Dopey Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 5 hours ago, teef said: i does seem like a lot of work to ultimately prove nothing. i get that some people enjoy the analysis, but to spend hours calculating something that pushes an agenda seems like a massive waste of time. time that someone who was extremely successful and intelligent just wouldn't have. 2 Quote
Einstein Posted June 26, 2023 Author Posted June 26, 2023 14 minutes ago, What a Tuel said: Accounting for team moves, it appears that coaches that coached anytime between 1980 and now, there are about 30 that have won a championship and it appears as though roughly 10 HC or 33% of them have won their first Super Bowl in their 7th+ year as a head coach. It decreases if you narrow it to having to have 7+ years on the same team but that opens up all kinds of questions. Was it the HC or was it the team? Front Office? Owner? Andy Reid, Pete Carroll, Bruce Arians, Gary Kubiak, Tom Coughlin are all recent examples of HC that moved to another team and won a Super Bowl. One could argue that their previous teams (obviosuly not NE and Pete Carroll) made a mistake giving up on them or not addressing the real issue. All valid questions that can form a hypothesis. Quote
Augie Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, What a Tuel said: Andy Reid, Pete Carroll, Bruce Arians, Gary Kubiak, Tom Coughlin are all recent examples of HC that moved to another team and won a Super Bowl. One could argue that their previous teams made a mistake giving up on them. Makes you wonder if the Browns would have been better off being patient with Belichick. Here’s a crazy concept for folks to ponder: Do you think people can get better at their job given some experience? But how do you squeeze that into our cute little “formula”? Coaches rarely get fired for not winning the Super Bowl. They get fired (all the time) for not winning. Period. McD wins, a lot. He has had missteps in the playoffs for sure, but he’s consistently there and I think his time will come. I’ll take him over door #2 on The Price Is Right. Quote
muppy Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 43 minutes ago, Einstein said: When an expert engages in conversations with laypeople, it is not uncommon for the latter to feel confident in their own correctness and perceive the experts as being mistaken. I have grown accustomed to this dynamic. reading this post as Commander Data from Star Trek was pretty funny. It's a dead ringer lol Quote
folz Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 On 6/24/2023 at 4:21 PM, Einstein said: The tenure of Sean McDermott as head coach and the appropriate "leash" to allow him to lead this team to the Super Bowl has been a topic of considerable debate on this forum. While there's a consensus that he deserves additional time, the crux of the argument lies in determining the precise length of this leash. To shed light on this, I conducted a simple data study, examining the trajectory of every NFL head coach who has led their team to the Super Bowl (not necessarily winning, just reaching the final game) over the past 40 NFL seasons. Here is what the data revealed: On average, it takes a head coach 4.2 seasons to reach his first Super Bowl. Only 5 coaches in the past 40 years have made their inaugural Super Bowl appearance after 7 seasons of head coaching. This is particularly relevant as Sean McDermott is about to enter his seventh season as head coach The most frequent timeline for a coach's first Super Bowl appearance is two years, closely followed by five years. This trend suggests that many coaches are capable of assembling a Super Bowl-worthy team within the first 5 years of their tenure (77% of these coaches managed to make the Super Bowl within their first 5 seasons) First of all, I find it interesting that you chose to include head coaches who have appeared in, but not won a Super Bowl because if McDermott took the Bills to the Super Bowl, but lost, you would be all over him saying, see he can't win the big game when it counts. From reading your posts, I am pretty sure you wouldn't be happy that he got us to a SB, you would be calling for his head because he lost it. Secondly, I haven't crunched all of your data to see if it is correct, but there have been at least 7 coaches, not 5, who didn't make their inaugural Super Bowl until after 7 seasons of head coaching (there may be more, but I'm not sure as I only looked at Super Bowl winning coaches, not all coaches who have appeared in a Super Bowl). And while your data can show some averages of what HAS happened, it is by no means predictive of what CAN or MAY happen. Here are a some coaches who (at least generally) buck your trends/averages (again, I only looked at SB winning coaches): Coach Years to 1st SB appearance Years to 1st Super Bowl victory Tom Landry 11 12 Bill Belichick 7 7 Andy Reid 6 21 Tom Coughlin 12 12 Pete Carroll 8 8 Chuck Noll 6 6 Bill Cowher 4 14 Tony Dungy 11 11 Dick Vermeil 5 10 John Madden 8 8 Gary Kubiak 9 9 Bruce Arians 8 8 Some damn fine coaches on that list. 1 1 Quote
Shaw66 Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 I've refused to read this thread but I do check in from time to time just to see what's being said. Has anyone mentioned the fact that there were more than 100 NFL head coaches who had the job for four or fewer seasons. Who's to say how many of those would have made it to a Super Bowl? Bottom line is that there simple isn't enough data to prove much of anything on this subject. 3 Quote
GreggTX Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 It took Andt Teid a long time. He got fired first. Quote
oldmanfan Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I've refused to read this thread but I do check in from time to time just to see what's being said. Has anyone mentioned the fact that there were more than 100 NFL head coaches who had the job for four or fewer seasons. Who's to say how many of those would have made it to a Super Bowl? Bottom line is that there simple isn't enough data to prove much of anything on this subject. Correct Shaw. Basically it’s ascertainment bias but when that’s pointed out one gets accused of ad hominem attacks. Edited June 26, 2023 by oldmanfan 1 1 Quote
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 On 6/24/2023 at 5:18 PM, Einstein said: What the data shows is that point in time typically happens within a coaches first 7 years. Now do this chart with every coach in NFL history, including ones who never won one We'll wait Quote
WhoTom Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, oldmanfan said: Correct Shaw. Basically it’s ascertainment bias but when that’s pointed out one gets accuse of ad hominem attacks... ... or not being intelligent enough to understand the math. 2 Quote
Augie Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Shaw66 said: I've refused to read this thread but I do check in from time to time just to see what's being said. Has anyone mentioned the fact that there were more than 100 NFL head coaches who had the job for four or fewer seasons. Who's to say how many of those would have made it to a Super Bowl? Bottom line is that there simple isn't enough data to prove much of anything on this subject. BUT, did you check out the mathy page? That was some definitive stuff there! Numbers and formulas everywhere! All to prove……exactly nothing. But it was all carefully gathered by the OP who is trying to push his agenda and trick grade school kids into thinking he’s onto something. He’s at 56 posts and climbing in this effort, while the #2 poster has 14 posts. He must really want to prove he’s right, despite how obvious it seems to most of us that the math page was pure folly. It’s not math, it’s football! Quote
Einstein Posted June 26, 2023 Author Posted June 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said: Now do this chart with every coach in NFL history, including ones who never won one We'll wait Do what exactly? Are you asking to go back 50-60 years instead of just 40? Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, WhoTom said: ... or not being intelligent enough to understand the math. He is way more convincing that he's not a superior intelligence. I think we are all convinced he's not. We all have interacted with highly intelligent people enough to understand he's not one of them. Quote
SoCal Deek Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Einstein said: The fact that there are so many different variables and yet the data is still so consistent is what makes it so remarkable and notable. That’s what we call coincidence not causation or prediction. Quote
Einstein Posted June 26, 2023 Author Posted June 26, 2023 (edited) 57 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: That’s what we call coincidence not causation or prediction. A very consistent coincidence over 40 years of Super Bowls… 1 hour ago, oldmanfan said: Basically it’s ascertainment bias I’m still open to you proving this, but every time I call you out on it, you simply repeat “sampling bias!”. That’s not proof - that’s simply a broken record. . Edited June 26, 2023 by Einstein Quote
Einstein Posted June 26, 2023 Author Posted June 26, 2023 1 hour ago, WhoTom said: ... or not being intelligent enough to understand the math. Now that’s true. I still chuckle about you thinking simple calculus needs to be peer reviewed 😂. I wasn’t the only poster who called you out on that nonsense. 1 Quote
oldmanfan Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, Einstein said: Very large, consistent coincidence. I’m still open to you proving this, but every time I call you out on it, you simply repeat “sampling bias!”. That’s not proof - that’s simply a broken record. The issue you have is you want to insist 2+2=5, and get upset when a lot of people tell you that you’re wrong. Your issue is you have concluded in your mind that you don’t like McD. And you go out to try and find data that is biased towards that view. Why choose getting to a SB? Why not choose winning a SB? It’s because you can twist the former to try and support your preconceived position. A classic example of ascertainment bias. And when you talk about analyzing the data, you’ve done no actual analysis. No stats, nothing. Just a bunch of numbers. And you’ve yet to provide any definitive conclusion that I can see. What you have is simply an observation. Nothing more. No reputable editor would accept this kind of analysis for any peer reviewed journal. 1 1 1 Quote
Dopey Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: The issue you have is you want to insist 2+2=5, and get upset when a lot of people tell you that you’re wrong. Your issue is you have concluded in your mind that you don’t like McD. And you go out to try and find data that is biased towards that view. Why choose getting to a SB? Why not choose winning a SB? It’s because you can twist the former to try and support your preconceived position. A classic example of ascertainment bias. And when you talk about analyzing the data, you’ve done no actual analysis. No stats, nothing. Just a bunch of numbers. And you’ve yet to provide any definitive conclusion that I can see. What you have is simply an observation. Nothing more. No reputable editor would accept this kind of analysis for any peer reviewed journal. He was actually on the win a SB(ultimate objective) and quickly or fire Mcd. He moved the goalposts after I pointed out some issues with his thoughts. Now it’s “make it to a SB, instead of winning it”. Wonder what’s next as his hypothesis gets ***** on. “How long can we win ugly playoff games and still have confidence ?” But it’s an observation by EINSTEIN. MENSA 1 Quote
Augie Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Dopey said: He was actually on the win a SB(ultimate objective) and quickly or fire Mcd. He moved the goalposts after I pointed out some issues with his thoughts. Now it’s “make it to a SB, instead of winning it”. Wonder what’s next as his hypothesis gets ***** on. “How long can we win ugly playoff games and still have confidence ?” But it’s an observation by EINSTEIN. MENSA Maybe I missed something? Did he really bring up MENSA? Quote
Dopey Posted June 26, 2023 Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, Augie said: Maybe I missed something? Did he really bring up MENSA? No. That’s on me. Quote
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