How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?

[TBBills Fan]

As long as it takes them, is pretty much the answer 

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I had 3 Italian sausages last night.  

 

 

I did not realize you like Italian men

[WotAGuy]

3 hours ago, WhoTom said:

 

In real research, the researcher is a subject-matter expert (SME).

 

I have a friend who's a math professor. He's really good at Calculus and could undoubtedly solve a differential equation describing an electrical circuit like a PID control system. He can figure out proportions, integrals, and derivatives, but the control system needs coefficients for each of those quantities - with the P, I, and D variables being weighted according to how much influence they should have on the system. Some applications are heavier on the P; others emphasize the I or the D - it all depends on the context. Since he's not an expert in control systems, he couldn't design the circuit or even be certain that the equation he's solving correctly represents the circuit in question - for that, he'd need a SME.

 

 

 

Fortunately, you’ve come to the right place!

[Dopey]

On 6/24/2023 at 4:39 PM, machine gun kelly said:

McD has a .639% winning % as a Bills HC.  That’s #1 in Bills history eclipsing Saban and Levy.

 

Cut the McD passive aggressive crap Einstein.  It’s as transparent as the rest of you’re posts.

 

All you ever do is try and poke holes in anything that instills confidence in this fan base towards the team they love.

 

I’ll enjoy and remind you when we win the Lombardi.  It will happen one day and the Pegulas made a regal decision extending the dream team.

 

Well deserved!

 

Or do you want to go back to the drought for 17 years as I know those years painfully well.  We were a hot mess with poor decisions at all levels for decades.  It is the same second guessing decisions and quick ridiculous decisions that were short sighted that kept us in the Mohave Desert.

 

I never want to back to that HELL!

When someone has an ego and really thinks they’re smarter than anyone else here, they will try really weird things to be “right “. Einstein went from having to win it all, quickly, to just making it to the SB, quickly. I guess he’s trying to live up to his screen name. 

[DrW]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Mahomes vs playoff teams without Anuromo: 33.1ppg

 

Mahomes vs playoff teams WITH Anuromo: 23.5ppg 

 

That is a MASSIVE difference.

 

Visit the Chiefs forum and you will see a fan base that shudders at the mention of Anuromo’s name. They fear him like we feared Belichick for 2 decades.

 

He is your favorite but can't even get his name right? His name is Lou Anarumo. And was there not just another long thread that we should not again hire a defensive guy as HC?

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Einstein went from having to win it all, quickly, to just making it to the SB, quickly. 

 

It’s really not a hard concept. Reid got more of a leash because he got much closer to the ultimate goal, numerous times, than other coaches have. Very simple.

 

I can only give you the information. I can not make you understand it.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Einstein its time to let it go. 

McD and Beane are here for at least two more years no matter what happens this year.

McD is our coach and all we can do now is hope he gets it done o at least doesn't stop Allen from winning it all.

You need to move on and assess decisions in the future during this upcoming season and next offseason. 

If the Bills fall short of the SuperBowl again in 2023 there will be plenty of time to debate why. 

Now is the time to get behind the players and coaches and cheer. 

We can assess in game decisions, play calls, and performance during the season. 

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, DrW said:

 

He is your favorite but can't even get his name right? His name is Lou Anarumo

 

Apologies for getting 2 letters in his name wrong lol.

[Dopey]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

It’s really not a hard concept. Reid got more of a leash because he got much closer to the ultimate goal, numerous times, than other coaches have. Very simple.

 

I can only give you the information. I can not make you understand it.

You created a whole new thread to change your narrative about winning it all and quickly to just getting there. And you spent 2 hrs to do it. 😂

I understand it. You’re the one who left the hill you were willing to die on. That screen name is more of a joke the more you post and I actually love it. 

[Hermes]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Mahomes vs playoff teams without Anuromo: 33.1ppg

 

Mahomes vs playoff teams WITH Anuromo: 23.5ppg 

 

That is a MASSIVE difference.

 

Visit the Chiefs forum and you will see a fan base that shudders at the mention of Anuromo’s name. They fear him like we feared Belichick for 2 decades.

Right, it is a massive difference.

 

 

On an incredibly limited sample size of 2(!) games, one of which Mahomes was severely impacted by an ankle injury. If you're looking to say that your analysis on coaches winning a superbowl is accurate because of your robust historical dataset, then what does that say about this the situation we have here.

 

I'm not even going to entertain the thought of going on the Chiefs board for countless reasons, but in this instance, fan sentiment means absolutely nothing. To say that this 2 game sample size is comparable to the 40 games played between the Bills and Belichek is laughable.

 

Again, we'll have to see how both defenses play throughout the season and postseason to determine if he would even be an upgrade defensively like you've mentioned. This will be McDermott's first season calling plays so any comparison to previous seasons would be against Frazier. 

[Dopey]

22 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Since Einstein has determined the 4.2 year threshold to make a Super Bowl, now we know why the Bills have only played in 4 Super Bowls. The Bills just didn't give their coaches enough time.  The Bills have had 16 head coaches not counting interim coaches during the Super Boel era.  Only Saban, Knox, Levy and McDermott lasted at least 4.2 seasons.  Imagine if we had just let those other 12 guys coach long enough to make a Super Bowl.  They just left too soon.  How can we have expected more Super Bowls when 75% of the coaches weren't allowed to coach long enough to get there?  

 

Considering how often coaching turnover happens in the NFL, the 4.2 years to make a Super Bowl in the OP is total nonsense.  It's taking data that is beyond meaningless & spitting out a conclusion.  

 

I'd like to know how many HCs have made the playoffs 5 of their 1st 6 seasons.  I bet the list is pretty small.  How about a list of how long it took a coach to make the playoffs 5 times.  If you take every head coach in the Super Bowl era, I bet the % is very small since the majority don't even last 5 seasons.  

Einstein will get on it. You’ll have an answer soon. 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Hermes said:

Right, it is a massive difference.

On an incredibly limited sample size of 2(!) games,

 

Thus why I said (in my first response to you) that my opinion on Anarumo is not based on statistics, but my gut feeling watching him.

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

You created a whole new thread to change your narrative about winning it all

 

No, this did not happen. I can only give you the information. I can not make you understand it.

 

 

[Bad Things]

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, TBBills Fan said:

I did not realize you like Italian men

The first two sausages…easy peasy.  That 3rd one…I had to take a deep breath.  

[dickleyjones]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I can only give you the information. I can not make you understand it.

it appears no one here can make you understand it either. 

 

your opinion of mcdermott is fine. when it comes to statistics though, you really should stop, you are embarrassing yourself.

 

the cringe here is retatta level.

[Royale with Cheese]

It just seems there is always the feeling of deja vu lately.

[90sBills]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

McD hasn't been great in any of our playoff games except arguably vs. the Pats in '21 and the Ravens, but only defensively, the year prior.  

 

For example, how does one explain us giving up 19 points and nearly 200 yards in just over a quarter to allow Houston to tie us and then beat us in OT?  

 

Or how we couldn't generate more than 3 points in our 2017 playoff loss to Marrone/Bortles, and in our worst offensive performance of the season?  

 

Does coaching bear on that?  Some would say no, at least not significantly much less primarily, but I don't see how it doesn't.  

 

Thoughts?  

 

 

Coaching absolutely has an impact on those situations. Especially since they were playoff games. To me McDermott coaches too tight in the playoffs. Especially in crunch time and trying to close out games. He coaches not to lose so to speak. This has to permeate to the players. So they play tight trying to not make mistakes which inevitably will lead to mistakes. Since he’ll be the head coach for the foreseeable future I can only hope that he learns from past failures to succeed going forward.

 

Obviously players also have tremendous impact on outcome of games. Especially the QB. As Allen matures he’ll have a reservoir past experiences to draw from that will help him. Tough situations that he could hopefully overcome where his previous versions couldn’t. 

[Bad Things]

Are any of you meatheads, "Brian" who calls OneBillsLive?

[Chaos]

6 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

As Allen matures

Allen is mid-career.  He has put up record numbers in many regards.  His PRODUCTION has been top 3 for a couple of years.  The maturation has happened.  Bills fans should hope for an be happy if he maintains the current level of production.  Many many championships have been won with QBs producing far below Allen's level.  The burden is squarely on the coaches to figure out how to close the deal.  If the teams championship hopes are limited to Allen being more productive, then our chances are slim and none. 

[Hermes]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Thus why I said (in my first response to you) that my opinion on Anarumo is not based on statistics, but my gut feeling watching him.

 

 

Fair enough. I'll have to pay more attention to the Bengals this year (gross) to see if he's worth the hype. 

[Einstein]

44 minutes ago, dickleyjones said:

when it comes to statistics though, you really should stop, you are embarrassing yourself.

Feel free to point out a single instance of statistical wrongness.