Ed Oliver big extension

[JaCrispy]

33 minutes ago, finn said:

B+ contract for a B+ player. 

B+ contract for a C+ player …imo

 

At this point in his career Oliver has not proven to be anything other than a JAG…sorry

 

To me, B+ player means pro bowl- and that is certainly not Oliver…

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by JaCrispy

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Not arguing about this. I’m just speaking about the injury prone-ness issue.

 

 

I said he's HURT a lot.   Not INJURED a lot.  

 

I don't think you are intending to create a straw man argument.........but you are. 

 

Hurt and injured are different things.

 

Ed is hurt a lot and when he has those hurts he disappears........and either of two things happen........excuses are made by observers/fans OR he gets knocked by them for not producing. 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

B+ contract for a C+ player …imo

 

At this point in his career Oliver has not proven to be anything other than a JAG…sorry

 

To me, B+ player means pro bowl- and that is certainly not Oliver…

 

 

He's better than that imo, he flashes

 

I just think he's the perfect kind of guy to get one last good year out of and draft his replacement. He doesn't have any pro traits that necessitate using a high pick...handing those kind of guys second deals is a mistake to me

[4merper4mer]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I said he's HURT a lot.   Not INJURED a lot.  

 

I don't think you are intending to create a straw man argument.........but you are. 

 

Hurt and injured are different things.

 

Ed is hurt a lot and when he has those hurts he disappears........and either of two things happen........excuses are made by observers/fans OR he gets knocked by them for not producing. 

Can you list any players on the Bills other than Allen that you think have value?

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He will have to up his bare production numbers. I agree. But there are lots of reasons to believe he will be able to do that because the underlying analytics - his pass rush win rate, his run stop win rate, his double team defeat rate are good. I think he is and has been a better player than the bare production numbers would lead you to believe. If that doesn't change during this deal, then it will have been an overpay. But if it does the Bills could well have a bargain.

 

I don't think his underlying analytics are that good.........but it's easy to just SAY they are and not back it up.........which you sorta' did when vaguely claiming he is now a 70% snap guy(even if that is a low bar as well).

 

It stands to reason that a guy who plays just over half of the snaps will be fresher and should be more productive on a per-play basis...........but he's not comparable to $20M types even on a per-snap basis even though those guys are doing a lot more heavy lifting.

 

Yeah.......he does need to up his counting stats but he also needs to be better on a per play basis and play a higher % of snaps.    The same argument could be made about Gabriel Davis and I guess there would be a lot of reasons to believe he will become a WR1..........I guess then it's very  for his agent to ask for 80% of a top 11 WR contract?

 

[PBF81]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

I understand you rate Davis higher, that is my view. You're not alone, but I just disagree. I think if he has a superlative year Davis ends up on another team paying him big bucks. If he is inconsistent, he might be back on a team friendly contract. Fans notice key drops. They don't notice the trenches unless someone is just awful like Saffold and even then, it's not the same. 

 

Yeah, I realize that you disagree.  these discussions wouldn't be much fun if everyone agreed with everyone else.  LOL  I was simply providing some basis for why I'm actually pretty bullish on Davis.  I will also say, he's one of the better playoff performers.  In fact, he's the only one that has single-handely won a playoff game for us in our last five playoff games, the one against KC the "13 Seconds" game.  Even Diggs doesn't have that distinction.  Had Davis not gone off in that game it likely would have ended more like the season prior in 2020.  

 

I'm very curious to see him play injury-free as well.  

 

I also don't understand this overemphasis on Hopkins.  Hopkins will be 31 this season, has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons and clearly hasn't been the same player since, but for all the talk about character on this team, he was also suspended last season for substance abuse.  And if we were to sign him after this Oliver signing, that would definitely be a sign of a "win now" scenario, but it would also question what they'd do with their trade-up 1st-Round pick Kincaid since both seem to fill a similar role.  

 

Davis still has ceiling at least, Hopkins has little if any.  If we sign Hopkins and win it all, fantastic.  But if we sign Hopkins and don't, ...  If we do, hopefully it's a performance-driven contract.  He's already said he'd like to play with Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, Herbert, or another QB that I forget whom, but who wouldn't.  

 

Here's a couple of interesting recent articles on Hopkins.  

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/deandre-hopkins-release-cardinals-contract-age/srkfypigejszgpeaehyqmxi3

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/05/30/inside-deandre-hopkins-release-options-bills-chiefs  

 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I said he's HURT a lot.   Not INJURED a lot.  

 

I don't think you are intending to create a straw man argument.........but you are. 

 

Hurt and injured are different things.

 

Ed is hurt a lot and when he has those hurts he disappears........and either of two things happen........excuses are made by observers/fans OR he gets knocked by them for not producing. 

I have mixed the words "playing hurt" Paying injured " many times.. and to be honest. your spot on

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I realize that you disagree.  these discussions wouldn't be much fun if everyone agreed with everyone else.  LOL  I was simply providing some basis for why I'm actually pretty bullish on Davis.  I will also say, he's one of the better playoff performers.  In fact, he's the only one that has single-handely won a playoff game for us in our last five playoff games, the one against KC the "13 Seconds" game.  Even Diggs doesn't have that distinction.  Had Davis not gone off in that game it likely would have ended more like the season prior in 2020.  

 

I'm very curious to see him play injury-free as well.  

 

I also don't understand this overemphasis on Hopkins.  Hopkins will be 31 this season, has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons and clearly hasn't been the same player since, but for all the talk about character on this team, he was also suspended last season for substance abuse.  And if we were to sign him after this Oliver signing, that would definitely be a sign of a "win now" scenario, but it would also question what they'd do with their trade-up 1st-Round pick Kincaid since both seem to fill a similar role.  

 

Davis still has ceiling at least, Hopkins has little if any.  If we sign Hopkins and win it all, fantastic.  But if we sign Hopkins and don't, ...  If we do, hopefully it's a performance-driven contract.  He's already said he'd like to play with Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, Herbert, or another QB that I forget whom, but who wouldn't.  

 

Here's a couple of interesting recent articles on Hopkins.  

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/deandre-hopkins-release-cardinals-contract-age/srkfypigejszgpeaehyqmxi3

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/05/30/inside-deandre-hopkins-release-options-bills-chiefs  

 

 

 

Other than opened up cap space, I do not know why we are equating this thread to Hopkins in any way. Davis plays hot/cold but we will see how this ends up  

[PBF81]

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I don't think his underlying analytics are that good.........but it's easy to just SAY they are and not back it up.........which you sorta' did when vaguely claiming he is now a 70% snap guy(even if that is a low bar as well).

 

It stands to reason that a guy who plays just over half of the snaps will be fresher and should be more productive on a per-play basis...........but he's not comparable to $20M types even on a per-snap basis even though those guys are doing a lot more heavy lifting.

 

Yeah.......he does need to up his counting stats but he also needs to be better on a per play basis and play a higher % of snaps.    The same argument could be made about Gabriel Davis and I guess there would be a lot of reasons to believe he will become a WR1..........I guess then it's very  for his agent to ask for 80% of a top 11 WR contract?

 

A very interesting comment.  

 

Oliver's topped out at 60% snap count, which was this past season.  One argument is that it's possible that his injuries arise from being smaller and outmuscled.  

 

I don't envision 70% for Oliver for several reasons.  First being all the depth that we've added, which if we don't use it, what was the point.  But moreover, that's not how McD seems to want to run the D.  Of course there's some confusion as to whether Frasier and McD's D philsophies aligned the same way in that manner, but I think it's safe to say that McD prefers the rotational approach.  

 

FWIW and to your point.  I think.  LOL  

 

 

9 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I have mixed the words "playing hurt" Paying injured " many times.. and to be honest. your spot on

Other than opened up cap space, I do not know why we are equating this thread to Hopkins in any way. Davis plays hot/cold but we will see how this ends up  

 

Indeed.  I just brought it up because there's speculation now that we made this move in order to open up the cap space for bringing Hopkins on board.  

 

In fact, from today ...  https://billswire.usatoday.com/2023/06/04/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-spoke-deandre-hopkins/  

 

If the referenced "lack of cap space" was the issue, and Oliver's contract made that available, ... 

 

And frankly, if that's the case, then it definitely screams out "win now," future cap issues be damned.  

 

 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by PBF81

[PrimeTime101]

13 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

A very interesting comment.  

 

Oliver's topped out at 60% snap count, which was this past season.  One argument is that it's possible that his injuries arise from being smaller and outmuscled.  

 

I don't envision 70% for Oliver for several reasons.  First being all the depth that we've added, which if we don't use it, what was the point.  But moreover, that's not how McD seems to want to run the D.  Of course there's some confusion as to whether Frasier and McD's D philsophies aligned the same way in that manner, but I think it's safe to say that McD prefers the rotational approach.  

 

FWIW and to your point.  I think.  LOL  

 

 

 

Indeed.  I just brought it up because there's speculation now that we made this move in order to open up the cap space for bringing Hopkins on board.  

 

In fact, from today ...  https://billswire.usatoday.com/2023/06/04/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-spoke-deandre-hopkins/  

 

If the referenced "lack of cap space" was the issue, and Oliver's contract made that available, ... 

 

And frankly, if that's the case, then it definitely screams out "win now," future cap issues be damned.  

 

I like having the conversations when it stays on topic. But what I enjoy about your work is at times, we all need to be educated right? because we can not possibly know it all. I like your work because at times... you learn a few things and change your tune.. Kind of like what I did about Oliver myself considering his playing hurt/injured. We all here to have the fun discussions and we all learn something new every day yes?

[Dr. Who]

22 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I realize that you disagree.  these discussions wouldn't be much fun if everyone agreed with everyone else.  LOL  I was simply providing some basis for why I'm actually pretty bullish on Davis.  I will also say, he's one of the better playoff performers.  In fact, he's the only one that has single-handely won a playoff game for us in our last five playoff games, the one against KC the "13 Seconds" game.  Even Diggs doesn't have that distinction.  Had Davis not gone off in that game it likely would have ended more like the season prior in 2020.  

 

I'm very curious to see him play injury-free as well.  

 

I also don't understand this overemphasis on Hopkins.  Hopkins will be 31 this season, has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons and clearly hasn't been the same player since, but for all the talk about character on this team, he was also suspended last season for substance abuse.  And if we were to sign him after this Oliver signing, that would definitely be a sign of a "win now" scenario, but it would also question what they'd do with their trade-up 1st-Round pick Kincaid since both seem to fill a similar role.  

 

Davis still has ceiling at least, Hopkins has little if any.  If we sign Hopkins and win it all, fantastic.  But if we sign Hopkins and don't, ...  If we do, hopefully it's a performance-driven contract.  He's already said he'd like to play with Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, Herbert, or another QB that I forget whom, but who wouldn't.  

 

Here's a couple of interesting recent articles on Hopkins.  

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/deandre-hopkins-release-cardinals-contract-age/srkfypigejszgpeaehyqmxi3

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/05/30/inside-deandre-hopkins-release-options-bills-chiefs  

 

 

 

Hopkins has lost a step, but I think he's still a superior WR2. He catches almost everything thrown his way and is dangerous all over the field. In my view, he's a significant improvement over Davis who would thrive as what I've been calling WR3, but apparently is WR4 in our system. I understand there are a significant number of folks who are skeptical about Hopkins. I don't deny the risk. I would take it, but I don't expect Beane to sign him. Any cap savings from the Oliver extension are more likely going to be used for in-season moves or possibly to bring in a veteran edge. 

[Coach Tuesday]

To the extent it adds to the discussion, they could’ve kept Harrison Phillips for about half of this in terms of AAV.  Slightly different players but perhaps a better allocation of resources given the substantial investment on the d line.  And I’m saying that as a big Oliver fan.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

32 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I don't think his underlying analytics are that good.........but it's easy to just SAY they are and not back it up.........which you sorta' did when vaguely claiming he is now a 70% snap guy(even if that is a low bar as well).

 

It stands to reason that a guy who plays just over half of the snaps will be fresher and should be more productive on a per-play basis...........but he's not comparable to $20M types even on a per-snap basis even though those guys are doing a lot more heavy lifting.

 

Yeah.......he does need to up his counting stats but he also needs to be better on a per play basis and play a higher % of snaps.    The same argument could be made about Gabriel Davis and I guess there would be a lot of reasons to believe he will become a WR1..........I guess then it's very  for his agent to ask for 80% of a top 11 WR contract?

 

Can't believe I agree with this guy about something 

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

We all here to have the fun discussions and we all learn something new every day yes?

 

You have me laughing here.  We are?   I'm not at all convinced about that.  LOL  

 

 

 

Humor is good too!!   

 

 

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Hopkins has lost a step, but I think he's still a superior WR2. He catches almost everything thrown his way and is dangerous all over the field. In my view, he's a significant improvement over Davis who would thrive as what I've been calling WR3, but apparently is WR4 in our system. I understand there are a significant number of folks who are skeptical about Hopkins. I don't deny the risk. I would take it, but I don't expect Beane to sign him. Any cap savings from the Oliver extension are more likely going to be used for in-season moves or possibly to bring in a veteran edge. 

 

Hopkins and Davis are not the same type of WRs though.  Hopkins would more move in on the catches of Kincaid or possibly Harty and Shakir, or even Sherfield.  He wouldn't take any from Diggs and again, he doesn't fill the role that Davis does either.  It would be a terrible look at this point if they tossed Shakir overboard.  Also, what of Shorter.  Too many WRs, not sure why they'd go after Hopkins unless they were in win-now mode.  Who knows, perhaps Pegs had a conversation with McBeane "explaining the importance of this season."   I guess we'll never know.  Let's see what happens re: this tomorrow.  

 

If we were to sign him my guess would be that he'd finish 3rd on the team in catches among WRs/TEs, ahead of both Knox and Kincaid, third among WRs behind both Diggs & Davis.  

 

 

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

This franchise is a joke. Ed “The Ghost” Oliver for 68 million. On its face, it’s a panic move. 

[Billl]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

Too many WRs, not sure why they'd go after Hopkins unless they were in win-now mode.

If there is one team in “win-now mode” this season, it’s the Bills.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

If there is one team in “win-now mode” this season, it’s the Bills.

 

The Jets immediately come to mind here.   🤷‍♂️

 

 

.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Augie

[MasterStrategist]

No offense to @BADOLBILZ, because i think he articulates well and has a good grasp of evaluating.  BUT...

 

Any contract extension is a bit of past production (to warrant the deal) and some prediction of future play (which none of us know).  We won't know the value of this extension for a few years.

 

What I do know....Beanes track record on FA DL is so-so to below average, and we're obviously debating one of his draft picks. 

 

However, his "extensions" have tended to pay off/value has been there.  I'm trying to think through his multiple deals:  Knox, Allen, Taron, Milano, Tre, Diggs, etc.  all have been solid/core players.

 

So I'll go with trusting Beane on his track record for now.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

13 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Hopkins and Davis are not the same type of WRs though.  Hopkins would more move in on the catches of Kincaid or possibly Harty and Shakir, or even Sherfield.  He wouldn't take any from Diggs and again, he doesn't fill the role that Davis does either.  It would be a terrible look at this point if they tossed Shakir overboard.  Also, what of Shorter.  Too many WRs, not sure why they'd go after Hopkins unless they were in win-now mode.  Who knows, perhaps Pegs had a conversation with McBeane "explaining the importance of this season."   I guess we'll never know.  Let's see what happens re: this tomorrow.  

 

If we were to sign him my guess would be that he'd finish 3rd on the team in catches among WRs/TEs, ahead of both Knox and Kincaid, third among WRs behind both Diggs & Davis.  

 

 

I don't fully accept your analysis, but perhaps I should have bolded the part where I said I don't expect Beane to sign him.

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

B+ contract for a C+ player …imo

 

At this point in his career Oliver has not proven to be anything other than a JAG…sorry

 

To me, B+ player means pro bowl- and that is certainly not Oliver…

 

 

Didn't Saffold make the Pro Bowl ?