Ed Oliver big extension

[Reks Ryan]

On 6/3/2023 at 6:16 PM, Capco said:

Here's a hypothetical contract structure which shows how this move can make cap sense:

 

Extension value:  $68m

Guaranteed total:  $45m

Signing bonus:  $25m

Salary total:  $43m

 

Cap Hits (by year; amortized signing bonus listed first)

1. $5m + $1m = $6m (creating $4m in cap space)
2. $5m + $8m = $13m
3. $5m + $11m = $16m
4. $5m + $11m = $16m
5. $5m + $12m = $17m

 

Total Cash Paid (by year)

1. $25m + $1m = $26m
2. $26m + $8m = $34m
3. $34m + $11m = $45m (guaranteed total met)
4. $45m + $11m = $56m
5. $56m + $12m =$68m

it's a $68 mil 4 year extension.  He was already set get paid over $10 mil guaranteed in 2023.   So I think the total contract value is around $78 million

[MasterStrategist]

18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You see that's more like it.........providing what you think is the info that makes him worthy of $30K per snap.

 

The issue is that pressures alone don't elevate you as a pass rusher and run stop win rate when you aren't only making 30 some tackles because you aren't playing that much is limited in it's value.

 

If pressures were THAT valued then Jerry Hughes would have been seen in a much different light when he was at the top of the league in pass rush win rate and pressures but only getting 5 sacks per year.    Beane isn't spending early picks on DE's and signing Von Miller if Jerry's ifs and buts were candies and nuts.

 

The big money per snap should be reserved for closers and guys who do it while not having to be subbed out for 40% or more of the snaps.   Ed's snap counts are so incredibly low that he's basically a situational pass rusher compared to the other top producers.

 

In short.........he needs to become a very different player.........one who plays more snaps and makes more plays to justify $17M per season.  

Jerry isn't a great example, just my opinion.

 

A "pressure" from defensive end VS DT is very different.  Jerry got past the OT (bc of his speed), that often counts as a pressure....but in reality, didn't disrupt the passer.

 

Whereas, Ed's pressure is directly in the face of the QB, often leading to a hurried throw/incompletion OR sack by another player (or Ed himself).  

 

It's way different to me.

 

As far as Ed's snap counts, his average ticked up at the 2nd half of season and was close to 70%.  That's different than your math....but I agree if he's playing 60% or fewer snaps, then that makes his deal look different.  Do you or I know yet what that will look like?  

 

The answer is No, and we have dodged the alternative of looking for a high-round or high-$ replacement next offseason, at a core position.

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You see that's more like it.........providing what you think is the info that makes him worthy of $30K per snap.

 

The issue is that pressures alone don't elevate you as a pass rusher and run stop win rate when you aren't only making 30 some tackles because you aren't playing that much is limited in it's value.

 

If pressures were THAT valued then Jerry Hughes would have been seen in a much different light when he was at the top of the league in pass rush win rate and pressures but only getting 5 sacks per year.    Beane isn't spending early picks on DE's and signing Von Miller if Jerry's ifs and buts were candies and nuts.

 

The big money per snap should be reserved for closers and guys who do it while not having to be subbed out for 40% or more of the snaps.   Ed's snap counts are so incredibly low that he's basically a situational pass rusher compared to the other top producers.

 

In short.........he needs to become a very different player.........one who plays more snaps and makes more plays to justify $17M per season.  

 

I don't disagree with that. He does need the bare production numbers to improve to justify that contract. And he needs to maintain the sort of play percentage we saw the 2nd half of last season or, to be more accurate, the team needs to keep putting him out there at that kinda clip. If over the next 3 years Ed is still around 4 sacks and 9 or 10 TFLs earning $17m AAV then whether he is the 13th best paid DT (as he is now) or the 23rd best paid DT is almost irrelevant because the question becomes the opportunity cost with that money. But there are reasons, both on the film and in the underlying analytics, to believe that the bare production does not accurately reflect who Ed is. Of course there is a chance they do - and the Jerry Hughes comparison is noted - and that is the risk with this contract. But I still think there is a huge ceiling for Ed Oliver and while I recognise the possibility this contract looks like a huge overpay in 3 years time it could also look like a huge bargain (or frankly anywhere in between) and I tend to fall on the optimistic end with this player. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Nextmanup]

Horrific judgment here; I like Beane A LOT...but he ain't perfect and every no and again he really ***** the bed.

 

Can't believe they did this.

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Nextmanup

[BarleyNY]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As for snap counts, over the final 8 games in 2022 Ed Oliver played an average of 70% (70.125% to be exact - no guesstimation here) of the defensive snaps. If that is the frequency of use they intend going forward I think that can justify the investment should the bare production numbers take the uptick that I agree they need to.

 

That is very misleading. Even with Oliver’s snap count increasing the last 8 games he still only played 50.18% of defensive snaps in 2022. His snap rates in 2019-2021 were 53.67%, 53.97% & 57.79%, respectively. His production, including his PRWR has to be viewed with this in mind. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022-snap-counts.htm

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

That is very misleading. Even with Oliver’s snap count increasing the last 8 games he still only played 50.18% of defensive snaps in 2022. His snap rates in 2019-2021 were 53.67%, 53.97% & 57.79%, respectively. His production, including his PRWR has to be viewed with this in mind. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022-snap-counts.htm

 

Yes - but that is because he missed time hurt. Of course that is a worry but he hasn't missed a lot of time hurt. In the second half of 2022 the message seemed to get through to the Bills coaches that they needed Ed on the field more. If they are going to justify this extension they definitely need that to become the long term pattern rather than the rotation rates of his first 3 years. 

 

I am not trying to mislead, just to make the point that the Bills did change their approach on that at the end of last year. 

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, Green Lightning said:

I don't disagree with you on that.  I just don't thing EO is worth extending. His zero tackle performance against Cincy's second string OL really cemented it for me. He gets pushed around.

Great post.  In no way is he worth extending; he's undersized at this level, always has been, and always will be.

 

The fast small DL concept worked in college football in the '80s and '90s...That crap has no place in the modern NFL.

 

I would have 330 pound lard asses up and down the line and tell them to simply not let anything go through them.  Put the talent a layer deeper..

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

When I first saw $68m for Ed, I thought, "What the heck is Beane doing?!?!"

 

But I've settled down.  If you include his 5th year option, Oliver will average about $10.75 over the next five years.   That ranks 16th among DLinemen.  

 

If each team fields four down linemen, then there are 32 starting DTs in the NFL.  But since some teams use 3-man fronts, there are actually fewer than 32 starting DTs in the NFL which makes Ed's pay less than average.  

 

And if you think ahead a couple of years, by then Ed's contract will be significantly below average for a starting DT.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

When I first saw $68m for Ed, I thought, "What the heck is Beane doing?!?!"

 

But I've settled down.  If you include his 5th year option, Oliver will average about $10.75 over the next five years.   That ranks 16th among DLinemen.  

 

If each team fields four down linemen, then there are 32 starting DTs in the NFL.  But since some teams use 3-man fronts, there are actually fewer than 32 starting DTs in the NFL which makes Ed's pay less than average.  

 

And if you think ahead a couple of years, by then Ed's contract will be significantly below average for a starting DT.  

 

The number is $15.75m - $10.75m on the option, plus $68m = $78.75m / 5 years = $15.75m AAV. I think that is what you meant though because it would rank 16th among DTackles. 

 

But if every NFL team played a 4-3 there would be 64 starting DTackles. They don't of course... but that is the math. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

When I first saw $68m for Ed, I thought, "What the heck is Beane doing?!?!"

 

But I've settled down.  If you include his 5th year option, Oliver will average about $10.75 over the next five years.   That ranks 16th among DLinemen.  

 

If each team fields four down linemen, then there are 32 starting DTs in the NFL.  But since some teams use 3-man fronts, there are actually fewer than 32 starting DTs in the NFL which makes Ed's pay less than average.  

 

And if you think ahead a couple of years, by then Ed's contract will be significantly below average for a starting DT.  

are you including his 5th year option for all the guys above him who signed extensions too

[BADOLBILZ]

53 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

As far as Ed's snap counts, his average ticked up at the 2nd half of season and was close to 70%.  That's different than your math....but I agree if he's playing 60% or fewer snaps, then that makes his deal look different.  Do you or I know yet what that will look like?  

 

The answer is No, and we have dodged the alternative of looking for a high-round or high-$ replacement next offseason, at a core position.

 

 

My math is the ACTUAL math over the course of his career not just a tiny subset of games you are trying to cherry pick in his defense.

 

It's been pretty static with Ed Oliver and his 60% snap counts in 2022 don't even count games that he missed to injury.   He actually played the least % of total defensive snaps of any season because last season he missed 3 full games and subsequently had the lowest snap total of his career.    I'm not slighting him even a bit on the math I am actually giving him a full pass for games missed to injury while judging him on his full body of work.    He's far, far from an 80% snap guy.   Miles from it.

 

As for not knowing yet what he will look like in the future.........I guess we don't know that Gabriel Davis isn't going to put up 1500 yards and 12 TD's next season either...........but I'm not going to pay him like a WR1 now in anticipation that he will essentially double his career production.    That's kinda' what they are doing with Ed Oliver........hoping that he plays and produces A LOT more.    

 

What he's done doesn't justify top pay.    That's the only way we can judge the deal at this point.   He's had 4 years of runway to prove what he is.   The Poona Ford-esque sack and tackle numbers coming from a guy who is playing the playmaking 3T not the grinding 1T just don't justify the VAST difference between making a few million and $17M.        

[TBBills Fan]

23 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

We are.  You're not.

🤔
*
EDIT: After seeing your 'sad' reaction, cheer up!  We're just rattling your cage! 😁

 

 

You broke my heart.

21 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

i feel like ed oliver needs a meeting with the bobs

 

 

 

 

I wouldn't say I've been "missing" it

[Roundybout]

 

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

/yep. Oliver is just average     Great find! Thank You!

[Gunsgoodtime]

Ed Oliver on this board went from dud to stud with 1 post!  Amazing!

[ngbills]

Ed Oliver is cut, traded, or not resigned - Good riddance the guy was a bust. Way overpaid and not a process guy. Thank god Beane does not overpay for guys like this. 

 

Ed Oliver is extenended for 4/$68M - Another wizard move by Beane. He makes everyone around him better and is always drawing double-teamed. Look how bad this team is when he is not on the field. 

[Warriorspikes51]

47 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

How is this possible?  Doth mine eyes deceive me?

Did he barely break the plain on the area that qualifies as pressure on 70% of those?

[buffaloboyinATL]

12 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

Ed Oliver on this board went from dud to stud with 1 post!  Amazing!

All these fans saying that Oliver is just a guy, can’t penetrate etc. are just looking at the stat sheets and not paying attention to him during games. 
 

I am an Oliver fan, so I pay attention to him during games, and he flashes elite skills on a weekly basis. He just needs to be a bit more consistent, but I can guarantee that other teams have to account for him on the field. He is a very disruptive player.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

52 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

I’m always surprised when Oliver finishes with a good pass rush grade. I don’t see it but he always does get good grades.

[Andrew Son]

2 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

All these fans saying that Oliver is just a guy, can’t penetrate etc. are just looking at the stat sheets and not paying attention to him during games. 
 

I am an Oliver fan, so I pay attention to him during games, and he flashes elite skills on a weekly basis. He just needs to be a bit more consistent, but I can guarantee that other teams have to account for him on the field. He is a very disruptive player.  

The one thing I notice about Oliver is that while he can be disruptive, he often flies into the backfield out of control and fails to finish the play.  The QB slides one way or another and Ed flies by.  Jerry Hughes used to do this a lot too, screaming off the edge out of control.  That's why his pressure rate was so good but he had a hard time finishing the plays.

 

It's great being disruptive but he needs to play with more control so he can breakdown and finish plays.