Ed Oliver big extension

[mjt328]

Initially, I was very surprised by this move.  But after thinking about, maybe it shouldn't be so surprising.

 

Brandon Beane seems to be a guy who adjusts his strategy after making a mistake.  For example, he's been quick to admit how much he regrets trading Wyatt Teller so early, instead of giving him more time to develop.  That's probably why he was slower giving up on Cody Ford and is standing fully behind Spencer Brown right now.

 

And even though Beane hasn't admitted it (yet), I think he really regrets not signing Tremaine Edmunds to an extension last year.  He decided to let Edmunds play out his contract.  Then he proceeded to have his best season yet, and priced himself totally out of our range.  Worse yet, it was a bad year for Middle Linebackers in both free agency and the draft... and now we go into the season with a big question mark in the middle of the defense.

 

Ed Oliver's situation is almost identical to Edmunds.  He's a 1st Round Pick that has shown flashes, but questionable consistency.  Many people (including myself) expected a breakout season in 2022, but were disappointed.  I think it's fair to say Oliver hasn't earned the contract extension we just gave him, but it could eventually be a bargain if he does manage to reach his potential.  

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by mjt328

[newcam2012]

19 minutes ago, eball said:

 

LOLOLOLOL

 

How people write crap like this is beyond me…

 

What's the goal? 

[SoCal Deek]

I definitely did not see this coming. I’ll chalk it up to the guys in the clubhouse knowing more than I can ever see from my sofa, but I really do NOT understand this move. I guess we’ll all see together.

 

Go Bills 

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Yes and no. If we get rid of White, you know what that automatically means.

Maybe your dream will come true and the NFL will ban corners.

 

Seriously how can even you be negative about Tre White?  There is no question he was a major initial piece in the franchise turnaround, he has been a great player and is clearly a person his teammates and everyone around him respects.  Do you really hate DBs more than you supposedly love the Bills?  
 

White had a bad injury that he was recovering from all last year.  All reports are that he is doing well but we’re all supposed to wish the worst for him now or pretend that somehow he was never a good player?  I know that is not just you and that many others have selected Tre as the next Bills villain now that Edmunds is gone.  Personally I find it sad.  “Get rid of” Tre White.  What a joke.

[Warcodered]

 

[eball]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

What's the goal? 

 

Really?  You're asking that question?  Ok, I'll pretend you're not a simpleton and answer.  The goal is to build an organization that consistently wins games, makes the playoffs, and is regularly in the conversation of competing for a championship.  Beane and McDermott have passed that test with flying colors.

 

One out of 32 teams wins a Super Bowl each year.

 

[Green Lightning]

14 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Who are we getting at DT for 15 mil a year?

Someone better than serviceable.  No need to sign him now. We signed 2 solid starting one techs for less than EO. If he could actually sack a QB without getting swallowed up by average OLs, $15 mil would be a bargain.

[gobills404]

On 6/3/2023 at 6:39 PM, Simon said:

Fun fact:

Last year there were only 5 DTs in the NFL that had more Tackles for Loss per game than Ed Oliver.

But please keep telling us how awful he is and that you never see him make any plays.

It's funny because it just shows how little you actually see. 

And Gabe Davis was 2nd in yards per reception this past year! Beane better hurry up and pay him like the top 10 WR that he is. It’s all about splash plays now anyways, consistency is overrated.

Edited June 5, 2023 by gobills404

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Someone better than serviceable.  No need to sign him now. We signed 2 solid starting one techs for less than EO. If he could actually sack a QB without getting swallowed up by average OLs, $15 mil would be a bargain.

 

If you didn't sign him now and he has a good season, he will command more.  We didn't have a single DT under contract after this year.

What does signing starting 1-techs have to do with Oliver's contract?

 

He doesn't get swallowed up by over OL's all the time.  

[Green Lightning]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If you didn't sign him now and he has a good season, he will command more.  We didn't have a single DT under contract after this year.

What does signing starting 1-techs have to do with Oliver's contract?

 

He doesn't get swallowed up by over OL's all the time.  

Conversely, a other meh year and we're stuck with him. He doesn't get swallowed up all the time, but a lot. And he doesn't get sacks. He disappears a lot. Maybe Poona and now Floyd will keep the OL off him to penetrate. We' see. I hope to be wrong about him but his body of work to date doesn't warrant the contract.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Green Lightning said:

Conversely, a other meh year and we're stuck with him. He doesn't get swallowed up all the time, but a lot. And he doesn't get sacks. He disappears a lot. Maybe Poona and now Floyd will keep the OL off him to penetrate. We' see. I hope to be wrong about him but his body of work to date doesn't warrant the contract.

 

I have had my complaints about Oliver but we aren't paying him anywhere near a top level DT.  

After this year, he will be around the 20th highest paid DT.  His contract is at the correct level IMO.

 

Every great team has a few elite players, good players, solid players, below average and bad players.

Ed is a solid player.  You can't have elite and good players at every position in a salary cap league.

[pocoboy]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

That really never entered my mind. I completely disagree and I think it was likely sacarim. 

 

 

It was mildly sardonic, but there comes a point where someone must "play the hand they've been dealt" (or dealt themselves, in this case). I think I'd characterize JA17's 2022-23 season as volatile - there were some intense highs and lows, plenty of good stuff, but a few too many times like the fumble vs Minnesota. I think it's fair to say that Josh's performance year over year is the biggest contributor to their success or failure. I guess Beane will be hoping that settling Oliver's mind about the next several years will have the opposite effect of, say, Albert Haynesworth.

[Green Lightning]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I have had my complaints about Oliver but we aren't paying him anywhere near a top level DT.  

After this year, he will be around the 20th highest paid DT.  His contract is at the correct level IMO.

 

Every great team has a few elite players, good players, solid players, below average and bad players.

Ed is a solid player.  You can't have elite and good players at every position in a salary cap league.

I don't disagree with you on that.  I just don't thing EO is worth extending. His zero tackle performance against Cincy's second string OL really cemented it for me. He gets pushed around.

[John from Riverside]

40 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Really?  You're asking that question?  Ok, I'll pretend you're not a simpleton and answer.  The goal is to build an organization that consistently wins games, makes the playoffs, and is regularly in the conversation of competing for a championship.  Beane and McDermott have passed that test with flying colors.

 

One out of 32 teams wins a Super Bowl each year.

 

Eball you got to understand

we have some fans on this for the think that it’s easy to win a championship that winning the division is just something that we do every year. We’re not sure if they were around for the decade plus of losing after the four Super Bowls.

 

We have some very entitled fans

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Green Lightning said:

I don't disagree with you on that.  I just don't thing EO is worth extending. His zero tackle performance against Cincy's second string OL really cemented it for me. He gets pushed around.

 

Our entire team played terribly that day.  Our offense couldn't move the ball.  Our defense couldn't stop anything.

We scored 10 points.

This postseason, Allen was poor.  In our two playoff games, Allen had 3 INT's and 3 fumbles.  

 

I would watch this.

 

 

[Green Lightning]

19 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Our entire team played terribly that day.  Our offense couldn't move the ball.  Our defense couldn't stop anything.

We scored 10 points.

This postseason, Allen was poor.  In our two playoff games, Allen had 3 INT's and 3 fumbles.  

 

I would watch this.

 

 

As I said. I hope to be wrong about him. Maybe Poona and a healthy Daquan will allow him to penetrate. I just would have waited to extend him. 

[The Frankish Reich]

49 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Someone better than serviceable.  No need to sign him now. We signed 2 solid starting one techs for less than EO. If he could actually sack a QB without getting swallowed up by average OLs, $15 mil would be a bargain.

Ed Oliver is better than "serviceable." In a vacuum, this contract is, of course, fair value for a DT of his solidly above-average performance and age.

I think most people here are reacting to the fact that Beane isn't constructing a team in a vacuum; he has to decide how to allocate contracts to various players playing various positions within a fairly rigid cap structure. And that's why I really have nothing bad to say about Ed Oliver - nice player, congrats on the new market-level contract - but am left scratching my head as to whether he (like Knox) was the best guy to offer an extension given other team needs. It has a little bit of the "endowment effect" look to it - the tendency to overvalue what you have and to undervalue what you could get instead.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He was top 6 in ESPN's pass rush win rate in 2021, top 6 in their run stop win rate in 2022. His total career pressures are 62, from 2,284 total snaps. That works out as a pressure around once every 37 snaps. If you compare that to his contemporaries from the 2019 First Round:

Q Williams - every 31 snaps

D Lawrence - every 36 snaps

J Simmons - every 40 snaps

C Wilkins - every 57 snaps

 

And compare it to some of the top paid (non-Aaron Donald) defensive tackles:

Chris Jones - every 18 snaps*

DeForest Buckner - every 29 snaps*

Javon Hargrave - every 38 snaps*

Daron Payne - every 46 snaps

 

* denotes calculation for those players is since 2018 when PFR began tracking pressures.

 

While I would argue that shows there is clear water between Ed and the very top level elite guys - Jones, Buckner and Q - his underlying metrics compare pretty well with other guys being paid more. Agree the bare production numbers don't, and for the deal to work out value they will have to, but there are reasons for optimism based on the data.

 

As for snap counts, over the final 8 games in 2022 Ed Oliver played an average of 70% (70.125% to be exact - no guesstimation here) of the defensive snaps. If that is the frequency of use they intend going forward I think that can justify the investment should the bare production numbers take the uptick that I agree they need to.

 

 

You see that's more like it.........providing what you think is the info that makes him worthy of $30K per snap.

 

The issue is that pressures alone don't elevate you as a pass rusher and run stop win rate when you aren't only making 30 some tackles because you aren't playing that much is limited in it's value.

 

If pressures were THAT valued then Jerry Hughes would have been seen in a much different light when he was at the top of the league in pass rush win rate and pressures but only getting 5 sacks per year.    Beane isn't spending early picks on DE's and signing Von Miller if Jerry's ifs and buts were candies and nuts.

 

The big money per snap should be reserved for closers and guys who do it while not having to be subbed out for 40% or more of the snaps.   Ed's snap counts are so incredibly low that he's basically a situational pass rusher compared to the other top producers.

 

In short.........he needs to become a very different player.........one who plays more snaps and makes more plays to justify $17M per season.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You see that's more like it.........providing what you think is the info that makes him worthy of $30K per snap.

 

The issue is that pressures alone don't elevate you as a pass rusher and run stop win rate when you aren't only making 30 some tackles because you aren't playing that much is limited in it's value.

 

If pressures were THAT valued then Jerry Hughes would have been seen in a much different light when he was at the top of the league in pass rush win rate and pressures but only getting 5 sacks per year.    Beane isn't spending early picks on DE's and signing Von Miller if Jerry's ifs and buts were candies and nuts.

 

The big money per snap should be reserved for closers and guys who do it while not having to be subbed out for 40% or more of the snaps.   Ed's snap counts are so incredibly low that he's basically a situational pass rusher compared to the other top producers.

 

In short.........he needs to become a very different player.........one who plays more snaps and makes more plays to justify $17M per season.  

One could also ask whether pressures per snap is a good way of evaluating a rotational 3tech as opposed to his peers who are playing significantly more snaps, presumably vs the run as well as passing downs

 

It seems more like a statistic for an argument than anything to me. You'd expect the guy with fewer snaps to be able to get to the QB at a higher frequency from the 3tech spot

[ColoradoBills]

14 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

That's clearly a planning thiing and that's on Beane.   That's what he gets paid the big bucks to do.  

 

 

 

Take a look at who the Chiefs have locked up at DT for next season.  You probably won't.  Too many fans are myopic about this team and

don't realize that most of the criticism they fantasize about happen to other teams all the time.