Ed Oliver big extension

[freddyjj]

58 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If he does, you will be the main reason why.

There is a portal from my keyboard to God’s ears 😎

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

2795 for Kyle.  2284 for Ed.   Really very similar production. 

No doubt ........... was saying the same thing.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And means they are not at 0 DTs under contract for 2024.

Exactly
I still think that there is an extension for DaQuan Jones on the way. He played way too well last year in order not to do that.

[PrimeTime101]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Exactly
I still think that there is an extension for DaQuan Jones on the way. He played way too well last year in order not to do that.

Big One Tech guy, they say he has gained some more weight.. This is going to force a double team often enough to let Oliver be one on one.. And then when Von is back... Who you double team then? 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Exactly
I still think that there is an extension for DaQuan Jones on the way. He played way too well last year in order not to do that.

 

He is way too old and replacebale to extend him before the season IMO. He did play well last year but he is a guy who you will have no issue extending after the season and before FA if you wish to. 

[Aussie Joe]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is way too old and replacebale to extend him before the season IMO. He did play well last year but he is a guy who you will have no issue extending after the season and before FA if you wish to. 

Only to free up more money for DHop…

 

Right? 
 

 

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Just some perspective on Ed Oliver.  Let's compare him to another undersized former Bills DT, Kyle Williams after 4 years in the league.

 

Games Started: Williams 57 > Oliver 53.
Total Tackles: Williams 215 > Oliver 151..

TFLs: Williams 32  > Oliver 30,

Sacks: Williams 8 < Oliver 14.5

QB Hits:  Williams 29 <  Oliver 42

 

 Williams received an early extension in July 2008 for 3 years at $14.4mm total.  In 2011 he recieved another 6 year extension for $40mm with $17mm guaranteed.  

 

I guess given the similar numbers in their first 4 years the Oliver signing is understandable.  It was in 2010, his 5th year that Williams was named a Pro Bowl and 2nd Team All Pro.  Might we see the same from Ed Oliver this year?

I don’t think anyone would complain if Oliver got 3 years for 14M lol.

 

What you demonstrated here was a massive difference in compensation 

[Cash]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think anyone would complain if Oliver got 3 years for 14M lol.

 

What you demonstrated here was a massive difference in compensation 

Is it, though? How do they compare in terms of highest-paid DTs or % of cap? Especially over the first 3 years of EdO’s deal, since the Bills can get out of it easily at that point. 

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, Cash said:

Is it, though? How do they compare in terms of highest-paid DTs or % of cap? Especially over the first 3 years of EdO’s deal, since the Bills can get out of it easily at that point. 

it is a big difference. Spend time at Spotrac and you would see, just by fiddling with numbers. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Cash said:

Is it, though? How do they compare in terms of highest-paid DTs or % of cap? Especially over the first 3 years of EdO’s deal, since the Bills can get out of it easily at that point. 

 

Percentage of cap Kyle's AAV in 2008 was about 4%. Ed's AAV as a % now is about 7%. 

[BullBuchanan]

23 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I disagree that 5 of the 6 positions I said we improved at was just adding depth.  I'd say we're now better at 6 of 7 starting positions I mentioned (TE2, LG, DT, DE, WR3, RB) with the signing of Floyd.  I'll grant you that we only added depth at safety. Just simplifying for one on one comparisons with everyone else coming back at these positions....

 

Kincaid>Morris, McGovern>Saffold, Ford>Settle, Floyd>Basham, Harty>McKenzie, Harris>Singletary

 

I understand your point that we're relying on veterans to regain their previous form and young players to play to their full potential at certain positions.  However, what's the alternative?  Who would you have drafted instead of Kincaid that would guarantee us a better player at a premier position?  Jack Campbell was off the board.  Who would you have signed at safety that would be an upgrade over Poyer?

 

There's definitely a case to be made that it would've been smarter to re-sign Edmunds and let Oliver play out his final year of his contract.  That's fair and I can see both sides to that argument.  The problem I had with your post is the suggestion that Beane is tanking this season on purpose despite no evidence at all to suggest he is.  There's nothing he's done this offseason that points to that even if you disagree with his team building approach.

 

I guess I don't consider TE2 and DT 3/4, DE3 and RB2 starting positions. Harty is in no way an "upgrade" over mckenzie until he proves it. 4 TDs and under 800 yards over 4 years makes him effectively a 25 year old second year player if you add his whole career together. I'm also not ready to pencil in McGovern as an immediate upgrade either. He has severe flaws in his game that we've glazed over because of how poorly Saffold performed. I like the floyd signing, but again, it's depth. Kincaid will be fun to watch, but I'm not expecting a rookie TE starting the season at #2 or #3 to be much of a factor at all - certainly not more than a high end #2 WR would have been. Harris is a fine committee back, but nothing about him is special. He'll get some touches and TDs because somebody's gotta, but he's not going to take over football games.

"Tanking" is a very strong word, and not one I agree with. I don't believe Beane is intentionally trying to lose. I do believe that he's not doing everything he can to win, because he's said as much, and I don't think the moves that he's made put us in any better position to win than last year or the year before. I don't see most of the guys he's brought in as difference makers, more like B/C-tier free agent role players.

We don't have enough talent at RB1, TE1, WR2, MLB,  or DL (despite our insane investments there). The only real threat we have either side of the ball to an opposing team is Allen to Diggs. You take any part of that away and we're toast. We've seen it in the playoffs for 3 years now. That connection evaporates in January when the real gameplans come out and we have no response. Milano is a beat and I love him, but he's not Ray Lewis or Brian Urlacher. He won't drag Rex Grossman or Trent Dilfer to a Super Bowl.

Watching KC play last year with a one-legged Mahomes was illuminating. They have a seemingly endless parade of players who have no problem throwing the team on their back and stepping up to make big plays. Despite not being a team of all-pros, they play amazing situational football, and a lot of that is probably coaching. We already know that they run the worst play in football (the shovel pass) better than any other team in the league, so maybe like Belichick used to, Reid is just that good at getting the best out of guys that aren't perfect.

McDermott and co seem to be much more of a "beat the man across from you" type of coach that will have to rely on his team having a significant enough talent and effort advantage to overcome his opponent.

17 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

One thing I know for sure is that Beane knows one heck of a lot more about where the Bills are in relation to the Cap both now and in the years to come than anyone on this Message Board. It’s just one of the reasons why I stay away from that topic. It’s way too complicated and we really have no idea what other chess moves are in the offing. So…I’m guessing there’s more to the Oliver extension than most of us think or know. 

I may not be a GM, but I'd bet a lot of money against Beane that we'd save more cap by not having Oliver on the team than giving him a $17M/year contract.

[Dr. Who]

13 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I guess I don't consider TE2 and DT 3/4, DE3 and RB2 starting positions. Harty is in no way an "upgrade" over mckenzie until he proves it. 4 TDs and under 800 yards over 4 years makes him effectively a 25 year old second year player if you add his whole career together. I'm also not ready to pencil in McGovern as an immediate upgrade either. He has severe flaws in his game that we've glazed over because of how poorly Saffold performed. I like the floyd signing, but again, it's depth. Kincaid will be fun to watch, but I'm not expecting a rookie TE starting the season at #2 or #3 to be much of a factor at all - certainly not more than a high end #2 WR would have been. Harris is a fine committee back, but nothing about him is special. He'll get some touches and TDs because somebody's gotta, but he's not going to take over football games.

"Tanking" is a very strong word, and not one I agree with. I don't believe Beane is intentionally trying to lose. I do believe that he's not doing everything he can to win, because he's said as much, and I don't think the moves that he's made put us in any better position to win than last year or the year before. I don't see most of the guys he's brought in as difference makers, more like B/C-tier free agent role players.

We don't have enough talent at RB1, TE1, WR2, MLB,  or DL (despite our insane investments there). The only real threat we have either side of the ball to an opposing team is Allen to Diggs. You take any part of that away and we're toast. We've seen it in the playoffs for 3 years now. That connection evaporates in January when the real gameplans come out and we have no response. Milano is a beat and I love him, but he's not Ray Lewis or Brian Urlacher. He won't drag Rex Grossman or Trent Dilfer to a Super Bowl.

Watching KC play last year with a one-legged Mahomes was illuminating. They have a seemingly endless parade of players who have no problem throwing the team on their back and stepping up to make big plays. Despite not being a team of all-pros, they play amazing situational football, and a lot of that is probably coaching. We already know that they run the worst play in football (the shovel pass) better than any other team in the league, so maybe like Belichick used to, Reid is just that good at getting the best out of guys that aren't perfect.

McDermott and co seem to be much more of a "beat the man across from you" type of coach that will have to rely on his team having a significant enough talent and effort advantage to overcome his opponent.

I may not be a GM, but I'd bet a lot of money against Beane that we'd save more cap by not having Oliver on the team than giving him a $17M/year contract.

McGovern simply cannot be as bad as Saffold. Casper the Ghost would not be as bad as Saffold. If Edwards is healthy, he's kind of a forgotten addition. He'll help. I'll be surprised if Torrence isn't at least a serviceable guard. That's his floor. Overall, the IOL should be stronger, and better. I'm not sold on the tackles, Dawkins had a poor year and he's somewhat overrated, but it's not an incredible hope that the oline will accomplish middle of the pack status which would make a difference. Having decent guard play will help the tackles. I think you are playing games with the TE position. Knox is better than you credit and Kincaid is a big slot, so it's not quite accurate to treat him as TE2 in the conventional sense. You were down on Cook when he was drafted and you still are. I think he was a good pick and will prove it this year. It would be nice if Dorsey remembers he is a superior receiver out of the backfield. Hines, too. 

 

I understand questioning the coaching in the playoffs. It's an issue until they show they can win more consistently. Nonetheless, 13 - 3 under excruciating, unprecedented conditions was a real accomplishment. They won seven straight to close out the year. Folks dismiss it because of the post-season. The accumulation of injuries alone, especially on defense, just torpedoed the team. Laugh at that all you like. When healthy, this D is formidable. The risk you take with older players is they are perhaps more likely to get wore down by the end of the season. If Miller comes back close to his old self (and I don't think that's a huge stretch, I'm going to guess you are a skeptic,) the addition of Floyd gives you two twitchy athletes that can bring the qb down. Poona Ford is a solid 1 tech DT. They're going to be better at DL despite your casual assertion that nothing has changed.

 

Here's my guess: LB is going to end up being better than last year. Edmund's was a physical freak whose athleticism helped the D. His lack of instincts hurt it. I bet Dorian Williams is starting by mid-season or earlier. Bernard may turn out not to be a bust. The coaching staff is not as worried as the fans about LB and I trust them to know D. McD is going to call a more aggressive game, even if Frazier was running his system. No one can plan against injury, but if they experience relative good health, the D could be a lot better. A healthy Hyde, Poyer, Tre White coming back more confident and closer to his old self, Benford and Elam, that is not a bad secondary. Nothing about it says mediocre team destined to wilt in big games.

 

I'd like to add Hopkins. I don't think Davis is an adequate WR2, but as is, there is enough talent for the offense to be improved. I have more questions about Dorsey than I do about the offense. And Josh Allen needs to use the short and intermediate routes more. Long ball priority is a welcome change from the old days when third and long was an automatic punt, but the reason Knox's numbers don't stand out to you is both too often he was required to stay in and help the porous oline and when that didn't happen, Josh looked elsewhere while TE1 is wide open. And that summary rejection of Harty you make, let's just use that to include all the new additions on the back end of the WR room. The proper response is not to treat that as deficient and null until proven otherwise, but as a genuine potential to be determined. You don't know and can't know, so no one is compelled to logically follow your assertion that it's more of the same or that Beane is unintentionally fielding a less than optimum team. Given the constraints of the cap while paying up a franchise qb, it appears to me on the contrary that Beane has perhaps had his best off-season.

 

So there, I match your rant with a rant from the other point of view.

[PrimeTime101]

43 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I guess I don't consider TE2 and DT 3/4, DE3 and RB2 starting positions. Harty is in no way an "upgrade" over mckenzie until he proves it. 4 TDs and under 800 yards over 4 years makes him effectively a 25 year old second year player if you add his whole career together. I'm also not ready to pencil in McGovern as an immediate upgrade either. He has severe flaws in his game that we've glazed over because of how poorly Saffold performed. I like the floyd signing, but again, it's depth. Kincaid will be fun to watch, but I'm not expecting a rookie TE starting the season at #2 or #3 to be much of a factor at all - certainly not more than a high end #2 WR would have been. Harris is a fine committee back, but nothing about him is special. He'll get some touches and TDs because somebody's gotta, but he's not going to take over football games.

"Tanking" is a very strong word, and not one I agree with. I don't believe Beane is intentionally trying to lose. I do believe that he's not doing everything he can to win, because he's said as much, and I don't think the moves that he's made put us in any better position to win than last year or the year before. I don't see most of the guys he's brought in as difference makers, more like B/C-tier free agent role players.

We don't have enough talent at RB1, TE1, WR2, MLB,  or DL (despite our insane investments there). The only real threat we have either side of the ball to an opposing team is Allen to Diggs. You take any part of that away and we're toast. We've seen it in the playoffs for 3 years now. That connection evaporates in January when the real gameplans come out and we have no response. Milano is a beat and I love him, but he's not Ray Lewis or Brian Urlacher. He won't drag Rex Grossman or Trent Dilfer to a Super Bowl.

Watching KC play last year with a one-legged Mahomes was illuminating. They have a seemingly endless parade of players who have no problem throwing the team on their back and stepping up to make big plays. Despite not being a team of all-pros, they play amazing situational football, and a lot of that is probably coaching. We already know that they run the worst play in football (the shovel pass) better than any other team in the league, so maybe like Belichick used to, Reid is just that good at getting the best out of guys that aren't perfect.

McDermott and co seem to be much more of a "beat the man across from you" type of coach that will have to rely on his team having a significant enough talent and effort advantage to overcome his opponent.

I may not be a GM, but I'd bet a lot of money against Beane that we'd save more cap by not having Oliver on the team than giving him a $17M/year contract.

this is a lot to take in.. where to start

 

To the first bolded. Wrong.. Kincaid is more the replacement because he will play lots of slot.

To the second bolded  that whole pharagraph is one of the worst takes I have seen on this board in recent months. Beane not doing all he can do? Stop it.

To the third bolded HA HA HA HA... nothing else to say. 

To the 4th bolded.. You seem to be more of a KC fan then a Bills Fan. Just saying..  I am a fan of all football and if you didn't see how much KC struggled at times? well...

To the final bolded? Damn glad your not a GM here. 

 

just saying..

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

McGovern simply cannot be as bad as Saffold. Casper the Ghost would not be as bad as Saffold. If Edwards is healthy, he's kind of a forgotten addition. He'll help. I'll be surprised if Torrence isn't at least a serviceable guard. That's his floor. Overall, the IOL should be stronger, and better. I'm not sold on the tackles, Dawkins had a poor year and he's somewhat overrated, but it's not an incredible hope that the oline will accomplish middle of the pack status which would make a difference. Having decent guard play will help the tackles. I think you are playing games with the TE position. Knox is better than you credit and Kincaid is a big slot, so it's not quite accurate to treat him as TE2 in the conventional sense. You were down on Cook when he was drafted and you still are. I think he was a good pick and will prove it this year. It would be nice if Dorsey remembers he is a superior receiver out of the backfield. Hines, too. 

 

I understand questioning the coaching in the playoffs. It's an issue until they show they can win more consistently. Nonetheless, 13 - 3 under excruciating, unprecedented conditions was a real accomplishment. They won seven straight to close out the year. Folks dismiss it because of the post-season. The accumulation of injuries alone, especially on defense, just torpedoed the team. Laugh at that all you like. When healthy, this D is formidable. The risk you take with older players is they are perhaps more likely to get wore down by the end of the season. If Miller comes back close to his old self (and I don't think that's a huge stretch, I'm going to guess you are a skeptic,) the addition of Floyd gives you two twitchy athletes that can bring the qb down. Poona Ford is a solid 1 tech DT. They're going to be better at DL despite your casual assertion that nothing has changed.

 

Here's my guess: LB is going to end up being better than last year. Edmund's was a physical freak whose athleticism helped the D. His lack of instincts hurt it. I bet Dorian Williams is starting by mid-season or earlier. Bernard may turn out not to be a bust. The coaching staff is not as worried as the fans about LB and I trust them to know D. McD is going to call a more aggressive game, even if Frazier was running his system. No one can plan against injury, but if they experience relative good health, the D could be a lot better. A healthy Hyde, Poyer, Tre White coming back more confident and closer to his old self, Benford and Elam, that is not a bad secondary. Nothing about it says mediocre team destined to wilt in big games.

 

I'd like to add Hopkins. I don't think Davis is an adequate WR2, but as is, there is enough talent for the offense to be improved. I have more questions about Dorsey than I do about the offense. And Josh Allen needs to use the short and intermediate routes more. Long ball priority is a welcome change from the old days when third and long was an automatic punt, but the reason Knox's numbers don't stand out to you is both too often he was required to stay in and help the porous oline and when that didn't happen, Josh looked elsewhere while TE1 is wide open. And that summary rejection of Harty you make, let's just use that to include all the new additions on the back end of the WR room. The proper response is not to treat that as deficient and null until proven otherwise, but as a genuine potential to be determined. You don't know and can't know, so no one is compelled to logically follow your assertion that it's more of the same or that Beane is unintentionally fielding a less than optimum team. Given the constraints of the cap while paying up a franchise qb, it appears to me on the contrary that Beane has perhaps had his best off-season.

 

So there, I match your rant with a rant from the other point of view.

he is just giving one bad narrative after another... 

[Dr. Who]

4 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

just saying..

he is just giving one bad narrative after another... 

I don't recall ever agreeing with one of his takes, though there may be an exception to the rule.

[FireChans]

6 hours ago, Cash said:

Is it, though? How do they compare in terms of highest-paid DTs or % of cap? Especially over the first 3 years of EdO’s deal, since the Bills can get out of it easily at that point. 

Yes

[eball]

Liked what I heard from Ed yesterday.  Seems to really appreciate the Bills for making this deal and wants to prove to everyone he deserves it.

 

[FLFan]

I had not seen this posted yet.  The contract details for Oliver are out.  There is a good summary here:  https://apple.news/ADJ6L-PASS_2cFdDkYyfP2w. The details are also available on Spotrac.  As I suspected, it is essentially a new 5 year contract with an out after 3.  Very cap friendly for the first two years.  The details reenforce my view that this is a good value contract for a very good, though not elite, player.  

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, FLFan said:

I had not seen this posted yet.  The contract details for Oliver are out.  There is a good summary here:  https://apple.news/ADJ6L-PASS_2cFdDkYyfP2w. The details are also available on Spotrac.  As I suspected, it is essentially a new 5 year contract with an out after 3.  Very cap friendly for the first two years.  The details reenforce my view that this is a good value contract for a very good, though not elite, player.  

Yep, the BN has it too: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/bills-defensive-tackle-ed-oliver-intends-to-outplay-value-of-new-contract-just-sit-back/article_263576d2-04a3-11ee-8588-b742461685b5.html

 

“This year: Salary cap hit of $4.978 million (down from $10.753 million) and base salary of $2,028,000.

 

2024: Cap hit of $9.175 million and base salary of $14.75 million. Immediately guaranteed is $7.75 million of the base salary; the remaining $7 million will become guaranteed a day after the February 2024 Super Bowl.

 

2024: Cap hit of $9.175 million and base salary of $14.75 million. Immediately guaranteed is $7.75 million of the base salary; the remaining $7 million will become guaranteed a day after the February 2024 Super Bowl.

 

From 2024-27, Oliver’s cap charge will include an annual $6.075 million signing bonus and $500,000 roster bonus. From 2024-26, Oliver can earn $7.225 million annually via roster bonuses ($425,000 per game).“

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Kincaid will be fun to watch, but I'm not expecting a rookie TE starting the season at #2 or #3 to be much of a factor at all

 

It's hard to take anything you say seriously when this statement shows that you haven't been paying attention at all. I mean here you're implying there's a chance Kincaid starts the season as the #3 TE behind Quintin Morris. Have you listened to a single thing the team and beat reporters have said about Kincaid's role?

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by HappyDays

[SoCal Deek]

31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Yep, the BN has it too: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/bills-defensive-tackle-ed-oliver-intends-to-outplay-value-of-new-contract-just-sit-back/article_263576d2-04a3-11ee-8588-b742461685b5.html

 

“This year: Salary cap hit of $4.978 million (down from $10.753 million) and base salary of $2,028,000.

 

2024: Cap hit of $9.175 million and base salary of $14.75 million. Immediately guaranteed is $7.75 million of the base salary; the remaining $7 million will become guaranteed a day after the February 2024 Super Bowl.

 

2024: Cap hit of $9.175 million and base salary of $14.75 million. Immediately guaranteed is $7.75 million of the base salary; the remaining $7 million will become guaranteed a day after the February 2024 Super Bowl.

 

From 2024-27, Oliver’s cap charge will include an annual $6.075 million signing bonus and $500,000 roster bonus. From 2024-26, Oliver can earn $7.225 million annually via roster bonuses ($425,000 per game).“

I hate to be ‘that guy’ but geez these players are overpaid! Do the math and convert that roster bonus to ‘per play’…. I mean yikes!