Ed Oliver big extension

[Dr. Who]

24 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

To the extent it adds to the discussion, they could’ve kept Harrison Phillips for about half of this in terms of AAV.  Slightly different players but perhaps a better allocation of resources given the substantial investment on the d line.  And I’m saying that as a big Oliver fan.

Some fellas focus on the balcony, some on gams. These fellas are Dline enthusiasts.

[Dave_Bills]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What is your definition of production?  I think Oliver was a better investment than Edmunds would have been and I liked Edmunds.

 

I am not defending the contract as I don’t pay that much attention because positional value changes quickly, but I think Oliver has been disruptive on several occasions.  

The contract was precisely what I had the issue with. I like Ed and I think he’s a solid player but it’s all about opportunity cost and where else that money could go.

 

In a vacuum I think Ed is good but it’s about allocation of resources.

 

I’m also not saying it was necessarily a wrong decision, just that it is a gamble. I am hoping it pays off. 
 

when I see that kind of money though I am looking for more impact. I don’t see his production as a commensurate with the contract. I think a lot of this is based on health. If Ed can be healthy the contract could prove a good one. He is however undersized for the position and has been injured fairly regularly

[billsfan89]

Definitely a B+ contract for a B- player in my opinion. Oliver is an above-average starting caliber DT but not a dynamic difference-maker either. And the Bills are going to be paying him like a player that needs to be more of a difference-maker. Can Ed develop into that? He certainly at age 25 is young enough and players at his position can be late bloomers. But after 4 seasons I would have expected Ed to have that breakout. 

 

2019 Oliver was a rookie and he played like a starter which is a solid rookie season

2020 Oliver played like an above-average starter, he was a bit out of place due to not having a true NT on the roster but he played well despite the circumstances.

2021 Oliver stagnated, having a true NT in Star didn't do much and Oliver just couldn't keep it going and take that next step

2022 Oliver stagnated, coming towards the end of a rookie deal and a better NT next to him we all expected 2022 to finally be that year he took a massive step up. But an early injury got him off to a bad start and things just never got better. He played like he had for the most part, above average but not great. 

 

Going into 2023 a true contract year I was hoping the Bills would get an Edumonds like year out of him, seeing the big money he just shows out. I think as much as the Bills want to keep Oliver in the fold hoping for some boost in production they also like getting some short term cap relief. 

 

Don't hate the contract given the added bonus of cap relief, but it is definitely speculative and in order for it to pan out they are going to have to see Oliver take a step up in his current levels of production. 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Dave_Bills said:

The contract was precisely what I had the issue with. I like Ed and I think he’s a solid player but it’s all about opportunity cost and where else that money could go.

 

In a vacuum I think Ed is good but it’s about allocation of resources.

 

I’m also not saying it was necessarily a wrong decision, just that it is a gamble. I am hoping it pays off. 
 

when I see that kind of money though I am looking for more impact. I don’t see his production as a commensurate with the contract. I think a lot of this is based on health. If Ed can be healthy the contract could prove a good one. He is however undersized for the position and has been injured fairly regularly

But it's not really an extravagant contract for the position and shortly it will be even more modest in terms of where it ranks league wide.

[newcam2012]

 

I think Gabe's stats are largely inflated by having Allen as his QB. I think he's an average WR2 at best and more suitably a WR3.

 

Gabe has a limited route tree due to lack of fluid hip movement and explosiveness. Thus, he needs time to get open and the short passing game is non existent. Additionally, his contested rate catch is below average. 

 

In short, I feel it's not ideal to have Gabe as the Bills WR2. Allen will make any WR better and that's the case here.

 

The Bills management and coaching staff has to prioritize positions of need accordingly. Imho, there were far more pressing needs than WR2. Thus, Davis by default remains the WR2. I'm not anywhere sold that a rookie TE will take over his role anytime soon. Nor do I think any of the WR additions are WR2 worthy. Hopefully, they are solid pieces that can contribute. 

 

Gabe was hurt early on in the season. The latter part of the season he appeared relatively healthy. My eyes saw a WR2 that underpreformed, lacked separation, and didn't make many contested catches. I found myself frustrated with Gabe more often than not. Granted, he made some nice third down conversations and a few timely TDs. I'd argue with confidence that was mostly due to the greatness of Allen. Perhaps, I'm not giving Gabe enough credit?

 

In short, the Bills had little choice but to roll the dice with Gabe. Beane knew it and talked him up in his season ending presser. Roster construction and cap issues just didn't allow for a major upgrade of the WR2. 

 

The Bills can do worse than Gabe. By all accounts he's a hard worker and that is certainly an attribute Bills fans can relate too. His KC playoff game lingers with ecstasy in many of our minds. It's hard not to like Gabe and root for him. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by newcam2012

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't fully accept your analysis, but perhaps I should have bolded the part where I said I don't expect Beane to sign him.

 

Yeah, I saw it, and no doubt that have a different take on the receiving situation.   I was merely talking what-if.  We'll find out tomorrow.  I mean it's kinda weird this Oliver extension out of nowhere.  

 

Did you read the piece that I posted that stated that Beane has admitted to speaking to Hopkins directly, and that stated that the reason why we possibly hadn't gotten a deal done was due to a lack of cap space?   I mean that's pretty revealing.  

 

I'm merely putting two and two together combined with the fact that Oliver got $45M guaranteed, which is a lot given the circumstances, and also combined with the rumors that this has opened up cap space for us.  Why the urgency all other things being equal.  

 

We'll find out tomorrow once the league office opens and the contract details are formally released, and if that was the reason, I expect that we'll hear about Hopkins signing with us by Tuesday.  

 

I obviously don't know anymore than anyone else, just trying to make sense of an otherwise odd situation.  

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Some news outlets have it ranked at 15th or 16th highest with the 8th most guaranteed money. With the way that the cap and salaries are escalating, this contract will look like a bargain in a couple of years.  Frazier frequently had the guy playing two gap which was a complete misuse of his skill set (probably one of several reasons that Frazier is gone).  I'll be interested to see if McD actually uses his speed and quickness to disrupt the offense.

 

 

I quoted the AAV, as it takes all the cap shenanigans and neutralizes them.  He's #11.  And there's really no reason that McD would squander a player's spin and quickness just because he didn't to upset his DC.  We've covered this...

 

I guess the best thing we can say is that, in several years, when better players get much more than Oliver, this will look like a steal!!

[Dave_Bills]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

But it's not really an extravagant contract for the position and shortly it will be even more modest in terms of where it ranks league wide.

That’s fair. Like I said, I’m a fan of Ed. If he can remain healthy they contract will be a good one 

[Chaos]

20 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Any contract extension is a bit of past production (to warrant the deal) and some prediction of future play

the biggest indicator of future performance is past performance.  I suspect that if you lined up all the fourth year veterans at every position, and ranked their most recent two years purely on production, and then four years later reranked them based on the second four years production, that except for injuries, there would be very little reranking.  Hoping players are going to improve at a faster rate than there peers is not really a strategy, 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I quoted the AAV, as it takes all the cap shenanigans and neutralizes them.  He's #11.  And there's really no reason that McD would squander a player's spin and quickness just because he didn't to upset his DC.  We've covered this...

 

I guess the best thing we can say is that, in several years, when better players get much more than Oliver, this will look like a steal!!

Right lol talk about damning w faint praise

 

'This is a good deal because better players are going to get more than him' is not the best defense of roster management 😂😂

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Right lol talk about damning w faint praise

 

'This is a good deal because better players are going to get more than him' is not the best defense of roster management 😂😂

 

It's the dominant argument being put forward on this thread...

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Right lol talk about damning w faint praise

 

'This is a good deal because better players are going to get more than him' is not the best defense of roster management 😂😂

Wrong sir. IT is a good deal because Other players at his same Calibur are going to get paid more... making it a better deal next year. We can not have all stars at every position mate. There is a word that goes around the NFL. It is called Servable. Oliver is better than Servable. 

[K-9]

37 minutes ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

This franchise is a joke. Ed “The Ghost” Oliver for 68 million. On its face, it’s a panic move. 

Right. The second best winning percentage in the league over the last three seasons, .723 to KC’s .788, is a joke. 

[Chaos]

Just now, Dave_Bills said:

That’s fair. Like I said, I’m a fan of Ed. If he can remain healthy they contract will be a good one 

How many DT's are on NFL Roster? Do you really think Oliver is currently the 11th best? This isn't like QBs where each team has 1.  Most teams (particularly the Bills rotate multiple DTs).  Oliver did not even rank in the top 32, in snaps played in 2022. PFF ranked Oliver 43 best interior lineman in 2023.  Not that PFF is the begin all and end all of player evaluations, but they do get paid a lot of money by NFL teams for their analysis, so it is not like it totally make believe either.  This extension is based on Beane and McDermott being smarter than everyone else when grading interior linemen in the NFL. 

[Dr. Who]

16 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I saw it, and no doubt that have a different take on the receiving situation.   I was merely talking what-if.  We'll find out tomorrow.  I mean it's kinda weird this Oliver extension out of nowhere.  

 

Did you read the piece that I posted that stated that Beane has admitted to speaking to Hopkins directly, and that stated that the reason why we possibly hadn't gotten a deal done was due to a lack of cap space?   I mean that's pretty revealing.  

 

I'm merely putting two and two together combined with the fact that Oliver got $45M guaranteed, which is a lot given the circumstances, and also combined with the rumors that this has opened up cap space for us.  Why the urgency all other things being equal.  

 

We'll find out tomorrow once the league office opens and the contract details are formally released, and if that was the reason, I expect that we'll hear about Hopkins signing with us by Tuesday.  

 

I obviously don't know anymore than anyone else, just trying to make sense of an otherwise odd situation.  

 

 

This is like fan fiction for my pal @Warriorspikes51. I doubt any cap savings by extending Oliver is sufficient to match Hopkins' contract wishes which I surmise are currently inflated above where the league values him.

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Wrong sir. IT is a good deal because Other players at his same Calibur are going to get paid more... making it a better deal next year. We can not have all stars at every position mate. There is a word that goes around the NFL. It is called Servable. Oliver is better than Servable. 

do you mean "serviceable" or are we taking Ed to Wimbledon. 

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

do you mean "serviceable" or are we taking Ed to Wimbledon. 

Big tennis fan here. I think he’s actually talking about a catering event? 🤷‍♂️

 

(Can we trust the seafood?) 

 

 

.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Augie

[Green Lightning]

3 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Wrong sir. IT is a good deal because Other players at his same Calibur are going to get paid more... making it a better deal next year. We can not have all stars at every position mate. There is a word that goes around the NFL. It is called Servable. Oliver is better than Servable. 

Spelling aside, I think striving for "serviceable" is not the way to win a championship. We need to drop that kind of coin on a higher "caliber" player.

[The Wiz]

6 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

When do these analytical stats translate to sacks & TFL's?  Over a 4 year span Ed averages 3.6 sacks and 7.5 TFL.  

Now do Edmunds average since most would have preferred to sign him instead.

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

This is like fan fiction for my pal @Warriorspikes51. I doubt any cap savings by extending Oliver is sufficient to match Hopkins' contract wishes which I surmise are currently inflated above where the league values him.

 

Well, I guess we'll find out.  I think you'd find the other two articles that I linked somewhere above, probably in the last page or two, very interesting on that point.  They may change your take there.  

 

One was by SI the other by TSN as I recall.