Ed Oliver big extension

[QCity]

8 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

All of this makes sense. I just do not get the hate for the dude on these boards. 

 

It's not hatred. Where the hell do you get hatred from?

[Bill from NYC]

14 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

5 or those 6 positions are upgrading depth. It's my strongly held belief that depth has not been the thing preventing us from winning a Super Bowl. It's the lack of top end talent. We didn't improve at any of those spots. We have a middling journeyman and a rookie to try to solve our guard weakness. They may succeed at it, but again, guard play isn't why we haven't won a ring. 
 

I agree that guard play is not "the reason" but it certainly has factored into the equation. We have a great QB who far too often had to run for his life, and took too many hits. This not only hurt us in terms of getting a ring, Josh getting punished as such is a huge long term detriment to the franchise. 

 

It is an offensive league. We all know this. Good guard play is essential for the Bills. I do also agree that a rookie and a journeyman are no real guarantee of improvement, but we had to start somewhere. The amount of resources that McDermott devotes to the defensive side is staggering. I hope that next season he will do the same with offensive linemen and wide receivers. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, QCity said:

 

It's not hatred. Where the hell do you get hatred from?

Intentionally misrepresenting opponents’ positions is called the Straw Man Fallacy. That and the Appeal to Authority Fallacy are super popular here. In this particular instance it is difficult to justify the size of extension Oliver got. It’s an obvious overpay even if it’s no worse than the Star contract. At least Oliver is a good player. There just aren’t a lot of sexy arguments for either side though. But if someone wants to pretend that some Bills fans hate Oliver, then that’s spicy. And it’s easy for someone to pretend to take the high ground. 

Edited June 6, 2023 by BarleyNY

[SoCal Deek]

One thing I know for sure is that Beane knows one heck of a lot more about where the Bills are in relation to the Cap both now and in the years to come than anyone on this Message Board. It’s just one of the reasons why I stay away from that topic. It’s way too complicated and we really have no idea what other chess moves are in the offing. So…I’m guessing there’s more to the Oliver extension than most of us think or know. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Breakdown 

 

 

[The Wiz]

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Breakdown 

 

 

 

Good deal, the thought was it would free between 5-7 mil in space for this year 

[nedboy7]

According to NFL's NextGen Stats, Oliver has generated an 11.6% pressure rate over the last three seasons, which is the fourth-highest among defensive tackles during that time frame among players with a minimum of 600 pass rushes. The three players ahead of him on that list -- San Francisco's Javon Hargrave, Washington's Jonathan Allen and the Los Angeles Rams' Aaron Donald -- all make at least $18 million per season. That shows the value teams place on interior pass rush.

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

According to NFL's NextGen Stats, Oliver has generated an 11.6% pressure rate over the last three seasons, which is the fourth-highest among defensive tackles during that time frame among players with a minimum of 600 pass rushes. The three players ahead of him on that list -- San Francisco's Javon Hargrave, Washington's Jonathan Allen and the Los Angeles Rams' Aaron Donald -- all make at least $18 million per season. That shows the value teams place on interior pass rush.

I'm still in shock by this. I'd like to know how they measure "pressure"  did Oliver barely break the plain of the pressure area on a lot of those? 

[Maine-iac]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Here are the extensions:

 

Allen, Dawkins, Milano and Tre White weren't projections when extended.........they were paid for what they were at the time and had been for some time prior.     More of the same was plenty to justify those deals.   The success of the Diggs extension is TBD at this point........he'd still be under his old deal even this season still......as he was under contract for two more seasons before Beane extended him at $26M per for 2024-2027.  

 

Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain were all released less than a calendar year after their extensions........Spain didn't even make it half way thru his first season of that extension.  Ryan Bates looks like he might have lost his starting job already.    Adding 2 years $20M to to Morse to extend him after already having made him the highest paid C in the NFL isn't a particular cap success story but compared to the other OL extensions it obviously could have gone much worse.

 

The Dawson Knox extension is TBD.   He got top 5 TE money at the time in anticipation of getting better.........but then was basically the same player he had been in 2021.......which is to say more like top 15-20 TE.   He's the 7th highest paid TE in the NFL this coming season.   Hopefully things go better for him this season on and off the field and his pay and his performance start getting closer to each other in 2023.

 

The Ed Oliver extension is different from every other extension Beane has done.

 

Where Knox was similarly paid for anticipated improvement.........DK was also coming off of a season where he was on the field for over 900 offensive snaps.    

 

Oliver not only doesn't play the snaps of other top DT's he also is being paid for anticipated improvement.

 

So while I don't disagree that Beane has had a considerably better track record with own-player extensions than he has had in free agency(where he's had putrid results)........I think they've gotten past the point where the players that are coming up for extension are relative slam dunks in terms of past performance and contract asking price like the Allen/Dawkins/Milano/White group.  

 

 

Just because of all the snap count talk I was looking into it and from mid season on nobody played more snaps on the D line than Oliver and he actually averaged 70 percent per game the second half of the season.  Seeing how he was injured the first half it stands to reason he played less then.  More than Hargrove or Cox over the second half of the season.   About on par with Reader but not as many as Hill or Jones.  I think Reader is a great comparison actually.  The money is similar the play is similar.  About where it lies for me.  A middle of the road contract for a solid player with a hint of upside left at his age.  If we resigned him at 21 or 22 mil a year like Hargrove or Payne I'd feel a lot worse about it.  Sign a big bodied DT to play beside him he plays the role of penetrating DT pretty well and stands a good chance of playing up to the dollar value of what we signed him at.

 

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=BUF&year=2022

 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Maine-iac

[BuffaloRebound]

That $10.7m cap hit this year was a bit of an albatross for Beane.  The extension allows him to finagle Oliver’s cap numbers going forward.  We are lucky to have owners willing to spend the money to give Beane the flexibility to build a championship roster.  

[TBBills Fan]

46 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

That $10.7m cap hit this year was a bit of an albatross for Beane.  The extension allows him to finagle Oliver’s cap numbers going forward.  We are lucky to have owners willing to spend the money to give Beane the flexibility to build a championship roster.  

 

 

I certainly don't miss the old "cash to the cap" strategy

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I'm still in shock by this. I'd like to know how they measure "pressure"  did Oliver barely break the plain of the pressure area on a lot of those? 

 

If you watch the film it is entirely consistent with what the data shows. Like I have said repeatedly in this thread... his underlying analytics are strong. There is good reason to believe that the bare production numbers do not fully reflect Ed's game. For the new contract to be good value over the longer term that has to change, no question, but people thinking Beane has lost his mind on this deal have to recognise that the view they have taken is backed up by a reasonable body of evidence. 

[Royale with Cheese]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If you watch the film it is entirely consistent with what the data shows. Like I have said repeatedly in this thread... his underlying analytics are strong. There is good reason to believe that the bare production numbers do not fully reflect Ed's game. For the new contract to be good value over the longer term that has to change, no question, but people thinking Beane has lost his mind on this deal have to recognise that the view they have taken is backed up by a reasonable body of evidence. 

 

I know I've came to you multiple times on Ed because I've been a little disappointed in his production.

 

But between you and @MrEpsYtown, I trust your analysis and now am pro-Ed on this contract.  I watched the Cover 1 breakdown and I'm starting to see what you guys are seeing in his game.  I still want more splash plays but I'm not uncomfortable with him anymore.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

According to NFL's NextGen Stats, Oliver has generated an 11.6% pressure rate over the last three seasons, which is the fourth-highest among defensive tackles during that time frame among players with a minimum of 600 pass rushes. The three players ahead of him on that list -- San Francisco's Javon Hargrave, Washington's Jonathan Allen and the Los Angeles Rams' Aaron Donald -- all make at least $18 million per season. That shows the value teams place on interior pass rush.

It’s amazing how well he does analytically. They need to extend Jones.
 

 

[The Wiz]

 

 

[HappyDays]

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

I like it. That is a very good contract. Gives the team a lot of flexibility while locking a guy who still has a very high ceiling in at a very good price.

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like it. That is a very good contract. Gives the team a lot of flexibility while locking a guy who still has a very high ceiling in at a very good price.

The devil is ALWAYS in the details. 

Again and again, people form kneejerk reactions to the first contract terms announced, and those ALWAYS come from the agent and are phrased in the way that seems most impressive for their client.

Now that we see the details of this particular contract, it makes a great deal more sense for the Bills than it may first have appeared. Well structured, and not particularly limiting -- certainly not crippling -- in any future years, should they decide to move on.

Well done, Beane, Overdorf, and crew.

[John from Riverside]

Here’s to ed making this contract look like a bargain