Ed Oliver big extension

[Rockinon]

On 6/4/2023 at 4:34 PM, GoBills808 said:

He literally tweeted this tho

 

So what? Every professional athlete wants to get paid. Doesn't mean that is his only motivation.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

He really wasn't double teamed all game long

 

When he lines up at the 3t he doesn't get double teamed at that high a frequency either from what I can see

3T can get double teamed
 

I’ve seen Oliver get double teamed and a fullback … that’s 3… and he shed

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Buffalo716

[GoBills808]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

3T get double teamed …. He’s double teamed a lot

 

 

I'm watching it rn...he draws double teams but it's not close to all game

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm watching it rn...he draws double teams but it's not close to all game

I didn’t say he gets doubled all day 

 

I said he does get doubled a lot for a 3T

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

I didn’t say he gets doubled all day 

 

I said he does get doubled a lot for a 3T

yes the guy I was talking to said he got doubled the whole Bengals game

 

in reality he just didn't play that well

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

1 hour ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

For starters, I disagree with you that he is closer to a replacement level player, however, out of curiosity, why do you think he is being paid like a superstar?

 

This contract puts him outside of the top 10 for DT’s, and more likely in the 15 to 20 range, once the next round of DT deals are signed. Do you consider that superstar money?  

 

I didn't say he was paid like a superstar, but that his contract is closer to superstar money (20+) than a replacement level guy (~10 or less). 

 

If different terminology is clearer; I think Oliver is above average, but closer to the average player than an elite one. 

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I didn't say he was paid like a superstar, but that his contract is closer to superstar money (20+) than a replacement level guy (~10 or less). 

 

If different terminology is clearer; I think Oliver is above average, but closer to the average player than an elite one. 

You would be surprised how razor thin the margin is between an above average starter and an elite player is in the nfl

 

Every and I mean every single player oozes so much athleticism and talent… Talent margin in the NFL is razor thin… That’s why 30% of the league is undrafted free agents

 

What makes the difference is how coachable a player is… do they have a good work ethic…Are they in the right scheme and fit… And do they have pieces around them to help them be better

 

and Can they keep the consistency day to day week to week…. Consistency is key for any football players growth

Edited June 6, 2023 by Buffalo716

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

I'm not disputing your math, I know how you did it.

 

I obviously did a poor job making my point.  Which is:

70% snaps: this is doable for him going forward, based on him doing it over 2nd half of season (yes cherry picked, but credible 8 games)....AND

 

We don't know how Coach plans to use him, with him taking over playcalls.  

 

Beane might be projecting 70% of snaps into that contract, is my point.  You'd say that's a bad projection, given past results...but none of us know yet how it will play out.

 

The Gabe comment is an unnecessary dig on him, just to further your agenda on him....has nothing to do with Ed Oliver.

 

The Gabriel Davis comment is called an analogy.

 

Gabe had a 6 game stretch from week 5-10 last season where he averaged 79 yards per game.............a 1343 yard 17 game pace........which would have placed him 8th in receiving yards in the NFL.   More than Travis Kelce, for reference.    

 

So would you be OK with Beane saying that 1300 yards is therefore doable for Gabe and that the Bills better jump on the chance to pay him top 20 WR money......which would be a $90M-$100M 5 year extension?

 

That's what we are talking about here with Oliver.    He has had a few great games but has yet to either play the snaps of.....or produce numbers that resemble a top DT.    I do agree that the floor needs to become AT LEAST 70% of the snaps......you can't be running in liabilities like Jordan Phillips or Brandin Bryant for 45% of the damn snaps and paying Ed $17M.   But that 70% is like 200 more snaps than he played just last season(presuming he plays 17).   It's a lot easier said than done.........and with those snaps he needs to add more than 1-2 sacks of production.

 

He simply has to become a MUCH better player.    That's generally not how these contracts are earned.

[buffaloboyinATL]

19 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I didn't say he was paid like a superstar, but that his contract is closer to superstar money (20+) than a replacement level guy (~10 or less). 

 

If different terminology is clearer; I think Oliver is above average, but closer to the average player than an elite one. 

Thank you for the clarification. I actually consider him “above average” too,  I just see enough elite traits, to classify him as closer to superstar than average.  

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The Gabriel Davis comment is called an analogy.

 

Gabe had a 6 game stretch from week 5-10 last season where he averaged 79 yards per game.............a 1343 yard 17 game pace........which would have placed him 8th in receiving yards in the NFL.   More than Travis Kelce, for reference.    

 

So would you be OK with Beane saying that 1300 yards is therefore doable for Gabe and that the Bills better jump on the chance to pay him top 20 WR money......which would be a $90M-$100M 5 year extension?

 

That's what we are talking about here with Oliver.    He has had a few great games but has yet to either play the snaps of.....or produce numbers that resemble a top DT.    I do agree that the floor needs to become AT LEAST 70% of the snaps......you can't be running in liabilities like Jordan Phillips or Brandin Bryant for 45% of the damn snaps and paying Ed $17M.   But that 70% is like 200 more snaps than he played just last season(presuming he plays 17).   It's a lot easier said than done.........and with those snaps he needs to add more than 1-2 sacks of production.

 

He simply has to become a MUCH better player.    That's generally not how these contracts are earned.

Again, like I said at the very start (which you chose not to address), Beane has a very good track record on extensions.  He's hit on a lot.  

 

Nothing wrong with what you said/believe, but it's just your opinion.  I have my opinion on what the Bills/Beane see in Ed....and I like him as a player, and much better than the alternative of using a high pick next year or potentially more $s to chase a FA.  

 

Re: Gabe, sure you can call it an analogy.  Again, let's see what our GM decides to do longterm with him.  He's been vocal and clear on what he thinks of both Ed's and Gabes future here.  One down, we'll see if Beane follows through with the second.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

buddy just watch the game

 

He was doubled as much as you'd expect your DT to be and he was at the 3T. He just got dominated

I also noticed some snaps where he was lining up at one technique

[Solomon Grundy]

On 6/4/2023 at 4:34 PM, GoBills808 said:

He literally tweeted this tho

 

I'm still waiting on the talking molecule😎

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I also noticed some snaps where he was lining up at one technique

I missed those, stand corrected @PrimeTime101you were right about him lining up at 1tech

[Buffalo716]

16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I missed those, stand corrected @PrimeTime101you were right about him lining up at 1tech

Go to 7.15 of your video 

1 tech

 

[PrimeTime101]

18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I missed those, stand corrected @PrimeTime101you were right about him lining up at 1tech

now they needed to put bodies on him because he is talented. IMAGINE a one tech next to him with von on one side and Floyde on the other. You cant double team von, ed, a one tech and floyd at the same time. So the point goes he needs to win the one on one battles moving forward and his production will go sky high. Thanks for recognizing it  

[BADOLBILZ]

34 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Again, like I said at the very start (which you chose not to address), Beane has a very good track record on extensions.  He's hit on a lot.  

 

Nothing wrong with what you said/believe, but it's just your opinion.  I have my opinion on what the Bills/Beane see in Ed....and I like him as a player, and much better than the alternative of using a high pick next year or potentially more $s to chase a FA.  

 

Re: Gabe, sure you can call it an analogy.  Again, let's see what our GM decides to do longterm with him.  He's been vocal and clear on what he thinks of both Ed's and Gabes future here.  One down, we'll see if Beane follows through with the second.

 

Here are the extensions:

 

Allen, Dawkins, Milano and Tre White weren't projections when extended.........they were paid for what they were at the time and had been for some time prior.     More of the same was plenty to justify those deals.   The success of the Diggs extension is TBD at this point........he'd still be under his old deal even this season still......as he was under contract for two more seasons before Beane extended him at $26M per for 2024-2027.  

 

Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain were all released less than a calendar year after their extensions........Spain didn't even make it half way thru his first season of that extension.  Ryan Bates looks like he might have lost his starting job already.    Adding 2 years $20M to to Morse to extend him after already having made him the highest paid C in the NFL isn't a particular cap success story but compared to the other OL extensions it obviously could have gone much worse.

 

The Dawson Knox extension is TBD.   He got top 5 TE money at the time in anticipation of getting better.........but then was basically the same player he had been in 2021.......which is to say more like top 15-20 TE.   He's the 7th highest paid TE in the NFL this coming season.   Hopefully things go better for him this season on and off the field and his pay and his performance start getting closer to each other in 2023.

 

The Ed Oliver extension is different from every other extension Beane has done.

 

Where Knox was similarly paid for anticipated improvement.........DK was also coming off of a season where he was on the field for over 900 offensive snaps.    

 

Oliver not only doesn't play the snaps of other top DT's he also is being paid for anticipated improvement.

 

So while I don't disagree that Beane has had a considerably better track record with own-player extensions than he has had in free agency(where he's had putrid results)........I think they've gotten past the point where the players that are coming up for extension are relative slam dunks in terms of past performance and contract asking price like the Allen/Dawkins/Milano/White group.  

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Here are the extensions:

 

Allen, Dawkins, Milano and Tre White weren't projections when extended.........they were paid for what they were at the time and had been for some time prior.     More of the same was plenty to justify those deals.   The success of the Diggs extension is TBD at this point........he'd still be under his old deal even this season still......as he was under contract for two more seasons before Beane extended him at $26M per for 2024-2027.  

 

Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain were all released less than a calendar year after their extensions........Spain didn't even make it half way thru his first season of that extension.  Ryan Bates looks like he might have lost his starting job already.    Adding 2 years $20M to to Morse to extend him after already having made him the highest paid C in the NFL isn't a particular cap success story but compared to the other OL extensions it obviously could have gone much worse.

 

The Dawson Knox extension is TBD.   He got top 5 TE money at the time in anticipation of getting better.........but then was basically the same player he had been in 2021.......which is to say more like top 15-20 TE.   He's the 7th highest paid TE in the NFL this coming season.   Hopefully things go better for him this season on and off the field and his pay and his performance start getting closer to each other in 2023.

 

The Ed Oliver extension is different from every other extension Beane has done.

 

Where Knox was similarly paid for anticipated improvement.........DK was also coming off of a season where he was on the field for over 900 offensive snaps.    

 

Oliver not only doesn't play the snaps of other top DT's he also is being paid for anticipated improvement.

 

So while I don't disagree that Beane has had a considerably better track record with own-player extensions than he has had in free agency(where he's had putrid results)........I think they've gotten past the point where the players that are coming up for extension are relative slam dunks in terms of past performance and contract asking price like the Allen/Dawkins/Milano/White group.  

 

 

Fair enough.

 

Like I mentioned before, I tend to agree with alot of your takes, and your points are well stated above.  Thanks for the info.

 

I'm seeing something different with Ed and like him at that $$ number, as opposed to potential alternatives next year.  But can understand your opinion and where you stand.

[PrimeTime101]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Here are the extensions:

 

Allen, Dawkins, Milano and Tre White weren't projections when extended.........they were paid for what they were at the time and had been for some time prior.     More of the same was plenty to justify those deals.   The success of the Diggs extension is TBD at this point........he'd still be under his old deal even this season still......as he was under contract for two more seasons before Beane extended him at $26M per for 2024-2027.  

 

Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain were all released less than a calendar year after their extensions........Spain didn't even make it half way thru his first season of that extension.  Ryan Bates looks like he might have lost his starting job already.    Adding 2 years $20M to to Morse to extend him after already having made him the highest paid C in the NFL isn't a particular cap success story but compared to the other OL extensions it obviously could have gone much worse.

 

The Dawson Knox extension is TBD.   He got top 5 TE money at the time in anticipation of getting better.........but then was basically the same player he had been in 2021.......which is to say more like top 15-20 TE.   He's the 7th highest paid TE in the NFL this coming season.   Hopefully things go better for him this season on and off the field and his pay and his performance start getting closer to each other in 2023.

 

The Ed Oliver extension is different from every other extension Beane has done.

 

Where Knox was similarly paid for anticipated improvement.........DK was also coming off of a season where he was on the field for over 900 offensive snaps.    

 

Oliver not only doesn't play the snaps of other top DT's he also is being paid for anticipated improvement.

 

So while I don't disagree that Beane has had a considerably better track record with own-player extensions than he has had in free agency(where he's had putrid results)........I think they've gotten past the point where the players that are coming up for extension are relative slam dunks in terms of past performance and contract asking price like the Allen/Dawkins/Milano/White group.  

 

 

All of this makes sense. I just do not get the hate for the dude on these boards. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

All of this makes sense. I just do not get the hate for the dude on these boards. 

I don’t get the sense people hate him. It's mostly unrealized anticipation and disappointment and that has as much to do with his draft position as it does his performance.  

I hated Murphy.  Edmunds was never in my hate category but I just refused to buy into the notion he was a difference maker in any way. 

[Doc Brown]

10 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

5 or those 6 positions are upgrading depth. It's my strongly held belief that depth has not been the thing preventing us from winning a Super Bowl. It's the lack of top end talent. We didn't improve at any of those spots. We have a middling journeyman and a rookie to try to solve our guard weakness. They may succeed at it, but again, guard play isn't why we haven't won a ring. Most people will know that I was a massive Edmunds detractor, but given the choice of Edmunds vs the drought-era scrubfest we're going into camp with, give me Edmunds all day.

When it comes to players that will actually make an impact in January and February. I honestly don't think we've improved, unless 2-3 guys like Shakir, Basham, Rousseau, Cook, Elam, Oliver have all-pro type breakout years and guys like White, Poyer, Hyde, Miller return to previous all-pro level form.

If I'm being honest, I don't see that happening for Basham, Rousseau, Cook, Oliver, White, Hyde, or Miller this year. I think we'll get good, not great production. I just don't see enough talent in the pipeline that's going to push us over Cinci and KC. Kincaid is a really cool prospect, but he was a luxury pick if you're trying to win this season. A veteran likely provides you with a bigger 2023 impact.

I'm not against Beane' philosophy of "not going all in", because I too think the right way to win a super bowl is to make sure you've got a shot every year like the steelers, packers, patriots and others did for almost two decades, but there comes a time where you have to look at your team and wonder if it's good enough the way it's constructed. We took the NFL's most expensive defensive line and just threw even more money at without upgrading the talent at all - rewarding a guy who isn't good enough to get the job done with an even larger share of the team's minimal resources.

I just don't see how the formula works. I'm watching what KC is doing and what Cinci is doing and I don't think our staff is even in the same league. Take away Allen, and this isn't even decent team imo.

I disagree that 5 of the 6 positions I said we improved at was just adding depth.  I'd say we're now better at 6 of 7 starting positions I mentioned (TE2, LG, DT, DE, WR3, RB) with the signing of Floyd.  I'll grant you that we only added depth at safety. Just simplifying for one on one comparisons with everyone else coming back at these positions....

 

Kincaid>Morris, McGovern>Saffold, Ford>Settle, Floyd>Basham, Harty>McKenzie, Harris>Singletary

 

I understand your point that we're relying on veterans to regain their previous form and young players to play to their full potential at certain positions.  However, what's the alternative?  Who would you have drafted instead of Kincaid that would guarantee us a better player at a premier position?  Jack Campbell was off the board.  Who would you have signed at safety that would be an upgrade over Poyer?

 

There's definitely a case to be made that it would've been smarter to re-sign Edmunds and let Oliver play out his final year of his contract.  That's fair and I can see both sides to that argument.  The problem I had with your post is the suggestion that Beane is tanking this season on purpose despite no evidence at all to suggest he is.  There's nothing he's done this offseason that points to that even if you disagree with his team building approach.

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Doc Brown