DVOA has Bills the #1 projected team

[FitzShowUsYourTitz]

On 6/19/2023 at 8:45 PM, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Talking head praises team, therefore they’re a genius. Talking head criticizes the team, he’s an idiot.  Round and round we go 

Yessss.  I think I’ll go read the Colin Cowterd thread.  #ILoveRollercoasters

[Mikie2times]

We ranked 1st last year, 2nd in 2021, 4th in 2020. 1st/1st/4th if you count playoffs. I trust the DVOA rankings more than any other, but the system tends to rate us too high as a result of what we have done against bottom 3rd teams. If you told me a team ranked 1st, 2nd, and 4th in DVOA over a three year span it would be hard to not win a Super Bowl. Almost impossible to have not gone to one. DVOA just doesn't work as well with how our team produces output. Good to see though, nothing I'm saying is to suggest we won't have a great year. As so many have said, it comes down to what we do in the playoffs. 

[eball]

On 6/19/2023 at 8:45 PM, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Talking head praises team, therefore they’re a genius. Talking head criticizes the team, he’s an idiot.  Round and round we go 

 

That’s not how DVOA works.

 

[colin]

our super high dvoa shows that at our best we can beat anyone at any time in any situation, largely a function of our big play reducing D and our big play producing unicorn qb.  we tend to lose the same way, where we face a decent team who finds a weak spot and just keeps pressing it and we have no answer and allen tries playing on his head and making the impossible happen (sometimes too soon in the game, where he forces mistakes) and a block gets blown or someone drops a pass and we come up just short (or the d does the equivalent).  

 

the exciting part is we can fix this by handling some of the more basic business as usual football stuff w some blocking and running and adjustments on D.  i really think this year we made enough moves and mcd taking over the d will give the team a nasty and aggressive edge that will suit us better overall.