Ed Oliver big extension

[Billl]

38 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

The rumors are that it has freed up cap space this season.  Otherwise how does one explain $45M guaranteed.  It sounds like they guaranteed him more if he'd restructure and take less now.  

 

Possibly to sign Hopkins? 

I just can't fathom signing a very average DT to a $68m deal just to free up space for Hopkins.  If that's the move and Buffalo doesn't win the title this year, Beane should be gone.

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Monday's when the league office reopens, that's when we'll have more detail on Oliver's contract, but also, if this was in fact done to accommodate Hopkins, one would assume that Beane had this worked out ahead of time instead of taking such a risk in mere hopes.  I'm not a huge Beane fanboy, but surely he'd do that.  

 

 

 

Well, OK, just going by what's been reported, as in that piece posted this morning stating plainly that Beane's been interacting personally with Hopkins and that the primary reason why a deal hasn't been struck by now is because we can't fit it in. 

 

That $45M Guaranteed is perplexing.  Only Allen, Diggs, Miller, and White got more.  They're all notably better at their positions than Oliver is.  There's little argument there.  

 

He got then again nearly 70% more than Milano and Milano's twice the player at his position than Oliver is.  

 

About 50% more than Dawkins or Knox and Dawkins.  

 

 

 

 

Yes, we should get more clarity early this week on contract parameters.  

 

My prior post was in regards to the extension, and agreeing with Beane making the right decision/amount being in-line.  Nobody will know that fate for a few years, not Monday or Tuesday this week.

 

I'm not perplexed by the $45m guaranteed.  It's better to directly assess comparables (ie: other top paid DT contracts), as opposed to our own players at various positions. 

 

IMO, Ed is slotted just where he should be, between top 10-15 AAV.  He's a disruptive player and key to our success up front/core player.  He needs to stay healthy, but we can say that about all NFL high paid contracts. 

 

Some want to debate our "rotational scheme", and if this contract aligns with value.  I'd counter by saying we have yet to see what McD plans to do with Ed.  We can certainly use him more, as he's our best 3-tech DT by far.   

 

Alternatively if we didnt have Ed past his year, we would be looking to use a high draft pick OR comparable/possibly more $$$$s on the FA market to attract a player.  No guarantees on either front.

 

So, again I think Beane made another solid decision to keep a known/very good player long term. Even if the price might be $1-2m per season high, that's not worth quibbling over.

[PBF81]

22 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I'm not perplexed by the $45m guaranteed.  It's better to directly assess comparables (ie: other top paid DT contracts), as opposed to our own players at various positions. 

 

Whether you're perplexed or not it's a lot more than it typically would be for a player of Oliver's caliber.  

 

It signals that something else is up.  That's all I'm saying.  

 

I also don't think that the Hopkins thing is a reach in the least.  I'm not for it depending upon what we give up to sign him if it happens, but the fact that Beane's been recently talking to Hopkins personally, I'm pretty sure that it wasn't to plan out their extended family picnic.   

 

 

[balln]

23 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Yes, we should get more clarity early this week on contract parameters.  

 

My prior post was in regards to the extension, and agreeing with Beane making the right decision/amount being in-line.  Nobody will know that fate for a few years, not Monday or Tuesday this week.

 

I'm not perplexed by the $45m guaranteed.  It's better to directly assess comparables (ie: other top paid DT contracts), as opposed to our own players at various positions. 

 

IMO, Ed is slotted just where he should be, between top 10-15 AAV.  He's a disruptive player and key to our success up front/core player.  He needs to stay healthy, but we can say that about all NFL high paid contracts. 

 

Some want to debate our "rotational scheme", and if this contract aligns with value.  I'd counter by saying we have yet to see what McD plans to do with Ed.  We can certainly use him more, as he's our best 3-tech DT by far.   

 

Alternatively if we didnt have Ed past his year, we would be looking to use a high draft pick OR comparable/possibly more $$$$s on the FA market to attract a player.  No guarantees on either front.

 

So, again I think Beane made another solid decision to keep a known/very good player long term. Even if the price might be $1-2m per season high, that's not worth quibbling over.

What. No. He’s not disruptive. Very inconsistently as pass rusher. He’s awful against the run. He gets pushed into the LBers too often. 
 

he doesn’t play the snaps the top DTs do. 
 

utterly baffling contract - just an expensive gamble by beane 

 

 

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, Airseven said:

Pro Bowl is sort of like winning a Grammy these days - entirely meaningless.

 

All Pro is still a worthy recognition.

We have a few. Most have had injuries the last cpl years - Von,Poyer,Hyde,Tre 

Also Josh,Diggs,Milano.. this team is sooooo close 

[buffaloboyinATL]

15 minutes ago, balln said:

What. No. He’s not disruptive. Very inconsistently as pass rusher. He’s awful against the run. He gets pushed into the LBers too often. 
 

he doesn’t play the snaps the top DTs do. 
 

utterly baffling contract - just an expensive gamble by beane 

 

 

Yes, he is disruptive, which is why he is often double teamed. He is also not being paid like the top DT’s. This is a slightly above average contract, which will look even better once the next wave of DT’s are signed. 
 

I am perplexed as to why so many fans are (IMO) over-reacting to this contract. It is fair market value at worst, and potentially a bargain long term. 
 

 

[Dr. Who]

43 minutes ago, Billl said:

I just can't fathom signing a very average DT to a $68m deal just to free up space for Hopkins.  If that's the move and Buffalo doesn't win the title this year, Beane should be gone.

I think Ed Oliver is better than very average, though he'll have to improve to merit the contract. I doubt this move is directly tied to finding cap space to sign Hopkins, but I don't think the fan base would blame Beane if he takes a shot and it fails. Also, I suspect Beane and McDermott need to see much better post-season success in the next year or two or they may well be out regardless, so too much caution could backfire as well.  

[LABILLBACKER]

23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I like Ed Oliver.   He's been a solid, physical DT with the talent to maybe become a star pass rusher.  I liked the pick at the time and I've often defended him to people who claim he's just average.  

 

I was really looking forward to him playing for a contract because he's proven that he can be very impactful when he's really motivated.    To me,  he is the perfect example of a walk year wonder in waiting.   I was EXPECTING something like a 10 sack season.   I think Ed has some complacency in his nature and needed a walk year  with huge consequences to learn what he is really capable of and raise his own expectations for his level of play.

 

I really don't think this is a Milano situation where a player was fine with taking a hometown discount and was already on a natural trajectory to hit his ceiling as a player.   I hope that's not the case and that Ed keeps trying to raise his game physically AND mentally(as Eric Washington was imploring).

What's absurd is that 570 snap count.  How can he ever have an impact at such a low snap count?

[PBF81]

25 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I am perplexed as to why so many fans are (IMO) over-reacting to this contract. It is fair market value at worst, and potentially a bargain long term. 

 

It's the guaranteed money.  The perspective on that is mindboggling.  Maybe not the overall contract value, again, if he continues to improve, but that $45M in Guaranteed is huge for him and what he brings.  It's also going to set a standard on the team, at least to some extent.  

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

This video made me feel much better about Oliver.  He’s paid like a solid DT which is where he’s at.  I would be upset if he was paid in the top echelon of DT’s but he’s not.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

What's absurd is that 570 snap count.  How can he ever have an impact at such a low snap count?

 

He would have to become extremely efficient.

 

Maybe he will..........but expecting a huge jump in production after 4 years of being what he has been when you have already given the guy his "career" contract is very risky.

[buffaloboyinATL]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

It's the guaranteed money.  The perspective on that is mindboggling.  Maybe not the overall contract value, again, if he continues to improve, but that $45M in Guaranteed is huge for him and what he brings.  It's also going to set a standard on the team, at least to some extent.  

 

 

Maybe, but more likely, it will impact upcoming DT contracts throughout the league.  I hope it makes the Jets contract with Quinnen Williams harder to swallow.  

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Maybe, but more likely, it will impact upcoming DT contracts throughout the league.  I hope it makes the Jets contract with Quinnen Williams harder to swallow.  

 

Well, ping me when you see a second tier DT getting anywhere near that $45M in Guaranteed money.  I don't see anyone of his caliber or near it even getting $35M guaranteed.  

 

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, ping me when you see a second tier DT getting anywhere near that $45M in Guaranteed money.  I don't see anyone of his caliber or near it even getting $35M guaranteed.  

 

 

Will do.  (I am guessing  the next wave of DT contracts will reflect this type of guarantee) 

[Dablitzkrieg]

On 6/3/2023 at 5:24 PM, Virgil said:

I’m going to reserve judgement until I see the full details.  Initially, I’d rather have kept Edmunds, which says a lot for me.  
 

For Oliver, I’m tired of the injuries and excuses.  But in Beane I trust 

He's missed only 3 games in 4 years.  People like yourself should do more research and not make things up to push an agenda

[Mike in Horseheads]

My two cents is Ed signed a middle of the pack contract to stay in Buffalo. He's worth more on the open market as a FA IMO. I realize I'm in the minority on this.

[Sierra Foothills]

On 6/3/2023 at 5:16 PM, NC-billsfan! said:

But I wanted Oliver to play out his last year motivated and hungry. I just think he’s motivated by money. 

 

On 6/3/2023 at 6:09 PM, BillsShredder83 said:

This is the part that somehow is even worse than the $17m aav

Thought he'd have a monster year for sure.... i sincerely don't see that happening now

 

23 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I think most were happy to see him play on the last year of his deal hoping he would really ball out.  Now he is an overpaid injury prone undersized DT that we hope can live up to they hype coming out college. 

 

Hmmm, all this talk about making Oliver earn the new contract.

 

Minimally this casts aspersions on Oliver's character (some made comparisons to Dareus and Haynesworth... nice touch) as well as the judgement of McBeane.

 

Isn't it more likely that the Bills know what makes Oliver tick and feel very comfortable extending him now? Don't you think they are comfortable with his motivation going forward?

 

On 6/3/2023 at 5:26 PM, PBF81 said:

In the varying forums however, this move is taking more of a beating than getting support.  

 

I think you might be confusing the vocal minority (and the silent majority) with the actual consensus.

 

13 hours ago, McBean said:

I hate this signing so much that I don’t even know where to begin.

 

Go watch Chris Jones or big Jeff Simmons play, then go watch Oliver.

 

Guy is so average it hurts.

 

What an absolute horrible move by Brandon Beane my god.

 

Heresy McBeane! You must stop with the self-immolation!

 

 

[Virgil]

43 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

He's missed only 3 games in 4 years.  People like yourself should do more research and not make things up to push an agenda

Who said anything about missing games?  
 

There’s plenty of info out there that says he played hurt, which affected his performance and why we haven’t seen his true potential consistently 

[billsfan89]

59 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

My two cents is Ed signed a middle of the pack contract to stay in Buffalo. He's worth more on the open market as a FA IMO. I realize I'm in the minority on this.

 

If Oliver had a season similar to 2022 in 2023 he probably would have gotten a similar contract on the open market maybe even a bit more. If he had a great season he could have gotten a lot more. But that's risking injury and taking good money that's guaranteed is the smart move. 

 

I am curious as to what the cap savings are for this season? Oliver's cap number was close to 11 million on the option, how much money does the new deal free up?

[PBF81]

50 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Isn't it more likely that the Bills know what makes Oliver tick and feel very comfortable extending him now? Don't you think they are comfortable with his motivation going forward?

 

Since you pinged me in your reply, perhaps, but what's the standard for them knowing this? 

 

McD choosing Peterman to play QB over Allen initially stating he was a very good QB?  

 

Or bringing guys like Kelvin Benjamin, Lotulelei, Mario Addison, Vernon Butler, Daryl Williams, Andre Smith, and Efe Obada all here from McD's familiarity with them at Carolina knowing what motivated them?   Some of those not so inexpensively either.  

 

Which do you think is more likely?   Since you brought it up that is.  

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by PBF81