Deep dive ( McDermott )

[Shaw66]

Just now, Chaos said:

It seems many many people think the coaching choices are limited to McDermott, Rex Ryan and Dick Jauron.   If McDermott is replaced, the next coach could do worse.  But there is no actual reason to assume that. 

Well, as I've said, statistically there's a reason to assume the next coach would do worse.  It's called reversion to the mean.  Purely statistically, the probability is that the coach will be closer to the mean for coaches (which is .500 or so).  

 

But I agree, there's no reason to assume that would be true.  

 

Just realized that by leaving the DC position vacant, McDermott buys himself a little more job security.  As much as an owner might like to replace him with an offensive minded coach, if there's no DC in place, it's more problematic.   It means that both sides of the ball would have new leadership, and probably a new philosophy.   That's a lot to dump on a new coach's plate, especially because the new coach would be expected to win immediately.  

[Chaos]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, as I've said, statistically there's a reason to assume the next coach would do worse.  It's called reversion to the mean.  Purely statistically, the probability is that the coach will be closer to the mean for coaches (which is .500 or so).  

 

But I agree, there's no reason to assume that would be true.  

 

Just realized that by leaving the DC position vacant, McDermott buys himself a little more job security.  As much as an owner might like to replace him with an offensive minded coach, if there's no DC in place, it's more problematic.   It means that both sides of the ball would have new leadership, and probably a new philosophy.   That's a lot to dump on a new coach's plate, especially because the new coach would be expected to win immediately.  

The simplest thing for fans is Mr. McDermott leads the team to a super bowl win this year. I think we all hope for this. 

If McDermott had the same exact record with Tyrod Taylor as QB, we would all be demanding his enshrinment in Canton, and furious with Beane for not getting a better QB.    Allen is the level of QB coaches are expected to win Super Bowls with.   He is already second, behind only Dan Marino, as the best QB not to win a Super Bowl.  This is why McDermott should be viewed as on the hot seat. 

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

  He is already second, behind only Dan Marino, as the best QB not to win a Super Bowl.  This is why McDermott should be viewed as on the hot seat. 

This is where you lose me.   Being the best QB not to win a Super Bowl is not even a stat, and it doesn't mean anything.  

 

Why is it that anyone should jump to the conclusion that the failure to win a Super Bowl is on McDermott?   At the end of the loss to the Bengals, Diggs wasn't in McDermott's face.   He was in Allen's.   So, as I've said before, why is Allen's failure to win a Super Bowl on McDermott?

 

Saying McDermott is on the hot seat ignores every other explanation for not winning a Super Bowl in the last three seasons and simply lays it all at the feet of McDermott.  It's a premise I don't accept.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

17 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The simplest thing for fans is Mr. McDermott leads the team to a super bowl win this year. I think we all hope for this. 

If McDermott had the same exact record with Tyrod Taylor as QB, we would all be demanding his enshrinment in Canton, and furious with Beane for not getting a better QB.    Allen is the level of QB coaches are expected to win Super Bowls with.   He is already second, behind only Dan Marino, as the best QB not to win a Super Bowl.  This is why McDermott should be viewed as on the hot seat. 

The quote about Marino and Allen is just silly.  Moon and Kelly come to mind, both HOFers.  If you’re going to be silly better not to comment.

[Chaos]

33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is where you lose me.   Being the best QB not to win a Super Bowl is not even a stat, and it doesn't mean anything.  

 

Why is it that anyone should jump to the conclusion that the failure to win a Super Bowl is on McDermott?   At the end of the loss to the Bengals, Diggs wasn't in McDermott's face.   He was in Allen's.   So, as I've said before, why is Allen's failure to win a Super Bowl on McDermott?

 

Saying McDermott is on the hot seat ignores every other explanation for not winning a Super Bowl in the last three seasons and simply lays it all at the feet of McDermott.  It's a premise I don't accept.  

 

 

Its not me. It is virtually every owner and GM in the history of the NFL.  Marvin Lewis and Jeff Fishers long careers are viewed as failures by their teams in hindsight.  Its a simple fact, McDermott is the longest tenured coach in the NFL currently not to appear in a Super Bowl.  And he does not have the "no franchise QB excuse".  Historically it doesn't last.  Another season or two, and it becomes an historic outlier. 

30 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The quote about Marino and Allen is just silly.  Moon and Kelly come to mind, both HOFers.  If you’re going to be silly better not to comment.

You are so wrong. Allen is far better than Kelly and Moon, and ranks much higher among his peers than either every did. Don't clown people with nonsense. 

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Chaos said:

McDermott is the longest tenured coach in the NFL currently not to appear in a Super Bowl. 

This also is not a stat, just like Marino is not a stat. 

 

These things you're raising are just random facts that prove nothing.  

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Its not me. It is virtually every owner and GM in the history of the NFL.  Marvin Lewis and Jeff Fishers long careers are viewed as failures by their teams in hindsight.  Its a simple fact, McDermott is the longest tenured coach in the NFL currently not to appear in a Super Bowl.  And he does not have the "no franchise QB excuse".  Historically it doesn't last.  Another season or two, and it becomes an historic outlier. 

You are so wrong. Allen is far better than Kelly and Moon, and ranks much higher among his peers than either every did. Don't clown people with nonsense. 

You are being ridiculous at this point.

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This also is not a stat, just like Marino is not a stat. 

 

These things you're raising are just random facts that prove nothing.  

They are not random facts. They are results of the collective decisions of GMs and Owners for generations.  HC's are relieved based on results.  McDermott's results have gotten him as far as HCs get in the NFL without getting to the next step.  Its history. 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This also is not a stat, just like Marino is not a stat. 

 

These things you're raising are just random facts that prove nothing.  

 

And Marino didn't win one with a HoF coach.

[BullBuchanan]

15 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

It’s far from a vanilla defense … I very rarely trash players or coaches because i know how hard it is 

 

Frazier wasn’t running a JV defense 

 

he ran a basic nickel package … aka 6 man box … 4 line 2 backers 

 

And he didn’t have a penchant for blitzing… BUT

 

everything in the back end was very sophisticated… Your average two Bills Drive poster couldn’t tell the difference between a cover 3 cloud masked in a 2 shell or a Tampa 2

 

and Frazier like McDermott hid everything… cover 3 looks would be Tampa 2 post snap… feigning dual a gap man could be press quarters … single high safety looks back out to 2 deep

 

man on 1/3 of the field and bracket coverage on the other half 

 

very sophisticated coverages…

 

we definitely couldn’t execute them last year while hurt

 

15 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Frazier is more of an aggressive play caller than is perceived and it's not a vanilla defense when he has the majority of his starters available.  The problem is he's played too conservative against elite QB's in the playoffs and that's the lasting image we'll have of him.

 

14 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

It’s not about blitzing 6-7 like a madman all game 

 

it’s about strategic timing and down and distance ….

 

Frazier on 3 and 12 will feign pressure and drop 7 rush 4…. Not even a bad move with the bills ability to hide coverage 

 

McDermott and probably the correct answer in a big game is ….

 

show pressure … press man … And bring six… They can’t block it and you’re getting home before they could get 12 yards … He’s gonna have to get rid of it for a 4 yard dink and dunk or get sacked 

Sorry, I don't consider show Cover 3, play cover 2 post snap to be "very sophisticated".  It's also only half the defense. When it comes to the front 7 (or should I say front 6) it's about as pee-wee football as it gets. You can run cover 2 to cover 9 on the back-end all you want, but if you don't combine it with something up front, all a decent QB has to do is process post snap and wait for a receiver to find a hole, because he knows you're bringing 4 and he has 5 or 6 blockers.

If you don't provide even a credible threat to bring pressure, the QB knows he'll have all day back there and can just take his time. Sure, it works fine against the coaches on the hot seat and their bust QBS during the regular season, but then they get clowned in the playoffs against real competition. How many times do we have to see soft zones lined up off the TV screen in critical situations? How many blown 3rd and 15s where someone just picks them apart?

If McD actually had a solve for that in his scheme and he couldn't get Frazier to do it in big moments over 6 years, what does that say about his leadership ability?

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

This is where you lose me.   Being the best QB not to win a Super Bowl is not even a stat, and it doesn't mean anything.  

 

Why is it that anyone should jump to the conclusion that the failure to win a Super Bowl is on McDermott?   At the end of the loss to the Bengals, Diggs wasn't in McDermott's face.   He was in Allen's.   So, as I've said before, why is Allen's failure to win a Super Bowl on McDermott?

 

Saying McDermott is on the hot seat ignores every other explanation for not winning a Super Bowl in the last three seasons and simply lays it all at the feet of McDermott.  It's a premise I don't accept.  

 

 

13 seconds is the reason why! 

[Mat68]

The 13 seconds stuff I get but also dont.  Allen and Mahomes were red hot.  I was not ok and celebrating a win.  2 timeouts and needed to get to 40 to 50 yards.  Hill housed one 60 plus the previous drive.  Alot of arm chair coaches came out.  Squib it.  Ok they get it plus 20.  High and short maybe.  There wasnt a defense stopping either team that night. 

[jethro_tull]

On 6/16/2023 at 2:24 AM, Buffalo716 said:

I’ve had some time in the last couple weeks… To review Sean McDermott the defensive coordinator

 

Since he will be the guy most responsible for our success this season,.. As the head man and defensive shot caller

 

I’ve seen a lot of snaps from McDermott from Philadelphia through Carolina and even watching how the defense has morphed in Buffalo

 

I would not call him a schematic guru… but he learned from Jim Johnson … one of the best schematic blitzers

 

Many of Seans principles that he learned from Johnson have become Staples in the game… Such as loading up the box in a duel a gap pressure… Vintage Johnson McDermott.. or feigning pressure

 

Sean does rely on the talent of his front four… But as 4 doesn’t get home for a quarter and a half… He’s willing to bring five… And if five doesnt hit… 6

 

He will not let you sit back for 60 minutes and pick you apart while being comfortable…

 

He hides combination coverages… And prefers press man on third downs… He also gets the most out of every player he has over 15 years

 

nothing he does is super exotic.., but it serves a purpose… he will give you a look 4 times… and pull out and go coverage 4 straight … but the 5th… he brings 6 and you can’t block it 

 

his situational awareness stands out defensively… being complacent is a death sentence … he hides everything as good as anybody and don’t be surprised to see a lot more safety blitzes sprinkled in 

 

im 💯 confident with Sean and I’m excited to see our new look defense with new faces 

it will be interesting to see how the defense responds.  I am personally very optimistic.  

[Buffalo716]

If anybody Has any questions about some of the techniques And looks he favors I’m open for questions

 

Xs and Os

[Mat68]

Early this offseason I brought up the idea of Sean Payton.  Got laughed off.  I was angry about the ending of the season.  Looking back everything he weathered with the team he showed real strength and leadership.  Next year no Lombo you cant fire him.  You would have to have a guy you like more.  Only move is a Tampa style move.  LAR are rebuilding and have no draft capital.  Mcvay for Mcdermott a few picks… wild idea but who else?  An up and coming co ordinator?  That is wildly risky.  

Edited June 18, 2023 by Mat68

[Since1981]

essentially Beane is CEO. McD is COO. 
 

can someone point out a few coach McD actions that legit impressed you? Any play with a Name because it was so iconic? I’m seriously asking 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

The simplest thing for fans is Mr. McDermott leads the team to a super bowl win this year. I think we all hope for this. 

If McDermott had the same exact record with Tyrod Taylor as QB, we would all be demanding his enshrinment in Canton, and furious with Beane for not getting a better QB.    Allen is the level of QB coaches are expected to win Super Bowls with.   He is already second, behind only Dan Marino, as the best QB not to win a Super Bowl.  This is why McDermott should be viewed as on the hot seat. 

 

Yea. I am not sure I buy that.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

This is where you lose me.   Being the best QB not to win a Super Bowl is not even a stat, and it doesn't mean anything.  

 

Why is it that anyone should jump to the conclusion that the failure to win a Super Bowl is on McDermott?   At the end of the loss to the Bengals, Diggs wasn't in McDermott's face.   He was in Allen's.   So, as I've said before, why is Allen's failure to win a Super Bowl on McDermott?

 

Saying McDermott is on the hot seat ignores every other explanation for not winning a Super Bowl in the last three seasons and simply lays it all at the feet of McDermott.  It's a premise I don't accept.  

 

 

Allen is one of the greatest playoff quarterbacks in NFL history

 

Until proven otherwise McDermott is just another great regular season HC who can't hack it in the postseason

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, as I've said, statistically there's a reason to assume the next coach would do worse.  It's called reversion to the mean.  Purely statistically, the probability is that the coach will be closer to the mean for coaches (which is .500 or so).  

 

But I agree, there's no reason to assume that would be true.  

 

Just realized that by leaving the DC position vacant, McDermott buys himself a little more job security.  As much as an owner might like to replace him with an offensive minded coach, if there's no DC in place, it's more problematic.   It means that both sides of the ball would have new leadership, and probably a new philosophy.   That's a lot to dump on a new coach's plate, especially because the new coach would be expected to win immediately.  

 

I agree with the regression to the mean bit

 

But I don't think there's increased job security for McDermott in having no DC.

 

I believe the vast majority of the time, a new coach brings in his own OC, DC, and staff of assistants.

 

It's pretty much standard and expected to be on a new coach's plate.

[Mat68]

I think they are better then last year.  Lost Hyde, Lost Miller.  Mcdermott and Mcbeane have been super consistent.  The AFC is wild.  Also Mahomes is Mahomes.  Allen will have to match that.  Not just a bomb show.  He needs to be a surgeon and  butcher at any moment.  You gotta take the big play from busted coverage and also the 7 yard throw in the window to keep the drive alive.  Allen will have to take the thrown as unanimous best Qb for a playoff run.  Same goes Burrow, Herbert, Jackson or whoever.