How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?

[Richard Noggin]

On 6/24/2023 at 4:37 PM, Einstein said:

Exactly. That's why teams should always be searching for one who can.

 

 

The thing about the word "can" is that it's either a matter of subjective prediction or a matter of objective past results. Neither of which are reliably predictive with respect to coaching failure/success. There will be a few well-known outliers (Cowher and Belichick and Reid and who knows who else to come) and there will be many more obscure supporting examples. But we don't know in advance, due to TOO many variables. 

 

It's a Schrödinger's thing: until someone's career is over, we don't know which way it went. It's fine to have ideas and hypotheses and whatnot about what could/should happen, but it's folly to think we ever actually know. It's ego. And that's only illuminating for the dimmest of bulbs. 

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I actually get 44% for the first three seasons and 138/250 for the last 4 years on those odds given for 55.2% of the making the SB at least once in the last 4 years counting this upcoming season

I'm 99% sure my math is correct and it's 46% and approximately 57% (56.8% to be exact).

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'm 99% sure my math is correct and it's 46% and approximately 57% (56.8% to be exact).

How does one argue math with a disgraced nuclear physicist 

[teef]

15 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I had 3 Italian sausages last night.  

are you still eating mcds 8 times a week?

[Royale with Cheese]

12 minutes ago, teef said:

are you still eating mcds 8 times a week?

 

Yes it's why my libido has increased.

[machine gun kelly]

On 6/24/2023 at 4:39 PM, machine gun kelly said:

McD has a .639% winning % as a Bills HC.  That’s #1 in Bills history eclipsing Saban and Levy.

 

Cut the McD passive aggressive crap Einstein.  It’s as transparent as the rest of you’re posts.

 

All you ever do is try and poke holes in anything that instills confidence in this fan base towards the team they love.

 

I’ll enjoy and remind you when we win the Lombardi.  It will happen one day and the Pegulas made a regal decision extending the dream team.

 

Well deserved!

 

Or do you want to go back to the drought for 17 years as I know those years painfully well.  We were a hot mess with poor decisions at all levels for decades.  It is the same second guessing decisions and quick ridiculous decisions that were short sighted that kept us in the Mohave Desert.

 

I never want to back to that HELL!

Thanks for the replies.  I believe I was simply verbalizing what I’ve read from many of you.  I honestly don’t care most of the time as I ignore more than not people who just try and drag this fanbase down and plant seeds of doubt on a nonstop basis.  After awhile, it’s just stop.  
 

I have still some question marks on the team, but nothing will be answered until camp starts.  I’m hopeful on some of these new additions at WR, the G’s look like a real upgrade which was sorely needed, everyone was excited about the 12 personnel option now, but measured excitement., etc..

 

On defense I like the idea of more speed at MLB and one area I have no doubt is the return from 1st and 2nd team All Pros in Tre, Hyde, and Poyer.

 

I keep going back to WR.  This is why I’m hopeful at the 11th hour I still hope we push the chips in and get D Hop to believe the Bills is the best option for him.  It’s possible he’s negotiating from a position of weakness as I don’t see any contender throwing $15 mil at him as Baltimore did for OBJ.  That to me was a one off as it was partially done to make Lamar happy and sign his WB extension.

 

For D Hop to think he’s getting the same is sillly.  A starting line up of Diggs, D Hop and a healthy Davis with no ankle problems is now on par with the Cincy trio, and even superior if you consider the dynamic 12 option of DK2 works out.

 

I guess to sum up its cautious optimism, with a little bit of butterflies.  I can live with that gut feeling.

 

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by machine gun kelly

[teef]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yes it's why my libido has increased.

if i have a heart attack before you i'm going to be so pissed.

[Einstein]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

It's a Schrödinger's thing: until someone's career is over, we don't know which way it went. 

 

Indeed, that's why information such as this thread can prove valuable. We've seen from historical data that only five coaches have reached their inaugural Super Bowl after their seventh year of coaching in the past four decades.  

 

It's hard to anticipate the trajectory of a career, but if McDermott ends up making it to the Super Bowl, he would (after this year) be an anomaly within a vast data set.

[Einstein]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

That's how a majority of advanced stats that rely on EV/EPA are calculated, they're an aggregation of almost the entirety of previous NFL history on a play by play basis to determine a given value for a particular down. 

 

Bingo. That’s how (almost) literally every forecasting or grading calculation in sports works. It’s all past data.

 

The people getting upset simply don’t like the conclusion, so they grasp at straws to find ways to discredit it. 

 

7 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Correct, and none of that has anything to do with past events.  Einstein basically calculated some statistics from past events and then made it into some kind of probability statement about future events. 

 

I’m starting to realize that people on this forum simply don’t understand how probabilities work.

 

We find probabilities from PAST EVENTS. That is literally how it works! We don’t have a magic fortune teller ball. We use past data!

 

- Financial analysts use historical stock data, market trends, and other indicators to estimate the probabilities of future stock price movements or market trends.

 

- Transportation planners use historical traffic data, road conditions, and other variables to estimate the probabilities of traffic congestion in different areas and at specific times.

 

- Seismologists, meteorologists, and other scientists use historical data linked to monitoring systems to assess the probabilities of earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and other natural disasters occurring in specific regions.

 

Probabilities require strong data unless you have a very simple set (such as a 50:50 coin),

9 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

 True probability for a future event does not factor in past results. 

 

If you prefer, you can substitute “probability” with “forecasted probability”. 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

31 minutes ago, teef said:

if i have a heart attack before you i'm going to be so pissed.

 

Eat more McDonalds then.

[Tanoros]

13 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Indeed, that's why information such as this thread can prove valuable. We've seen from historical data that only five coaches have reached their inaugural Super Bowl after their seventh year of coaching in the past four decades.  

 

It's hard to anticipate the trajectory of a career, but if McDermott ends up making it to the Super Bowl, he would (after this year) be an anomaly within a vast data set.

It seems like the counter point being made here is that as in all things footballs there are just too many variables for you prediction to mean a whole lot. There are coaches who made it under the 5 year mark who I wouldn’t want anywhere near the Bills. Each situation really is unique to itself. Comparing obviously has to be done, but I wouldn’t be enough weight in the comparison to suggest it’s time to move on from McDermott. Other reasons down the road perhaps, but not that. It’s also very clear that’s the feeling of ownership too. I’m sure they don’t make a decision to resign a coach without looking at a healthy amount of data analysis. His winning percentage to me, is a big positive. Just look at year 1 as proof of what he can do with an inferior squad. 
Playoffs are the last thing he needs to improve upon and if not, that’s what will cost him his job. Not some analysis saying he is an outlier to make the superbowl at this point in his career. 

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

It seems like the counter point being made here is that as in all things footballs there are just too many variables for you prediction to mean a whole lot. 

 

I disagree with the counter point but I can understand it and I think there is some validity to it.. Every person can do with the data what they wish (including ignoring it).

[WotAGuy]

18 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Bingo. That’s how (almost) literally every forecasting or grading calculation in sports works. It’s all past data.

 

The people getting upset simply don’t like the conclusion, so they grasp at straws to find ways to discredit it. 

 

 

I’m starting to realize that people on this forum simply don’t understand how probabilities work.

 

We find probabilities from PAST EVENTS. That is literally how it works! We don’t have a magic fortune teller ball. We use past data!

 

- Financial analysts use historical stock data, market trends, and other indicators to estimate the probabilities of future stock price movements or market trends.

 

- Transportation planners use historical traffic data, road conditions, and other variables to estimate the probabilities of traffic congestion in different areas and at specific times.

 

- Seismologists, meteorologists, and other scientists use historical data linked to monitoring systems to assess the probabilities of earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and other natural disasters occurring in specific regions.

 

Probabilities require strong data unless you have a very simple set (such as a 50:50 coin),

 

If you prefer, you can substitute “probability” with “forecasted probability”. 

 

It’s not our fault you don’t know what you’re talking about and don’t use the correct terms or examples in making your disjointed points. LOL

[eball]

There are so many variables involved in reaching/winning a Super Bowl: talent, coaching, injuries, and plain old luck.  A good/great coach is one who has his team perennially in the mix to compete for a championship.  The "how many years to reach a Super Bowl" analysis is ridiculous.  By any measure McD is a good/great coach.

 

As an NFL fan, all you can realistically hope for is that your team is consistently "in the mix" to compete for a championship.  We have that.

 

I don't know what @Einstein's purpose is other than to be a self-aggrandizing blowhard on a fan football forum.

 

[Einstein]

7 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

We were 10 to 1 in 2020 (10% chance of making the Super Bowl), 5 to 1 in 2021 (20%), and 4 to 1 (25%) last year.  The odds of us making the Super Bowl over the last three seasons at least once based off that was 46%.

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'm 99% sure my math is correct and it's 46% and approximately 57% (56.8% to be exact).

 

Sorry but your math is wrong.

 

Odds (for example, the ones you listed at 10 to 1, 5 to 1, 4 to 1) do not translate directly into percentages (10%, 20%, 25%). Odds and probabilities are related, but they're not the same thing. Odds are a ratio of the probability of an event happening to the probability of it not happening, while probability is a ratio of the probability of an event happening to all possible outcomes.

 

In other words, 10 to 1 odds correspond to a probability of 1/11 (9.09%), 5 to 1 odds correspond to a probability of 1/6 (16.67%) and 4 to 1 odds correspond to a probability of 1/5 (20%).

So we have 0.9091 * 0.8333 * 0.8 = 0.604 

 

then

 

1 - 0.604 = 0.396 (39.6%)

 

The probability of making the Super Bowl one time in the past 3 years (given Vegas odds) are 39.6%

 

.

Edited June 26, 2023 by Einstein

[Royale with Cheese]

20 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

It seems like the counter point being made here is that as in all things footballs there are just too many variables for you prediction to mean a whole lot. There are coaches who made it under the 5 year mark who I wouldn’t want anywhere near the Bills. Each situation really is unique to itself. Comparing obviously has to be done, but I wouldn’t be enough weight in the comparison to suggest it’s time to move on from McDermott. Other reasons down the road perhaps, but not that. It’s also very clear that’s the feeling of ownership too. I’m sure they don’t make a decision to resign a coach without looking at a healthy amount of data analysis. His winning percentage to me, is a big positive. Just look at year 1 as proof of what he can do with an inferior squad. 
Playoffs are the last thing he needs to improve upon and if not, that’s what will cost him his job. Not some analysis saying he is an outlier to make the superbowl at this point in his career. 

 

Exactly.   

[SoCal Deek]

To keep things in perspective, every single year someone sets a new record, or a new statistical factoid is uncovered in Major League Baseball....a sport that's been keeping records for over a century, and that plays literally TEN TIMES as many regular season games as professional football. Ya never know what will happen until it happens.

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

To keep things in perspective, every single year someone sets a new record, or a new statistical factoid is uncovered in Major League Baseball....a sport that's been keeping records for over a century, and that plays literally TEN TIMES as many regular season games as professional football. Ya never know what will happen until it happens.

 

This is true.

 

We just have to hope that McDermott is an outlier.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

This is true.

 

We just have to hope that McDermott is an outlier.

In a statistical sample that only includes a little over 50 results, I'm not sure I would call much of anything an Outlier. Especially considering that a few franchises/coaches have repeated so many of those results.

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

In a statistical sample that only includes a little over 50 results, I'm not sure I would call much of anything an Outlier. Especially considering that a few franchises/coaches have repeated so many of those results.

 

Understood, but It is 40 years of data and it is not n=1. When those 50~ results come from a pool of over several hundred coaches, it has some meaning as it shows who out of that pool of several hundred (the real sample) was able to make it.

 

But I do understand that there will always be *some* reason for results we do not like to be discredited. I blame lab error for my cholesterol numbers.