Is Sean McDermott our version of Doug Collins?

[Mike in Horseheads]

37 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Or defining it

I think Josh is a great QB but he certainly not MJ of the NFL

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

I think Josh is a great QB but he certainly not MJ of the NFL

Maybe if we had one of the greatest HCs of all time in place we could make that call, right now all we know is he's one of the most gifted QBs ever. And we're apparently content to just tick each passing season off his career one by one waiting for McDermott to figure it out.

[Dr. K]

No

[billsfan89]

Doug Collins is not the best comparison, I would say that Marty Schottenheimer is the better analogy. Marty ball turned around three organizations. The Browns were pretty bad before he got there and he turned them into a contender but always came up short in the playoffs.

 

KC had only made the playoffs once in 17 seasons prior to Marty getting there and they made the playoffs fairly consistently with Marty having a great run in Montana’s last couple of years. But once again falling short. 
 

Then Marty completed a solid rebuild of the Chargers turning them into a contender before playoff failures. 
 

McD will at least have two more seasons to get It done in Buffalo but if he falls short then he will be this teams Marty

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

He really did have success as a DC. That's why he was a top contender for HC jobs for a couple of years.

 

Averaging those stats doesn't really present a full or fair picture.

 

Throw out his first year for example, when he didn't have the pieces in place, and the average gets much better. 14.4th in points and 9.8th in yards.

 

And as I've been pointing out for decades now, Points Against is as much a team stat as a defensive stat. Points scored by opponent defenses count against your own defense in this stat. If your QB throws a pick six, somehow your defense has seven more points charged against it. The opponent runs back a punt or a kick for a TD? Your defense's Points Allowed goes up by seven points. On the face of it, that's dumb.

 

And that doesn't even include the fact that where the opponent's offense gets the ball is a huge factor in the likelihood of scoring points. If your RB fumbles and their team recovers on your own 20 yard-line, the EPA for your team is minus 5.5 points. Starting at your opponent's 20 gives you an EPA of minus 0.2. It's a huge difference and it simply means that when it comes to how many points teams score against your defense, your own offense and STs have a large share of that. If your quarterback is sacked on fourth down at your own one-yard-line and the defense knocks them back to the four in three plays and they kick a field goal, that's a tremendous stand by your defense that looks like a failure in PA, as it shows the defense as allowing three points.

 

Yards do a much much greater job in isolating the performance of the defense. If the other team runs back a kick for a TD, it doesn't affect the defense's Yards Allowed, which is exactly what should happen to isolate defensive performance. Your QB is sacked in the end zone? No affect on Yards Allowed, but somehow your team's defense is charged two points in Points Allowed. Leodis fumbles a kick and it's recovered on the five yard line and they drive the five yards and score a TD? Your defense is charged five yards, which is what they should be charged for.

 

Yard Allowed is a much better measure of defensive success, and McDermott's YA figures in Carolina look like this:

 

2011 28th rookie seaYouson with a scheme switch

2012 10th

2013 2nd

2014 10th

2015 6th

2016 21st

 

That still leaves a very serious drop in 2016. That absolutely has to be taken into any consideration. But four years of being a top ten D is sustained success.  

 

That's why he was a top head coaching candidate. He was very successful.

 

 

You know, Thurm, it's even more complicated than that.  I don't have a dog in this fight, but just for hahas, I took a look at time of possession in some of those later years, and Carolina was top five.  So if they're that lopsided in time of possession, its probably because they have a good offense (and, in fact, a good running offense, which Carolina had).   So, those Carolina defenses also had the advantage of defending fewer plays than most other defenses.  So, yards, also, may not be the best indicator. 

 

But I agree with your more subjective argument, which is simply that McDermott was recognized around the league as a top defensive coordinator and head coach candidate.  People in the league know who is getting the job done, and who isn't.  

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Doug Collins is not the best comparison, I would say that Marty Schottenheimer is the better analogy. Marty ball turned around three organizations. The Browns were pretty bad before he got there and he turned them into a contender but always came up short in the playoffs.

 

KC had only made the playoffs once in 17 seasons prior to Marty getting there and they made the playoffs fairly consistently with Marty having a great run in Montana’s last couple of years. But once again falling short. 
 

Then Marty completed a solid rebuild of the Chargers turning them into a contender before playoff failures. 
 

McD will at least have two more seasons to get It done in Buffalo but if he falls short then he will be this teams Marty

 

This is EXACTLY how I see it. 

[McBean]

17 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

  I was watching some old stuff on the NBA and it kinda hit me the parallels the Bills have to the pre Phill Jackson Bulls. 
  Doug Collins their coach took over a franchise that was in disarray even after drafting one Michael Jordan two years earlier. 
  They became a consistent playoff team under Doug but couldn’t get over the hump til management decided Doug just wasn’t the guy and brought in Phill. 
  Seems like the National Media is starting to ask if you have this all world QB why haven’t you gotten farther and now it appears after today the National Media is starting to kinda zero in on Sean as the scapegoat in the Steff Diggs stuff. 
  I like Sean alot and remember the debacle he took over from Rex but have we reached the point where if they don’t win it this year do Terry and Brandon say it’s time to go in a different direction? 

Thanks a lot for stealing my thunder.

 

Been saying and using this analogy since the end of the KC game in January 2022.

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Doug Collins is not the best comparison, I would say that Marty Schottenheimer is the better analogy. Marty ball turned around three organizations. The Browns were pretty bad before he got there and he turned them into a contender but always came up short in the playoffs.

 

KC had only made the playoffs once in 17 seasons prior to Marty getting there and they made the playoffs fairly consistently with Marty having a great run in Montana’s last couple of years. But once again falling short. 
 

Then Marty completed a solid rebuild of the Chargers turning them into a contender before playoff failures. 
 

McD will at least have two more seasons to get It done in Buffalo but if he falls short then he will be this teams Marty

Well, I certainly get the comparison, but I don't think it made sense, for several reasons.   First, like McDermott, Schotty was a defensive coach, but part of his problem as a head coach was that he was unimaginative, particularly on offenses.   He had only occasional seasons with good offensive teams.  McDermott's Bills got good on offense pretty quickly.   Second, the real complaint about Schotty was that teams couldn't win in the playoffs, and I know that's the charge against McDermott, but Schotty was in a class by himself.  He was 5 and 13 in 20 seasons; McDermott is 4 and 5 in six years.  McDermott has a lot more success getting to the playoffs, and a lot more success in the playoffs.  

 

 

[Jay_Fixit]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Maybe if we had one of the greatest HCs of all time in place we could make that call, right now all we know is he's one of the most gifted QBs ever. And we're apparently content to just tick each passing season off his career one by one waiting for McDermott to figure it out.

Nah man. We’re good with making playoffs and not advancing to Superbowls whatsoever.

 

McDermott is a severely flawed coach and this year is the year. Otherwise the Bills can find someone better.

[schoolhouserock]

No.

 

All of these comparisons… McD is like Marty… McD is like Doug… They are all flawed from the outset. This is an attempt to simplify a concept to such a degree that it loses all meaning.

[What a Tuel]

9 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Do you not see all of the very successful hires out there like Doug Pederson, Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay? Where did they come from, the ether?

 

If you do a proper job at vetting candidates, and with some luck, you could get a HC like one of them... to not to even try and continue to accept Marty Schottenheimer-like coaching is UNACCEPTABLE.

 

Kyle Shanahan lost the Super Bowl and has never won one.

Doug Pederson won one 👍

Sean McVay:

• Year 1 Lost in Wild Card (11-5)
• Year 2 Lost his 1st Super Bowl with a pathetic 3 point peformance in his 2nd year of coaching the Rams. (13-3)
  • Edit and this is absolutely positively worse than 13 seconds by faaaaaaar.
• Year 3 Did not go to playoffs (9-7)
• Year 4 Lost in Divisional (10-6)
• I am 99.99999% sure if he did this with the Bills you guys would have been making posts saying we need to make a change just as you are doing now. Imagine that Year 5 he won the Super Bowl.
  • Edit 2 I also think he was incredibly lucky to get the Bengals this year. The Bills or Chiefs probably would've led to another embarrassment. But he got the ring so it doesn't matter. 

The idea that McDermott can't do this because he is in Year 6 and not Year 5, is so dumb.

 

Edit: I also don't understand why McDermott and Beane don't get at least some acknowledgement that they strive to get over that hump. They came a long way from that 2020 team that got stomped by the best team in the league.

 

Edited June 16, 2023 by What a Tuel

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, What a Tuel said:

 

Kyle Shanahan lost the Super Bowl and has never won one.

Doug Pederson won one 👍

Sean McVay:

• Year 1 Lost in Wild Card (11-5)
• Year 2 Lost his 1st Super Bowl with a pathetic 3 point peformance in his 2nd year of coaching the Rams. (13-3)
• Year 3 Did not go to playoffs (9-7)
• Year 4 Lost in Divisional (10-6)
• I am 99.99999% sure if he did this with the Bills you guys would have been making posts saying we need to make a change just as you are doing now. Imagine that Year 5 he won the Super Bowl.

The idea that McDermott can't do this because he is in Year 6 and not Year 5, is so dumb.

 

To be clear I think McD will be here through 2025 at least and no sane person would dump him after this season. My personal view is that if this season results in another playoff choke then McD should be on the hot seat for 2024 somewhat at least. 
 

But It would take back to back playoff failures and a great coach on the market for me to even consider moving off the coach that completely turned around the organization from one of the worst eras in modern NFL history. 

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

They came a long way from that 2020 team that got stomped by the best team in the league.

 

They came a long way from getting stomped in the AFC Championship by getting stomped in the AFC Divisional?

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is EXACTLY how I see it. 

Marty never had one of the top 3 QBs in his prime.  I think Dan Reeves is the better comparison. Good coach, just not as good as Mike Shanahan. 

[JaCrispy]

4 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

I think Josh is a great QB but he certainly not MJ of the NFL

I would have to agree with this with the caveat that he certainly has the capability of being the MJ of the NFL if …

 

1- he improves his decision making

 

and

 

2- he banishes “Sugar High Josh” to the Island of Misfit Toys…😉

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, schoolhouserock said:

No.

 

All of these comparisons… McD is like Marty… 

 

McFly?  

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

16 hours ago, BillsfaninChicago said:

He could be our Billy Martin and serve multiple stints as our head coach. You never know…you just never know

Billy Martin was the Yankees Lou Saban

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, What a Tuel said:

 

Kyle Shanahan lost the Super Bowl and has never won one.

Doug Pederson won one 👍

Sean McVay:

• Year 1 Lost in Wild Card (11-5)
• Year 2 Lost his 1st Super Bowl with a pathetic 3 point peformance in his 2nd year of coaching the Rams. (13-3)
  • Edit and this is absolutely positively worse than 13 seconds by faaaaaaar.
• Year 3 Did not go to playoffs (9-7)
• Year 4 Lost in Divisional (10-6)
• I am 99.99999% sure if he did this with the Bills you guys would have been making posts saying we need to make a change just as you are doing now. Imagine that Year 5 he won the Super Bowl.
  • Edit 2 I also think he was incredibly lucky to get the Bengals this year. The Bills or Chiefs probably would've led to another embarrassment. But he got the ring so it doesn't matter. 

The idea that McDermott can't do this because he is in Year 6 and not Year 5, is so dumb.

 

Edit: I also don't understand why McDermott and Beane don't get at least some acknowledgement that they strive to get over that hump. They came a long way from that 2020 team that got stomped by the best team in the league.

 

McVay didn't have the QB talent McD does

McD doesn't have a SB appearance.  Neither did Dungy before he was replaced in Tampa.  If McD had made a SB appearance by now there would be less than 2% of people wanting a change.  We are fans but we aren't that crazy.  

 

And where have they come since 2020?  2020 was a AFC Championship loss, 2021 was a dominant home WC round win and a Division round loss due to coaching error, and 2022 was a barely escaped with a WC win against a third string QB and RB and an embarrassing Division loss at home.  Not sure how you see that as coming a long way.  At best it is treading water at worst it's trending down.  

 

 

[What a Tuel]

15 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

McVay didn't have the QB talent McD does

McD doesn't have a SB appearance.  Neither did Dungy before he was replaced in Tampa.  If McD had made a SB appearance by now there would be less than 2% of people wanting a change.  We are fans but we aren't that crazy.  

 

And where have they come since 2020?  2020 was a AFC Championship loss, 2021 was a dominant home WC round win and a Division round loss due to coaching error, and 2022 was a barely escaped with a WC win against a third string QB and RB and an embarrassing Division loss at home.  Not sure how you see that as coming a long way.  At best it is treading water at worst it's trending down.  

 

McVay is an offensive minded coach who scored 3 points in a super bowl. That is vastly worse than 13 seconds even with Goff. Vastly worse.

 

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

They came a long way from getting stomped in the AFC Championship by getting stomped in the AFC Divisional?

 

Pretty sure Chiefs are rated as the best team in the league and we went from:

 

Chiefs win 26-17

Chiefs win 38-24

Bills win 38-20

Bills lose 42-36

Bills win 24-20

 

It is beyond stupid to suggest that the team has not made the improvements needed to get over the hump.

 

2022 was an anomaly season. But sure blame the coach if it makes you feel better. 

Edited June 16, 2023 by What a Tuel

[Jay_Fixit]

2 hours ago, schoolhouserock said:

No.

 

All of these comparisons… McD is like Marty… McD is like Doug… They are all flawed from the outset. This is an attempt to simplify a concept to such a degree that it loses all meaning.

No? Lol.

So with this roster you’re sure we can’t bring in a coach that can bring it all together and be better than the team has shown?

 

This is a perfect thread and it’s closer to 100% yes than anything less than that.

 

 

15 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

McVay is an offensive minded coach who scored 3 points in a super bowl. That is vastly worse than 13 seconds even with Goff. Vastly worse.

 

 

Pretty sure Chiefs are rated as the best team in the league and we went from:

 

Chiefs win 26-17

Chiefs win 38-24

Bills win 38-20

Bills lose 42-36

Bills win 24-20

 

It is beyond stupid to suggest that the team has not made the improvements needed to get over the hump.

 

2022 was an anomaly season. But sure blame the coach if it makes you feel better. 

Ya. That’s why he’s Doug Collins.

 

Or keep defending an immensely flawed coach who’s just good enough to get a talented team to the playoffs.