Ed Oliver big extension

[Don Otreply]

6 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

McGovern simply cannot be as bad as Saffold. Casper the Ghost would not be as bad as Saffold. If Edwards is healthy, he's kind of a forgotten addition. He'll help. I'll be surprised if Torrence isn't at least a serviceable guard. That's his floor. Overall, the IOL should be stronger, and better. I'm not sold on the tackles, Dawkins had a poor year and he's somewhat overrated, but it's not an incredible hope that the oline will accomplish middle of the pack status which would make a difference. Having decent guard play will help the tackles. I think you are playing games with the TE position. Knox is better than you credit and Kincaid is a big slot, so it's not quite accurate to treat him as TE2 in the conventional sense. You were down on Cook when he was drafted and you still are. I think he was a good pick and will prove it this year. It would be nice if Dorsey remembers he is a superior receiver out of the backfield. Hines, too. 

 

I understand questioning the coaching in the playoffs. It's an issue until they show they can win more consistently. Nonetheless, 13 - 3 under excruciating, unprecedented conditions was a real accomplishment. They won seven straight to close out the year. Folks dismiss it because of the post-season. The accumulation of injuries alone, especially on defense, just torpedoed the team. Laugh at that all you like. When healthy, this D is formidable. The risk you take with older players is they are perhaps more likely to get wore down by the end of the season. If Miller comes back close to his old self (and I don't think that's a huge stretch, I'm going to guess you are a skeptic,) the addition of Floyd gives you two twitchy athletes that can bring the qb down. Poona Ford is a solid 1 tech DT. They're going to be better at DL despite your casual assertion that nothing has changed.

 

Here's my guess: LB is going to end up being better than last year. Edmund's was a physical freak whose athleticism helped the D. His lack of instincts hurt it. I bet Dorian Williams is starting by mid-season or earlier. Bernard may turn out not to be a bust. The coaching staff is not as worried as the fans about LB and I trust them to know D. McD is going to call a more aggressive game, even if Frazier was running his system. No one can plan against injury, but if they experience relative good health, the D could be a lot better. A healthy Hyde, Poyer, Tre White coming back more confident and closer to his old self, Benford and Elam, that is not a bad secondary. Nothing about it says mediocre team destined to wilt in big games.

 

I'd like to add Hopkins. I don't think Davis is an adequate WR2, but as is, there is enough talent for the offense to be improved. I have more questions about Dorsey than I do about the offense. And Josh Allen needs to use the short and intermediate routes more. Long ball priority is a welcome change from the old days when third and long was an automatic punt, but the reason Knox's numbers don't stand out to you is both too often he was required to stay in and help the porous oline and when that didn't happen, Josh looked elsewhere while TE1 is wide open. And that summary rejection of Harty you make, let's just use that to include all the new additions on the back end of the WR room. The proper response is not to treat that as deficient and null until proven otherwise, but as a genuine potential to be determined. You don't know and can't know, so no one is compelled to logically follow your assertion that it's more of the same or that Beane is unintentionally fielding a less than optimum team. Given the constraints of the cap while paying up a franchise qb, it appears to me on the contrary that Beane has perhaps had his best off-season.

 

So there, I match your rant with a rant from the other point of view.

BullBuchanan is always depressed and negative about the team, this is nothing new, it’s his MO for a decade and more, best to disregard his posts as they don’t add much to any conversation. 

[muppy]

the post signing interview was for me a fun listen. To hear a man spill his heart out over and over and over again. That's what touched me.

 

Is he confident?  Mindset "Outplay the contract" my reaction to that is rawrrrr. He oozes confidence and what he said I believed every word.

 

Hearing he reminisce on family was cool but also just his mindset with financial pressures Gone. Take care of the body and go out there and outplay his contract

 

Si' Por Favor Ed CONCUR!~!~!!!

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

BullBuchanan is always depressed and negative about the team, this is nothing new, it’s his MO for a decade and more, best to disregard his posts as they don’t add much to any conversation. 

Dog had puppies under the barn last night so I was up in the early hours of the morning. I rarely respond to Bull, but logged in because I could not sleep and decided to answer because there was so much wrong with the entire oration. I realize it is futile as an effort at persuasion.

[BarleyNY]

6 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

McGovern simply cannot be as bad as Saffold. Casper the Ghost would not be as bad as Saffold. If Edwards is healthy, he's kind of a forgotten addition. He'll help. I'll be surprised if Torrence isn't at least a serviceable guard. That's his floor. Overall, the IOL should be stronger, and better. I'm not sold on the tackles, Dawkins had a poor year and he's somewhat overrated, but it's not an incredible hope that the oline will accomplish middle of the pack status which would make a difference. Having decent guard play will help the tackles.

 

Just want to address the OL piece. Last off-season the vast majority of this board talked up Saffold as a big improvement at OG last year. The handful of us that actually went and looked at his play knew he was done and the contract he got from the Bills was a joke. So I take the glowing expectations of much of this board with a boulder sized grain of salt. That said, I do expect McGovern to be serviceable - which would be an upgrade. He’s been good in pass pro but poor as a run blocker so that’s a concern. You mention Edwards, who I think is being overlooked. He’s one of the players I want training camp info on. I was happy to see an OG added in the draft, but the questions about Torrence’s fit are legitimate. He looks like a straight up Power/Gap OG while none of the rest of our OL looks well-suited to that. Also I think many posters here saw him get mocked to us at the end of round 1 and think we got a steal in round 2, but that wasn’t where he was mostly ranked by draft sites. I saw 2nd, 3rd and 4th round projections for him. Still, he’s got nice potential and I’m happy we addressed the OL in the draft. 

 

To me the much more concerning issue is OT. The lack of any move that would improve it could derail this season - just like it did last season when Quessenberry’s missed block against the Jets got Allen’s elbow injured. I think the IOL will be adequate and can withstand some injuries to any of the three spots, but I have no such confidence with the OTs. If Dawkins gets injured we’re looking at Brown and Quessenberry or Shell out there. I just don’t see how that works out well.

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's hard to take anything you say seriously when this statement shows that you haven't been paying attention at all. I mean here you're implying there's a chance Kincaid starts the season as the #3 TE behind Quintin Morris. Have you listened to a single thing the team and beat reporters have said about Kincaid's role?

 

It does? I mentioned #2 to start with with #3 as a possibility.

In all likelihood he's the #2, but he's a rookie. Have you  watched this team at all under McDermott? What happened with Cook, Elam, Rousseau, Basham etc, their rookie years? It's entirely reasonable, if not probable that he sees a modest role this year.

8 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

this is a lot to take in.. where to start

 

To the first bolded. Wrong.. Kincaid is more the replacement because he will play lots of slot.

To the second bolded  that whole pharagraph is one of the worst takes I have seen on this board in recent months. Beane not doing all he can do? Stop it.

To the third bolded HA HA HA HA... nothing else to say. 

To the 4th bolded.. You seem to be more of a KC fan then a Bills Fan. Just saying..  I am a fan of all football and if you didn't see how much KC struggled at times? well...

To the final bolded? Damn glad your not a GM here. 

 

just saying..

he is just giving one bad narrative after another... 

Thanks for contributing less than nothing to the conversation. It's like you didn't even read anything I wrote. Just block me if you can't be bothered to read.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

More worried about the safeties than I am MLB. Agree with you. I think they’ll be fine at MLB…. I do question whether Hyde returns to form/can remain healthy. Same goes for Poyer.

 

I wonder if our future safeties are already on the roster and will be slowly developed at the position until needed. We seem to be hoarding hybrid types of players, like positionless basketball. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's hard to take anything you say seriously when this statement shows that you haven't been paying attention at all. I mean here you're implying there's a chance Kincaid starts the season as the #3 TE behind Quintin Morris. Have you listened to a single thing the team and beat reporters have said about Kincaid's role?

 

 

I expect his snaps to cut knoxs a bit from the 75% down a bit in some of the more spread looks.  I also expect him, Shakir, Sherfield, and harty to split the Mckenzie (555)/Shakir (275)/morris (281) snaps.  Sherfield is the best blocker and a core special teamer, Kincaid is probably the best for catching in traffic and soft spots in zone, Shakir probably has the best man coverage chops, and then harty is a burner with some shiftiness.  They all have attributes that should get them on the field in different roles.  I don't expect much to change from the davis and diggs snap counts barring injury.

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

It does? I mentioned #2 to start with with #3 as a possibility.

 

You could have just said "no I haven't listened to a single thing the team has said about Kincaid" instead of implying there's a chance he winds up as the TE3. You do you though.

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I expect his snaps to cut knoxs a bit from the 75% down a bit in some of the more spread looks.  I also expect him, Shakir, Sherfield, and harty to split the Mckenzie (555)/Shakir (275)/morris (281) snaps.  Sherfield is the best blocker and a core special teamer, Kincaid is probably the best for catching in traffic and soft spots in zone, Shakir probably has the best man coverage chops, and then harty is a burner with some shiftiness.  They all have attributes that should get them on the field in different roles.  I don't expect much to change from the davis and diggs snap counts barring injury.

 

Yeah I expect Shakir to be the official starting slot WR but I'm expecting Kincaid to ultimately get more snaps and targets than him, especially as the season goes along. He is too talented and too pro-ready to not have a significant role early on. OTAs only tell you so much but he has apparently been a favorite target of Allen in the past two sessions that the media attended. Kincaid was practically designed in a laboratory to defeat the cover 2 shell defense that befuddled us so much last year. His attributes will be more valuable to us in the slot than anyone else on the roster IMO.

[BullBuchanan]

8 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

McGovern simply cannot be as bad as Saffold. Casper the Ghost would not be as bad as Saffold. If Edwards is healthy, he's kind of a forgotten addition. He'll help. I'll be surprised if Torrence isn't at least a serviceable guard. That's his floor. Overall, the IOL should be stronger, and better. I'm not sold on the tackles, Dawkins had a poor year and he's somewhat overrated, but it's not an incredible hope that the oline will accomplish middle of the pack status which would make a difference. Having decent guard play will help the tackles. I think you are playing games with the TE position. Knox is better than you credit and Kincaid is a big slot, so it's not quite accurate to treat him as TE2 in the conventional sense. You were down on Cook when he was drafted and you still are. I think he was a good pick and will prove it this year. It would be nice if Dorsey remembers he is a superior receiver out of the backfield. Hines, too. 

 

I understand questioning the coaching in the playoffs. It's an issue until they show they can win more consistently. Nonetheless, 13 - 3 under excruciating, unprecedented conditions was a real accomplishment. They won seven straight to close out the year. Folks dismiss it because of the post-season. The accumulation of injuries alone, especially on defense, just torpedoed the team. Laugh at that all you like. When healthy, this D is formidable. The risk you take with older players is they are perhaps more likely to get wore down by the end of the season. If Miller comes back close to his old self (and I don't think that's a huge stretch, I'm going to guess you are a skeptic,) the addition of Floyd gives you two twitchy athletes that can bring the qb down. Poona Ford is a solid 1 tech DT. They're going to be better at DL despite your casual assertion that nothing has changed.

 

Here's my guess: LB is going to end up being better than last year. Edmund's was a physical freak whose athleticism helped the D. His lack of instincts hurt it. I bet Dorian Williams is starting by mid-season or earlier. Bernard may turn out not to be a bust. The coaching staff is not as worried as the fans about LB and I trust them to know D. McD is going to call a more aggressive game, even if Frazier was running his system. No one can plan against injury, but if they experience relative good health, the D could be a lot better. A healthy Hyde, Poyer, Tre White coming back more confident and closer to his old self, Benford and Elam, that is not a bad secondary. Nothing about it says mediocre team destined to wilt in big games.

 

I'd like to add Hopkins. I don't think Davis is an adequate WR2, but as is, there is enough talent for the offense to be improved. I have more questions about Dorsey than I do about the offense. And Josh Allen needs to use the short and intermediate routes more. Long ball priority is a welcome change from the old days when third and long was an automatic punt, but the reason Knox's numbers don't stand out to you is both too often he was required to stay in and help the porous oline and when that didn't happen, Josh looked elsewhere while TE1 is wide open. And that summary rejection of Harty you make, let's just use that to include all the new additions on the back end of the WR room. The proper response is not to treat that as deficient and null until proven otherwise, but as a genuine potential to be determined. You don't know and can't know, so no one is compelled to logically follow your assertion that it's more of the same or that Beane is unintentionally fielding a less than optimum team. Given the constraints of the cap while paying up a franchise qb, it appears to me on the contrary that Beane has perhaps had his best off-season.

 

So there, I match your rant with a rant from the other point of view.

Not sure either one of our posts were rants, unless that means anything with a paragraph. I don't disagree with any of the upside you mention on the OL. It's absolutely possible that they upgrade to a middle of the pack unit. I just don't see that closing the gap with the elite teams in the NFL.

I really don't care what people want to call Kincaid. People want to call him a "big slot" as though that's better than TE2. I'm not sure it is. R4ealistically, we won't be your #3 option int he passing game this year as he'll be splitting opportunities with a regular slot. I also don't believe that they'll be using him exclusively as a pass catcher, so I expect he'll be learning some actual TE responsibilities and playing some of that TE2 role as well. Once a decade you get a rookie TE, regardless of whether or not they're a "big slot" type that has a substantial impact as a rookie. The 10th best season over the last decade in 500 yards for 3 TDs. Just like the o-line, I don't see that being the missing piece. I don't hate Knox, but he's a good not great guy as a receiver. Though I do love watching him stiff arm defenders.

Your take on Harty is weird. He's been in the league 4 years and has done nothing as an offensive weapon. If you wan to treat that as untapped potential, fine but you probably wouldn't be saying that if he spent those 4 years on our roster.

As for Beane fielding a less than optimal team, he came right out and said that was exactly what he was doing. It's not my opinion, it's his intention

“There are some moves that we could do that would say we’re all in for this year and then have a tear down,” Beane said, via the Buffalo News. “We’ve been diligent with the cap to try to avoid that type of situation. It’s not easy, especially when you have a top 10 quarterback, great receiver, Tre White, Von [Miller] and some of these guys. Ultimately, we think we’ve got a plan to continue to go for it year after year and hopefully we can find a way to pull that title home for Buffalo sooner rather than later.”

In the last 6 years, 3/6 teams or 50% of them have won by going all-in (Eagles, Bucs, Rams), the other 3 winners were the Mahomes-Reid led Chiefs and the Brady-Belichick led Patriots. If you can emulate the Chiefs and Pats, great, but I think that requires a hard conversation about our coaching staff. McD may be a great guy, but I don't think it's a radical statement to say that he's not a wizard as a coach.

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You could have just said "no I haven't listened to a single thing the team has said about Kincaid" instead of implying there's a chance he winds up as the TE3. You do you though.

You were so close. All you had to do what make it to the next paragraph. Shame.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Not sure either one of our posts were rants, unless that means anything with a paragraph. I don't disagree with any of the upside you mention on the OL. It's absolutely possible that they upgrade to a middle of the pack unit. I just don't see that closing the gap with the elite teams in the NFL.

I really don't care what people want to call Kincaid. People want to call him a "big slot" as though that's better than TE2. I'm not sure it is. R4ealistically, we won't be your #3 option int he passing game this year as he'll be splitting opportunities with a regular slot. I also don't believe that they'll be using him exclusively as a pass catcher, so I expect he'll be learning some actual TE responsibilities and playing some of that TE2 role as well. Once a decade you get a rookie TE, regardless of whether or not they're a "big slot" type that has a substantial impact as a rookie. The 10th best season over the last decade in 500 yards for 3 TDs. Just like the o-line, I don't see that being the missing piece. I don't hate Knox, but he's a good not great guy as a receiver. Though I do love watching him stiff arm defenders.

Your take on Harty is weird. He's been in the league 4 years and has done nothing as an offensive weapon. If you wan to treat that as untapped potential, fine but you probably wouldn't be saying that if he spent those 4 years on our roster.

As for Beane fielding a less than optimal team, he came right out and said that was exactly what he was doing. It's not my opinion, it's his intention

“There are some moves that we could do that would say we’re all in for this year and then have a tear down,” Beane said, via the Buffalo News. “We’ve been diligent with the cap to try to avoid that type of situation. It’s not easy, especially when you have a top 10 quarterback, great receiver, Tre White, Von [Miller] and some of these guys. Ultimately, we think we’ve got a plan to continue to go for it year after year and hopefully we can find a way to pull that title home for Buffalo sooner rather than later.”

In the last 6 years, 3/6 teams or 50% of them have won by going all-in (Eagles, Bucs, Rams), the other 3 winners were the Mahomes-Reid led Chiefs and the Brady-Belichick led Patriots. If you can emulate the Chiefs and Pats, great, but I think that requires a hard conversation about our coaching staff. McD may be a great guy, but I don't think it's a radical statement to say that he's not a wizard as a coach.

You were so close. All you had to do what make it to the next paragraph. Shame.

I think middle of the pack OL unleashes Josh Allen. He's that good. The bad oline play has been a drag on his capacity to be a force multiplier for the offense. I don't totally disagree with what you say about Kincaid. I would not count on him being a dominant threat this year, though I believe there is a chance it happens. My take is the position is morphing. What Beane calls a flex TE is the kind of hybrid the H-back was a generation ago. I think the learning curve is less and Kincaid can have more of an immediate impact. Harty has been hurt. Maybe he is just injury prone because of his size. If he can stay healthy, he might be a Darren Sproles type. I don't see him as doomed to repeat his past and I suppose neither does Beane because they gave him a contract you give to someone you think can make a difference. Naturally, it's a gamble. Skepticism is not ridiculous. Presuming a bad result seems to me a prejudice without merit.

 

I don't equate optimal with absolutely pushing all the chips in. I don't think that is particularly prudent. In my estimation, Beane pushed a lot of chips in and I think he might be willing to do a bit more. It's definitely not a bare bones fill-the-holes off-season because he's cash strapped by the cap. He may talk like that, but his actions belie the rhetoric. I am not willing to conclude that McD is destined to be a mediocre coach just yet, but he has to do better in the post-season. He might be Marty Schottenheimer or Marvin Lewis. 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

It does? I mentioned #2 to start with with #3 as a possibility.

In all likelihood he's the #2, but he's a rookie. Have you  watched this team at all under McDermott? What happened with Cook, Elam, Rousseau, Basham etc, their rookie years? It's entirely reasonable, if not probable that he sees a modest role this year.

Thanks for contributing less than nothing to the conversation. It's like you didn't even read anything I wrote. Just block me if you can't be bothered to read.

LOL. Keep thinking that... 

[hondo in seattle]

On 6/5/2023 at 2:19 PM, Aussie Joe said:

this is the second time someone has made this mistake of $10 m a year ?
 

Can’t really grasp how you get that figure…

 

 

I was temporarily (???) suffering from HIBS (Head In Butt Syndrome).

 

I meant to say that including the $10m fifth-year option, Oliver isn't super highly paid.  According to Getzenberg's ESPN article:

 

The $45 million guaranteed is tied for eighth-most most among active interior defensive line contracts, per ESPN Stats & Information research. With his $10.753 million fifth-year option included, Oliver is set to average $15.75 million in salary over the next five years, currently 16th among interior defensive linemen.

 

Roughly half the league uses a 3-man front while the other half uses a 4-man front.  That means there are roughly 48 starting D tackles in the league.  By the time Ed plays out half his contract, his salary will be about average for a starting tackle.  Which seems about fair.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

15 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I was temporarily (???) suffering from HIBS (Head In Butt Syndrome).

 

I meant to say that including the $10m fifth-year option, Oliver isn't super highly paid.  According to Getzenberg's ESPN article:

 

The $45 million guaranteed is tied for eighth-most most among active interior defensive line contracts, per ESPN Stats & Information research. With his $10.753 million fifth-year option included, Oliver is set to average $15.75 million in salary over the next five years, currently 16th among interior defensive linemen.

 

Roughly half the league uses a 3-man front while the other half uses a 4-man front.  That means there are roughly 48 starting D tackles in the league.  By the time Ed plays out half his contract, his salary will be about average for a starting tackle.  Which seems about fair.  

Half the league uses 3 man front? I see a lot of teams listed as 3-4 including the Steelers. But almost all these teams are in a 4 DL nickel the majority of the game. 

Doesn't  change your math much. His salary is still about average and his play is about average. Underwhelming for a top 10 pick in my opinion.  But cost wise is not that egregious. 

[BurpleBull]

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Half the league uses 3 man front? I see a lot of teams listed as 3-4 including the Steelers. But almost all these teams are in a 4 DL nickel the majority of the game. 

Doesn't  change your math much. His salary is still about average and his play is about average. Underwhelming for a top 10 pick in my opinion.  But cost wise is not that egregious. 

 

Honest question...  How many 3-4 base teams switch to a 4-man defensive front when going nickel?

 

It's not something I pay much attention to, but it would seem that a 3-4 team would more naturally run a 3-3-5 nickel rather than a 4-2-5 nickel.  

 

Nickels come in different flavors.  4-2-5 and 3-3-5 are common but I've seen teams do 2-4-5 as well.  

 

Anyway, I agree with Oliver.  He's somewhat overpaid but it's not egregious.  I think Beane was in an uncomfortable position with no DTs under contract for next year.  He had to do something.  

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[3rdand12]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is way too old and replacebale to extend him before the season IMO. He did play well last year but he is a guy who you will have no issue extending after the season and before FA if you wish to. 

If he is replaceable  (Jones), this past draft might well have been the time to do it.

 But i get your point about timing the contract.

The key for Oliver and perhaps Phillips is to have that one tech aside them so they can get after it 
 

Beanes said he wants Ed to mature in his reads though. Wise words. 
 Bills need another kid at 1 tech to follow up D Jones and maybe even replace Settle

 Rotations ya know
 

Edited June 8, 2023 by 3rdand12

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

If he is replaceable  (Jones), this past draft might well have been the time to do it.

 But i get your point about timing the contract.

The key for Oliver and perhaps Phillips is to have that one tech aside them so they can get after it 
 

Beanes said he wants Ed to mature in his reads though. Wise words. 
 Bills need another kid at 1 tech to follow up D Jones and maybe even replace Settle

 Rotations ya know
 

 

For sure Ed needs a good 1 tech next to him. The Bills have Jones, Ford and Settle on the roster. Jones is good but old. Poona is on a one year deal and Settle is very much a backup. I am not against them keeping Jones for next year but I want to see him maintain his level of play in 2023 first. Because at his age when the wall comes it comes quickly. And he isn't gonna be a guy with a huge FA market who is a hard extension to do come the off season. 

 

However, given Beane thinks we are about $3m over the real cap once we get to cuts stage Jones is definitely a candidate for an early extension to spread some money, the risk is if you do that and his play dips in 2023 you might be paying him not to play for you in 2024.

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

For sure Ed needs a good 1 tech next to him. The Bills have Jones, Ford and Settle on the roster. Jones is good but old. Poona is on a one year deal and Settle is very much a backup. I am not against them keeping Jones for next year but I want to see him maintain his level of play in 2023 first. Because at his age when the wall comes it comes quickly. And he isn't gonna be a guy with a huge FA market who is a hard extension to do come the off season. 

 

However, given Beane thinks we are about $3m over the real cap once we get to cuts stage Jones is definitely a candidate for an early extension to spread some money, the risk is if you do that and his play dips in 2023 you might be paying him not to play for you in 2024.

Settle is better suited to 3 tech…

 

 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Settle is better suited to 3 tech…

 

 

 

I disagree, and the Bills certainly didn't use him that way in 2022. He was, primarily, the rotation for Jones at 1T. I think he can play 3T in a pinch but I think his natural fit is 1T.