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Posted (edited)

My feeling is that the Bills will win fewer regular season games in 2023 than they did in 2022. However, I think the 2023 team has a legitimate shot at performing better in the playoffs than the 2022 team.

 

My reasoning is that the AFC as a whole is better this year than last, but that the other “top” teams (KC and CIN) are not necessarily any better off this year than last.

Edited by schoolhouserock
Posted

If your not concerned you aren't paying attention.

 

Diggs feud with Allen has come to a climax (since Josh got with Diggs then GF, a local bartender pregnant, so Diggs retaliated by hooking up with @brittwill and Josh found out the night before the Bengals game).

 

This led the team to cancel practice since everyone was butthurt about the whole situation. 

 

The roster is currently in shambles because Beane drafted a TE who's role will be almost exclusively to block when their biggest need was at pass catcher and they spent the money they freed up with the Oliver extension on a washed pass rusher instead of Dhop.

 

On top of the fact they decided to pointedly ignore the offense this offseason and also failed to retain Edmunds, I don't see how you can see this offseason as anything other than an abject failure.

 

I'll be surprised if the Bills win even one game this season.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Hermes said:

If your not concerned you aren't paying attention.

 

Diggs feud with Allen has come to a climax (since Josh got with Diggs then GF, a local bartender pregnant, so Diggs retaliated by hooking up with @brittwill and Josh found out the night before the Bengals game).

 

This led the team to cancel practice since everyone was butthurt about the whole situation. 

 

The roster is currently in shambles because Beane drafted a TE who's role will be almost exclusively to block when their biggest need was at pass catcher and they spent the money they freed up with the Oliver extension on a washed pass rusher instead of Dhop.

 

On top of the fact they decided to pointedly ignore the offense this offseason and also failed to retain Edmunds, I don't see how you can see this offseason as anything other than an abject failure.

 

I'll be surprised if the Bills win even one game this season.

 

C'mon.  Even the ''68 Bills, who went through 5 quarterbacks, won one game.  

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Posted
5 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Major weakness is still there and not going to change, but I'll say it:  McBeane are the primary issue.  Why?  Because their vision of NFL football with a franchise QB has not changed much since Josh elevated his play.  

 

McD still loves his defense too much for a HC originating from that side of the ball.  He can't help himself to add another DLineman that supports his demand for an ultra deep DL.  Every year they have to add another 2-3 UFAs there at rates above market value.  They can spend another 10M+ on Floyd, Ford, Phillips, but shudder the thought of adding a better WR2.  It's been rare the offense was a priority in UFA when relatively proven veterans were available.       

 

And their drafts haven't been stellar either.   Too many 1st-3rd round picks that have been pedestrian or underwhelming which forces them to go UFA shopping which impacts their cap. 

 

Lot of people here always talking individual position improvement, but I'm waiting for the HC and GM to start getting better in off-season decisions.    

 


I think the over investment on defense was a true concern in 2021 and 2022. But this past offseason the Bills spent their top 2 draft picks on what we’re largely regarded to be the best TE and Guard in the draft. They also spend their biggest free agent contract (McGovern) at guard. McBeane also kept Hines, added Hardy and signed a pair of power RB’s. 
 

While the cap space was more limited what little they could do was shifted more towards the offense this offseason. Outside of Floyd who doesn’t cost much I haven’t seen too much added to the defense. 
 

The Bills are also still in on Dhop at the very least attempting to address the WR core.

Posted (edited)

 

55 minutes ago, Hermes said:

If your not concerned you aren't paying attention.

 

Diggs feud with Allen has come to a climax (since Josh got with Diggs then GF, a local bartender pregnant, so Diggs retaliated by hooking up with @brittwill and Josh found out the night before the Bengals game).

 

This led the team to cancel practice since everyone was butthurt about the whole situation. 

 

The roster is currently in shambles because Beane drafted a TE who's role will be almost exclusively to block when their biggest need was at pass catcher and they spent the money they freed up with the Oliver extension on a washed pass rusher instead of Dhop.

 

On top of the fact they decided to pointedly ignore the offense this offseason and also failed to retain Edmunds, I don't see how you can see this offseason as anything other than an abject failure.

 

I'll be surprised if the Bills win even one game this season.

cool story, I got a laugh!

Edited by snamsnoops
Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 6:39 PM, billsfan89 said:

Secondary - Even 

The Bills were really shaky at CB going into 2022. Tre was coming off a serious injury and likely to miss time and not come back to form. Elam was drafted in round 1 but still a rookie. Outside of T.Johnson there wasn't much stability. But the back end at safety induced more confidence going into 2022. Not only were Hyde and Poyer a year younger but they weren't coming off major injuries. Going into 2023 I like Tre to have a return to form and Elam, Benford, and Dane Jackson are all more experienced this season. But I am also less confident in Po and Hyde both a year older and Hyde coming off a serious injury and Po coming off a year where he was really banged up. The Bills do have better depth at safety with Hamlin getting some snaps and Rapp a solid vet backup. Overall even money for me. 

 

Linebacker - Worse in 2023

The Bills entered into 2022 with Milano and Edumonds two high-quality young LB's and Edumonds was entering into a contract year so extra motivation on him, the depth at LB was not really all that great. Going into 2023 Milano is still there but Edumonds is going being replaced by Klein a decent vet and a third-round pick in Dorian Williams. I know a lot of people on here weren't Edumonds fans and I agree with the decision not to resign him. But the Bills will likely see a decline in LB play unless Williams or another player on the roster overachieves. 

 

Defensive line - Even 

If it weren't for Von's injury I would rate 2023 as having an edge with the Poona Ford and Floyd additions. But despite getting a second quality NT and a nice vet pass rusher in Floyd Von coming off a serious injury causes a lot of concern. Feeling about equal, I think the Bills should have a top-quality D-line going into both 2022 and 2023. 

 

The defense overall - Slightly worse going into 2023

I liked the defense in 2022 to be the best defense if not at least a top 3 unit going into 2023. But with the likely decline of LB play I think the Bills defense may regress a bit but should still be a top 7-10 unit in the league and could easily be a top 5 unit. But I do think that the defense will feel the absence of Edumonds and there are some more holes going into 2023. Still, the defense should be a good unit. 

 

Ok, so ... having Tre White and Micah Hyde completely healthy and Kaiir Elam in his second year is "even."

Makes sense. You're saying there won't be much of a difference.

 

But then ... you're saying that because Von Miller is not completely healthy, the defensive line is "even" despite adding good players in Ford and Floyd?

 

...what?

 

Posted (edited)

To some it up, I think the Bills are strained. They're trying to keep as much of the 2020-2022 team together as possible, fighting age, cost and morale/confidence with three straight Playoff loses. 

 

 

The cap is strained. Beane has done everything he possibly can to retain as much of the 2020 jump team as he can. 

 

While Frazier doesn't feel like a big loss, his departure, combined with Daboll the year before, and Joe Schoen, and Chad Hall, there is some outward trend. 

 

The team largely took the same approach on Offensive Line - solid veterans, fringe starter types, but no bank breaking. Obviously, Torrence is the big play here. Banking on Spencer Brown at RT, risky to me. 

 

The team turned over the bottom 3 WRs as they should have - no more McKenzie, Kumerow or Crowder, now Harty, Sherfield and Shorter. I think that's warranted. 

 

At running back, they have a mixture of size, power, speed, receiving. The National media keeps calling for more and more, but I don't see the need. 

 

Defensively, can't argue with low-cost signings of Rapp & Floyd. But same as offense, largely focused on bringing as much back as they could. 

 

 

 

McDermott is garnering more scrutiny, not from ownership it seems, but more from the fanbase. Now he is coordinating the defense as well, no more Frazier excuses come Playoff time. 

 

Pressure is on Dorsey to perform. 

 

Allen is saying he is more focused on football than ever, and admitted he is working out more as before (Kyle Brandt's basement interview) he said his talent helped him get bye. 

 

Diggs has been frustrated since the Bengals game, and I think he's been consistent in his frustration with the Playoff loses going back to the Rich Eisen interview at the Super Bowl. He's 29/30 and starting his 4th year in Buffalo. 

 

Von Miller is getting old, and is coming off another injury. 

 

 

Feels like one last hurray with this core to get it done. At this moment I don't fear the Jets or the Dolphins, even if they got by us, no way they are better than Cincinnati or the Chiefs. But in the end, I want to see what Allen can do this season. He's been at the same production level for the past 3 seasons, so is there a (small) higher gear? 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Straight Hucklebuck
Posted

There is not a doubt in my mind that the talent on this team is better overall than it was a year ago.

 

That said, do I feel better about the team right now as I did heading into the season as I did last year?  I don't know.

 

The fact is, while I feel the talent is better overall, the coaching on this team is still a concern to me.  They consistently have been out-coached in big games every year.  Until I see evidence that this has changed, I am not sure how I can feel better.  Getting rid of Frazier on the surface seems like an upgrade.  But make no mistake about it....McDermott has been a big part of this defense since the day he got here.  So, how much of a change will we see on that side of the ball?  Guess we'll have to wait and see.  As for Dorsey, he didn't have a creative bone in his body last season.  Will that change this year?  Who knows.

 

So do I feel better overall?  I am not so sure until this coaching staff shows me something positive.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

 

Ok, so ... having Tre White and Micah Hyde completely healthy and Kaiir Elam in his second year is "even."

Makes sense. You're saying there won't be much of a difference.

 

But then ... you're saying that because Von Miller is not completely healthy, the defensive line is "even" despite adding good players in Ford and Floyd?

 

...what?

 


Poyer was banged up all last year and is a year older while Hyde is a year older coming off a serious injury so while I like the corner play to be better due to the factors you mentioned, I am concerned about decreasing play from an aging safety tandem.

Posted
1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

I could see it going the opposite way as well… where they finally put it altogether and get to a SB. 

I am endeavoring to persevere and not get too up or down at this point.

Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 6:51 PM, Process said:

It's the best roster we've had in the Josh Allen era for sure. 

 

Last off-season felt way better because the way the season before ended compared to this year. 

 

But the roster is as good as ever. Hopefully they can put it all together.

Agree with your sentiments Process.  Roster looks great on paper this year.  See a lot more potential on O line.  Love drafting Kincaid and signing Harris and Murray at RB.  Signing Ford and Floyd on D line are good moves also.  Letting Edmunds and Frazier go was smart.  Edmunds was certainly not a game changer.  And our defense was predictable and passive under Frazier.  I think McDermott puts a different spin on how we play on D.  Tough schedule in the second half of the year.  But I think this will be a very good team that gets better over the course of the season.  And Josh Allen is going to dominate.  With a decent O line and a big time TE in Kincaid to go with our other weapons, who is really going to stop our offense?

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Posted

Feel this is a very good roster but is possibly not going to get as many wins and may not win division. Just more competitive this season division wise particularly in my opinion. Put me down as cautiously optimistic.

Posted
15 hours ago, Hermes said:

If your not concerned you aren't paying attention.

 

Diggs feud with Allen has come to a climax (since Josh got with Diggs then GF, a local bartender pregnant, so Diggs retaliated by hooking up with @brittwill and Josh found out the night before the Bengals game).

 

This led the team to cancel practice since everyone was butthurt about the whole situation. 

 

The roster is currently in shambles because Beane drafted a TE who's role will be almost exclusively to block when their biggest need was at pass catcher and they spent the money they freed up with the Oliver extension on a washed pass rusher instead of Dhop.

 

On top of the fact they decided to pointedly ignore the offense this offseason and also failed to retain Edmunds, I don't see how you can see this offseason as anything other than an abject failure.

 

I'll be surprised if the Bills win even one game this season.

 

Do you think the plan is to have Knox and Kincaid to run routes and end up in the same spot together and get in a single file line?

 

You see just one tall white guy standing with his arms down.  And then all of a sudden, 4 arms go up!  There's no way you can throw an incomplete pass to four arms can you?

 

image.png.fefa8b5402e97eb5d034b5ee54d64918.png

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Posted
16 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

C'mon.  Even the ''68 Bills, who went through 5 quarterbacks, won one game.  

Apparently that ties the '87 Patriots for the most Qbs to start in a season. (They went 8-7! But missed the playoffs lol)

 

I can't imagine how a modern NFL team would fair under those condition. The game is so nuanced now that having a QB who presumably wasn't on the roster to learn the offense would be a nightmare. 

 

Realistically, I'm jaded from the way that last season ended. That being said, I think the Bills have as good a shot as any team to win the Superbowl.

Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Do you think the plan is to have Knox and Kincaid to run routes and end up in the same spot together and get in a single file line?

 

You see just one tall white guy standing with his arms down.  And then all of a sudden, 4 arms go up!  There's no way you can throw an incomplete pass to four arms can you?

 

image.png.fefa8b5402e97eb5d034b5ee54d64918.png

I heard rumblings they're calling it the Vishnu formation but I didn't want to post about it because I think that's the Bills secret weapon this year. How many times did we see McKittrick and Gabe try it out last year? The height difference was simply insurmountable...

 

 

Edited by Hermes
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Posted

I feel significantly less optimism than I did last season.

I feel our decision not to acquire a starting caliber MLB was a gross misstep. There are still players ont he market I'd be happy with, but they seem content to roll with a bunch of 220 lb third-rate prospects. I expect this to be a constant point of pain for our defense this season and won't be shocked if it's ultimately our undoing.

Our decision to not address WR2 is another area where I think we've intentionally shot ourselves in the foot. By not addressing the position, the Bills have put an implicit vote of confidence behind Gabe Davis, and I expect him to fail to rise to the occasion. People will point to Kincaid, but the history on production of Rookie Tight Ends is pretty clear that we shouldn't be expecting massive production, even if he turn into a top player.

Our RB room, while marginally improved, is still a RB by committee without a truly elite threat. Lots of teams win without elite threats, but I'd feel better if we had a player back there that gave us a way to win without Josh Allen.

I don't expect our offensive line to be massively improved, despite investments. Dawkins is still a middling LT, Morse is a middling and aging C who is a concussion away from retirement and Spencer Brown is still a liability at RT until proven otherwise. I don't see a medicore veteran guard or unproven rookie guard being the difference makers others do.


I wouldn't feel ok betting on the bills to win the superbowl at anything lower than +3000. I just can't draw a path to them winning it all that doens't involve injuries to other teams

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Posted
On 6/14/2023 at 6:44 PM, GETTOTHE50 said:

and we are better at LB with edmunds gone. that was textbook addition by subtraction. 

The Bills have allowed 19.5 ppg and 306 ypg since 2018. During that same time they allowed 25.4 ppg and 346 ypg in games that Edmunds missed. The defense has been objectively much worse without Edmunds since he was drafted. Like it’s not even up for debate.

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