Dalvin Cook released.

[Einstein's Dog]

59 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

My way of dealing with that is to treat the really long runs as, say, 25 yard runs because 81 just skews everything so much. If you treat it as a 25 yard run -- which is really good but also a pretty common result in an NFL game -- he's 14 carries for 63 yards. That's 4.5 yards per carry -- which was pretty much his season average!

That's an incredibly poor way to even consider evaluating RBs.  The 81 yarder was considerably better than someone elses' 30 yarder that doesn't score.  I don't see the reasoning in taking an exceptional result and making it count the same as "really good but also a pretty common result".

 

My adjusted metric would be for an RB to get an aypc (Adjusted Yard Per Carry) that doesn't count TDs or 1st downs unless they are over his average,  A typical stat line would then say the RB had 25 attempts for 100 yds, 2 TDs, 7FDs (First Downs) and an aypc of 5.3.  This way you are not negatively impacting an RB for getting the tough 1-2 yard 1st down or TD.

 

Singletary's ypc looked good, but one factor was the Bills wouldn't even give it to him when they needed two yards.

 

 

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

Again, if he tells the Bills he wants to come here for a year or 2 on a team friendly deal to be with his brother, we'll listen.

If he's looking for 5mil + then no 

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Taking extreme outliers away from a dataset is most cases provided for a more accurate conclusion.  
 

For example, let’s say cook was burning us for 10 yards a clip, than fumbles the ball from his RZ, where’s its kicked around and eventually recovered for an 81 yard loss.  Now his 20 rushes for 200 yards looks like 21 rushes for 119 or 5.6 yards per carry. I’m a huge fan of Dalvin, I draft him nearly every year for fantasy but his 81 yard run in which he made one cut, hit a gaping hole and was never touched had nothing to do with how good he is (and he is exceptional) it had to do with how awful the Bills defense executed on that play.  Any RB that runs a sub 4.8 takes that 81 yards to the house.  

Poor tackling?  He wasn’t touched on the play.  He wasn’t even breathed on.  

two cuts, second one set up Benford for that really poor attempt at tackle

 

it was a great run imo, takes vision to cut that back inside and then crazy speed to go for 6 there

[TheWeatherMan]

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

two cuts, second one set up Benford for that really poor attempt at tackle

 

it was a great run imo, takes vision to cut that back inside and then crazy speed to go for 6 there

I see one cut and it barely slowed him down.  Benford whiffed and Cam Lewis (who sucked that game) was way out of position.  Again, he wasn’t touched or slowed in anyway.  The TBD member, whose GF racks up sacks, probably could have busted that lose.  

[starrymessenger]

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Taking extreme outliers away from a dataset is most cases provided for a more accurate conclusion.  
 

For example, let’s say cook was burning us for 10 yards a clip, than fumbles the ball from his RZ, where’s its kicked around and eventually recovered for an 81 yard loss.  Now his 20 rushes for 200 yards looks like 21 rushes for 119 or 5.6 yards per carry. I’m a huge fan of Dalvin, I draft him nearly every year for fantasy but his 81 yard run in which he made one cut, hit a gaping hole and was never touched had nothing to do with how good he is (and he is exceptional) it had to do with how awful the Bills defense executed on that play.  Any RB that runs a sub 4.8 takes that 81 yards to the house.  

Poor tackling?  He wasn’t touched on the play.  He wasn’t even breathed on.  

Yeah as bad as tackling gets.

[TBBills Fan]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

it is also just being a regular pineapple... the symbol has changed

 

@TBBills Fan I'll add this. Due to social media + online dating the symbol of just 🍍without being upside down is valid. I learned this when I was single and on tinder finding women who had this and no idea what it means.

 

 

interesting, people I know in the LS still consider the upside pineapple the sign.....myself as well

 

however live and let live, naked and free!

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

My way of dealing with that is to treat the really long runs as, say, 25 yard runs because 81 just skews everything so much. If you treat it as a 25 yard run -- which is really good but also a pretty common result in an NFL game -- he's 14 carries for 63 yards. That's 4.5 yards per carry -- which was pretty much his season average!

 

I get where you are coming from...however...If a RB does nothing all game, but then has 1 run that makes his stats look good, did he really have a good game?  This is why stats are such an unreliable way to analyze a players performance unless you are talking fantasy football where total stats are all that matter.  The stats lack context.  Even doing it the way you did it, it is misleading.  4.5 ypc is not only better than 2.9 ypc, but actually substantially better.  So even using your mentality of lessening his big run to 25 yards, it still greatly skews the quality of his entire game with was substantially subpar outside that big run.  

 

Not only does it lack all that context, but there is other context too...was it a broken play?  Did a defender fall down?  Did the OL open a hole so big that my anyone could have ripped a long run?  

 

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, streetkings01 said:

I’m not a fan of taking away a players longest run and hitting people with stats that show a player didn’t have as good of a game, buuuuut take away that 81 yard TD and Cook goes 13 carries for 38 yards @ 2.9 per carry.

That seems to be how we got beat last year. It wasn’t consistent gouging runs. It was one long run at a bad time that hurt us.
 

It didn’t happen often

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Again, if he tells the Bills he wants to come here for a year or 2 on a team friendly deal to be with his brother, we'll listen.

If he's looking for 5mil + then no 

He is not coming here

[Chicken Boo]

On 6/8/2023 at 2:09 PM, TheWeatherMan said:

Actually, that’s exactly how it worked.

 

Him rushing for 119 yards on 14 carries.  You're right, that's exactly what happened.

On 6/8/2023 at 2:24 PM, Tom Donahoe, GM said:

 

Overreaction

 

Mike McDaniels system.  Hill, Waddle and Dalvin Cook.

 

Absolutely NOT overreaction.  That's 3 guys that are a threat to score every time they touch the football.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Chicken Boo

[billsfan89]

3 hours ago, Cray51 said:

He isn’t coming to Buffalo, but that’s ok.  Our current stable is decent, with upside.

 

Let cook go to another team and let’s see how he does

I don’t see It happening nor is it a big deal that It doesn’t happen. James Cook is a stud poised for a breakout behind a much better and deeper offensive line. They also have a pair of quality power runners behind James Cook and a really good third down gadget back in Hines. 
 

Dalvin is a good player and would be a nice add for the Bills but I would rather go elsewhere for the Bills to add firepower along the offense such as going after a WR

[dave mcbride]

16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get where you are coming from...however...If a RB does nothing all game, but then has 1 run that makes his stats look good, did he really have a good game?  This is why stats are such an unreliable way to analyze a players performance unless you are talking fantasy football where total stats are all that matter.  The stats lack context.  Even doing it the way you did it, it is misleading.  4.5 ypc is not only better than 2.9 ypc, but actually substantially better.  So even using your mentality of lessening his big run to 25 yards, it still greatly skews the quality of his entire game with was substantially subpar outside that big run.  

 

Not only does it lack all that context, but there is other context too...was it a broken play?  Did a defender fall down?  Did the OL open a hole so big that my anyone could have ripped a long run?  

 

 

Disagree. You have to account for the fact that for every RB, there are going to be lots of plays where not much is gained, but big plays should absolutely count too. And I am seriously handicapping his biggest gain. 

[dave mcbride]

17 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

That's an incredibly poor way to even consider evaluating RBs.  The 81 yarder was considerably better than someone elses' 30 yarder that doesn't score.  I don't see the reasoning in taking an exceptional result and making it count the same as "really good but also a pretty common result".

 

My adjusted metric would be for an RB to get an aypc (Adjusted Yard Per Carry) that doesn't count TDs or 1st downs unless they are over his average,  A typical stat line would then say the RB had 25 attempts for 100 yds, 2 TDs, 7FDs (First Downs) and an aypc of 5.3.  This way you are not negatively impacting an RB for getting the tough 1-2 yard 1st down or TD.

 

Singletary's ypc looked good, but one factor was the Bills wouldn't even give it to him when they needed two yards.

 

 

 

 

Two things: big plays like 81 yard td runs are great and you always want a back who can occasionally do that. That definitely factors into my assessment of the RB. But if a back has a 95 yard gain and another 14 carries for 17 yards, I have a hard time saying that he “averaged “ 7.5 ypc. Yes, it’s true in the technical sense, but it’s akin to calculating the average wealth of customers at a bar when Jeff Bezos is sitting on one of the barstools. It’s just my quick way of trying to convey how a RB really played on an ypc average basis. 
 

Again, though, outside of that I am in no way advocating the discounting of gamebreaking runs. That’s a skill in and of itself even though they are pretty rare. You want guys with that potential in your backfield.

Edited June 10, 2023 by dave mcbride

[julian]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Two things: big plays like 81 yard td runs are great and you always want a back who can occasionally do that. That definitely factors into my assessment of the RB. But if a back has a 95 yard gain and another 14 carries for 17 yards, I have a hard time saying that he “averaged “ 7.5 ypc. Yes, it’s true in the technical sense, but it’s akin to calculating the average wealth of customers at a bar when Jeff Bezos is sitting on one of the barstools. It’s just my quick way of trying to convey how a RB really played on an ypc average basis. 
 

Again, though, outside of that I am in no way advocating the discounting of gamebreaking runs. That’s a skill in and of itself even though they are pretty rare. You want guys with that potential in your backfield.

Yeah wasn’t that a knock some people used on Barry Sanders… yeah he’s amazing but without those 2-3 runs a game he woulda went 15 carries for 28 yards.

 

 Maybe with Barry you were almost guaranteed to get those couple runs every game and that’s what makes him different but still kinda the same situation.

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Disagree. You have to account for the fact that for every RB, there are going to be lots of plays where not much is gained, but big plays should absolutely count too. And I am seriously handicapping his biggest gain. 

1 good play out of 20 does not equal a “good game” though.  

[benderbender]

If he were available at a reasonable price at the beginning of free agency, he'd already have a locker next to his brother. We're just nitpicking his resume to make it feel better when the Dolphins overpay for him. 

[John from Riverside]

11 hours ago, benderbender said:

If he were available at a reasonable price at the beginning of free agency, he'd already have a locker next to his brother. We're just nitpicking his resume to make it feel better when the Dolphins overpay for him. 

Pretty much this

[BADOLBILZ]

21 hours ago, benderbender said:

If he were available at a reasonable price at the beginning of free agency, he'd already have a locker next to his brother. We're just nitpicking his resume to make it feel better when the Dolphins overpay for him. 

 

 

Some of you, perhaps.   But those of us who aren't too concerned with runnin' bax actually AREN'T concerned by the prospect of Cook going to the Dolphins.  We know that individual RB quality/pedigree hasn't moved the needle on a teams SB hopes at all for about the last decade and mattered very little in the rest of the 2000's either.

[3rdand12]

23 hours ago, benderbender said:

If he were available at a reasonable price at the beginning of free agency, he'd already have a locker next to his brother. We're just nitpicking his resume to make it feel better when the Dolphins overpay for him. 

I like what we have at RB actually. Great mix and high level skills from each of the four.

As long as Dorsey can use them ? Might be our strength .
No to D Cook, at this point

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

"You know, a lot of Buffalo Bills fans don't think Dalvin Cook belongs on the Bills.  If you think they're wrong, show your support by adding a posting to this thread for a quality RB to come to Buffalo."

Edited June 12, 2023 by Ridgewaycynic2013