Ed Oliver big extension

[Airseven]

46 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Right. The second best winning percentage in the league over the last three seasons, .723 to KC’s .788, is a joke. 

So what? They stat pad against bad teams. And then get eliminated in embarrassing fashion when it truly counts.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, PrimeTime101 said:

yep and at that point either way, this whole conversation will be mute. People in Olivers range will be paid more because Oliver was last to set market at his range. OR Oliver turns out to be better and less injuries. this could seriously go either way. But I look at it cup half full 

I was being facetious

 

And I agree 100% that second contracts like this  to guys like Oliver is definitely a  glass half full move but at the end of the day you're still drinking water watching the other guys pouring out champagne 

[PrimeTime101]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I was being facetious

 

And I agree 100% that second contracts like this  to guys like Oliver is definitely a  glass half full move but at the end of the day you're still drinking water watching the other guys pouring out champagne 

I do not understand the gloom and doom of the Bills current roster situation, But everyone has the right to have an opinion so yea. it is what it is. 

[Maine-iac]

We had no one signed after this season.  We weren't going to sign someone better for less.  We weren't going to sign someone as good for less.  We weren't going to draft someone who was going to come in and play better from day one as a rookie.  Given what Hargreaves and Tomlinson got paid Oliver is right in line.  Funny sportrac statistics has Oliver's snap % listed higher than Hargreaves.  I'm not going back to look but I swear someone was arguing a DT needed to play 70 percent of the snaps

[PBF81]

14 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I do not understand the gloom and doom of the Bills current roster situation, But everyone has the right to have an opinion so yea. it is what it is. 

 

I wouldn't classify it as doom and gloom, but rather questioning what they're doing and why.  For example, there's little argument that this Oliver signing, since that's the thread we're in, has risk associated with it.  Namely, whether Oliver improves his play or he doesn't.  Whether he continues to get injured now that he's had a significant injury, also asking why he was injured since he seemingly stepped it up, but perhaps doing so against bigger and stronger competition was part of the reason he was injured.  And for a guy that's typically only played 60% of the snaps in a rotation whereas at least one person has pointed out that DTs that make that kind of money typically don't play just over half the snaps.  

Not to argue, just to add some perspective.  

 

Von Miller's post-injury return, for that reason but also because he's 34 this season, are hardly inconsequential issues and he's getting paid quite a bit.  White too, will he become what he was, or something in between last season and what he was?  And of course our MLB issue and even our other OLB issue.  Defensively, that on top of the fact that we didn't play well after Miller went out, and let's face it, the competition in those games wasn't stiff.  Jones twice, Thompson, Fields, and White.  

 

Then of course our playoff performance on both sides.  I can see how people would be suspect for what's to come this season.  I know that I am, as I've stated, I don't see us finishing in the top-10 in defense this season.  I can even see us finishing in the 15-20 range.  

 

Offensively people are still skeptical of our WR situation.  The OL hasn't proven itself yet, Morse is a year older, McGovern and Torrence are both hopefuls but until ..., and we're really counting on Brown to take that next step towards serious improvement.  

 

A rookie TE only offers so much hope, and our RBs are a solid but hardly stellar BTTs guy and a utility RB.  

 

Then there's Dorsey.  Are there going to be more tantrums from him throwing tablets, or are he and Allen going to be in sync and is he going to balance Allen out with some more rushing.  

 

That's a lot of stuff to process and come out thinking that we're definitely winning the division and heading for the AFC CG.  That's without even discussing our playoff performances or a schedule featuring a slate of offenses the likes of which McD has never faced, either here or in Carolina.  

 

As with all, time will tell.  

 

Having said all of that, I think that a lot of the concern here is for the future, not so much for this season, and in the manner of the cap.  We have several older players and average players with significant contracts.  

 

As I've said, are we looking for bargain contracts, or performance from those that we have under contract to the extent that we can win it all while Allen's here.  

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by PBF81

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

Didn't Saffold make the Pro Bowl ?

Exactly my point…and Oliver still couldn’t do it…

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

I wouldn't classify it as doom and gloom, but rather questioning what they're doing and why.  For example, there's little argument that this Oliver signing, since that's the thread we're in, has risk associated with it.  Namely, whether Oliver improves his play or he doesn't.  Whether he continues to get injured now that he's had a significant injury, also asking why he was injured since he seemingly stepped it up, but perhaps doing so against bigger and stronger competition was part of the reason he was injured.  And for a guy that's typically only played 60% of the snaps in a rotation whereas at least one person has pointed out that DTs that make that kind of money typically don't play just over half the snaps.  

Not to argue, just to add some perspective.  

 

Von Miller's post-injury return, for that reason but also because he's 34 this season, are hardly inconsequential issues and he's getting paid quite a bit.  White too, will he become what he was, or something in between last season and what he was?  And of course our MLB issue and even our other OLB issue.  Defensively, that on top of the fact that we didn't play well after Miller went out, and let's face it, the competition in those games wasn't stiff.  Jones twice, Thompson, Fields, and White.  

 

Then of course our playoff performance on both sides.  I can see how people would be suspect for what's to come this season.  I know that I am, as I've stated, I don't see us finishing in the top-10 in defense this season.  I can even see us finishing in the 15-20 range.  

 

Offensively people are still skeptical of our WR situation.  The OL hasn't proven itself yet, Morse is a year older, McGovern and Torrence are both hopefuls but until ..., and we're really counting on Brown to take that next step towards serious improvement.  

 

A rookie TE only offers so much hope, and our RBs are a solid but hardly stellar BTTs guy and a utility RB.  

 

Then there's Dorsey.  Are there going to be more tantrums from him throwing tablets, or are he and Allen going to be in sync and is he going to balance Allen out with some more rushing.  

 

That's a lot of stuff to process and come out thinking that we're definitely winning the division and heading for the AFC CG.  That's without even discussing our playoff performances or a schedule featuring a slate of offenses the likes of which McD has never faced, either here or in Carolina.  

 

As with all, time will tell.  

 

 

 

 

Simply put.. to much cup half empty additude. 

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

We had no one signed after this season.  We weren't going to sign someone better for less.  We weren't going to sign someone as good for less.  We weren't going to draft someone who was going to come in and play better from day one as a rookie.  Given what Hargreaves and Tomlinson got paid Oliver is right in line.  Funny sportrac statistics has Oliver's snap % listed higher than Hargreaves.  I'm not going back to look but I swear someone was arguing a DT needed to play 70 percent of the snaps

 

That's clearly a planning thiing and that's on Beane.   That's what he gets paid the big bucks to do.  

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

32 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Oliver or no Oliver, the Bills are the second best team over the last three years. No matter how you slice it, that is not a joke as has been alleged. 

 

Not in the playoffs they're not.  

 

 

[Airseven]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

That's clearly a planning thiing and that's on Beane.   That's what he gets paid the big bucks to do.  

 

 

He’s compensating for past mistakes along the DL by now overpaying. That can be a dangerous snowball effect for a team in cap jail.

[BigAl2526]

Well, as an extension, the new deal kicks in after the 2023 season.  In any case, the Bills obviously have a higher opinion of Oliver than lots of fans.  Judging from the comments of the defensive line coach the other day, Oliver's need for grown is mostly in the mental aspect of the game, anticipation and decision making.  Obviously, the Bills think he can make the jump in production.

 

[Airseven]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

Didn't Saffold make the Pro Bowl ?

Pro Bowl is sort of like winning a Grammy these days - entirely meaningless.

 

All Pro is still a worthy recognition.

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Simply put.. to much cup half empty additude. 

 

Maybe, I know that I'm optimistic about the play of the offense this season.  As I've said, I can see our offense being the best that the franchise has ever had.  

 

But if Dorsey cannot run it effectively that's not going to happen.  Trying to guess what's going to happen there is anyone's guess.  

 

Otherwise, there are plenty of reasons for concern that we're all aware of.  The results of the season will answer quite a few questions IMHO.  I have a hunch that the discussions here 6 months from now or in January are going to be a whole lot different than they now are.  Again, we'll see.  Nothing to lose one's mind over.  LOL  

 

 

4 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

Well, as an extension, the new deal kicks in after the 2023 season. 

 

The rumors are that it has freed up cap space this season.  Otherwise how does one explain $45M guaranteed.  It sounds like they guaranteed him more if he'd restructure and take less now.  

 

Possibly to sign Hopkins?  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Isn't Hargreaves getting over 21 mil per season and over 80 mil for the life of the deal?  Oliver's deal (according to ESPN) works out to 15.75 mil per season.  It seems like they are getting paid accordingly.

 

Yeah the point is that they are being paid almost exactly the same.......$30,000 per snap played.

 

Hargrave played 715 snaps per season in Philly in his breakout seasons the past two years that got him that big contract.........and totaled 18.5 sacks and 123 tackles.

 

Ed's leadup to earning the same pay per play?   Just able to play 575 snaps per season and accumulated only 6.5 sacks and 75 tackles.

 

To put the snap counts in perspective.........Aaron Donald played 1,055 regular season snaps in 2021 when he earned his massive extension.

 

Christian Wilkins for the Dolphins played 955 snaps.

 

 Ed's career average of 570 snaps per season is absurdly low for a perceived frontline starting DT.      

 

What that means is you really need some QUALITY depth at DT3T to play 40% plus of the snaps when Ed is only able to post an average of just under 56% of the snaps.    

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

the biggest indicator of future performance is past performance.  I suspect that if you lined up all the fourth year veterans at every position, and ranked their most recent two years purely on production, and then four years later reranked them based on the second four years production, that except for injuries, there would be very little reranking.  Hoping players are going to improve at a faster rate than there peers is not really a strategy, 

My point is that Beane has been quite good at hitting on his extension decicions, to-datw.  None of us are sitting in Beanes shoes, and know the ins and outs of what they think of Ed.

 

So until proven otherwise, I'm trusting Beane and team made the right call on this.  Can revisit in a few years and see if he's right.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Right lol talk about damning w faint praise

 

'This is a good deal because better players are going to get more than him' is not the best defense of roster management 😂😂

There is some validity to this. Look at Allen for a good example. 

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

So until proven otherwise, I'm trusting Beane and team made the right call on this.  Can revisit in a few years and see if he's right.

 

We'll find out tomorrow or Tuesday, but I'm really starting to think that this move was made to reduce the cap hit to be able to squeeze Hopkins in.  

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

We'll find out tomorrow or Tuesday, but I'm really starting to think that this move was made to reduce the cap hit to be able to squeeze Hopkins in.  

 

 

Please tell, how will we find out Monday or Tuesday, that this is a good deal for us?

 

I doubt this has anything to do with Dhop.  We're not extending a player for 4 years just to fit someone else under the cap....we don't even know yet how much Ed's 2023 cap hit changed by.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Can you list any players on the Bills other than Allen that you think have value?

 

 

I like Ed Oliver.   He's been a solid, physical DT with the talent to maybe become a star pass rusher.  I liked the pick at the time and I've often defended him to people who claim he's just average.  

 

I was really looking forward to him playing for a contract because he's proven that he can be very impactful when he's really motivated.    To me,  he is the perfect example of a walk year wonder in waiting.   I was EXPECTING something like a 10 sack season.   I think Ed has some complacency in his nature and needed a walk year  with huge consequences to learn what he is really capable of and raise his own expectations for his level of play.

 

I really don't think this is a Milano situation where a player was fine with taking a hometown discount and was already on a natural trajectory to hit his ceiling as a player.   I hope that's not the case and that Ed keeps trying to raise his game physically AND mentally(as Eric Washington was imploring).

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Please tell, how will we find out Monday or Tuesday, that this is a good deal for us?

 

Monday's when the league office reopens, that's when we'll have more detail on Oliver's contract, but also, if this was in fact done to accommodate Hopkins, one would assume that Beane had this worked out ahead of time instead of taking such a risk in mere hopes.  I'm not a huge Beane fanboy, but surely he'd do that.  

 

 

13 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I doubt this has anything to do with Dhop.  We're not extending a player for 4 years just to fit someone else under the cap....we don't even know yet how much Ed's 2023 cap hit changed by.

 

Well, OK, just going by what's been reported, as in that piece posted this morning stating plainly that Beane's been interacting personally with Hopkins and that the primary reason why a deal hasn't been struck by now is because we can't fit it in. 

 

That $45M Guaranteed is perplexing.  Only Allen, Diggs, Miller, and White got more, and Allen and Miller were on 6 year deals.  Miller got only a few million more for two more years.  They're all notably better at their positions than Oliver is.  There's little argument there.  

 

He got then again nearly 70% more than Milano and Milano's twice the player at his position than Oliver is.  

 

About 50% more than Dawkins or Knox.  

 

 

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by PBF81