Evaluating Head Coaches Methodology, and Applying it to current coaches.

[Chaos]

My simple methology for evaluating coaches, is to put them into one of three categories. (this applies to all sports and all levels).  

 

1. Generates results better than the talent on the roster would indicate
2. Achieves the results the talent on the roster would indicate
3. Achieves results worse than the talent on the roster would indicate. 

Four guys in the NFL seem to consistently fall into category 1.  John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid and and Bill Belichek.  I can't remember a single season where I felt like coaching held back thier respective teams.   I think Reid and Belichek have been blessed with better talent than Tomlin and Reid over time.  I don't think you really evaluate a coach on a single season.  By that metric Doug Pederson winning the super bowl with Nick Foles at QB, makes him the greatest coach of the 21st century.  I think Zac Taylor and Sean McVay can make the case they have gotten the most of out thier rosters, but they don't quite have the longevity of the other guys.  Not sure where I put Pete Carroll. I thought his most successful teams were stacked.  But ex-Seahawks don't seem to shine elsewhere. (maybe recency bias from R. Wilson).  So maybe Carroll is getting the most out the team.  

Among recent coaches I think Adam Gase is the leading example of cateogory three. Mike McCarthy may belong thier despite having actually won a super bowl.  

 

In history I think Joe Gibbs was the best for achieving results exceeding the roster.  


Are these three categories a reasonable summary way to evaluate a coach?

 

 

 

[Nextmanup]

You're never going to be able to objectively apply such a criteria.

 

Your results will be filled with subject opinions and conclusions, which invalidates the results.

 

You can guess however!  And you can have opinions, but don't present it as some sort of quasi-science.

 

 

[Chaos]

  On 6/16/2023 at 1:09 AM, Nextmanup said:

You're never going to be able to objectively apply such a criteria.

 

Your results will be filled with subject opinions and conclusions, which invalidates the results.

 

You can guess however!  And you can have opinions, but don't present it as some sort of quasi-science.

 

 

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wierd. never said it was scientific. I think its quite clearly subjective. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

  On 6/16/2023 at 12:58 AM, Chaos said:

My simple methology for evaluating coaches, is to put them into one of three categories. (this applies to all sports and all levels).  

 

1. Generates results better than the talent on the roster would indicate
2. Achieves the results the talent on the roster would indicate
3. Achieves results worse than the talent on the roster would indicate. 

Four guys in the NFL seem to consistently fall into category 1.  John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid and and Bill Belichek.  I can't remember a single season where I felt like coaching held back thier respective teams.   I think Reid and Belichek have been blessed with better talent than Tomlin and Reid over time.  I don't think you really evaluate a coach on a single season.  By that metric Doug Pederson winning the super bowl with Nick Foles at QB, makes him the greatest coach of the 21st century.  I think Zac Taylor and Sean McVay can make the case they have gotten the most of out thier rosters, but they don't quite have the longevity of the other guys.  Not sure where I put Pete Carroll. I thought his most successful teams were stacked.  But ex-Seahawks don't seem to shine elsewhere. (maybe recency bias from R. Wilson).  So maybe Carroll is getting the most out the team.  

Among recent coaches I think Adam Gase is the leading example of cateogory three. Mike McCarthy may belong thier despite having actually won a super bowl.  

 

In history I think Joe Gibbs was the best for achieving results exceeding the roster.  


Are these three categories a reasonable summary way to evaluate a coach?

 

 

 

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Not sure I'd put Reid or Tomlin i nthe top tier.  It took Reid about 15 years before he won.  In any of those years did he not have top talent?  Tomlin won when he had top talent, lately he hasn't done all that great.  Made the playoffs, but that's about it.  Agree on Harbaugh and Belichick

[Jay_Fixit]

2. - McDermott has failed immensely.

 

I’d say that if Buffalo brought in a better coach, this team would thrive.

 

I’d even say McDermott might be the Bulls version of Doug Collins.

[newcam2012]

  On 6/16/2023 at 2:18 AM, Jay_Fixit said:

2. - McDermott has failed immensely.

 

I’d say that if Buffalo brought in a better coach, this team would thrive.

 

I’d even say McDermott might be the Bulls version of Doug Collins.

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He's failed in the playoffs. He's done very well in the regular season. 

 

People are mostly happy with McD and his results. Most are willing to give him more time to thrive in the playoffs.

 

The next few seasons should tell us a lot about McD. 

[Jay_Fixit]

  On 6/16/2023 at 2:26 AM, newcam2012 said:

He's failed in the playoffs. He's done very well in the regular season. 

 

People are mostly happy with McD and his results. Most are willing to give him more time to thrive in the playoffs.

 

The next few seasons should tell us a lot about McD. 

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Lol.

 

He has one season.

[John from Riverside]

I always thought your defensive coaches were a run, the ball, the ton and defend on your defense guys
 

That doesn’t seem to be the case in Buffalo. We passed the ball all over the place.

[GoBills808]

  On 6/16/2023 at 6:10 AM, John from Riverside said:

I always thought your defensive coaches were a run, the ball, the ton and defend on your defense guys
 

That doesn’t seem to be the case in Buffalo. We passed the ball all over the place.

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We have Josh Allen

[GunnerBill]

This isn't a methodology. It is just subjective opinion.

 

Jesus, the season can't get here soone enough.

[BritBill]

  On 6/16/2023 at 4:33 AM, Jay_Fixit said:

Lol.

 

He has one season.

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Sounds like you're going to kill him if there's no Super Bowl. 

[MJS]

Hmm, I just use win percentage, playoff appearances, playoff wins, championships, and coach of the year awards. I feel like that gets me pretty close to how good a coach is.

[Jay_Fixit]

  On 6/16/2023 at 7:42 AM, BritBill said:

 

Sounds like you're going to kill him if there's no Super Bowl. 

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No. But if I ran a business I’d be looking for a new coach to lead this team if the Bills don’t get there this season.

[Gunsgoodtime]

If you truly believe Allen is a top 3 qb, our offense is top 3, defense top 5, 0 Superbowl appearances I don't see how you say its not a failure on coaching to not get the talent they have to the SB at least.  Many opportunities, many failures.  Almost any coach could get this team in the playoffs with Josh Allen.

[GunnerBill]

  On 6/16/2023 at 9:32 AM, Gunsgoodtime said:

If you truly believe Allen is a top 3 qb, our offense is top 3, defense top 5, 0 Superbowl appearances I don't see how you say its not a failure on coaching to not get the talent they have to the SB at least.  Many opportunities, many failures.  Almost any coach could get this team in the playoffs with Josh Allen.

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The problem is Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow are really good too. 

[ProcessTruster]

  On 6/16/2023 at 7:01 AM, GunnerBill said:

This isn't a methodology. It is just subjective opinion.

 

Jesus, the season can't get here soone enough.

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could not agree more.  this board has turned into the the "how many oblique ways can I say McD sucks" board.   very tired train of OPs. 

 

 Starting to think the NFL has its playoff format wrong , the all or nothing single elimination tournament format.   It causes fans to destructively dump on their team for an entire off season based on a single game, the outcome of which is driven by any number of fairly random factors no one would have anticipated.   

[nedboy7]

The same folks who claim Bean has not done a good job with free agency or the draft now want to spin a narrative that McD hasn’t done a good enough job with the massively loaded team?  Talk about conflicting narratives. 

[Fleezoid]

My "methology" is simple; make a good product and it'll be in high demand. The cash will just roll in. 

[Alphadawg7]

  On 6/16/2023 at 9:59 AM, ProcessTruster said:

could not agree more.  this board has turned into the the "how many oblique ways can I say McD sucks" board.   very tired train of OPs. 

 

 Starting to think the NFL has its playoff format wrong , the all or nothing single elimination tournament format.   It causes fans to destructively dump on their team for an entire off season based on a single game, the outcome of which is driven by any number of fairly random factors no one would have anticipated.   

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  On 6/16/2023 at 1:12 PM, nedboy7 said:

The same folks who claim Bean has not done a good job with free agency or the draft now want to spin a narrative that McD hasn’t done a good enough job with the massively loaded team?  Talk about conflicting narratives. 

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This the same poster that during the draft kept making long lists of the obvious players still on the board the Bills might take with their next pick so he could clout chase and say "he correctly predicted the pick" lol

 

So no surprise to see him frame a thread like this to back door his way into a narrative he is trying manufacture of slamming McD again

Edited June 16, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[hondo in seattle]

  On 6/16/2023 at 12:58 AM, Chaos said:

My simple methology for evaluating coaches, is to put them into one of three categories. (this applies to all sports and all levels).  

 

1. Generates results better than the talent on the roster would indicate
2. Achieves the results the talent on the roster would indicate
3. Achieves results worse than the talent on the roster would indicate. 

Four guys in the NFL seem to consistently fall into category 1.  John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid and and Bill Belichek.  I can't remember a single season where I felt like coaching held back thier respective teams.   I think Reid and Belichek have been blessed with better talent than Tomlin and Reid over time.  I don't think you really evaluate a coach on a single season.  By that metric Doug Pederson winning the super bowl with Nick Foles at QB, makes him the greatest coach of the 21st century.  I think Zac Taylor and Sean McVay can make the case they have gotten the most of out thier rosters, but they don't quite have the longevity of the other guys.  Not sure where I put Pete Carroll. I thought his most successful teams were stacked.  But ex-Seahawks don't seem to shine elsewhere. (maybe recency bias from R. Wilson).  So maybe Carroll is getting the most out the team.  

Among recent coaches I think Adam Gase is the leading example of cateogory three. Mike McCarthy may belong thier despite having actually won a super bowl.  

 

In history I think Joe Gibbs was the best for achieving results exceeding the roster.  


Are these three categories a reasonable summary way to evaluate a coach?

 

 

 

Expand  

 

I evaluate the same way: results versus talent.  So, yes, it's reasonable.  I can't imagine doing it any other way.  

  On 6/16/2023 at 1:12 PM, nedboy7 said:

The same folks who claim Bean has not done a good job with free agency or the draft now want to spin a narrative that McD hasn’t done a good enough job with the massively loaded team?  Talk about conflicting narratives. 

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I've noticed that.  

 

We haven't won a SB, yet, but we are winning a lot of games.  So between Beane and McD, one of them must be doing something right.