exact calculation error?

 

57 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

and get upset when a lot of people tell you that you’re wrong.

 

Woh! I'm not upset at all!

 

I know it's not your fault that you and others don't understand.

 

57 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Your issue is you have concluded in your mind that you don’t like McD.  And you go out to try and find data that is biased towards that view.

 

Now we are back to confirmation bias.

 

Where is the proof?

 

You say this, but provide not a single shred of proof. 

 

57 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Why choose getting to a SB?  Why not choose winning a SB?  

 

Because my goal was to ascertain McDermott's chance of making a Super Bowl. That is the  next step. He has made an AFC Championship game, the next step is to at least make the Super Bowl. Though winning would be great as well. 

 

57 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

No stats, nothing.  Just a bunch of numbers. 

 

Who wants to tell him? lol!

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Is it your position that the Bills should fire McD right now because chances of them winning a Super Bowl are slim to none? 

 

Not at all. 

 

I mentioned in my original post that I think McD deserves this year to move the needle and advance to the Super Bowl. Firing him at this moment would not be productive.

 

The point of this thread is to ascertain the leash that McDermott should have going forward. 

 

So let me ask you - how much longer would YOU give him? Indefinitely? Would you be willing to spend Allen's entire career waiting for McDermott to figure it out and not make mistakes in the playoffs? 2 more years? 3 more yeas? What, in your opinion, should be McDermott's leash?

 

[Augie]

19 minutes ago, Reks Ryan said:

I have seen a few references / jokes on this topic on TSW in the last week.  But I missed the initiial discussion.  Did someone really post financial docs on this site?

 

Yes. It was a cropped version of tax returns showing short term capital gains, I believe. Who here do you suppose might be so full of themself that they would do that?

 

HINT: He has 61 posts in his beloved thread. 

 

How many guesses do you think you will need? 

[SoCal Deek]

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Not at all. 

 

I mentioned in my original post that I think McD deserves this year to move the needle and advance to the Super Bowl. Firing him at this moment would not be productive.

 

The point of this thread is to ascertain the leash that McDermott should have going forward. 

 

So let me ask you - how much longer would YOU give him? Indefinitely? Would you be willing to spend Allen's entire career waiting for McDermott to figure it out and not make mistakes in the playoffs? 2 more years? 3 more yeas? What, in your opinion, should be McDermott's leash?

 

I’m pretty sure you and I would/will agree on the right time to pull the trigger. I’m just saying that if I was his boss I wouldn’t do it because of ANYTHING any other coach’s had historically done or will do. I think it’ll be obvious when he’s reached his ceiling. Is it next year? I don’t know. But the chances obviously get higher with each playoff failure. Is that statistics? Maybe. I just call it common sense. 

[Reks Ryan]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Yes. It was a cropped version of tax returns showing short term capital gains, I believe. Who here do you suppose might be so full of themself that they would do that?

 

HINT: He has 61 posts in his beloved thread. 

 

How many guesses do you think you will need? 

 

Thanks for the hint.   Even though I'm only Reks Ryan and not a genius like someone else on this board, pretty sure I know who it is. 

 

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m pretty sure you and I would/will agree on the right time to pull the trigger. 

 

I agree. I think you and I more alike than many others here, even if our methodologies differ.

[Reks Ryan]

On 6/25/2023 at 5:17 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

The point with Sean Payton for me (and I think he is second only to Andy Reid as a play caller) is that he had an elite level future HOF Quarterback for 15 years, won 1 Superbowl, missed the playoffs multiple times and has a list of disastrous playoff exits to teams the Saints were better than. It is one thing losing playoff games to Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. It's another losing to Matt Hasselbeck, Rex Grossman and Case Keenum. 

 

If the argument is about the Bills underachieving in the playoffs the antidote to that can't be Sean Payton, as good of a coach as I believe him to be.

 

It's a good point that Payton doesn't fit the model, if we're looking for someone other than McD to put the Bills over the top.   Payton is also in his first year with Denver, so not likely to be avaiable in the next 2 to 3 years.  And it's unlikely he will coach another team after the Broncos, no matter how it goes in Denver. 

 

I believe that sticking with our current coach, GM & QB combo gives the Bills the best chance to win a Super Bowl in the next 4.2 years.

[Chaos]

9 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

In a statistical sample that only includes a little over 50 results, I'm not sure I would call much of anything an Outlier. Especially considering that a few franchises/coaches have repeated so many of those results.

Since the thread is only about making the Super Bowl, there are over a 100 samples. 

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Since the thread is only about making the Super Bowl, there are over a 100 samples. 

Not really. The statistic is about making it to your FIRST Super Bowl. That takes quite a few coaches out if the running. For example Bill B made it many many times after his first one. 

[Chaos]

9 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Not really. The statistic is about making it to your FIRST Super Bowl. That takes quite a few coaches out if the running. For example Bill B made it many many times after his first one. 

Lets just agree it is much closer to 100 than to 50

 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Somehow I feel like Einstein is just misunderstood 

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Ok, this is progress.

 

Before you claimed confirmation bias (but with no proof).

 

Now you're claiming a calculation error. Where is the exact calculation error?

 

 

Woh! I'm not upset at all!

 

I know it's not your fault that you and others don't understand.

 

 

Now we are back to confirmation bias.

 

Where is the proof?

 

You say this, but provide not a single shred of proof. 

 

 

Because my goal was to ascertain McDermott's chance of making a Super Bowl. That is the  next step. He has made an AFC Championship game, the next step is to at least make the Super Bowl. Though winning would be great as well. 

 

 

Who wants to tell him? lol!

You elect to choose a data endpoint to match your pre-conceived conclusion.  I’ve seen enough authors try to do this over 40 years; it’s easy to recognize especially given the overall negativity of your posting. You’re not fooling anyone.  You have numbers that you’ve really done nothing to analyze.  You have not looked at any independent variables that could affect a coach making the dance.  Oh, except when someone pointed out Belichick not making it in Cleveland - THEN it had nothing to do with the coach, you claimed it was because he didn’t have a franchise QB.  So you apparently recognize the idea of variables, you just want to ignore them when they might cloud your preconceived notions.

 

By the way the reason your company and Neilson and such know how many people to test is they do, or should do, power analyses to determine a statistically relevant sampling.  Otherwise differences may not be relevant, I.e. random variation.  Did you do a power analysis as to whether your sample size was sufficient to show that?  I assume not.

Edited June 27, 2023 by oldmanfan

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, Dopey said:

No. That’s on me. 

 

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

Maybe I missed something? Did he really bring up MENSA? 

He had brought up MENSA multiple times.

[Einstein]

53 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You elect to choose a data endpoint to match your pre-conceived conclusion.  

 

Again. Where is the proof?

 

You have not shown a single shred of evidence that I did what you are accusing me of.

 

You’re just regurgitating the same unproven assertion.

 

53 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You have not looked at any independent variables that could affect a coach making the dance.

 

You can variable any meaningful stat into extinction.

 

For example. Why count INT’s? There are many variables for why a QB may have thrown one.