Ed Oliver big extension

[Beck Water]

On 6/3/2023 at 4:26 PM, Negan said:

When Daquan was playing next to him, was pretty decent.

 

Fine with me, not sure if we had any DTs under contract past this year

 

We did not

I will say this, Oliver showed up for his interview with Maddy Glab with a cute little crawler - ~6-9 months?  Oliver, as many players, has been quiet about his personal life, but he evidently has one and now a little girl.  He seemed very comfortable with her, too, like he's an active parent.

 

It's not unknown for some players, once they have kids and sometimes a stable relationship, to kind of level-up and take their game more seriously 'cuz now they got shoes to fill as a Dad
 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/instant-reaction-ed-oliver-signs-a-four-year-contract-extension-buffalo-bills

Edited June 5, 2023 by Beck Water

[buffaloboyinATL]

2 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

The one thing I notice about Oliver is that while he can be disruptive, he often flies into the backfield out of control and fails to finish the play.  The QB slides one way or another and Ed flies by.  Jerry Hughes used to do this a lot too, screaming off the edge out of control.  That's why his pressure rate was so good but he had a hard time finishing the plays.

 

It's great being disruptive but he needs to play with more control so he can breakdown and finish plays. 

No argument here. Although Hughes was a bit different.  He would often go too deep off the edge and then struggle to get back to the ball in time. But the comparison is valid.   

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

My math is the ACTUAL math over the course of his career not just a tiny subset of games you are trying to cherry pick in his defense.

 

It's been pretty static with Ed Oliver and his 60% snap counts in 2022 don't even count games that he missed to injury.   He actually played the least % of total defensive snaps of any season because last season he missed 3 full games and subsequently had the lowest snap total of his career.    I'm not slighting him even a bit on the math I am actually giving him a full pass for games missed to injury while judging him on his full body of work.    He's far, far from an 80% snap guy.   Miles from it.

 

As for not knowing yet what he will look like in the future.........I guess we don't know that Gabriel Davis isn't going to put up 1500 yards and 12 TD's next season either...........but I'm not going to pay him like a WR1 now in anticipation that he will essentially double his career production.    That's kinda' what they are doing with Ed Oliver........hoping that he plays and produces A LOT more.    

 

What he's done doesn't justify top pay.    That's the only way we can judge the deal at this point.   He's had 4 years of runway to prove what he is.   The Poona Ford-esque sack and tackle numbers coming from a guy who is playing the playmaking 3T not the grinding 1T just don't justify the VAST difference between making a few million and $17M.        

I'm not disputing your math, I know how you did it.

 

I obviously did a poor job making my point.  Which is:

70% snaps: this is doable for him going forward, based on him doing it over 2nd half of season (yes cherry picked, but credible 8 games)....AND

 

We don't know how Coach plans to use him, with him taking over playcalls.  

 

Beane might be projecting 70% of snaps into that contract, is my point.  You'd say that's a bad projection, given past results...but none of us know yet how it will play out.

 

The Gabe comment is an unnecessary dig on him, just to further your agenda on him....has nothing to do with Ed Oliver.

[BullBuchanan]

On 6/4/2023 at 6:04 AM, DC Greg said:

Ridiculous post. This isn’t the NBA. You’re never a player or two away. So much has to click in football and a lot of it is good luck at the right few moments in the playoffs, where it’s win or go home, not a 7 game series. We’re going to compete for a championship every year Josh Allen is healthy and at the helm. Relax.

lol, wut? I'm not sure you meant to reply to my post, because your take has nothing to do with mine.

[John from Riverside]

I am still in wait and see mode on Oliver, but it did allow us to get more pass rush on the edge with the money used in the extension
 

That Hass to be factored in

[BullBuchanan]

On 6/4/2023 at 2:39 AM, Doc Brown said:

Six upgraded position groups imo.  Six that stayed the Same.  One got worse.  This is a really bad post and may be an overreaction to what you deem a bad extension.

 

TE - (Kinkaid > Morris/Sweeney)

IOL - (McGovern, Edwards, Torrence all better than Saffold).  Morse and Bates returning.

WR -  (Harty/Scherfield > McKenzie/Kumerow)

RB - (Harris/Murray > Singletary/D. Johnson).  Even if you think it's a push Stevenson and Murray don't have the fumbling problems Singletary has.

DT - upgraded (Poonah Ford > Tim Settle).  Settle's still on the team but likely just a depth piece now who'll struggle to make the game time roster.

S - upgraded (Taylor Rapp is better than any backup safety we had on the team last year).

 

Stayed the same. - CB, OT, P, K, DE, QB

 

Got worse - LB

 

5 or those 6 positions are upgrading depth. It's my strongly held belief that depth has not been the thing preventing us from winning a Super Bowl. It's the lack of top end talent. We didn't improve at any of those spots. We have a middling journeyman and a rookie to try to solve our guard weakness. They may succeed at it, but again, guard play isn't why we haven't won a ring. Most people will know that I was a massive Edmunds detractor, but given the choice of Edmunds vs the drought-era scrubfest we're going into camp with, give me Edmunds all day.

When it comes to players that will actually make an impact in January and February. I honestly don't think we've improved, unless 2-3 guys like Shakir, Basham, Rousseau, Cook, Elam, Oliver have all-pro type breakout years and guys like White, Poyer, Hyde, Miller return to previous all-pro level form.

If I'm being honest, I don't see that happening for Basham, Rousseau, Cook, Oliver, White, Hyde, or Miller this year. I think we'll get good, not great production. I just don't see enough talent in the pipeline that's going to push us over Cinci and KC. Kincaid is a really cool prospect, but he was a luxury pick if you're trying to win this season. A veteran likely provides you with a bigger 2023 impact.

I'm not against Beane' philosophy of "not going all in", because I too think the right way to win a super bowl is to make sure you've got a shot every year like the steelers, packers, patriots and others did for almost two decades, but there comes a time where you have to look at your team and wonder if it's good enough the way it's constructed. We took the NFL's most expensive defensive line and just threw even more money at without upgrading the talent at all - rewarding a guy who isn't good enough to get the job done with an even larger share of the team's minimal resources.

I just don't see how the formula works. I'm watching what KC is doing and what Cinci is doing and I don't think our staff is even in the same league. Take away Allen, and this isn't even decent team imo.

[BigAl2526]

18 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Maybe, I know that I'm optimistic about the play of the offense this season.  As I've said, I can see our offense being the best that the franchise has ever had.  

 

But if Dorsey cannot run it effectively that's not going to happen.  Trying to guess what's going to happen there is anyone's guess.  

 

Otherwise, there are plenty of reasons for concern that we're all aware of.  The results of the season will answer quite a few questions IMHO.  I have a hunch that the discussions here 6 months from now or in January are going to be a whole lot different than they now are.  Again, we'll see.  Nothing to lose one's mind over.  LOL  

 

 

 

The rumors are that it has freed up cap space this season.  Otherwise how does one explain $45M guaranteed.  It sounds like they guaranteed him more if he'd restructure and take less now.  

 

Possibly to sign Hopkins?  

 

 

I made the assumption because I saw reports that it was a four year deal, yet I also saw reports that he would be a Bill through five seasons.  The extension after 2023 would reconcile the those two different reports.  If the new contract affects this year's compensation, then either one of those two reports is wrong or there is some explanation I can't fathom.

[Royale with Cheese]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Great post.  In no way is he worth extending; he's undersized at this level, always has been, and always will be.

 

The fast small DL concept worked in college football in the '80s and '90s...That crap has no place in the modern NFL.

 

I would have 330 pound lard asses up and down the line and tell them to simply not let anything go through them.  Put the talent a layer deeper..

 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

Ed Oliver on this board went from dud to stud with 1 post!  Amazing!

yep. People need to stick to their guns or admit defeat... I have done a little of both on this topic

 

5 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

I don't disagree with you on that.  I just don't thing EO is worth extending. His zero tackle performance against Cincy's second string OL really cemented it for me. He gets pushed around.

he was double teamed all game long.. where was the rest of the line that game. That is a question you should be asking. 

[Sharky7337]

Everytime I see this thread title I think of innapropriate things.

[Green Lightning]

25 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

he was double teamed all game long.. where was the rest of the line that game. That is a question you should be asking. 

He didn't record a single tackle. Look you like the guy. So do I. He's good when he gets the jump and gets pushed around otherwise.  Last year that worked out to few sacks and lots of yards given up on the ground. We'll see if this year he makes more of an impact.

[GoBills808]

42 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

yep. People need to stick to their guns or admit defeat... I have done a little of both on this topic

 

he was double teamed all game long.. where was the rest of the line that game. That is a question you should be asking. 

He really wasn't double teamed all game long

 

When he lines up at the 3t he doesn't get double teamed at that high a frequency either from what I can see

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I think Oliver is a pretty good player, but he's closer to a replacement level player than he is to a super-star player. 

 

Unfortunately his new contract is closer to super-star money than it is replacement level money. 

 

You can manipulate the cap as much as you want, but I don't think it's worth it for a guy like Oliver and would not be surprised if this hurts us in the next few seasons. 

[Aussie Joe]

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

When I first saw $68m for Ed, I thought, "What the heck is Beane doing?!?!"

 

But I've settled down.  If you include his 5th year option, Oliver will average about $10.75 over the next five years.   That ranks 16th among DLinemen.  

 

If each team fields four down linemen, then there are 32 starting DTs in the NFL.  But since some teams use 3-man fronts, there are actually fewer than 32 starting DTs in the NFL which makes Ed's pay less than average.  

 

And if you think ahead a couple of years, by then Ed's contract will be significantly below average for a starting DT.  

this is the second time someone has made this mistake of $10 m a year ?
 

Can’t really grasp how you get that figure…

2 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

Ed Oliver on this board went from dud to stud with 1 post!  Amazing!

Im waiting for the 100 page thread that Hopkins is no good as soon as he signs with someone else

[billsfan89]

Has anyone been able to see how much the cap savings are for Oliver's deal? Sorry if it has been posted.

[buffaloboyinATL]

18 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I think Oliver is a pretty good player, but he's closer to a replacement level player than he is to a super-star player. 

 

Unfortunately his new contract is closer to super-star money than it is replacement level money. 

 

You can manipulate the cap as much as you want, but I don't think it's worth it for a guy like Oliver and would not be surprised if this hurts us in the next few seasons. 

For starters, I disagree with you that he is closer to a replacement level player, however, out of curiosity, why do you think he is being paid like a superstar?

 

This contract puts him outside of the top 10 for DT’s, and more likely in the 15 to 20 range, once the next round of DT deals are signed. Do you consider that superstar money?  

[KHAN]

Whew. I could only stomach page one. But it's nice to know that with Edmunds gone, we have settled early on the scapegoat for the next few seasons.

 

It's good to get that wrapped up before camp.

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Green Lightning said:

He didn't record a single tackle. Look you like the guy. So do I. He's good when he gets the jump and gets pushed around otherwise.  Last year that worked out to few sacks and lots of yards given up on the ground. We'll see if this year he makes more of an impact.

guess you still miss the part that he was double teamed all game. He was basically playing the role of a 1 tech. that is what they do. take on double teams.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

guess you still miss the part that he was double teamed all game. He was basically playing the role of a 1 tech. that is what they do. take on double teams.

buddy just watch the game

 

He was doubled as much as you'd expect your DT to be and he was at the 3T. He just got dominated

[FLFan]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

I'm not disputing your math, I know how you did it.

 

I obviously did a poor job making my point.  Which is:

70% snaps: this is doable for him going forward, based on him doing it over 2nd half of season (yes cherry picked, but credible 8 games)....AND

 

We don't know how Coach plans to use him, with him taking over playcalls.  

 

Beane might be projecting 70% of snaps into that contract, is my point.  You'd say that's a bad projection, given past results...but none of us know yet how it will play out.

 

The Gabe comment is an unnecessary dig on him, just to further your agenda on him....has nothing to do with Ed Oliver.

You make solid points.  I just think generally it is a little early for this kind of analysis from any perspective.  We do not know the full details of the contract at this point. Spotrac does not have it and if any other site has posted, I am unaware/could not find.  I suspect if the details and terms were hugely favorable to Oliver we would have heard from his agent by now.  The guarantees were are fairly low for a player of this caliber  which makes me believe the Bills have outs 2 or 3 years in on the new deal, and that there is some significant contract money tied to incentives.  I suspect this deal will look even better when full details are known.  As it stands even with what we know, the Bills are locking up a solid and valuable starter at a premium position for a fair amount.  They could certainly not replace him at this price, and while they could count on finding draft gold, that seems more unlikely than Oliver playing to his potential.